All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[Matnum PI]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

[Bandito]

And, based on these numbers, in 14 days, we'll surpass China in deaths.

Well, Trump did indeed Make America Great Again ... for coronavirus.

DocBarrister

He sure did. That’s why he’s hitting 60 percent approval in the polls from how well he’s handled it. Enjoy your fear porn and fantasyland of Orange Man Bad. He’s going to be President through 2024. Enjoy your TDS.

Trump is at 60% approval rating for his handling of Covid because Americans generously want to give him the benefit of the doubt during this pandemic. The final numbers for the day in the US show 85,000 cases, 1300 deaths and 266 new deaths. The public will bear with him unless (which is looking more and more like until) the death numbers appear to be careening out of control. This is likely to happen if people fall prey to his Easter off to church and back to work lunacy. Trump would be far better off downplaying the greatness of his response (which he does for people like Bandito) and put his energy into getting federal aid to where it is most needed, and making social behavioral suggestions that his health advisors actually agree with.

Infinite thanks to those like a fan and C&S's wife and Red's daughter and all the great American health care workers and multitude of other people dedicating their time energy and money to making things better for others in this time of crisis.

Geez. Enough of the fear porn and TDS. Trump could cure cancer or this CHINESE virus and you’d still complain. Over half the cases are in NYC. Most the US isn’t under this pandemic. Trump doesn’t listen to liberal shills like you. That’s why America loves him. He puts liberals in their place. Finally, a president not afraid to stand up to the liberal media mob. Enjoy your TDS! I’ll enjoy not worrying about getting the virus and another 4 years of Trump.

We should start to call it Trump-Stupidity -Virus when our number of deaths from Covid 19 exceeds all other countries in the world, which it likely will if we continue to listen to Trump's advice and leadership.

Fear porn. Fear porn. Fear porn. Don’t drink the fish tank cleaner!! Trump has high approval according to the polls. He’s doing a great job keeping us informed and how to handle this Chinese virus. Did you forget it came from CHINA?! Your Trump Derangement is really embarrassing and frightening

[Peter Brown]

Random thought

I'm still shaking my head this morning at the concerted and overwhelming demand by the Left to remove this kid Ginn's post on Medium.

It's the ferocity and organization of such an effort, applauded by many here, which makes me wonder what the real deal is.

Medium posts based on data, interpreted incorrectly or 100% correctly, strike me as being such anodyne things in life. If a liberal writer posted a Medium post drawing from research that he said shows business owners to be fundamentally stupid, it wouldn't occur to me in a billion years to demand that it be withdrawn. I'd laugh at it, but it would not affect me in the least.

I'd love to have someone here (from the Left or Right) explain why this one post of Ginn's was such an affront that the Left demanded Medium take it down (though the post is now on over 1000 websites for anyone to read, critique, or applaud).

I guess I just do not understand this new world of book burning. Please explain and help a brother out.

[seacoaster]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

If you are talking about the recent testimony before Parliament, I think you and the wider media yesterday are mistaken; the projected outcomes have not really changed, according to the guy who gave the testimony:

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson

[MDlaxfan76]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

[jhu72]

There will be novels written about the sudden Canadian exodus from S Florida.

Lexington VA to Harrisburg PA last Sunday morning.

I would say, other than truck traffic, 40% were Quebec or Ontario license plates on Rt 81. Lots of RVs along the way heading North also.

Expecting a spike in Canada in about 5 days.

Based on the numbers I am seeing, that won't be much of a spike. Which is great, but hard to explain. A whole country of 35 million with fewer deaths across the entire first wave than the entire US has in a 12 hour period. I guess it is the blessings of low population density.

[6ftstick]

Sunday, February 2, 2020
CHINATOWN, Manhattan (WABC) -- Despite increasing fears of coronavirus in New York City, the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival will go on as scheduled next week.

The parade is scheduled for Feb. 9 at 1 p.m.

Democrat Elected officials are urging the public to take normal precautions against illness, but not to let fears concerning coronavirus stop them from participating in the event.

