All things CoronaVirus

[Andersen]

Chairmanofthe Board wrote:

im over the whole smart thing. how about someone honest, or not conflicted.

Honesty is essential. However, I don't think its as much about "being smart" as it is training and experience.

I'd like to think I'm smart enough to be an X-Ray Technician, a Tub Boat Captain or a Chef, but I don't have the training or experience.

[MDlaxfan76]

The number of serious and critical cases has made a large jump up to 708 today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

with 178 Recovered and 349 deaths.

26.9k total cases (detected), 25.6K active, "mild" as in not yet serious.
Note, many of those "mild" do need hospitalization.

Roughly 16% of all cases do need hospitalization, though it may be half that rate if we include the likely undetected cases.

NYC's hospitals will look like Italy in 10 days.

That sounds like fuzzy math.
What if the undetected cases were 10 times the detected cases, would it just be half that?

If you’re still downplaying the seriousness of this crisis, then you need to stop.

DocBarrister

That is pretty funny.

Cooter, I'm not going to make any assumptions about your intent.
Forgive Doc, he's very understandably po'd by all the downplaying of the crisis too many are still doing..it really will cost lives to do so.

Me too.

So, I'll just try to understand your point/question.

What did you find 'fuzzy' about my post?
Certainly I'm making approximations, but the patterns around the world look pretty consistent, within ranges.

And the trajectory of NY, especially NYC, is very steep. If anywhere near the range of hospitalization experienced in Italy (and so far in NY), they will be overwhelmed in less than 2 weeks.

And the death rate will grow under these conditions as people who might well have survived with a ventilator won't have access.

Or are you talking about the % of hospitalizations?
Sure, if the undetected have been 10X across the world of those hospitalized (rather than the 2X assumption I made), the % of hospitalized would be lower. But does that matter if the comparative stat is on the detected cases? If that is within range of the experience across the world, then the problem is the same.

5,000 healthcare workers with COVID-19 in Italy now. Out of PPE.

[MDlaxfan76]

The United States is now at over 32,000 confirmed cases and over 400 deaths.

We are on a trajectory to surpass China in both confirmed cases and deaths.

There really is no excuse for that. The Trump administration’s gross negligence is going to cost the United States hundreds of thousands of casualties that could have been avoided, including potentially thousands of additional deaths that may have been prevented.

And Trump is writing Kim Jong Un to offer help?!?

Look at Italy. That may be us in a few weeks on a much larger scale unless the Trump administration gets its act together.

DocBarrister

We’re discussing dying Americans and you post that gif?

DocBarrister

Indeed, we are discussing dying Americans, and all you want to do is be a backseat driver. I say it again.....using your logic, e-v-e-r-y leader in the world has the same darned problem.....and you sit back and criticize only one man.

Last time I checked, there is only one President of the United States.

Governors of both parties are asking the federal government to do more. Trump needs to do more. That’s not a Democratic or Republican plea, it’s an American one.

DocBarrister

Your credibility has been shot with your endless ‘Republicans are racist POS’s’.

Baloney, PB.
Please stop with this.

[ChairmanOfTheBoard]

Chairmanofthe Board wrote:

im over the whole smart thing. how about someone honest, or not conflicted.

Honesty is essential. However, I don't think its as much about "being smart" as it is training and experience.

I'd like to think I'm smart enough to be an X-Ray Technician, a Tub Boat Captain or a Chef, but I don't have the training or experience.

all true but saying that experience can mean (emphasis "can") a washington insider.

(as we find out that even the outsiders have conflicts!)

