All things CoronaVirus

[old salt]

In case anyone here is genuinely interested in original analysis, which btw would require you not bring any partisan angle to this issue (foreverlax convinced me yesterday that absolutely zero Democrats care much anymore about fact-gathering), I'd suggest taking the time to read the following, incredibly well-laid out, data-driven, debunking of the hysteria in this country over Covid-19. If you find anything wrong in this man's report, feel free to post. As far as I am concerned, he has the answer and we will be back to business within 2 months tops.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Data is data. Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal. I hope you walk away with a more informed perspective on how you can help and fight back against the hysteria that is driving our country into a dark place. You can help us focus our scarce resources on those who are most vulnerable, who need our help.

First, he (author) is a Silicon Valley technologist - no real expertise on pandemics. So everything he says has to be viewed within that light. Also the founder of the Lincoln Project, and pretty deeply involved in R politics (including Koch funding). Understanding the author and where he comes from is always useful.

Lots of misuse of data from my perspective. He has this whole section about a bell curve as if he can actually predict for the US when the peak will occur. He cannot - the information is not in the data yet. The whole thing about per capita has some limited value, and the US does have the advantage compared with other countries in that we have a lower average population density. But the US is also quite mobile, and with our lack of testing we have essentially spread the virus all over the country without knowing where it might be.

But the essential problem is he is making predictions on his "knowledge" of data, not on actual science of epidemics/pandemics. And any predictions on actual effects are meaningless in the face of rapidly changing situations on the ground with respect to social distancing, lockdowns, shutdowns, etc.

He is essentially misusing statistics to argue a political point (which is exactly what you would expect given that the Lincoln Project is actually his political project).

Also, just because the virus is sensitive to UV light does NOT mean that it will die down in the summer. It might slow the spread or it might not, but that is a speculation not yet evident in the data. BTW, look at the progression in Australia, coming of a hot summer. Still taking off like gangbusters.

This is a bit like Trump's hope that we can just fix this with some old drugs in new combinations. It _might_ be possible, but we do not actually know the answer. We can hope, but in the meantime we need to run the trials.

So I don't see a lot of value in his piece other than to make people who want to believe there is some magic way out of this. Which is a public disservice at this point.

Marie Curie, chemist and physicist, (full disclosure: a true life hero of mine) once famously said: Be less curious about people and more curious about ideas

This author's background doesn't intrigue me at all, though as a Lincoln Project founder' (?), I assume he hates Trump., So you and he have a bond!

That being said, he acknowledges at the outset that he is not an epidemiologist, but rather a numbers viralogist.

To your contention that he does not understand UV light and that this does not mean the virus will die down in the summer months, his source is this:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767

And this study directly contradicts it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20022467v1

There are always two sides to the coin. That how nerds work. Which one will win out will only tell after all the data is in.

I do find it interesting that much of the data and ideas are coming from the Chinese data set where the efforts to social distance are so much different here.

I'm not certain that one study which explicitly states that "weather alone may not lead to a drop in COVID-19" is a direct contradiction of the other study which states that weather can "facilitate" a drop in the spread. They in fact might be saying the same thing. Certainly not a contradiction.

Also, the University of Maryland has published a map tool, based on weather, predicting the spread:

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/new ... hrive.html

An further review...we will not need to wait for the data of other places. We have considerable areas not in the green. Most notably the redish yellow bands of Louisianan, Texas and Florida and most of California. I hope they are right.

I also saw a report pointing out that COVID19 has not yet hit parts of the world where anti-malaria immunizations are routinely administrated.

[DocBarrister]

So NY,CA & WA are dumbass states ?

Thanks for this useless snark.

How much of our PPE stockpile was consumed doing testing, yielding 90% negatives,
...when we were headed for social distancing & lockdowns anyway ?

Around 100,000 tests have been done in the US so far. The PPE need is in the tens of millions.

Tell me that you honestly didn't know this.

Not snark. Serious questions.
So which states are the dumbass states & why ?

We have smart states and dumbass states. Unfortunately, we have an ununited states that’s allowing the spread.

That's 90,000 sets of PPE consumed on testing healthy negative subjects who have to take the same precautions anyway.
Is that a judicious use of a critical resource. Has PPE (vice test kits) become the long pole in the tent ?
We need tens of million sets of PPE if we ramp up testing as planned, rather than conserving it to protect the med personnel treating the sick.
Does testing need to stay limited until the PPE supply necessary to implement it (without degrading urgent care) catches up ?

