All things CoronaVirus

[cradleandshoot]

NBC reporting that todate only 59,000 test have been run in the US. --> .02% of the population

7324 cases reported --> 12.4% of tested are found to be positive
115 deaths --> 1.6% of reported, die

The actual reported death is 1.57% based on those numbers....and has been trending down the past couple days, with a blip spike yesterday.

The lowest possible error in that number (based on simple statistics) is +/- (1/√115)*1.57% = +/- 0.15%, so don't focus on the 3rd significant digit. Actual statistical error (from imperfect sampling etc) is undoubtedly much higher.

“Whenever I read statistical reports, I try to imagine my unfortunate contemporary, the Average Person, who, according to these reports, has 0.66 children, 0.032 cars, and 0.046 TVs.”
― Kato Lomb

[Trinity]

Sen. Ron Johnson:
"Getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3.4 percent of our population...probably far less."
"We don’t shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways"
jsonline.com/story/news/pol… via @journalsentinel

[cradleandshoot]

From an earlier discussion:

The thing with his presser dog and pony show is, HE COULD HAVE TAKEN ALL OF THESE ACTIONS TWO MONTHS AGO. I don't think the national emergency declaration had to be done then, but it could have been. I am glad he now seems to be moving in the right direction, but it does not make up for ignoring the experts for months, bungling the test kit issue, and the total lack of transparency up until recently and still no where near the needed transparency.

I'd really have to have a timeline, with certainty of facts, to truly buy into your argument. In the grand scheme of things, the US is is in a great spot, and frankly, much of the US virus infiltration came from travelers. All these actions taken today, could not have taken place, because as you noted earlier, testing required blood and (possible stool) samples, whereas now it is a drive-thru swab. You have to respect the fact that we did not get out over our skis and make matters worse with testing that could have been providing inaccurate results.

Thanks for this post JHU.....it does show that shutting travel down from china (23rd - 31st one week later) was crucial...but sadly, the exiting of the Wuhan crew had already set the wheels in motion. And we actually do not know when the announcement came from China that this is a no joke virus. Remember....we offered to get over there ASAP form our CDC/NIAID leader and they (China refused) did not want support. WE also wanted data, they offered none, many here said that data was not needed. Clearly, the data would have been worthy, and could have possibly expedited responses.

Corona Virus Timeline

Late November, Early December: Virus mutates to it's epidemic form as best scientists can determine the date
December: Through the month numerous cases of what was thought to be cold or flu are noted in Wuhan, later identified as epidemic form
January 7: China reported first case definitively tied to the epidemic form
January 13 - 16: Japan and Thailand reported first cases
January 17 - 19: US, Nepal, France, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan reported first cases
Prior to January 23, no Wuhan lockdown, people traveled from Wuhan to other Chinese cities as follows. The vast majority just going to their homes inside China.
JANUARY 23: China locks down Wuhan and surrounding area - this spread across China as authorities deemed necessary. Included travel interdiction, air, land, water.
JANUARY 31: Trump bans travel from China

Basically locking the barn door.

No, we knew of the need to get tests ready well before January 31. We actually knew of the new virus in December. Alarm bells had already gone off.

We should have been testing all inbound travelers from any areas suspected by at least mid January. We weren't even screening.

Much less throughout February we should have been testing all inbound. And all symptomatic patients and those they came into contact with ala SK over that period. They ramped up high surveillance testing fast.

By January 31 it was way too late to think we'd actually stop spread inside the US by banning travel from just China. Even if we'd done worldwide closed borders by that point it was too late. Already here.

Thus the imperative to have ramped up testing hugely.

Here we go again....God has spoken. You are so irrational.

Do you think I'm mistaken on some aspect, whether timeline or logic?
You do realize I'm not making it up as I go along, right?

You can not be mistaken....remember, you are god, just read your posts.
I realize all you do is criticize, cast blame, and pile on; essentially play back seat driver.

Plus he is the best damn morning quarterback known to mankind. If we had only handed this over to 72 way back in January he would have had the solution by September of 2019. 72 is just that damn good, just ask him.

[Trinity]

You got nothing, huh?

"People are dying who have never died before.”
@realDonaldTrump

[jhu72]

"Chinese virus" inflames anti-Chinese rhetoric. Trump knows damn well what he is doing. He and his deplorables must always have an enemy.

[cradleandshoot]

Sen. Ron Johnson:
"Getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3.4 percent of our population...probably far less."
"We don’t shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways"
jsonline.com/story/news/pol… via @journalsentinel

So i should believe statistics being put forth by both sides?? Can you prevent highway deaths by social distancing? I dunno, nothing makes any sense to me anymore.