"I am here along with other elected officials to show support for Chinatown and for the Chinese community all across New York City, and we have heard reports that many businesses in Chinatown and in Flushing and in Sunset Park and in other parts of the city have seen a downturn in business since this news came out and this is really an important time of year because of Lunar New Year, a lot of these businesses count on an increase of business during Lunar New Year, and so we want to assure the public that we have the greatest health department in the world," NYC Council Speaker Corey Johnson said.

Democrat NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot:
✔
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus. https://on.nyc.gov/377LlcH

Democrat Mayor of New Orleans:
https://www.nola.com/collection_0497ac1 ... 554.html#1

That baztid Trump

[MDlaxfan76]

Random thought

I'm still shaking my head this morning at the concerted and overwhelming demand by the Left to remove this kid Ginn's post on Medium.

It's the ferocity and organization of such an effort, applauded by many here, which makes me wonder what the real deal is.

Medium posts based on data, interpreted incorrectly or 100% correctly, strike me as being such anodyne things in life. If a liberal writer posted a Medium post drawing from research that he said shows business owners to be fundamentally stupid, it wouldn't occur to me in a billion years to demand that it be withdrawn. I'd laugh at it, but it would not affect me in the least.

I'd love to have someone here (from the Left or Right) explain why this one post of Ginn's was such an affront that the Left demanded Medium take it down (though the post is now on over 1000 websites for anyone to read, critique, or applaud).

I guess I just do not understand this new world of book burning. Please explain and help a brother out.

Asked and answered (by others, PB) again and again and again.
Not sure why you keep bringing it up, at least here on this thread.
It's tedious.

I respectfully suggest you take this question to the Progressive Ideology thread as it sounds like that's what you want to critique, not actually have a rational discussion of CV-19 in any fresh way.

Challenging "the Left" and their general dismissiveness is just fine, it's just not relevant here.

Apparently Ginn's analysis has serious flaws and is already being proven on the ground to be wrong-headed. If you have something fresh to add on that topic otherwise, have at it.

Of course, that's just my opinion. Be well.

[MDlaxfan76]

There will be novels written about the sudden Canadian exodus from S Florida.

Lexington VA to Harrisburg PA last Sunday morning.

I would say, other than truck traffic, 40% were Quebec or Ontario license plates on Rt 81. Lots of RVs along the way heading North also.

Expecting a spike in Canada in about 5 days.

Based on the numbers I am seeing, that won't be much of a spike. Which is great, but hard to explain. A whole country of 35 million with fewer deaths across the entire first wave than the entire US has in a 12 hour period. I guess it is the blessings of low population density.

Depends on the dispersion of any carriers, their behaviors when they get there and that of others around them. Lower density will help, but Toronto, Ontario etc are certainly not immune from blooms if people don't social distance, and if blooms happen there are going to be very few communities spared. But it might not be until next fall.

[MDlaxfan76]

Sunday, February 2, 2020
CHINATOWN, Manhattan (WABC) -- Despite increasing fears of coronavirus in New York City, the Chinatown Lunar New Year Parade and Festival will go on as scheduled next week.

The parade is scheduled for Feb. 9 at 1 p.m.

Democrat Elected officials are urging the public to take normal precautions against illness, but not to let fears concerning coronavirus stop them from participating in the event.

"I am here along with other elected officials to show support for Chinatown and for the Chinese community all across New York City, and we have heard reports that many businesses in Chinatown and in Flushing and in Sunset Park and in other parts of the city have seen a downturn in business since this news came out and this is really an important time of year because of Lunar New Year, a lot of these businesses count on an increase of business during Lunar New Year, and so we want to assure the public that we have the greatest health department in the world," NYC Council Speaker Corey Johnson said.

Democrat NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot:
✔
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus. https://on.nyc.gov/377LlcH

Democrat Mayor of New Orleans:
https://www.nola.com/collection_0497ac1 ... 554.html#1

That baztid Trump

Yup, a lot of arrogance and moneyed interests have led to serious mistakes. Trump certainly ain't the only one to have been arrogant and slow to recognize the severity.

But he's the only POTUS receiving daily intelligence briefings...

[jhu72]

You do realize that is pretty low for a president in a national emergency, right?

That's exactly right. During a crisis, approval numbers sky rocket. 60% is extremely low.

… and what happens as the crisis drags on for months??

