All things CoronaVirus

[DocBarrister]

JHU72:
I would take a governor that I have basic philosophical differences with (Hogan) and have not voted for in a second over either one of them.

So based on your voting record, you'd rather have 1st term, inexperienced Governor Ben Jealous leading us through this crisis, than 2nd term experienced Governor Larry Hogan (who was elected President of the National Governors Assn by his fellow Governors).
Solid, nonpartisan choice.

He said he'd prefer Hogan over Trump.

I would prefer a Hoagie to Trump. Mmmm

So Hanes is going to start making masks. Will be interesting to see how they modify a jock strap into a mask. Incredible.

Hoagies good.

Trump bad.

DocBarrister

[jhu72]

Back to the weather/humidity thing:

(From Josh Marshall at TPM)

*** Seasonality has been one of the big unknowns about COVID-19. Will it ebb into the Spring and Summer as weather gets warmer, as flu and colds generally do? Here are two just posted and as-yet un-peer-reviewed studies (one and two) which attempt to answer this question. First, it’s not just heat. It’s heat and humidity, which both play roles affecting the transmissibility of respiratory viruses and the relative strength of our immune systems. One study looks at cities in China in the short window of time between the beginning of aggressive tracking and the travel clampdown, adjusting for regional economic activity and population density. The other study looks at outbreaks so far around the world. They both find significant correlation between efficiency of spread and cool/temperate and dry weather. This obviously does not mean “good news, it’ll go away in May!” One critical thing to remember is that COVID-19 is a virgin soil epidemic. It has huge advantages over established colds and flus to which the global population has significant built-in immunity. But in conjunction with social distancing and other measures, this could mean some relative let up in the summer and return in the fall. Also significant, this could mean it may never hit Africa and tropical regions with quite the same force. That’s obviously a huge deal in itself since these countries lack robust health care systems.

This would explain some of the other observed regional correlations like malarial regions. Also sets us up for killing wave just like the Spanish Flu outbreak. The 2nd wave in the fall of 2018 killed the most people.

[DocBarrister]

The United States has surged past Germany and Iran and now only trails Spain, Italy, and China in total confirmed cases. It’s not the absolute numbers that are most concerning, but the trajectory. The pandemic is not slowing down here.

We will know within two weeks whether current measures are sufficient. I strongly suspect not, but hope for the best.

DocBarrister

[RedFromMI]

A couple of more news items from my Twitter feed:

1. Italy over 800 deaths in last day alone.

2. No departures from NY area airports due to ATC staffing shortages apparently (self quarantining suspected leading to short staff). Don't know how long this lasts...

From the FAA website:

ATCSCC Advisory
ATCSCC ADVZY 068 DCC 03/21/2020 ZNY_ALL_STOP_RQD

MESSAGE:


EVENT TIME: 21/1745 - 22/0300
DUE TO STAFFING ISSUES AT ZNY, PLEASE STOP ALL DEPARTURES TO
AIRPORTS WITHIN ZNY. THIS INCLUDES KJFK, KEWR, KLGA, KTEB, KHPN,
KPHL, KMMU, KCDW, KMDT, KABE, KISP, KFRG AND SEVERAL SMALLER
AIRPORTS.
FURTHER UPDATES TO FOLLOW.

EFFECTIVE TIME:
211746 - 220330

SIGNATURE:
20/03/21 17:46

[RedFromMI]

Oh and latest numbers for US are over 22K, with a bit under half (really) in NY (almost 10,400).

[CU77]

We need tens of million sets of PPE if we ramp up testing as planned, rather than conserving it to protect the med personnel treating the sick.
Does testing need to stay limited until the PPE supply necessary to implement it (without degrading urgent care) catches up ?

You've got it exactly backward. Ask any doctor or nurse. Testing is needed to know what level of isolation to use with CURRENTLY SICK patients, a number which is growing exponentially.

[DocBarrister]

New York City alone has had over 7,500 confirmed cases.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

NYC is making some of the same mistakes that China’s health experts claim Italy is making ... including the continued operation of mass transit systems.

Gov. Cuomo acted too late to shut down the city. He may not be doing enough now.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

JHU72:
I would take a governor that I have basic philosophical differences with (Hogan) and have not voted for in a second over either one of them.

So based on your voting record, you'd rather have 1st term, inexperienced Governor Ben Jealous leading us through this crisis, than 2nd term experienced Governor Larry Hogan (who was elected President of the National Governors Assn by his fellow Governors).
Solid, nonpartisan choice.

He said he'd prefer Hogan over Trump.

He said he has not voted for Hogan.
Did he vote for Ben Jealous instead ?
Who would he prefer to have as Governor now ?

