All things CoronaVirus

[old salt]

If you want to see what real leadership looks like - watch this video of Angela Merkel (subtitled in English) speaking to the German people about the coronovirus pandemic.

Calm, firm, and hopeful... Also explaining why the decisions that have been made were made.

Amazing contrast to Trump...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLxrxyk_wYo

Other than the traditional New Year's address, German Chancellor's don't normally directly address the German prople.
This is her first such address in 15 years. Germany's cabinet ministers do most of the communicating on behalf of the govt.

If she were Trump, you'd be criticizing her for weak leadership in taking so long to rally the German people to sacrifice & to take the necessary draconian measures that she was negligently late in imposing.

[calourie]

New "new cases" number for the US on the worldometers site show 14,550 today with the previous high having been 5604 two days ago. Looks like vastly increased testing is kicking in which should end up being a very good thing for identifying and isolating. Nevertheless even if the 14,000 number holds steady going forth, which logic tells us is unrealistically optimistic, we will pass China as the country with the most cases by the end of this coming week. Assuming it will take us at the very least three weeks to peak, using the same optimistic no increase in rate of spread, we will be looking at at least 300,000 cases by then. Right now the numbers show a 1% death rate in the US. Using that figure points to 30,000 or so deaths in the US by in that timeframe. Outside of discovering that the Hydrocloroquine-azithromicene malaria drug works a miracle, any discussion of this crisis ignoring the trending numbers looks like it will rapidly fall under the category of fake news.

[old salt]

If you want to see what real leadership looks like - watch this video of Angela Merkel (subtitled in English) speaking to the German people about the coronovirus pandemic.

Calm, firm, and hopeful... Also explaining why the decisions that have been made were made.

Amazing contrast to Trump...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLxrxyk_wYo

Other than the traditional New Year's address, German Chancellor's don't normally directly address the German prople.
This is her first such address in 15 years. Germany's cabinet ministers do most of the communicating on behalf of the govt.

If she were Trump, you'd be criticizing her for weak leadership in taking so long to rally the German people to sacrifice & to take the necessary draconian measures that she was negligently late in imposing.

Germany is likely to rival S Korea in effectiveness, which is not surprising, given the similarities in the two nations & cultures.

Contrast Germany's stat's with neighboring France :
Germany : 23,974 confirmed cases // 92 deaths
France : 14,485 confirmed cases // 562 deaths

Apparently Germany is testing more & caring for the ill much more effectively.

[old salt]

New "new cases" number for the US on the worldometers site show 14,550 today with the previous high having been 5604 two days ago. Looks like vastly increased testing is kicking in which should end up being a very good thing for identifying and isolating. Nevertheless even if the 14,000 number holds steady going forth, which logic tells us is unrealistically optimistic, we will pass China as the country with the most cases by the end of this coming week. Assuming it will take us at the very least three weeks to peak, using the same optimistic no increase in rate of spread, we will be looking at at least 300,000 cases by then. Right now the numbers show a 1% death rate in the US. Using that figure points to 30,000 or so deaths in the US by in that timeframe. Outside of discovering that the Hydrocloroquine-azithromicene malaria drug works a miracle, any discussion of this crisis ignoring the trending numbers looks like it will rapidly fall under the category of fake news.

It depends on when the curve begins to flatten. We'll also likely have to limit testing, due to temporary PPE shortages.

Since we should be hunkering down nationwide anyway, voluntary or mandatory, testing is not as critical as PPE.

[youthathletics]

Not everyone is entitled to have their “opinions” about medicine, public health, and epidemiology. Not in a crisis like this.

So, let’s please stop promoting baseless quackery like the Daniel Dae Kim post. He’s a good actor, but he’s not an infectious disease expert.

In addition, the unjustified run on drugs like hydroxychloroquinine has resulted in severe shortages that are hurting patients who really need those anti-inflammatory medications.

DocBarrister

Does that sentence give anyone else here chills? It's both comical as well as scary and precisely why the conservative base distrusts the Left.

(btw, EVERYONE is entitled to their opinions, about anything; one need not follow every opinion, but hearing other opinions makes your own that much more informed)

What is truly chilling is the idea that anyone is entitled to “opinions” about the facts.

It is fine to acknowledge uncertainty or the lack of facts in medicine and science. It is also fine to disagree, within learned reason, about what the facts are. It’s another thing entirely to believe that anyone is “entitled” to their opinions about what is already known.

DocBarrister

It apparently is okay for the people of New York as a trial, to begin on Tuesday....according to Cuomo. Is this quackery as well Doc?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-C__KRHq21/

[CU77]

btw, EVERYONE is entitled to their opinions, about anything; one need not follow every opinion, but hearing other opinions makes your own that much more informed

The big difference between the right and the left is whether the trust one places in any particular opinion should be weighted by the expertise of the person offering the opinion.

The right places no extra weight on expertise. They trust some guy on medium just as much (or more) as the worldwide medical research community.

PB, you are in this group. You want the medical experts to stop and watch some video by some non-expert.