[youthathletics]

Sen. Ron Johnson:
"Getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3.4 percent of our population...probably far less."
"We don’t shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways"
jsonline.com/story/news/pol… via @journalsentinel

So i should believe statistics being put forth by both sides?? Can you prevent highway deaths by social distancing? I dunno, nothing makes any sense to me anymore.

It depends who the president is, silly.

[cradleandshoot]

You got nothing, huh?

"People are dying who have never died before.”
@realDonaldTrump

If you want to get really technical, Trumps quote you posted is actually correct.

[cradleandshoot]

Sen. Ron Johnson:
"Getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3.4 percent of our population...probably far less."
"We don’t shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways"
jsonline.com/story/news/pol… via @journalsentinel

So i should believe statistics being put forth by both sides?? Can you prevent highway deaths by social distancing? I dunno, nothing makes any sense to me anymore.

It depends who the president is, silly.

I should know better.

[Trinity]

Ron Johnson is okay with thousands of deaths. It happens. Like car accidents and Russian assistance in campaigns.

[CU77]

and yet, the US death rate is damned near the lowest in the countries that have been hit the hardest.

Only because our TESTING is far below the rest of the world, because the Trump-led bureaucracy (which knew perfectly well that Trump wanted to paint rainbows and smiley faces over the problem and didn't want to hear bad news about it in the US) REFUSED TO USE the test that the rest of the world was using.

SPORADIC TESTING, as has been done in the US, MAKES THE COMPUTED DEATH RATE UNRELIABLE. We don't know what it really is, because the number of sick people tested is not yet large enough to determine it reliably.

And it's going to go UP once the hospital beds and ventilators are fully occupied, as they are in northern Italy.

Take the log out of your own eye.

Dude, please. You're the one who doesn't seem to grasp the concept of sampling error in statistical inference.

[kramerica.inc]

You can not be mistaken....remember, you are god, just read your posts.
I realize all you do is criticize, cast blame, and pile on; essentially play back seat driver.

*sigh* Taking cues from their Dear Leader, another trumpista resorts to ad hominem attacks.

Yes we are criticizing and casting blame, because Trump and his coterie of ass-kissing yesmen and relatives has effed it up royally. See, for just one tiny example, my recent post on the clusterf* of how the europe travel ban was rolled out. Or my post with the Foreign Affaris article on how Obama's transition staff conducted a pandemic exercise for Trump and his clueless minions (e.g. Flynn, who was out a month later and is now a convicted criminal).

Why are we doing this? Because some of us still have a dim dim hope that some of you trumpistas will eventually muster the ability to open your eyes, and help the country out by helping us to dislodge these clowns in November, before they can do god-knows-what more damage.

Let's use your logic and critcisim of our POTUS admin. By your logic, every country that is experiencing this virus, has a horrible president. Why, because each of those countries ALSO has essentially the same exact problems.....and yet, the US death rate is damned near the lowest in the countries that have been hit the hardest.

Take the log out of your own eye.

It will all come out in the hearings.

Meanwhile, what was the left fully focused on in November- January? What was the right doing? What was the Senate and Congress doing?

Prepping for this? Oh wait, they were all pushing/fighting that awesome, super productive, impeachment. How did that work out? Did the left win? How about the right? What did we get out of that?

Appreciate all the hard work Congress and Senate was getting done in Nov-Jan while Corona was ravaging China and prepping to spread globally.

All these politicians are asshats. I said it months ago- the Imprachment was a huge waste of time, money, and ultimately, lives.

[cradleandshoot]

Ron Johnson is okay with thousands of deaths. It happens. Like car accidents and Russian assistance in campaigns.

I am reminded of an old army marching cadence. " here we go again, same old chit again" Why don't we just hit the freaking reset button about the Russian stuff. That is what HRC would want you all to do.

[Typical Lax Dad]

and yet, the US death rate is damned near the lowest in the countries that have been hit the hardest.

Only because our TESTING is far below the rest of the world, because the Trump-led bureaucracy (which knew perfectly well that Trump wanted to paint rainbows and smiley faces over the problem and didn't want to hear bad news about it in the US) REFUSED TO USE the test that the rest of the world was using.

SPORADIC TESTING, as has been done in the US, MAKES THE COMPUTED DEATH RATE UNRELIABLE. We don't know what it really is, because the number of sick people tested is not yet large enough to determine it reliably.

And it's going to go UP once the hospital beds and ventilators are fully occupied, as they are in northern Italy.

Take the log out of your own eye.

Dude, please. You're the one who doesn't seem to grasp the concept of sampling error in statistical inference.