Neither the lack of testing kits nor the lack of PPEs should have ever become an issue. We now know that there were concerning intelligence briefings about coronavirus as early as January. Trump is notorious for skipping in-person intelligence briefings and never reading intelligence briefing materials.

I believe Trump when he suggests he was blindsided by this. But that’s all on him ... he shouldn’t have been blindsided at all. Tens of thousands of Americans are going to pay the price for Trump’s willful neglect.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

I agree with CU77 - I think even many of us would be better crisis managers than Trump. His narcissism and lying get in the way of actually telling hard truths.

Check this article out about Trump administrations efforts to get help (filled with inconsistencies about what they are requesting):

The White House Asked Manufacturers for Help, Then Gave Them No Clear Instructions

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/the- ... structions

Last section of the article is telling about the incompetence:

On Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act, which gives the president broad authority to require companies to prioritize government contracts and incentivize companies to expand production of critical goods. The executive order granted Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar additional powers to allocate medical supplies.

But the president has contradicted himself several times on whether he has actually triggered the DPA. In a Thursday press conference, he said “we hope we’re not going to need that” and put the onus on individual states.

“The federal government is not supposed to be out there buying vast amounts of items and then shipping. You know, we’re not a shipping clerk,” Trump said.

Just hours later, governors on a teleconference with Trump, Pence, Azar and other senior officials complained that their efforts to get crucial supplies on the private market were floundering.

Pence said during that teleconference that although Trump had “activated” the DPA, “he has not initiated any other action underneath it” and suggested that voluntary decisions by American businesses would be sufficient to meet the critical needs.

“I think the president’s perception and the team’s perception is now” that “American industry is stepping forward very aggressively,” Pence said.

Then on Friday, in response to a question about whether Trump was using the DPA to “tell businesses they need to make ventilators, masks, respirators,” Trump nodded and said, “We are using it.”

“We are using the act, the act is very good for things like this,” Trump said. “We’re invoking it to use the powers of the federal government to help the states get things that they need, like the masks, like the ventilators.”

Minutes later, Trump appeared to backtrack, saying that “when we need something, we will use the act.”

I guess we don't "need something"?

[MDlaxfan76]

So NY,CA & WA are dumbass states ?

Thanks for this useless snark.

How much of our PPE stockpile was consumed doing testing, yielding 90% negatives,
...when we were headed for social distancing & lockdowns anyway ?

Around 100,000 tests have been done in the US so far. The PPE need is in the tens of millions.

Tell me that you honestly didn't know this.

Not snark. Serious questions.
So which states are the dumbass states & why ?

We have smart states and dumbass states. Unfortunately, we have an ununited states that’s allowing the spread.

That's 90,000 sets of PPE consumed on testing healthy negative subjects who have to take the same precautions anyway.
Is that a judicious use of a critical resource. Has PPE (vice test kits) become the long pole in the tent ?
We need tens of million sets of PPE if we ramp up testing as planned, rather than conserving it to protect the med personnel treating the sick.
Does testing need to stay limited until the PPE supply necessary to implement it (without degrading urgent care) catches up ?

Neither the lack of testing kits nor the lack of PPEs should have ever become an issue. We now know that there were concerning intelligence briefings about coronavirus as early as January. Trump is notorious for skipping in-person intelligence briefings and never reading intelligence briefing materials.

I believe Trump when he suggests he was blindsided by this. But that’s all on him ... he shouldn’t have been blindsided at all. Tens of thousands of Americans are going to pay the price for Trump’s willful neglect.

DocBarrister

Not sure how he could have remained oblivious throughout February. I can sorta understand, given his widely reported laziness regarding intelligence briefings, how he could have been a couple steps behind in mid to late January, but surely he was "hearing" the alarm bells throughout February.

Nope, not "blindsided". He knew. But he lied anyway.

Just like he did yesterday when he said he hadn't heard reports that people with symptoms couldn't get tests because there weren't enough available. The day before he was repeatedly told this by Governor after Governor, as they had done in the prior calls with him. Just a lie.

