Cooter wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:16 pm
DocBarrister wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:07 pm
Cooter wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:57 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:23 am
with 178 Recovered and 349 deaths.
26.9k total cases (detected), 25.6K active, "mild" as in not yet serious.
Note, many of those "mild" do need hospitalization.
Roughly 16% of all cases do need hospitalization, though it may be half that rate if we include the likely undetected cases.
NYC's hospitals will look like Italy in 10 days.
That sounds like fuzzy math.
What if the undetected cases were 10 times the detected cases, would it just be half that?
If you’re still downplaying the seriousness of this crisis, then you need to stop.
DocBarrister
That is pretty funny.
Cooter, I'm not going to make any assumptions about your intent.
Forgive Doc, he's very understandably po'd by all the downplaying of the crisis too many are still doing..it really will cost lives to do so.
Me too.
So, I'll just try to understand your point/question.
What did you find 'fuzzy' about my post?
Certainly I'm making approximations, but the patterns around the world look pretty consistent, within ranges.
And the trajectory of NY, especially NYC, is very steep. If anywhere near the range of hospitalization experienced in Italy (and so far in NY), they will be overwhelmed in less than 2 weeks.
And the death rate will grow under these conditions as people who might well have survived with a ventilator won't have access.
Or are you talking about the % of hospitalizations?
Sure, if the undetected have been 10X across the world of those hospitalized (rather than the 2X assumption I made), the % of hospitalized would be lower. But does that matter if the comparative stat is on the detected cases? If that is within range of the experience across the world, then the problem is the same.
5,000 healthcare workers with COVID-19 in Italy now. Out of PPE.