[jhu72]

3/21/2020 per capita numbers (past 24 hrs from roughly 7:30 3/20/20 pm to 7:30 pm 3/21/20)

Interesting information follows:

US Cases per Capita --> 7.7 per 100,000
US Deaths per Capita --> .9 per million

States with highest per capita infection (per 100,000)
--> New York 60.2; 41% higher than yesterday's rate
--> Washington 23.6; 18% higher than yesterday's rate
--> New Jersey 14.9; 16% higher than yesterday's rate
--> Louisiana 12.6; 9% higher than yesterday's rate
--> District of Columbia 10.9; 8% higher that yesterday's rate

Only 10 states have death rates of more than 1 per million (2 new since yesterday)
--> Washington 12.3 per million
--> Vermont 3.2 per million
--> Louisiana 3.4 per million
--> New York 3.1 per million
--> District of Columbia 1.4 per million
--> New Jersey 1.8 per million
--> Georgia 1.3 per million
--> Oregon 1.2 per million
--> Connecticut 1.1 per million
--> South Dakota 1.1 per million

US deaths in the last 24 hours is 25% greater than the deaths for the previous 24 hours
US new cases in the last 24 hours is 34% greater than the new cases in the previous 24 hours

Four new states have joined the club, recording their first death in the past 24 hours
--> Arizona
--> Tennessee
--> Minnesota
--> West Virginia (this actually happened a week ago, but WV testing more screwed up then national testing)

Notes:
-- The growth rate of everything seems to have slowed. I am not sure this is due to a real slowdown in growth, which would be great; OR a slowdown in weekend reporting (some states have not changed numbers since Friday); OR a reflection of government change in testing policy, previously noted
-- New Jersey passed Louisiana in both deaths per capita and infections per capita
-- New York, Washington State, New Jersey and Louisiana remain the big stories in infections. California, Texas and Florida are so large that something serious could go on in a limited area, and barely impact state statistics.

[Peter Brown]

3) have the humility to listen to others.

You didn't answer my question about the plane.

Maintenance/Engineering: every aspect of work performed in this regard is signed off multiple times by line managers or senior engineers. This redundant QC process is a direct result of not trusting one person to be THE expert. Everything is team-oriented and team-produced.

Pilots: the best pilot can no longer compete with auto-pilot. And that capability spread grows wider every day. Reason? Because an auto pilot system can simultaneously and with no failure rate calculate hundreds of variable inputs. Humans can not. (Cirrus’ Vision Jet now has a Safe Return Burton that anyone reading this can push and the plane will land itself safely every time, no pilot necessary).

Aviation is probably the most glaring industry example of why ‘expertise’ is easily debunked. Not one person can be ‘expert’ at such a complex system. The system is the expert.

Auto pilot is great until a pitot tube freezes up and the auto pilot disengages at an inopportune time because it can’t handle the conflicting data.

I used to do a lot of aviation litigation. Learned the same thing as I did in medicine: small failures can have catastrophic results.

Whether it’s a microscopic arterial plaque triggering a fatal thrombotic cascade or a small switch failure causing a helicopter to literally slice itself in half, complex systems can be brought down by the smallest things.

Coronavirus is just a different variant of that.

DocBarrister

You can also drown in a sink if you’re not too careful.

The odds of dying in air and space transport incidents, which include private flights and air taxis, are 1 in 11,000 and trending wider every year. That’s almost four times better chances than you meeting your fate by choking on food.

[ardilla secreta]

The Senate gym is still open and Rand Paul was in the pool this morning. What is wrong with these knuckleheads?

[Trinity]

Rand Paul, a doctor, goes to the last open gym in DC while waiting for his results.
Pretty amazing, even for Rand.

[Farfromgeneva]

3) have the humility to listen to others.

You didn't answer my question about the plane.

Maintenance/Engineering: every aspect of work performed in this regard is signed off multiple times by line managers or senior engineers. This redundant QC process is a direct result of not trusting one person to be THE expert. Everything is team-oriented and team-produced.

Pilots: the best pilot can no longer compete with auto-pilot. And that capability spread grows wider every day. Reason? Because an auto pilot system can simultaneously and with no failure rate calculate hundreds of variable inputs. Humans can not. (Cirrus’ Vision Jet now has a Safe Return Burton that anyone reading this can push and the plane will land itself safely every time, no pilot necessary).

Aviation is probably the most glaring industry example of why ‘expertise’ is easily debunked. Not one person can be ‘expert’ at such a complex system. The system is the expert.

Auto pilot is great until a pitot tube freezes up and the auto pilot disengages at an inopportune time because it can’t handle the conflicting data.

