The Nation's Financial Condition

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Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

LandM wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:05 am C&S,
I think Colleen took over just a few years ago. The local lore is Danny built off what his dad's idea was. Either way, I drive by the organic farm on my way into town. IMHO, waste of good property......but so was Danny's ex-wife, tearing down a multi-million dollar home for new digs right around the corner, well down the street. IMHO, that is when you have too much money and flipping the bird. There are three families in Canandaigua, Wegmans, Galisono, and Sands. My good friend is the chief pilot for the Sands boys, amazing what you can stuff in a plane - another legacy family where the kids did not f'it up.

Far,
Not disagreeing with your analogy, but during the hey day of the dotcom.....wow nellie, wild times. The credit crisis was almost as bad. People were selling off an idea on a napkin.

To clarify, yes everyone has an EBITDA, some are positive and some are negative. What is the multiple for a negative EBITDA, % of revenue? Nope some future value that most of the times does not work.

IMHO you can hide in a bed or go live your life. Time for the daily walk.
It could be a multiple of revenue, broker dealers, for example, trade off a multiple of T-12 revenue, banks often trade off a multiple of tangible book value. But you are missing the entire point which was I was suggesting ways to create parameters around who gets support from the govt and using EBITDA as a CAP, not a floor. So if you were unprofitable you’d clearly qualify (unless there were other restrictions like, say, over 50% of last years revenues came from give subsidies). So EBITDA would be able to qualify if you were under some threshold. That’s when it was first brought up and you were saying EBITDA doesn’t matter at all (to anyone). But given you acknowledge that EBITDA is available to measure you’d agree that we could use it as a ceiling for who gets support since we’d be using a positive number as the threshold?

Think it was Holmes that had it saying some companies there’s other considerations and I had added it might be to corner a market (Jack Henry/Silverlake, for example if you know banking software), or obtain a large key customer, maybe the top in a vertical one is trying to break into. They will project our positive operating earnings and cash flow, Amazon did in their Whole Foods deal (which by the way Amazon sits on so much cash that even if the expected ROE was below current operations it’s better than the return on their cash and they get to move into an entire new market for them with unobservable potential upside).
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Matnum PI wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:18 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:11 am Olympics are a tv show. Not that big a deal if they disappeared altogether at this stage.
????? Any more than all sporting events are TV shows?
Nope but we lost those already.

May been the NBA finals which is pretty global.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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Matnum PI
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Matnum PI »

I'm still not following but that's OK...
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Bart
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Bart »

LandM wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:05 am C&S,
I think Colleen took over just a few years ago. The local lore is Danny built off what his dad's idea was. Either way, I drive by the organic farm on my way into town. IMHO, waste of good property......but so was Danny's ex-wife, tearing down a multi-million dollar home for new digs right around the corner, well down the street. IMHO, that is when you have too much money and flipping the bird. There are three families in Canandaigua, Wegmans, Galisono, and Sands. My good friend is the chief pilot for the Sands boys, amazing what you can stuff in a plane - another legacy family where the kids did not f'it up.
Danny's ex's property has two houses on it now. One is hers and the other is the daughters. She has been at that location for a very long time. The organic farm is nice and I would rather have it that than a bunch of houses, like at Bristol Harbor. The real kicker is that Danny put a fence around the entirety of the old Miller Nursurey, ruined a whole lot of great deer hunting there for the shmoes who live out that way. Golisano is not in any way a Canandaigua person, heck is summer pad is in South Bristol

IMHO you can hide in a bed or go live your life. Time for the daily walk.

I really do not understand this. Care to explain it further? Is it ok to just go around with out any notion of social distancing?
seacoaster
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by seacoaster »

RedFromMI wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:32 am
seacoaster wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:55 am The political system is not built for this kind of crisis, and the rancor of the weekend and yesterday was to be expected. Aim your fire at Democrats? Sure, but remember that McConnell didn't even get his entire caucus to back the bill he proposed. From the Post article this AM:

"Democrats have argued that the Senate GOP bill is disproportionately tilted toward helping companies and needs to extend more benefits to families and health-care providers. Republicans have countered that the measure offers unprecedented financial assistance to the entire economy and needs to be passed before more people lose their jobs. Some economists have projected that more than 3 million people were laid off last week as businesses and consumers pulled back, and those numbers are only expected to grow.

The vote Monday was 49 to 46, well short of the 60-vote threshold needed to advance the legislation for a final debate."