And I don’t believe you can determine, Post Mortem, if Coronavirus has already been killing people.

[youthathletics]

and yet, the US death rate is damned near the lowest in the countries that have been hit the hardest.

Only because our TESTING is far below the rest of the world, because the Trump-led bureaucracy (which knew perfectly well that Trump wanted to paint rainbows and smiley faces over the problem and didn't want to hear bad news about it in the US) REFUSED TO USE the test that the rest of the world was using.

SPORADIC TESTING, as has been done in the US, MAKES THE COMPUTED DEATH RATE UNRELIABLE. We don't know what it really is, because the number of sick people tested is not yet large enough to determine it reliably.

And it's going to go UP once the hospital beds and ventilators are fully occupied, as they are in northern Italy.

Take the log out of your own eye.

Dude, please. You're the one who doesn't seem to grasp the concept of sampling error in statistical inference.

Did you read what you wrote....we need testing to see if people died.

Hey tough stat guy.....if more tests are done, and there are more positive results, with the low death rates, what happens to the % of death rates?

How convenient, you parsed my reply back to you and avoided my rebuttal that called out your simpleton 'logic' about #orangemanbad vs every other president going through the same thing, as if the good ole' US of A is the outlier of problamatic concern. #weaksauce

[CU77]

Appreciate all the hard work Congress and Senate was getting done in Nov-Jan while Corona was ravaging China and prepping to spread globally.

This a national security issue, squarely in the domain of the executive branch.

Trump disbanded the White House pandemic response team in 2018 the day after one of its members said publicly that pandemics don't stop at borders.

That's the kind of leadership we have now. That's the kind of leadership you support.

[CU77]

Did you read what you wrote....we need testing to see if people died.

Uh, no, we need testing to know whether people WHO HAVE COVID19 live or die.

Hey tough stat guy.....if more tests are done, and there are more positive results, withthe same slow death rate, what happens to the % of death rates?

You still don't understand the concept of statistical error.

You know how polls always have a "margin of error"? You ask a thousand people the day before the election if they're going to vote for Trump, 500 say yes. Do you expect Trump to get exactly 50% of the hundred million votes on election day?

That's the problem with the current US "death rate". It's like a poll with a very very low sampling rate.

How convenient, you parsed my reply back to you and avoided my rebuttal that called out your simpleton 'logic' about #orangemanbad vs every other president going through the same thing, as if the good ole' US of A is the outlier of problamatic concern. #weaksauce

Trump is making it worse than it has to be for us, as in the totally botched roll-out of the Europe travel ban that needlessly and senselessly exposed thousands of Americans by co-mingling everyone, including known Covid19 carriers, at airports. Does that sort of incompetence matter to you? It does to me.

Then there were the weeks spent denouncing concerns as a Democrat/media hoax. Does that sort of incompetence matter to you? It does to me.

[jhu72]

You can not be mistaken....remember, you are god, just read your posts.
I realize all you do is criticize, cast blame, and pile on; essentially play back seat driver.

*sigh* Taking cues from their Dear Leader, another trumpista resorts to ad hominem attacks.

Yes we are criticizing and casting blame, because Trump and his coterie of ass-kissing yesmen and relatives has effed it up royally. See, for just one tiny example, my recent post on the clusterf* of how the europe travel ban was rolled out. Or my post with the Foreign Affaris article on how Obama's transition staff conducted a pandemic exercise for Trump and his clueless minions (e.g. Flynn, who was out a month later and is now a convicted criminal).

Why are we doing this? Because some of us still have a dim dim hope that some of you trumpistas will eventually muster the ability to open your eyes, and help the country out by helping us to dislodge these clowns in November, before they can do god-knows-what more damage.

Let's use your logic and critcisim of our POTUS admin. By your logic, every country that is experiencing this virus, has a horrible president. Why, because each of those countries ALSO has essentially the same exact problems.....and yet, the US death rate is damned near the lowest in the countries that have been hit the hardest.

Take the log out of your own eye.

Damn near the lowest, at 7 times that of Germany? Twice that of SK? It is pretty much the same as France. I would not characterize it as "damn near the lowest".

[RedFromMI]

Ron Johnson is okay with thousands of deaths. It happens. Like car accidents and Russian assistance in campaigns.

If the death rate is only one percent, and since no humans have immunity to this, if a quarter of the US population (roughly 55 million people) get this virus because we do not do a good job of testing/quarantine/social distancing you are looking at 550,000 deaths. Is he OK with that?

[youthathletics]

Interesting tidbit: Avoid taking ibuprofen for COVID-19 symptoms: WHO

https://www.yahoo.com/news/avoid-taking ... 07508.html