I used to do a lot of aviation litigation. Learned the same thing as I did in medicine: small failures can have catastrophic results.

Whether it’s a microscopic arterial plaque triggering a fatal thrombotic cascade or a small switch failure causing a helicopter to literally slice itself in half, complex systems can be brought down by the smallest things.

Coronavirus is just a different variant of that.

DocBarrister

You can also drown in a sink if you’re not too careful.

The odds of dying in air and space transport incidents, which include private flights and air taxis, are 1 in 11,000 and trending wider every year. That’s almost four times better chances than you meeting your fate by choking on food.

Are we supposed to trust you because you have some domain knowledge, or is it cool if I double check your information with a German philosophy professor at Emory who lives down the block to confirm or reject your expertise?

[Peter Brown]

3) have the humility to listen to others.

You didn't answer my question about the plane.

Maintenance/Engineering: every aspect of work performed in this regard is signed off multiple times by line managers or senior engineers. This redundant QC process is a direct result of not trusting one person to be THE expert. Everything is team-oriented and team-produced.

Pilots: the best pilot can no longer compete with auto-pilot. And that capability spread grows wider every day. Reason? Because an auto pilot system can simultaneously and with no failure rate calculate hundreds of variable inputs. Humans can not. (Cirrus’ Vision Jet now has a Safe Return Burton that anyone reading this can push and the plane will land itself safely every time, no pilot necessary).

Aviation is probably the most glaring industry example of why ‘expertise’ is easily debunked. Not one person can be ‘expert’ at such a complex system. The system is the expert.

Auto pilot is great until a pitot tube freezes up and the auto pilot disengages at an inopportune time because it can’t handle the conflicting data.

I used to do a lot of aviation litigation. Learned the same thing as I did in medicine: small failures can have catastrophic results.

Whether it’s a microscopic arterial plaque triggering a fatal thrombotic cascade or a small switch failure causing a helicopter to literally slice itself in half, complex systems can be brought down by the smallest things.

Coronavirus is just a different variant of that.

DocBarrister

You can also drown in a sink if you’re not too careful.

The odds of dying in air and space transport incidents, which include private flights and air taxis, are 1 in 11,000 and trending wider every year. That’s almost four times better chances than you meeting your fate by choking on food.

Are we supposed to trust you because you have some domain knowledge, or is it cool if I double check your information with a German philosophy professor at Emory who lives down the block to confirm or reject your expertise?

If only you were making the point you think you’re making. Unfortunately, I’d be the first to tell you to get a second or third or fourth opinion. I may think I know what I know, but more importantly, I know enough to always doubt myself. You shouldn’t reflexively believe my defense of my industry. I’m invested in the outcome.

[old salt]

New "new cases" number for the US on the worldometers site show 14,550 today with the previous high having been 5604 two days ago. Looks like vastly increased testing is kicking in which should end up being a very good thing for identifying and isolating. Nevertheless even if the 14,000 number holds steady going forth, which logic tells us is unrealistically optimistic, we will pass China as the country with the most cases by the end of this coming week. Assuming it will take us at the very least three weeks to peak, using the same optimistic no increase in rate of spread, we will be looking at at least 300,000 cases by then. Right now the numbers show a 1% death rate in the US. Using that figure points to 30,000 or so deaths in the US by in that timeframe. Outside of discovering that the Hydrocloroquine-azithromicene malaria drug works a miracle, any discussion of this crisis ignoring the trending numbers looks like it will rapidly fall under the category of fake news.

It depends on when the curve begins to flatten. We'll also likely have to limit testing, due to temporary PPE shortages.

Since we should be hunkering down nationwide anyway, voluntary or mandatory, testing is not as critical as PPE.

How soon do you guess the curve will flatten, Salty? Current trends, referencing the trending histories in other countries who were impacted earlier than us suggest that 3 weeks would be optimistic. I would be delighted for our situation to be mercifully benign and have it happen even sooner. Hope for the best prepare for the worst.