The left, in contrast, is usually (not always) far more trusting of experts than non-experts.

PB, you're business is aviation, correct? Would you trust some guy on medium telling you how to fix a broken airplane? Would you fly in that plane after he fixed it?

[seacoaster]

PSA:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=you ... ks6Nq7g6P4

[DocBarrister]

Not everyone is entitled to have their “opinions” about medicine, public health, and epidemiology. Not in a crisis like this.

So, let’s please stop promoting baseless quackery like the Daniel Dae Kim post. He’s a good actor, but he’s not an infectious disease expert.

In addition, the unjustified run on drugs like hydroxychloroquinine has resulted in severe shortages that are hurting patients who really need those anti-inflammatory medications.

DocBarrister

Does that sentence give anyone else here chills? It's both comical as well as scary and precisely why the conservative base distrusts the Left.

(btw, EVERYONE is entitled to their opinions, about anything; one need not follow every opinion, but hearing other opinions makes your own that much more informed)

What is truly chilling is the idea that anyone is entitled to “opinions” about the facts.

It is fine to acknowledge uncertainty or the lack of facts in medicine and science. It is also fine to disagree, within learned reason, about what the facts are. It’s another thing entirely to believe that anyone is “entitled” to their opinions about what is already known.

DocBarrister

It apparently is okay for the people of New York as a trial, to begin on Tuesday....according to Cuomo. Is this quackery as well Doc?

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-C__KRHq21/

Listening to health advice from a television actor is quackery.

In normal circumstances, conducting any sizable clinical trial with drugs like hydroxychloroquine with the sparse available evidence would be considered quackery as well. I’m sure the FDA is getting pressure from the White House to do this. These are not normal circumstances, however. There is no way ... and I mean, NO WAY, they can conduct a high-quality clinical trial in the current crisis. I understand why they are trying this, but the evidence supporting the effort is marginal at best. These drugs also aren’t entirely benign.

Officials can try and do more than one thing, but I think resources are best spent getting more tests, more PPEs, more hospital beds, and more ventilators.

DocBarrister

[Cooter]

The number of serious and critical cases has made a large jump up to 708 today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

with 178 Recovered and 349 deaths.

26.9k total cases (detected), 25.6K active, "mild" as in not yet serious.
Note, many of those "mild" do need hospitalization.

Roughly 16% of all cases do need hospitalization, though it may be half that rate if we include the likely undetected cases.

NYC's hospitals will look like Italy in 10 days.

That sounds like fuzzy math.
What if the undetected cases were 10 times the detected cases, would it just be half that?

[DocBarrister]

The United States is now at over 32,000 confirmed cases and over 400 deaths.

We are on a trajectory to surpass China in both confirmed cases and deaths.

There really is no excuse for that. The Trump administration’s gross negligence is going to cost the United States hundreds of thousands of casualties that could have been avoided, including potentially thousands of additional deaths that may have been prevented.

And Trump is writing Kim Jong Un to offer help?!?

Look at Italy. That may be us in a few weeks on a much larger scale unless the Trump administration gets its act together.

DocBarrister

[Peter Brown]

btw, EVERYONE is entitled to their opinions, about anything; one need not follow every opinion, but hearing other opinions makes your own that much more informed

The big difference between the right and the left is whether the trust one places in any particular opinion should be weighted by the expertise of the person offering the opinion.

The right places no extra weight on expertise. They trust some guy on medium just as much (or more) as the worldwide medical research community.

PB, you are in this group. You want the medical experts to stop and watch some video by some non-expert.

The left, in contrast, is usually (not always) far more trusting of experts than non-experts.

PB, you're business is aviation, correct? Would you trust some guy on medium telling you how to fix a broken airplane? Would you fly in that plane after he fixed it?

I don’t “want the medical experts to stop...”. They’re free to do whatever they want.

My point, which the left doesn’t seem to grasp, is: 1) self-identified experts are often not as expert as advertised; be more skeptical 2) learning is forever; don’t assume you know even when you think you know and 3) have the humility to listen to others.

Your point about right and left is close to how I feel but with a different outcome. The left wants to be told what do, they crave authority (especially if it’s they issuing orders); the right does not.

[calourie]

New "new cases" number for the US on the worldometers site show 14,550 today with the previous high having been 5604 two days ago. Looks like vastly increased testing is kicking in which should end up being a very good thing for identifying and isolating. Nevertheless even if the 14,000 number holds steady going forth, which logic tells us is unrealistically optimistic, we will pass China as the country with the most cases by the end of this coming week. Assuming it will take us at the very least three weeks to peak, using the same optimistic no increase in rate of spread, we will be looking at at least 300,000 cases by then. Right now the numbers show a 1% death rate in the US. Using that figure points to 30,000 or so deaths in the US by in that timeframe. Outside of discovering that the Hydrocloroquine-azithromicene malaria drug works a miracle, any discussion of this crisis ignoring the trending numbers looks like it will rapidly fall under the category of fake news.

It depends on when the curve begins to flatten. We'll also likely have to limit testing, due to temporary PPE shortages.