[Trinity]

Trump now has “plants” among the reduced press corps to tee up his grievances and excuses. His travel ban was his Mission Accomplished moment and there’s no aircraft carrier. He’s sad he gets no credit and, oh, yeah, Mooky al Sadr is on the prowl.

[RedFromMI]

We need tens of million sets of PPE if we ramp up testing as planned, rather than conserving it to protect the med personnel treating the sick.
Does testing need to stay limited until the PPE supply necessary to implement it (without degrading urgent care) catches up ?

You've got it exactly backward. Ask any doctor or nurse. Testing is needed to know what level of isolation to use with CURRENTLY SICK patients, a number which is growing exponentially.

And as a country we sat on our butts knowing this was a potential and maybe even likely outcome and wasted any lead time we may have had preparing.

Instead Trump just looks for something to be optimistic about and ignores the rest. And of course he has no real way to make those judgements except he believes his "superior" intellect will win over in the end.

In fact, he has no "superior" intellect, and his mental defects/illness prevents him from seeing the truth.

[RedFromMI]

JHU72:
I would take a governor that I have basic philosophical differences with (Hogan) and have not voted for in a second over either one of them.

So based on your voting record, you'd rather have 1st term, inexperienced Governor Ben Jealous leading us through this crisis, than 2nd term experienced Governor Larry Hogan (who was elected President of the National Governors Assn by his fellow Governors).
Solid, nonpartisan choice.

He said he'd prefer Hogan over Trump.

He said he has not voted for Hogan.
Did he vote for Ben Jealous instead ?
Who would he prefer to have as Governor now ?

You are not reading how JHU worded this - he did not and would not vote for Hogan (differences) but would take Hogan in a heartbeat over Trump to manage this.

[old salt]

We need tens of million sets of PPE if we ramp up testing as planned, rather than conserving it to protect the med personnel treating the sick.
Does testing need to stay limited until the PPE supply necessary to implement it (without degrading urgent care) catches up ?

You've got it exactly backward. Ask any doctor or nurse. Testing is needed to know what level of isolation to use with CURRENTLY SICK patients, a number which is growing exponentially.

Is testing limited to just "sick" patients ? It's not being used for contact tracing ?

[Peter Brown]

Ground stop in New York. Expect most commercial traffic to halt this week for a week is my guess. Private should be affected only by uncontrolled airspace navigating, which some pilots aren’t used to.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/faa-iss ... ty.Message

[RedFromMI]

We need tens of million sets of PPE if we ramp up testing as planned, rather than conserving it to protect the med personnel treating the sick.
Does testing need to stay limited until the PPE supply necessary to implement it (without degrading urgent care) catches up ?

You've got it exactly backward. Ask any doctor or nurse. Testing is needed to know what level of isolation to use with CURRENTLY SICK patients, a number which is growing exponentially.

Is testing limited to just "sick" patients ? It's not being used for contact tracing ?

In general, contact tracing should lead to self or imposed isolation, then test with symptoms.

[Trinity]

Pence is that guy who adds an hour to every meeting for no reason.

[old salt]

JHU72:
I would take a governor that I have basic philosophical differences with (Hogan) and have not voted for in a second over either one of them.

So based on your voting record, you'd rather have 1st term, inexperienced Governor Ben Jealous leading us through this crisis, than 2nd term experienced Governor Larry Hogan (who was elected President of the National Governors Assn by his fellow Governors).
Solid, nonpartisan choice.

He said he'd prefer Hogan over Trump.

He said he has not voted for Hogan.
Did he vote for Ben Jealous instead ?
Who would he prefer to have as Governor now ?

You are not reading how JHU worded this - he did not and would not vote for Hogan (differences) but would take Hogan in a heartbeat over Trump to manage this.

Did he vote for Ben Jealous as Gov ? Would he prefer Jealous as Gov now ?
Let him answer for himself. He brought up his personal voting record.

[DocBarrister]

Pence is that guy who adds an hour to every meeting for no reason.

I hate those guys.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

Ground stop in New York. Expect most commercial traffic to halt this week for a week is my guess. Private should be affected only by uncontrolled airspace navigating, which some pilots aren’t used to.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/faa-iss ... ty.Message

The article just says one ATC facility located on LI. Does not specify if it houses NY Center or NY Approach.
They may be able to continue normal IFR handling to traffic other than arrivals & departures.
I thought it was just JFK tower.

[DocBarrister]

All of Trump’s irresponsible speculation about anti-malarial medications like hydroxychloroquine has left a shortage of those medications. That’s really problematic for patients with SLE and rheumatoid arthritis who use those medications for their anti-inflammatory effects.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... treatment/

DocBarrister

[Trinity]

Australia activated national pandemic protocols on January 21st. One wonders about the intel that was shooting around FVEY's during that period.