PS I would point out that I dial into worldometers site on a regular basis, and their numbers do jump around a bit. Right now they have the new cases in the US AT 8,000+. The 14,500 number reported earlier today looks to have been an accounting error lumping yesterday and today's new cases together. The site does seem to do a good job of self policing, but it can take a while (hours). They have also been hacked. The new number of "new cases" diminishes the totals and extends the time frame I pointed out initially, but still indicates we will catch up to China in a week. The total cases and motality outlook get reduced to around a perhaps less gutwrenching 170,000 new cases and 17,000 deaths.

I wouldn't hazard a guess as to specific numbers. I just take hope from Dr Fauci's continued prediction that the measures we've taken will result in a flattening & be less severe than Italy's situation. Right now we only have 3 hot spot (states), in terms of deaths. I'm wearily watching LA, GA, LA & FL to see if another develops.

[Cooter]

The number of serious and critical cases has made a large jump up to 708 today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

with 178 Recovered and 349 deaths.

26.9k total cases (detected), 25.6K active, "mild" as in not yet serious.
Note, many of those "mild" do need hospitalization.

Roughly 16% of all cases do need hospitalization, though it may be half that rate if we include the likely undetected cases.

NYC's hospitals will look like Italy in 10 days.

That sounds like fuzzy math.
What if the undetected cases were 10 times the detected cases, would it just be half that?

If you’re still downplaying the seriousness of this crisis, then you need to stop.

DocBarrister

That is pretty funny.

Cooter, I'm not going to make any assumptions about your intent.
Forgive Doc, he's very understandably po'd by all the downplaying of the crisis too many are still doing..it really will cost lives to do so.

Me too.

So, I'll just try to understand your point/question.

What did you find 'fuzzy' about my post?
Certainly I'm making approximations, but the patterns around the world look pretty consistent, within ranges.

And the trajectory of NY, especially NYC, is very steep. If anywhere near the range of hospitalization experienced in Italy (and so far in NY), they will be overwhelmed in less than 2 weeks.

And the death rate will grow under these conditions as people who might well have survived with a ventilator won't have access.

Or are you talking about the % of hospitalizations?
Sure, if the undetected have been 10X across the world of those hospitalized (rather than the 2X assumption I made), the % of hospitalized would be lower. But does that matter if the comparative stat is on the detected cases? If that is within range of the experience across the world, then the problem is the same.

5,000 healthcare workers with COVID-19 in Italy now. Out of PPE.

I am merely discussing your assumption that the number of undetected cases was about equal the detected, (leading to 2 times as many cases), and that you feel that you could make a mathematical calculation based on it. The number of undetected cases in the U.S. Is unknown.

[MDlaxfan76]

3) have the humility to listen to others.

You didn't answer my question about the plane.

Maintenance/Engineering: every aspect of work performed in this regard is signed off multiple times by line managers or senior engineers. This redundant QC process is a direct result of not trusting one person to be THE expert. Everything is team-oriented and team-produced.

Pilots: the best pilot can no longer compete with auto-pilot. And that capability spread grows wider every day. Reason? Because an auto pilot system can simultaneously and with no failure rate calculate hundreds of variable inputs. Humans can not. (Cirrus’ Vision Jet now has a Safe Return Burton that anyone reading this can push and the plane will land itself safely every time, no pilot necessary).

Aviation is probably the most glaring industry example of why ‘expertise’ is easily debunked. Not one person can be ‘expert’ at such a complex system. The system is the expert.

Auto pilot is great until a pitot tube freezes up and the auto pilot disengages at an inopportune time because it can’t handle the conflicting data.

I used to do a lot of aviation litigation. Learned the same thing as I did in medicine: small failures can have catastrophic results.

Whether it’s a microscopic arterial plaque triggering a fatal thrombotic cascade or a small switch failure causing a helicopter to literally slice itself in half, complex systems can be brought down by the smallest things.

Coronavirus is just a different variant of that.

DocBarrister

You can also drown in a sink if you’re not too careful.

The odds of dying in air and space transport incidents, which include private flights and air taxis, are 1 in 11,000 and trending wider every year. That’s almost four times better chances than you meeting your fate by choking on food.