[Brooklyn]

Pastor Who Claimed Covid-19 ‘Hysteria’ Was Plot Against Trump Dies From Virus


https://www.patheos.com/blogs/progressi ... we1pF2V0Hk


Religious Ignorance Kills: Landon Spradlin, a Virginia pastor who claimed the “mass hysteria” around the coronavirus pandemic was part of a media plot against Trump, has died from the virus.

ABC News reports:

Landon Spradlin’s family never got to say goodbye.

The 66-year-old father and husband from Virginia died due to complications from COVID-19 on Wednesday morning in North Carolina.

While on the way home from a mission trip, Spradlin collapsed and was taken to a hospital in Concord, North Carolina. He was eventually put on a ventilator as his condition worsened.

According to reports, Spradlin, a 66-year-old Christian “musical evangelist,” fell ill while on a missionary trip to New Orleans with his wife.

Friendly Atheist reports Spaldrin went to New Orleans to “wash it from its Sin and debauchery.”


more





There's an old tale which says, God punishes. Well, maybe some day some folks will learn to keep a more open mind.

[calourie]

And, based on these numbers, in 14 days, we'll surpass China in deaths.

Well, Trump did indeed Make America Great Again ... for coronavirus.

DocBarrister

He sure did. That’s why he’s hitting 60 percent approval in the polls from how well he’s handled it. Enjoy your fear porn and fantasyland of Orange Man Bad. He’s going to be President through 2024. Enjoy your TDS.

Trump is at 60% approval rating for his handling of Covid because Americans generously want to give him the benefit of the doubt during this pandemic. The final numbers for the day in the US show 85,000 cases, 1300 deaths and 266 new deaths. The public will bear with him unless (which is looking more and more like until) the death numbers appear to be careening out of control. This is likely to happen if people fall prey to his Easter off to church and back to work lunacy. Trump would be far better off downplaying the greatness of his response (which he does for people like Bandito) and put his energy into getting federal aid to where it is most needed, and making social behavioral suggestions that his health advisors actually agree with.

Infinite thanks to those like a fan and C&S's wife and Red's daughter and all the great American health care workers and multitude of other people dedicating their time energy and money to making things better for others in this time of crisis.

Geez. Enough of the fear porn and TDS. Trump could cure cancer or this CHINESE virus and you’d still complain. Over half the cases are in NYC. Most the US isn’t under this pandemic. Trump doesn’t listen to liberal shills like you. That’s why America loves him. He puts liberals in their place. Finally, a president not afraid to stand up to the liberal media mob. Enjoy your TDS! I’ll enjoy not worrying about getting the virus and another 4 years of Trump.

We should start to call it Trump-Stupidity -Virus when our number of deaths from Covid 19 exceeds all other countries in the world, which it likely will if we continue to listen to Trump's advice and leadership.

Fear porn. Fear porn. Fear porn. Don’t drink the fish tank cleaner!! Trump has high approval according to the polls. He’s doing a great job keeping us informed and how to handle this Chinese virus. Did you forget it came from CHINA?! Your Trump Derangement is really embarrassing and frightening

Patience, Grasshopper. We will see how this all works out. I might be wrong, and so might you. Most of us will get through this crisis one way or the other. Good luck and good health to all.

[RedFromMI]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

[Bart]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

If you are talking about the recent testimony before Parliament, I think you and the wider media yesterday are mistaken; the projected outcomes have not really changed, according to the guy who gave the testimony:

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson

"3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand). "...is is the quote from Dr Ferguson. Are we at a point here or in the UK that there are NO social distancing protocols in place? Those projected outcomes are without any social distancing, or am I reading that wrong?

He certainly does not indicate less social distancing, as would I as an armchair epidemiologist but he is also not predicting the huge loss of life that would have been seen with out the social distancing. Or am I wrong on that interpretation?

[MDlaxfan76]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

Worth the read. Not sure those with reading comprehension issues or disdain for experts will bother, though.

[Bart]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

Thanks, that is interesting indeed.

[Bart]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

Thanks, that is interesting indeed. This is if there is no seasonality to the virus, no evidence there is or isn't at this point.