[jhu72]

It is the people and their negative comments that got Trump elected in the first place....the more you complain, criticize, chastise, ......the more you appear to be the problem and help Trump. Are you really any different than Trump, if all you do is blame the other person? There are ways you can get your point across without trying to look and act smarter than everyone else or fall in line with the pack of negativity. Ain't nobody go time for dat.

OK, good point.

Certainly Trump is out of his element….

Absolutely, glad you see it too.

as would damned near anyone.

AND … you crash back into Trumpworld.

I would rather have Pence, or any randomly selected state governor, or big-city mayor, R or D, in charge of this than Trump.

Honestly, wouldn't you?

I am sorry this YA whine about people picking on Trump. Trump brings it on himself, by keeping the argument going. If he would STFU with his endless need to proclaim his innocence, his lack of responsibility for anything the slightest bit negative, he (and YA) would find less argument coming from his critics. He would only get heat for the most recent fubars and I suspect he would be given more of a break on those as this is a difficult job and everyone knows it.

I agree I would rather have Pence and I (in normal times) like him and his positions a whole lot less than I do Trump and his!! I would take a governor that I have basic philosophical differences with (Hogan) and have not voted for in a second over either one of them. The Trumpnista have brain washed themselves into thinking this is all about "getting Trump". Its political. Grow up. It is not. It is about basic competence and leadership. Trump is so out of the league when compared to both of the others.

[Bart]

In case anyone here is genuinely interested in original analysis, which btw would require you not bring any partisan angle to this issue (foreverlax convinced me yesterday that absolutely zero Democrats care much anymore about fact-gathering), I'd suggest taking the time to read the following, incredibly well-laid out, data-driven, debunking of the hysteria in this country over Covid-19. If you find anything wrong in this man's report, feel free to post. As far as I am concerned, he has the answer and we will be back to business within 2 months tops.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Data is data. Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal. I hope you walk away with a more informed perspective on how you can help and fight back against the hysteria that is driving our country into a dark place. You can help us focus our scarce resources on those who are most vulnerable, who need our help.

First, he (author) is a Silicon Valley technologist - no real expertise on pandemics. So everything he says has to be viewed within that light. Also the founder of the Lincoln Project, and pretty deeply involved in R politics (including Koch funding). Understanding the author and where he comes from is always useful.

Lots of misuse of data from my perspective. He has this whole section about a bell curve as if he can actually predict for the US when the peak will occur. He cannot - the information is not in the data yet. The whole thing about per capita has some limited value, and the US does have the advantage compared with other countries in that we have a lower average population density. But the US is also quite mobile, and with our lack of testing we have essentially spread the virus all over the country without knowing where it might be.

But the essential problem is he is making predictions on his "knowledge" of data, not on actual science of epidemics/pandemics. And any predictions on actual effects are meaningless in the face of rapidly changing situations on the ground with respect to social distancing, lockdowns, shutdowns, etc.

He is essentially misusing statistics to argue a political point (which is exactly what you would expect given that the Lincoln Project is actually his political project).

Also, just because the virus is sensitive to UV light does NOT mean that it will die down in the summer. It might slow the spread or it might not, but that is a speculation not yet evident in the data. BTW, look at the progression in Australia, coming of a hot summer. Still taking off like gangbusters.

This is a bit like Trump's hope that we can just fix this with some old drugs in new combinations. It _might_ be possible, but we do not actually know the answer. We can hope, but in the meantime we need to run the trials.

So I don't see a lot of value in his piece other than to make people who want to believe there is some magic way out of this. Which is a public disservice at this point.

Marie Curie, chemist and physicist, (full disclosure: a true life hero of mine) once famously said: Be less curious about people and more curious about ideas

This author's background doesn't intrigue me at all, though as a Lincoln Project founder' (?), I assume he hates Trump., So you and he have a bond!

That being said, he acknowledges at the outset that he is not an epidemiologist, but rather a numbers viralogist.

To your contention that he does not understand UV light and that this does not mean the virus will die down in the summer months, his source is this:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767

And this study directly contradicts it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20022467v1

There are always two sides to the coin. That how nerds work. Which one will win out will only tell after all the data is in.

I do find it interesting that much of the data and ideas are coming from the Chinese data set where the efforts to social distance are so much different here.