Are we supposed to trust you because you have some domain knowledge, or is it cool if I double check your information with a German philosophy professor at Emory who lives down the block to confirm or reject your expertise?

If only you were making the point you think you’re making. Unfortunately, I’d be the first to tell you to get a second or third or fourth opinion. I may think I know what I know, but more importantly, I know enough to always doubt myself. You shouldn’t reflexively believe my defense of my industry. I’m invested in the outcome.

Honest answer. But should those double checks be with a plumber, a doctor, a taxi driver etc... or should we look to those with actual expertise in aviation, better yet those with specialized knowledge in the specific area of aviation relevant to the particular question?

Seems obvious to me.

[calourie]

New "new cases" number for the US on the worldometers site show 14,550 today with the previous high having been 5604 two days ago. Looks like vastly increased testing is kicking in which should end up being a very good thing for identifying and isolating. Nevertheless even if the 14,000 number holds steady going forth, which logic tells us is unrealistically optimistic, we will pass China as the country with the most cases by the end of this coming week. Assuming it will take us at the very least three weeks to peak, using the same optimistic no increase in rate of spread, we will be looking at at least 300,000 cases by then. Right now the numbers show a 1% death rate in the US. Using that figure points to 30,000 or so deaths in the US by in that timeframe. Outside of discovering that the Hydrocloroquine-azithromicene malaria drug works a miracle, any discussion of this crisis ignoring the trending numbers looks like it will rapidly fall under the category of fake news.

It depends on when the curve begins to flatten. We'll also likely have to limit testing, due to temporary PPE shortages.

Since we should be hunkering down nationwide anyway, voluntary or mandatory, testing is not as critical as PPE.

How soon do you guess the curve will flatten, Salty? Current trends, referencing the trending histories in other countries who were impacted earlier than us suggest that 3 weeks would be optimistic. I would be delighted for our situation to be mercifully benign and have it happen even sooner. Hope for the best prepare for the worst.

PS I would point out that I dial into worldometers site on a regular basis, and their numbers do jump around a bit. Right now they have the new cases in the US AT 8,000+. The 14,500 number reported earlier today looks to have been an accounting error lumping yesterday and today's new cases together. The site does seem to do a good job of self policing, but it can take a while (hours). They have also been hacked. The new number of "new cases" diminishes the totals and extends the time frame I pointed out initially, but still indicates we will catch up to China in a week. The total cases and motality outlook get reduced to around a perhaps less gutwrenching 170,000 new cases and 17,000 deaths.

I wouldn't hazard a guess as to specific numbers. I just take hope from Dr Fauci's continued prediction that the measures we've taken will result in a flattening & be less severe than Italy's situation. Right now we only have 3 hot spot (states), in terms of deaths. I'm wearily watching LA, GA, LA & FL to see if another develops.

I need to shamefully apologize for my abject ineptitude in crunching the worldometers numbers this morning whereby my two earlier posts projected death tolls off by a factor of 10. I'm usually pretty good with numbers, but it appears dementia might overtake me before Covid-19. At any rate even with an immediate flattening of the curve the numbers as they currently stand suggest 82,000 cases by the end of the week accompanied by 1000+ deaths, and around 150,000 cases and 2,500 deaths by the end of our first 3 week effort to take the public measures suggested to keep the curves manageable. These projections should be easy to reference. Again sorry for erring on the side of dire.

[Farfromgeneva]

And I don’t because I know you are.

I argue w AFan sometimes, though I think it maintains some decency between us, but I view his prism as one deeply involved in a highly regulated industry and so expect his prescriptions on things to be skewed towards that. Not a bad thing but we all have what Husserl describes as contextual relevance or phenomenology.

But, but, but you didn’t answer if you think me asking someone completely unqualified would be appropriate.

[Trinity]

Salty, you watching Florida? Today in Miami.

[Farfromgeneva]

Forgive the potentially mysoginistic comment but looks like a sausage party to me. Hard pass when the ratio gets above 4:1 for me (and I’m married).