[MDlaxfan76]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

If you are talking about the recent testimony before Parliament, I think you and the wider media yesterday are mistaken; the projected outcomes have not really changed, according to the guy who gave the testimony:

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson

"3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand). "...is is the quote from Dr Ferguson. Are we at a point here or in the UK that there are NO social distancing protocols in place? Those projected outcomes are without any social distancing, or am I reading that wrong?

He certainly does not indicate less social distancing, as would I as an armchair epidemiologist but he is also not predicting the huge loss of life that would have been seen with out the social distancing. Or am I wrong on that interpretation?

You are correct.
No social distancing, massive deaths.

With intense social distancing, way less.

Not really that difficult to understand, unless one is truly stupid or has a partisan agenda to simply support Trump no matter what.

[MDlaxfan76]

Your quoting of my response without the reference video is not cool. You have once again, played judge, jury, and shot the messenger. The entire point of the video reference, was to discuss REAL DATA and MODELS from the UK that have significantly changed their projected outcomes. Why you continually want to find fault in everything befuddles me.

People already saw it and can see it again by scrolling up. we don't need exact quotes of posts, especially multiple posts. Just reminders.

Thanks.

That was indeed my intent youth.
No need to copy everything again and again.

But thanks for posting.
Not sure what aspect of my post was not appropriately responsive, much less "shot the messenger" if you mean you, youth. Certainly not intended.

I do think she was quite misleading or actually out of touch on the statement about beds and vents. Not sure which, or why.

On the second, I just pointed out the nuance of her statement as to timing and the reality of what she's saying. IE It won't that bad because we're actually doing something to prevent it.

But the conclusion shouldn't be to not worry about the challenge, but rather to stay the course.

I did take a 'shot' at anyone who mis-reads this to think the CV-19 should just be treated like another flu, just grind through it. There have been some rather stupid posts to that effect and I did challenge that ridiculous position...I haven't read you as being amongst that crowd, youth.

Hope you aren't.

How about this: (Twitter last night)


Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. [email protected] Director @CCDD_HSPH

Boston, MA · hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…

Tonight #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKissler based on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing.

Dr. Birx's statements today https://t.co/AAff8ThmuF indicated that "when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

True. We are near the beginning of the epidemic, with most people still susceptible. China and Korea have suppressed transmission by massive testing, combined in China with far more intense distancing than here and in Korea with significant distancing https://t.co/3xLNnFuGG7

If our social distancing works it is possible we will not just flatten the curve, but get a decline in cases. Under a best-case scenario, we will keep that policy in place long enough to get down to very, very few cases domestically.

If at the same time we ramp up testing capacity and the ability to trace contacts, in a very best-case scenario, we might conceivably be able to turn to a Korea- or Singapore-style mix of less intense distancing combined with super-intense contact tracing, isolation, quarantine

That will not be easy with this virus as our @CCDD_HSPH analysis has shown https://t.co/xmC114peJW but as some (mainly island) countries have shown, it may be just possible. We should do everything we can to reach for this goal, even if it is unattainable.

But here's why it is a best-case, likely unattainable scenario. 1) We have not proven that US-style social distancing can produce R_effective<1 (declining case numbers). On this I'm hopeful, but it's a hope not a fact.

2) we remain woefully behind on testing capacity, especially in many parts of the country. Like a forest fire, intense control in one place fails if there are sparks from other places. We must strengthen the weak links. But test reagents, swabs, PPE remain in short supply.

Solving the testing problems will not be easy, despite heroic local and state efforts to make up for the feckless federal efforts on this front. Supply chains are delicate and it may not be possible to come from behind and establish Korea-level testing capacity.

3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today reuters.com/article/us-hea… we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://t.co/2N3skKoK22 and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://t.co/2K6c3DoUXS

So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the US https://t.co/aNnoduaR3O

That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

From an expert, but my bolding...

Thanks, that is interesting indeed. This is if there is no seasonality to the virus, no evidence there is or isn't at this point.

seasonality (sunlight not heat) would indeed help some slow down, potentially enough to catch up with testing, tracing capacity...but only if we recognize that the fall will be coming very soon and prepare feverishly. Apparently that's what happened in the 1918 bug, the fall was much worse than the original outbreak.