Certain?youthathletics wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:32 amI read YOUR WORDS and replied to YOUR WORDS not speculation. You actually are certain that 150 Million people are getting this thing? Your words (40%-60%) and that roughly 35mm (10% less than your 15-17%) will need serious care?MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:22 amgood lord, youth, your cluelessness or perhaps its stubbornness do concern me.youthathletics wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:58 amAre you implying that roughly ~5000 sicknesses have crushed our medical facilities and then in the same breath blaming the administration for that? To me, that says our medical infrastructure is quite poor and their planning had no contingencies for pandemic.....I believe Tony Fauci admitted that. Enough of the Orange Man Bad b/c it fits a narrative. If the USA is going to be bent over grabbing their ankles by ~ 5000 illnesses, then we are eff'd...full stop.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:38 amI think that's right Bart.Bart wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:35 amNo, I think we would still be there. Tests and all that are things to quibble about by people with more intellect than myself but to me, yesterday was the first time I have seen the President face the reality of what the potential would actually be when he said "we do not have this under control". For me, and this is for me only, it would have been much more reassuring to hear him say this weeks ago and indicate that he would listen to his scientific advisers moving forward. The fact that he indicated he had an innate (my characterization and perception)ability to understand all this at the level of the professionals at the CDC and NIH lost a ton of credibility for me. I know accomplished scientists at both of those institutions and there was nothing innate about about how they got there. Several of these people were always "the smartest person in the room" but to get to the point they are in was not innate but lots of hard work and study. That is my issue.6ftstick wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:23 am So if Trump wasn't president.
We wouldn't be self quarantined in our homes?
Professional and college sports wouldn't have been canceled?
Schools restaurants and bars wouldn't be locked down?
Social distancing wouldn't be the prescription for 300 million plus Americans?
The stock market wouldn't have collapsed under all this uncertainty?
We wouldn't still be trying to bend the curve?
What would be different?
6ft, more to your question, yes, we'd have needed to go through social distancing and economic contraction.
Inescapable given the nature of the virus.
But that's not the whole story.
Had we admitted the coming reality and properly prioritized resources, testing first and foremost, the depths and lengths of the challenge could have been greatly reduced. Not eliminated, greatly reduced.
Likewise, had we prioritized ventilators, masks, gowns, training, hospital beds, etc, instead of being way, way, way behind in all of these, the impact would have been greatly reduced. Not eliminated, greatly reduced.
To further argue that "training" was not ready.....that also speaks to poor planning medical infrastructure problems.....that reaches far, far, far, beyond any one administration. Our military, first respondents do nothing but training for the "worst" case scenario. TO the end, I can see how this snowballs into gov't run healthcare...much like our military....which is always quite strong and prepared.
NO ONE is implying that 5,000 illnesses crush a darn thing...please read the estimations of what's building fast.
40-60% of population will eventually contract it, 15-17% will need serious care, hospitalization.
Multiply it out and report back to us that you can actually do math.
When this math became apparent, we needed to immediately ramp up all aspects. That was over two months ago. Arguably 3 months ago.
We're now, way, way behind.
Come on man.
No, but that's exactly the sort of scale of what is predicted (by the scientists) as contracted if we don't successfully slow the rapid spread.
Not sure how you did your "math" on hospitalizations, but try again.
15% of 150 million is 22.5 million hospitalizations. But you have the scale close.
There is a much higher rate of serious complications, not just mortality, with this virus than the flu.
Million+ dead. Maybe 4 million. Directly related to having virus.
The actual hospitalizations won't happen as we won't be able to take them in, people will just die at home.
So, too, will others not able to get into the hospital.
The hope is that we can slow down the spread, spread it out over many months, such that we can get enough beds, enough supplies, ventilators, etc to handle the crush.
They're very, very worried that they won't blunt it enough.
But let's sure as heck hope (and pray) that the curve is flattened enough to avoid the high end of these estimates.