I'm not certain that one study which explicitly states that "weather alone may not lead to a drop in COVID-19" is a direct contradiction of the other study which states that weather can "facilitate" a drop in the spread. They in fact might be saying the same thing. Certainly not a contradiction.

Also, the University of Maryland has published a map tool, based on weather, predicting the spread:

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/new ... hrive.html

An further review...we will not need to wait for the data of other places. We have considerable areas not in the green. Most notably the redish yellow bands of Louisianan, Texas and Florida and most of California. I hope they are right.

I also saw a report pointing out that COVID19 has not yet hit parts of the world where anti-malaria immunizations are routinely administrated.

I had not thought about that. Smarter people out there than me thinking about this, for certain. That will be an interesting data point for certain.

[DocBarrister]

So NY,CA & WA are dumbass states ?

Thanks for this useless snark.

How much of our PPE stockpile was consumed doing testing, yielding 90% negatives,
...when we were headed for social distancing & lockdowns anyway ?

Around 100,000 tests have been done in the US so far. The PPE need is in the tens of millions.

Tell me that you honestly didn't know this.

Not snark. Serious questions.
So which states are the dumbass states & why ?

We have smart states and dumbass states. Unfortunately, we have an ununited states that’s allowing the spread.

That's 90,000 sets of PPE consumed on testing healthy negative subjects who have to take the same precautions anyway.
Is that a judicious use of a critical resource. Has PPE (vice test kits) become the long pole in the tent ?
We need tens of million sets of PPE if we ramp up testing as planned, rather than conserving it to protect the med personnel treating the sick.
Does testing need to stay limited until the PPE supply necessary to implement it (without degrading urgent care) catches up ?

Neither the lack of testing kits nor the lack of PPEs should have ever become an issue. We now know that there were concerning intelligence briefings about coronavirus as early as January. Trump is notorious for skipping in-person intelligence briefings and never reading intelligence briefing materials.

I believe Trump when he suggests he was blindsided by this. But that’s all on him ... he shouldn’t have been blindsided at all. Tens of thousands of Americans are going to pay the price for Trump’s willful neglect.

DocBarrister

Not sure how he could have remained oblivious throughout February. I can sorta understand, given his widely reported laziness regarding intelligence briefings, how he could have been a couple steps behind in mid to late January, but surely he was "hearing" the alarm bells throughout February.

Nope, not "blindsided". He knew. But he lied anyway.

Just like he did yesterday when he said he hadn't heard reports that people with symptoms couldn't get tests because there weren't enough available. The day before he was repeatedly told this by Governor after Governor, as they had done in the prior calls with him. Just a lie.

I don’t think we are necessarily disagreeing on anything. I think Trump has serious mental and cognitive disabilities. His malignant narcissism really can delude him into believing things he wants to believe and not believing things he doesn’t. Occasionally, reality intrudes, which can result in uncontrolled outbursts like the one we saw yesterday. He knowingly lies, yes, but he is also severely mentally ill. I am convinced of that now.

Mike Pence’s sycophantic allegiance to Trump borders on being criminal.

DocBarrister

[RedFromMI]

Back to the weather/humidity thing:

(From Josh Marshall at TPM)

*** Seasonality has been one of the big unknowns about COVID-19. Will it ebb into the Spring and Summer as weather gets warmer, as flu and colds generally do? Here are two just posted and as-yet un-peer-reviewed studies (one and two) which attempt to answer this question. First, it’s not just heat. It’s heat and humidity, which both play roles affecting the transmissibility of respiratory viruses and the relative strength of our immune systems. One study looks at cities in China in the short window of time between the beginning of aggressive tracking and the travel clampdown, adjusting for regional economic activity and population density. The other study looks at outbreaks so far around the world. They both find significant correlation between efficiency of spread and cool/temperate and dry weather. This obviously does not mean “good news, it’ll go away in May!” One critical thing to remember is that COVID-19 is a virgin soil epidemic. It has huge advantages over established colds and flus to which the global population has significant built-in immunity. But in conjunction with social distancing and other measures, this could mean some relative let up in the summer and return in the fall. Also significant, this could mean it may never hit Africa and tropical regions with quite the same force. That’s obviously a huge deal in itself since these countries lack robust health care systems.