Since we should be hunkering down nationwide anyway, voluntary or mandatory, testing is not as critical as PPE.

How soon do you guess the curve will flatten, Salty? Current trends, referencing the trending histories in other countries who were impacted earlier than us suggest that 3 weeks would be optimistic. I would be delighted for our situation to be mercifully benign and have it happen even sooner. Hope for the best prepare for the worst.

PS I would point out that I dial into worldometers site on a regular basis, and their numbers do jump around a bit. Right now they have the new cases in the US AT 8,000+. The 14,500 number reported earlier today looks to have been an accounting error lumping yesterday and today's new cases together. The site does seem to do a good job of self policing, but it can take a while (hours). They have also been hacked. The new number of "new cases" diminishes the totals and extends the time frame I pointed out initially, but still indicates we will catch up to China in a week. The total cases and motality outlook get reduced to around a perhaps less gutwrenching 170,000 new cases and 17,000 deaths.

[youthathletics]

PSA:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=you ... ks6Nq7g6P4

[Peter Brown]

The United States is now at over 32,000 confirmed cases and over 400 deaths.

We are on a trajectory to surpass China in both confirmed cases and deaths.

There really is no excuse for that. The Trump administration’s gross negligence is going to cost the United States hundreds of thousands of casualties that could have been avoided, including potentially thousands of additional deaths that may have been prevented.

And Trump is writing Kim Jong Un to offer help?!?

Look at Italy. That may be us in a few weeks on a much larger scale unless the Trump administration gets its act together.

DocBarrister

Oh look; A Democrat assigning blame. I swear I heard Bill de Blasio saying something similar this morning. Good thing Pelosi won’t hijack the stimulus bill.

[DocBarrister]

The number of serious and critical cases has made a large jump up to 708 today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

with 178 Recovered and 349 deaths.

26.9k total cases (detected), 25.6K active, "mild" as in not yet serious.
Note, many of those "mild" do need hospitalization.

Roughly 16% of all cases do need hospitalization, though it may be half that rate if we include the likely undetected cases.

NYC's hospitals will look like Italy in 10 days.

That sounds like fuzzy math.
What if the undetected cases were 10 times the detected cases, would it just be half that?

If you’re still downplaying the seriousness of this crisis, then you need to stop.

DocBarrister

[youthathletics]

The United States is now at over 32,000 confirmed cases and over 400 deaths.

We are on a trajectory to surpass China in both confirmed cases and deaths.

There really is no excuse for that. The Trump administration’s gross negligence is going to cost the United States hundreds of thousands of casualties that could have been avoided, including potentially thousands of additional deaths that may have been prevented.

And Trump is writing Kim Jong Un to offer help?!?

Look at Italy. That may be us in a few weeks on a much larger scale unless the Trump administration gets its act together.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

The United States is now at over 32,000 confirmed cases and over 400 deaths.

We are on a trajectory to surpass China in both confirmed cases and deaths.

There really is no excuse for that. The Trump administration’s gross negligence is going to cost the United States hundreds of thousands of casualties that could have been avoided, including potentially thousands of additional deaths that may have been prevented.

And Trump is writing Kim Jong Un to offer help?!?

Look at Italy. That may be us in a few weeks on a much larger scale unless the Trump administration gets its act together.

DocBarrister

Oh look; A Democrat assigning blame. I swear I heard Bill de Blasio saying something similar this morning. Good thing Pelosi won’t hijack the stimulus bill.

Real lives are at stake. It’s not a matter of assigning blame. It’s a matter of placing responsibility.

Trump needs to do more, much more. He is failing to do so. People are dying, and many more will die, because of the mistakes he is continuing to make. What about that do you not understand?

DocBarrister

[CU77]

If she were Trump, you'd be ...

I request that you respond to things actually said, not fake things that you made up.

[DocBarrister]

The United States is now at over 32,000 confirmed cases and over 400 deaths.

We are on a trajectory to surpass China in both confirmed cases and deaths.

There really is no excuse for that. The Trump administration’s gross negligence is going to cost the United States hundreds of thousands of casualties that could have been avoided, including potentially thousands of additional deaths that may have been prevented.

And Trump is writing Kim Jong Un to offer help?!?

Look at Italy. That may be us in a few weeks on a much larger scale unless the Trump administration gets its act together.

DocBarrister

We’re discussing dying Americans and you post that gif?

Uncaring and callous do not even begin to describe your attitude.

DocBarrister

[Cooter]

The number of serious and critical cases has made a large jump up to 708 today.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

with 178 Recovered and 349 deaths.

26.9k total cases (detected), 25.6K active, "mild" as in not yet serious.
Note, many of those "mild" do need hospitalization.

Roughly 16% of all cases do need hospitalization, though it may be half that rate if we include the likely undetected cases.

NYC's hospitals will look like Italy in 10 days.

That sounds like fuzzy math.
What if the undetected cases were 10 times the detected cases, would it just be half that?

If you’re still downplaying the seriousness of this crisis, then you need to stop.

DocBarrister

That is pretty funny.