Republicans proposed a bad bill; Democrats countered, with one from the house of Congress that appropriates the money, that is flawed. The push and pull is not "bad," so much as it is to be expected. They'll pass a bill today that will be seriously imperfect, and will result in a series of hole-plugging bills over the next few weeks. It won't be pretty.

Meanwhile, the Chief Ninkompoop wants everyone to go back to work and stop all this palaver about distancing...so Eric has better cash flow.

https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby
I posted his (Inglesby) entire thread in the Coronavirus area.

Not so sure there will be the series of hole-plugging bills to follow, although I expect something will pass today. I think McConnell tried to pull a fast one (taking out some things the Ds had thought there was previous agreement on) since he got caught (politically) with his pants down last week without a bill and a House out of town so had no choice of passing Pelosi's version of the first round. Ds came back with a loaded response to make sure the Rs knew they were not as stupid as McConnell wanted to make them out as.

McConnell is in a bit of a bind as his caucus (without electronic voting) is shrinking as we speak due to self-quarantine...
Thanks Red. The Inglesby thread was interesting; thanks for posting it over on the other thread.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Matnum PI wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:28 am I'm still not following but that's OK...
The Olympics get a lot more attention and care as if we haven’t cheated, skipped them over politics, had Sochi, dirty IOC, etc. what it was 60-70yrs abo and what it is now are not the same thing. And the Winter Olympics especially, but it’s also moved so far away from the original idea when we’re talking about adding x games to it that I don’t care about it anymore. We didn’t have pros, then we did. Then a lot stopped wanting to show, look at more current BB teams compared w the dream team. It’s not each country’s best vs other. And if one wants to drop a handful of sports like BB it would likely cease to be economically attractive to broadcasters. I think most have lost money bidding up the rights anyways. And if it’s off tv everyone really stops caring.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
LandM
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by LandM »

Now is a time to buy.......$100 million raised - belly up boys
seacoaster
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by seacoaster »

Posted just a few minutes ago:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-polic ... -stimulus/

"The White House has agreed to allow enhanced scrutiny over a massive loan program that is a centerpiece of the Senate’s $2 trillion coronavirus economic package, two people briefed on the discussions said, taking steps to address a major Democratic concern and potentially pave the way for a vote by Tuesday night.

“I think there is real optimism that we could get something done in the next few hours," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said on CNBC Tuesday morning.

The Senate bill allows the Treasury Department to extend $500 billion in loans and loan guarantees to try and blunt the virus’s economic impact. Of that amount, $425 billion is supposed to go to businesses, cities, and states. Another $50 billion would go to passenger airlines, $8 billion more for cargo airlines, and an additional $17 billion would be directed for firms that are deemed important to national security.

President Trump has already said where he wants some of the money to go, promising assistance to cruise ship companies, for example, that have operations in Miami. And when he was asked Monday evening who would perform oversight of the program, Trump responded “I’ll be the oversight.”

But during closed-door negotiations on Capitol Hill, White House officials have agreed to allow an independent inspector general and an oversight board to scrutinize the lending decisions, said the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the status of deliberations.

The most recent precedent for this is the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program that was created during the financial crisis in 2008. To oversee TARP, Congress created an independent inspector general, a regulatory oversight board, and a congressional oversight panel. Over the course of several years, investigations uncovered numerous cases of fraud at large and small companies as firms sought to obtain taxpayer money through various programs.

The precise oversight structure for the new lending program could not be determined, and it was also unclear whether the oversight structure would be as robust as what was created during TARP. By Monday evening, a number of Republicans were on board with making changes to win Democratic support.

“Could we have more transparency on this federal facility program? Sure, absolutely, I would be very supportive,” Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said on a Senate floor speech Monday night.

The concession came as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) negotiated until nearly midnight on Monday at the Capitol, updating President Trump frequently and sounding more optimistic than they have through days of rocky talks."
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Matnum PI
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Matnum PI »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:50 am Olympics...
Agreed. For most every event, there's a Tournament outside of the Olympics that crowns a Champion.
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LandM
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by LandM »

Bart,
Galisono is part of the lake and yes it is past Bristol and yes he hates geese pooping on his yard. But his partner who know one knows he he had I believe is before Bristol. The three families control this town.
Best
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

LandM wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:51 am Now is a time to buy.......$100 million raised - belly up boys
If you buy a $100mm or bourbon I’m coming to your house, virus be damned. Should be enough for me to bathe in it and kill it right :)? Heading to upstate NY this afternoon anyway for a few weeks and will be bored out of my mind, what’s two more hours.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Couple stories in WSJ today (I haven’t figured out how to copy text on my phone like a moron so apologies for paywall)