[MDlaxfan76]

In case anyone here is genuinely interested in original analysis, which btw would require you not bring any partisan angle to this issue (foreverlax convinced me yesterday that absolutely zero Democrats care much anymore about fact-gathering), I'd suggest taking the time to read the following, incredibly well-laid out, data-driven, debunking of the hysteria in this country over Covid-19. If you find anything wrong in this man's report, feel free to post. As far as I am concerned, he has the answer and we will be back to business within 2 months tops.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Data is data. Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal. I hope you walk away with a more informed perspective on how you can help and fight back against the hysteria that is driving our country into a dark place. You can help us focus our scarce resources on those who are most vulnerable, who need our help.

First, he (author) is a Silicon Valley technologist - no real expertise on pandemics. So everything he says has to be viewed within that light. Also the founder of the Lincoln Project, and pretty deeply involved in R politics (including Koch funding). Understanding the author and where he comes from is always useful.

Lots of misuse of data from my perspective. He has this whole section about a bell curve as if he can actually predict for the US when the peak will occur. He cannot - the information is not in the data yet. The whole thing about per capita has some limited value, and the US does have the advantage compared with other countries in that we have a lower average population density. But the US is also quite mobile, and with our lack of testing we have essentially spread the virus all over the country without knowing where it might be.

But the essential problem is he is making predictions on his "knowledge" of data, not on actual science of epidemics/pandemics. And any predictions on actual effects are meaningless in the face of rapidly changing situations on the ground with respect to social distancing, lockdowns, shutdowns, etc.

He is essentially misusing statistics to argue a political point (which is exactly what you would expect given that the Lincoln Project is actually his political project).

Also, just because the virus is sensitive to UV light does NOT mean that it will die down in the summer. It might slow the spread or it might not, but that is a speculation not yet evident in the data. BTW, look at the progression in Australia, coming of a hot summer. Still taking off like gangbusters.

This is a bit like Trump's hope that we can just fix this with some old drugs in new combinations. It _might_ be possible, but we do not actually know the answer. We can hope, but in the meantime we need to run the trials.

So I don't see a lot of value in his piece other than to make people who want to believe there is some magic way out of this. Which is a public disservice at this point.

Marie Curie, chemist and physicist, (full disclosure: a true life hero of mine) once famously said: Be less curious about people and more curious about ideas

This author's background doesn't intrigue me at all, though as a Lincoln Project founder' (?), I assume he hates Trump., So you and he have a bond!

That being said, he acknowledges at the outset that he is not an epidemiologist, but rather a numbers viralogist.

To your contention that he does not understand UV light and that this does not mean the virus will die down in the summer months, his source is this:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767

And this study directly contradicts it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20022467v1

There are always two sides to the coin. That how nerds work. Which one will win out will only tell after all the data is in.

I do find it interesting that much of the data and ideas are coming from the Chinese data set where the efforts to social distance are so much different here.

I'm not certain that one study which explicitly states that "weather alone may not lead to a drop in COVID-19" is a direct contradiction of the other study which states that weather can "facilitate" a drop in the spread. They in fact might be saying the same thing. Certainly not a contradiction.

Also, the University of Maryland has published a map tool, based on weather, predicting the spread:

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/new ... hrive.html

An further review...we will not need to wait for the data of other places. We have considerable areas not in the green. Most notably the redish yellow bands of Louisianan, Texas and Florida and most of California. I hope they are right.

I also saw a report pointing out that COVID19 has not yet hit parts of the world where anti-malaria immunizations are routinely administrated.

I had not thought about that. Smarter people out there than me thinking about this, for certain. That will be an interesting data point for certain.

causal, or correlated?
we don't know yet, but whatever works, will be good news.

[old salt]

JHU72:
I would take a governor that I have basic philosophical differences with (Hogan) and have not voted for in a second over either one of them.

So based on your voting record, you'd rather have 1st term, inexperienced Governor Ben Jealous leading us through this crisis, than 2nd term experienced Governor Larry Hogan (who was elected President of the National Governors Assn by his fellow Governors).
Solid, nonpartisan choice.