[old salt]

using your logic, e-v-e-r-y leader in the world has the same darned problem.....and you sit back and criticize only one man.

Every leader has the same PROBLEM, but not every leader has the same SOLUTIONS.

Look at Germany, a country with leaders who know what they're doing. 10,000 ventilators being manufactured NOW, in Germany, to add to the existing 25,000. No shortage of tests. No shortage of PPE. New emergency hospitals being built NOW. The Germans know how to do public / private / union partnerships that take care of everybody.

The man we criticize is OUR leader. Want me to criticize Xi of China? Or the prime minister of Italy, whose name I don't remember off hand? Why?

Trump is OUR GUY. If he f***s up royally, which he has, it our RIGHT and DUTY as AMERICAN CITIZENS to criticize him.

Surely you agree with that.

It could also be that Germany already had the manufacturing capability for ventilators. They just needed to add another shift in existing plants.
They already export significant amounts of pharma & medical supplies. They have a much greater production capacity/ per capita, than does the US.
S Korea similarly.

[MDlaxfan76]

The number of serious and critical cases has made a large jump up to 708 today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

with 178 Recovered and 349 deaths.

26.9k total cases (detected), 25.6K active, "mild" as in not yet serious.
Note, many of those "mild" do need hospitalization.

Roughly 16% of all cases do need hospitalization, though it may be half that rate if we include the likely undetected cases.

NYC's hospitals will look like Italy in 10 days.

That sounds like fuzzy math.
What if the undetected cases were 10 times the detected cases, would it just be half that?

If you’re still downplaying the seriousness of this crisis, then you need to stop.

DocBarrister

That is pretty funny.

Cooter, I'm not going to make any assumptions about your intent.
Forgive Doc, he's very understandably po'd by all the downplaying of the crisis too many are still doing..it really will cost lives to do so.

Me too.

So, I'll just try to understand your point/question.

What did you find 'fuzzy' about my post?
Certainly I'm making approximations, but the patterns around the world look pretty consistent, within ranges.

And the trajectory of NY, especially NYC, is very steep. If anywhere near the range of hospitalization experienced in Italy (and so far in NY), they will be overwhelmed in less than 2 weeks.

And the death rate will grow under these conditions as people who might well have survived with a ventilator won't have access.

Or are you talking about the % of hospitalizations?
Sure, if the undetected have been 10X across the world of those hospitalized (rather than the 2X assumption I made), the % of hospitalized would be lower. But does that matter if the comparative stat is on the detected cases? If that is within range of the experience across the world, then the problem is the same.

5,000 healthcare workers with COVID-19 in Italy now. Out of PPE.

I am merely discussing your assumption that the number of undetected cases was about 2 times the detected, and feel that you could make a mathematical calculation based on it. The number of undetected cases in the U.S. Is unknown.

we certainly agree on that.
All we do know is that we haven't been testing at the rates that say SK did and is continuing to do, so it's likely that they were catching more of the incidence that we have been doing. So, yes, we could well have well more incidence than those detected so far, not just 2x but possibly 10X even. And we can fairly state that not even SK's high surveillance likely caught all cases, after all, even their approach only tested in the singe digit % of overall population. So, it's on a relative basis.

so, we look around the world, get some averages, make some judgments about ranges and where we most likely are in those ranges. Imperfect for sure, but enough to begin to make decent estimations within relevant degrees of confidence.

I tend to think we're currently more likely in the 2-5 range than 10X (relative to world averages) else we'd have already seen higher death rates. They're coming fast, but these curves have been pretty consistent tracking within ranges. Two weeks ago, I'd have said the 10X was closer, maybe even under-stating incidence because our testing had been so abysmal. But as places like NY have begun to ramp up, we're getting closer in. Still way off for sure. But getting better at least for those with symptoms.

[MDlaxfan76]

Forgive the potentially mysoginistic comment but looks like a sausage party to me. Hard pass when the ratio gets above 4:1 for me (and I’m married).

Maybe my eyes are better than yours but that looks like more gals than guys unless that's an awful lot of euro style suits on the guys...

But in this context, shocking by these folks.