PMI (purchasing mgrs index) dropped from 49.6 to 40.5, lowest level since crisis)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronaviru ... 88?mod=mhp

Ratings agencies downgrading borrowers (corporations and LLC/SPEs that hold pools of various loans) w over 100 by S&P since virus began. Agencies are a joke. When they’re wrong they say “hey we rate through a business cycle” then will knee jerk react here without possibly knowing how things will look on the other side of this. If they were truly circumspect they wouldn’t downgrade now and wait to see what govt action occurs and have a little more visibility on the backside of this. Then again bonds trade ahead of ratings changes all the time, the market has concluded their own system ultimately.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-downg ... 00?mod=mhp
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Bart
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Bart »

LandM wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:17 am Bart,
Galisono is part of the lake and yes it is past Bristol and yes he hates geese pooping on his yard. But his partner who know one knows he he had I believe is before Bristol. The three families control this town.
Best
his partner passed away several years ago. His partners wife lives on the lake. Just look for the house with all the crap in the yard by the indoor pool that is on the lake just south of Wells Curtis Road. Really can't miss it.

Golisano has very little to do with anything in Canandaigua. His beef is with South Bristol. They seem to be adding linear feet to his lake front from all the goose Sczhit in his yard.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

From one of the larger liquidation and restructuring companies, Hilco:

https://marketing.hilcoglobal.com/acton ... r-covid-19
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:08 pm From one of the larger liquidation and restructuring companies, Hilco:

https://marketing.hilcoglobal.com/acton ... r-covid-19
Thanks for posting.
“I wish you would!”
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Matnum PI
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Matnum PI »

This may have already spoken to previously but...
Consumers stop going to retailers, retailers are short cash for building owners, building owners are short cash for banks. and, so to speak, the buck stops there. if *everyone*, banks included, said, we're going to take a TBD-length Timeout, all suffer equally. No? Why isn't this being proposed as a solution? or maybe it is but I haven't heard it.
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holmes435
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by holmes435 »

Matnum PI wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:36 pm This may have already spoken to previously but...
Consumers stop going to retailers, retailers are short cash for building owners, building owners are short cash for banks. and, so to speak, the buck stops there. if *everyone*, banks included, said, we're going to take a TBD-length Timeout, all suffer equally. No? Why isn't this being proposed as a solution? or maybe it is but I haven't heard it.
Denmark is trying a version of that, with a huge economic aid package as well. We'll see how it turns out vs. policies in other countries:

Denmark’s Idea Could Help the World Avoid a Great Depression: “We are freezing the economy.”
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

The most leveraged need the cash the most. That’s ultimately the banks, who run 8-12:1 when you include deposits (which are borrowings). And they aren’t very liquid with in on avg 10% of their assets liquid. On pg 7 of the fdic profile report it shows earning assets/assets (loans and securities) of around 90%. Securities to assets is somewhere in the 10-15% range nationally and their mismarked so figure they’d sell for 80% of book and that’s all the liquidity they have. Overhead expense is 2-3% of assets and hard to reduce much at all, in fact with deleveraging and shrinkage of balance sheets that will occur that % will increase (and reduce profitability). So the banks had already reduced liquidity and don’t mark to market their loan book (a new rule supposed to take effect this year called CECL was supposed to get at that).

But if we’re talking liquidity vs solvency (pretty much the same thing for banks/financials vs other businesses) they’re the ones who will need cash flow quickest in some ways. The key point here is that if a bank has $1Bn in assets, they have employee and rent expenses themselves that equal $1.5mm-$2.5mm/mo. A $1bn asset bank wou la be in one, maybe two states and not have more than maybe 20 branches for sense of scale.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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RedFromMI
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by RedFromMI »

Agreement may be near:

(article containing explanation of what seems to be in bill)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-polic ... -stimulus/

Ds get oversight of loans to biz, extra boost for unemployment benefits...

Rs get apparently some further farm relief (over tariff impact)
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youthathletics
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

RedFromMI wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm Agreement may be near:

(article containing explanation of what seems to be in bill)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-polic ... -stimulus/

Ds get oversight of loans to biz, extra boost for unemployment benefits...

Rs get apparently some further farm relief (over tariff impact)
Damn crooks. "Never let a crisis go to waste" couldn't be any more accurate.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
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