[MDlaxfan76]

Back to the weather/humidity thing:

(From Josh Marshall at TPM)

*** Seasonality has been one of the big unknowns about COVID-19. Will it ebb into the Spring and Summer as weather gets warmer, as flu and colds generally do? Here are two just posted and as-yet un-peer-reviewed studies (one and two) which attempt to answer this question. First, it’s not just heat. It’s heat and humidity, which both play roles affecting the transmissibility of respiratory viruses and the relative strength of our immune systems. One study looks at cities in China in the short window of time between the beginning of aggressive tracking and the travel clampdown, adjusting for regional economic activity and population density. The other study looks at outbreaks so far around the world. They both find significant correlation between efficiency of spread and cool/temperate and dry weather. This obviously does not mean “good news, it’ll go away in May!” One critical thing to remember is that COVID-19 is a virgin soil epidemic. It has huge advantages over established colds and flus to which the global population has significant built-in immunity. But in conjunction with social distancing and other measures, this could mean some relative let up in the summer and return in the fall. Also significant, this could mean it may never hit Africa and tropical regions with quite the same force. That’s obviously a huge deal in itself since these countries lack robust health care systems.

Very possible. Let's hope so.
Unfortunately, I think he's right about it being a reduction in transmission not an elimination.

Best case, we'll need intensive surveillance testing by fall, with targeted quarantining, and continued social distancing practices by the rest of us.

[MDlaxfan76]

JHU72:
I would take a governor that I have basic philosophical differences with (Hogan) and have not voted for in a second over either one of them.

So based on your voting record, you'd rather have 1st term, inexperienced Governor Ben Jealous leading us through this crisis, than 2nd term experienced Governor Larry Hogan (who was elected President of the National Governors Assn by his fellow Governors).
Solid, nonpartisan choice.

He said he'd prefer Hogan over Trump.

[ggait]

I also saw a report pointing out that COVID19 has not yet hit parts of the world where anti-malaria immunizations are routinely administrated.

I had not thought about that. Smarter people out there than me thinking about this, for certain. That will be an interesting data point for certain.

Could be the anti-malarial at work. Could be a hundred other things too. A few off the top after two minutes of thought:

1. Those would tend to be hot places. So maybe that's a sign that the virus may burn out seasonally.

2. Those would tend to be poor places. So places with low rates of tourism (in or out) and travel generally.

3. Those might be rural places. So places where the pop density is low and the people generally are already socially distanced.

4. These places, for a variety of factors including #2 and #3), could just be behind in time other places like Italy. But not really different.

Correlation not always causation.

[old salt]

Thank you Dr Fauci for just making the same point I've been making about testing consuming scare PPE supplies.

[DocBarrister]

In case anyone here is genuinely interested in original analysis, which btw would require you not bring any partisan angle to this issue (foreverlax convinced me yesterday that absolutely zero Democrats care much anymore about fact-gathering), I'd suggest taking the time to read the following, incredibly well-laid out, data-driven, debunking of the hysteria in this country over Covid-19. If you find anything wrong in this man's report, feel free to post. As far as I am concerned, he has the answer and we will be back to business within 2 months tops.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Data is data. Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal. I hope you walk away with a more informed perspective on how you can help and fight back against the hysteria that is driving our country into a dark place. You can help us focus our scarce resources on those who are most vulnerable, who need our help.

First, he (author) is a Silicon Valley technologist - no real expertise on pandemics. So everything he says has to be viewed within that light. Also the founder of the Lincoln Project, and pretty deeply involved in R politics (including Koch funding). Understanding the author and where he comes from is always useful.

Lots of misuse of data from my perspective. He has this whole section about a bell curve as if he can actually predict for the US when the peak will occur. He cannot - the information is not in the data yet. The whole thing about per capita has some limited value, and the US does have the advantage compared with other countries in that we have a lower average population density. But the US is also quite mobile, and with our lack of testing we have essentially spread the virus all over the country without knowing where it might be.

But the essential problem is he is making predictions on his "knowledge" of data, not on actual science of epidemics/pandemics. And any predictions on actual effects are meaningless in the face of rapidly changing situations on the ground with respect to social distancing, lockdowns, shutdowns, etc.

He is essentially misusing statistics to argue a political point (which is exactly what you would expect given that the Lincoln Project is actually his political project).

Also, just because the virus is sensitive to UV light does NOT mean that it will die down in the summer. It might slow the spread or it might not, but that is a speculation not yet evident in the data. BTW, look at the progression in Australia, coming of a hot summer. Still taking off like gangbusters.

This is a bit like Trump's hope that we can just fix this with some old drugs in new combinations. It _might_ be possible, but we do not actually know the answer. We can hope, but in the meantime we need to run the trials.

So I don't see a lot of value in his piece other than to make people who want to believe there is some magic way out of this. Which is a public disservice at this point.

Marie Curie, chemist and physicist, (full disclosure: a true life hero of mine) once famously said: Be less curious about people and more curious about ideas

This author's background doesn't intrigue me at all, though as a Lincoln Project founder' (?), I assume he hates Trump., So you and he have a bond!

That being said, he acknowledges at the outset that he is not an epidemiologist, but rather a numbers viralogist.

To your contention that he does not understand UV light and that this does not mean the virus will die down in the summer months, his source is this:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767

And this study directly contradicts it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20022467v1

There are always two sides to the coin. That how nerds work. Which one will win out will only tell after all the data is in.

I do find it interesting that much of the data and ideas are coming from the Chinese data set where the efforts to social distance are so much different here.

I'm not certain that one study which explicitly states that "weather alone may not lead to a drop in COVID-19" is a direct contradiction of the other study which states that weather can "facilitate" a drop in the spread. They in fact might be saying the same thing. Certainly not a contradiction.

Also, the University of Maryland has published a map tool, based on weather, predicting the spread:

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/new ... hrive.html

An further review...we will not need to wait for the data of other places. We have considerable areas not in the green. Most notably the redish yellow bands of Louisianan, Texas and Florida and most of California. I hope they are right.

I also saw a report pointing out that COVID19 has not yet hit parts of the world where anti-malaria immunizations are routinely administrated.

I had not thought about that. Smarter people out there than me thinking about this, for certain. That will be an interesting data point for certain.

causal, or correlated?
we don't know yet, but whatever works, will be good news.

It is not true that Africa has not yet been hit by coronavirus. They are lagging behind other parts of the world just as South Korea lagged behind China, and Europe and the United States lagged behind East Asia. Africa is showing sure signs that the pandemic is starting to take hold there.


There are reasons for concern already. First, though case numbers are still low, confirmed cases in the area have increased rapidly to 233 on Wednesday, with 25 countries affected. In South Africa, cases have doubled within two days to reach 62 confirmed cases. Senegal has reported 27 cases and Burkina Faso 20. In some countries, a shift is occurring from “imported” cases to local transmission, suggesting that the virus might be starting to circulate within communities.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ronavirus/

So, the entire premise of this speculation is flawed.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

I also saw a report pointing out that COVID19 has not yet hit parts of the world where anti-malaria immunizations are routinely administrated.

I had not thought about that. Smarter people out there than me thinking about this, for certain. That will be an interesting data point for certain.

Could be the anti-malarial at work. Could be a hundred other things too. A few off the top:

1. Those would tend to be hot places. So maybe that's a sign that the virus may burn out seasonally.

2. Those would tend to be poor places. So places with low rates of tourism (in or out) and travel generally.

3. Those might be rural places. So places where the pop density is low and the people generally are already socially distanced.

Correlation not always causation.

That may all be true, but there are urban centers in those same countries & many have extensive business ties with China (which Italy has btw).
Australia's pretty hot now too. So is Thailand.

[ggait]

I'd love for the chloroquine thing to pan out. If it did, we'd all be super-lucky.

We should know pretty soon. But hoping for a lucky break isn't the best plan.

[jhu72]

In case anyone here is genuinely interested in original analysis, which btw would require you not bring any partisan angle to this issue (foreverlax convinced me yesterday that absolutely zero Democrats care much anymore about fact-gathering), I'd suggest taking the time to read the following, incredibly well-laid out, data-driven, debunking of the hysteria in this country over Covid-19. If you find anything wrong in this man's report, feel free to post. As far as I am concerned, he has the answer and we will be back to business within 2 months tops.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Data is data. Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal. I hope you walk away with a more informed perspective on how you can help and fight back against the hysteria that is driving our country into a dark place. You can help us focus our scarce resources on those who are most vulnerable, who need our help.

First, he (author) is a Silicon Valley technologist - no real expertise on pandemics. So everything he says has to be viewed within that light. Also the founder of the Lincoln Project, and pretty deeply involved in R politics (including Koch funding). Understanding the author and where he comes from is always useful.

Lots of misuse of data from my perspective. He has this whole section about a bell curve as if he can actually predict for the US when the peak will occur. He cannot - the information is not in the data yet. The whole thing about per capita has some limited value, and the US does have the advantage compared with other countries in that we have a lower average population density. But the US is also quite mobile, and with our lack of testing we have essentially spread the virus all over the country without knowing where it might be.

But the essential problem is he is making predictions on his "knowledge" of data, not on actual science of epidemics/pandemics. And any predictions on actual effects are meaningless in the face of rapidly changing situations on the ground with respect to social distancing, lockdowns, shutdowns, etc.

He is essentially misusing statistics to argue a political point (which is exactly what you would expect given that the Lincoln Project is actually his political project).

Also, just because the virus is sensitive to UV light does NOT mean that it will die down in the summer. It might slow the spread or it might not, but that is a speculation not yet evident in the data. BTW, look at the progression in Australia, coming of a hot summer. Still taking off like gangbusters.

This is a bit like Trump's hope that we can just fix this with some old drugs in new combinations. It _might_ be possible, but we do not actually know the answer. We can hope, but in the meantime we need to run the trials.

So I don't see a lot of value in his piece other than to make people who want to believe there is some magic way out of this. Which is a public disservice at this point.

Marie Curie, chemist and physicist, (full disclosure: a true life hero of mine) once famously said: Be less curious about people and more curious about ideas

This author's background doesn't intrigue me at all, though as a Lincoln Project founder' (?), I assume he hates Trump., So you and he have a bond!

That being said, he acknowledges at the outset that he is not an epidemiologist, but rather a numbers viralogist.

To your contention that he does not understand UV light and that this does not mean the virus will die down in the summer months, his source is this:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767

And this study directly contradicts it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20022467v1

There are always two sides to the coin. That how nerds work. Which one will win out will only tell after all the data is in.

I do find it interesting that much of the data and ideas are coming from the Chinese data set where the efforts to social distance are so much different here.

I'm not certain that one study which explicitly states that "weather alone may not lead to a drop in COVID-19" is a direct contradiction of the other study which states that weather can "facilitate" a drop in the spread. They in fact might be saying the same thing. Certainly not a contradiction.

Also, the University of Maryland has published a map tool, based on weather, predicting the spread:

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/new ... hrive.html

An further review...we will not need to wait for the data of other places. We have considerable areas not in the green. Most notably the redish yellow bands of Louisianan, Texas and Florida and most of California. I hope they are right.

I also saw a report pointing out that COVID19 has not yet hit parts of the world where anti-malaria immunizations are routinely administrated.

I think you will find the drugs Trump has been touting are not really used much today for malaria. That was their original usage but time has passed them by. Other drugs are more effective and less expensive. In fact in some areas with the malaria parasite, the parasites have developed a resistance to chloroquine. The main use of those miracle cure drugs is for treatment of some autoimmune diseases. Now maybe there is some correlation with the malaria parasite and the class of drugs that fight it. Should be looked into.

[ardilla secreta]

JHU72:
I would take a governor that I have basic philosophical differences with (Hogan) and have not voted for in a second over either one of them.

So based on your voting record, you'd rather have 1st term, inexperienced Governor Ben Jealous leading us through this crisis, than 2nd term experienced Governor Larry Hogan (who was elected President of the National Governors Assn by his fellow Governors).
Solid, nonpartisan choice.

He said he'd prefer Hogan over Trump.

I would prefer a Hoagie to Trump. Mmmm

So Hanes is going to start making masks. Will be interesting to see how they modify a jock strap into a mask. Incredible.

[DocBarrister]

Thank you Dr Fauci for just making the same point I've been making about testing consuming scare PPE supplies.

The eminent Dr. Fauci has failed in this crisis ... very badly. His past accomplishments and well-earned reputation are shielding him now, especially in comparison with Trump, but with the passage of time, I think Dr. Fauci’s failings in this crisis will come in for some harsh commentary. He did not do enough, early enough. Still isn’t. Sadly, his efforts to stay involved (avoid getting fired) have led him to become an apologist of sorts for this administration.

It’s very sad and disturbing to watch Trump slowly corrupt even a man like Fauci.

DocBarrister