All things CoronaVirus

[CU88]

NYT has dropped its paywall for articles on the C-19:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/c ... ticleShare

Look at this graph!

[Typical Lax Dad]

So if Trump wasn't president.

We wouldn't be self quarantined in our homes?

Professional and college sports wouldn't have been canceled?

Schools restaurants and bars wouldn't be locked down?

Social distancing wouldn't be the prescription for 300 million plus Americans?

The stock market wouldn't have collapsed under all this uncertainty?

We wouldn't still be trying to bend the curve?

What would be different?

No, I think we would still be there. Tests and all that are things to quibble about by people with more intellect than myself but to me, yesterday was the first time I have seen the President face the reality of what the potential would actually be when he said "we do not have this under control". For me, and this is for me only, it would have been much more reassuring to hear him say this weeks ago and indicate that he would listen to his scientific advisers moving forward. The fact that he indicated he had an innate (my characterization and perception)ability to understand all this at the level of the professionals at the CDC and NIH lost a ton of credibility for me. I know accomplished scientists at both of those institutions and there was nothing innate about about how they got there. Several of these people were always "the smartest person in the room" but to get to the point they are in was not innate but lots of hard work and study. That is my issue.

We also need to look behind the curtain.

As I mentioned last week in a post, on good authority, from a contact at the pentagon, the end plan is to lock us all down. That can not be done by merely flipping a light switch, without unintended consequences that would result in immediate mass hysteria.

There is certainly a MOP (Method of Procedure) in place for things like this, they are IMO, slow rolling the shutdown/lockdown, in an attempt to buy time to see/measure how incremental changes are occurring, and to be certain families are stocking for much worse than currently happening.

If this is the case (red line), then how do you roll out the message in a proper way? I still feel there are lots of people who believe this is not a problem at all, there are still Governors who are not embracing social distancing. Look at the FLa beaches right now. We have been told to just get enough for a week.......... The shock of the change in message abruptly, IMO, will lead to the mass hysteria you indicate in your first paragraph.

Bart - I do not know all the specific detail's, I just know that my source articulated the end goal is to get to lock down....not necessarily abruptly (sorry if I articulated it that way). Take a step back and just notice how the walls are slowly closing in.

Everyone has the same source. “One was in a 3 hour meeting and then told family”...Another “was told by a brother”...I can’t remember the 3rd story I heard yesterday.

[CU88]

Months of mocking science didn’t work so now it’s serious.

If the scientists don't know the answers, dont try and dazzle us all with sheepdip. All they have to do is admit they dont know what they dont know. I have actually heard some docs on TV admit just that. There is much they dont know. They are working to understand what they are dealing with.

Thank goodness the WH had a National Day of Prayer!

https://www.cnsnews.com/article/washing ... s-affected

That was real F#@king helpful...

[Bart]

This is a quick and interesting read about the virus. Not a ton of meat to it but you can piggy back to other more detailed analysis if you choose.

https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/cente ... dford.html

[Bart]

So if Trump wasn't president.

We wouldn't be self quarantined in our homes?

Professional and college sports wouldn't have been canceled?

Schools restaurants and bars wouldn't be locked down?

Social distancing wouldn't be the prescription for 300 million plus Americans?

The stock market wouldn't have collapsed under all this uncertainty?

We wouldn't still be trying to bend the curve?

What would be different?

No, I think we would still be there. Tests and all that are things to quibble about by people with more intellect than myself but to me, yesterday was the first time I have seen the President face the reality of what the potential would actually be when he said "we do not have this under control". For me, and this is for me only, it would have been much more reassuring to hear him say this weeks ago and indicate that he would listen to his scientific advisers moving forward. The fact that he indicated he had an innate (my characterization and perception)ability to understand all this at the level of the professionals at the CDC and NIH lost a ton of credibility for me. I know accomplished scientists at both of those institutions and there was nothing innate about about how they got there. Several of these people were always "the smartest person in the room" but to get to the point they are in was not innate but lots of hard work and study. That is my issue.

We also need to look behind the curtain.

As I mentioned last week in a post, on good authority, from a contact at the pentagon, the end plan is to lock us all down. That can not be done by merely flipping a light switch, without unintended consequences that would result in immediate mass hysteria.

There is certainly a MOP (Method of Procedure) in place for things like this, they are IMO, slow rolling the shutdown/lockdown, in an attempt to buy time to see/measure how incremental changes are occurring, and to be certain families are stocking for much worse than currently happening.

If this is the case (red line), then how do you roll out the message in a proper way? I still feel there are lots of people who believe this is not a problem at all, there are still Governors who are not embracing social distancing. Look at the FLa beaches right now. We have been told to just get enough for a week.......... The shock of the change in message abruptly, IMO, will lead to the mass hysteria you indicate in your first paragraph.

Bart - I do not know all the specific detail's, I just know that my source articulated the end goal is to get to lock down....not necessarily abruptly (sorry if I articulated it that way). Take a step back and just notice how the walls are slowly closing in.

I was not disagreeing just looking for clarification. Thanks.

[youthathletics]

So if Trump wasn't president.

We wouldn't be self quarantined in our homes?

Professional and college sports wouldn't have been canceled?

Schools restaurants and bars wouldn't be locked down?

Social distancing wouldn't be the prescription for 300 million plus Americans?

The stock market wouldn't have collapsed under all this uncertainty?

We wouldn't still be trying to bend the curve?

What would be different?

No, I think we would still be there. Tests and all that are things to quibble about by people with more intellect than myself but to me, yesterday was the first time I have seen the President face the reality of what the potential would actually be when he said "we do not have this under control". For me, and this is for me only, it would have been much more reassuring to hear him say this weeks ago and indicate that he would listen to his scientific advisers moving forward. The fact that he indicated he had an innate (my characterization and perception)ability to understand all this at the level of the professionals at the CDC and NIH lost a ton of credibility for me. I know accomplished scientists at both of those institutions and there was nothing innate about about how they got there. Several of these people were always "the smartest person in the room" but to get to the point they are in was not innate but lots of hard work and study. That is my issue.

I think that's right Bart.

6ft, more to your question, yes, we'd have needed to go through social distancing and economic contraction.
Inescapable given the nature of the virus.

But that's not the whole story.

Had we admitted the coming reality and properly prioritized resources, testing first and foremost, the depths and lengths of the challenge could have been greatly reduced. Not eliminated, greatly reduced.

Likewise, had we prioritized ventilators, masks, gowns, training, hospital beds, etc, instead of being way, way, way behind in all of these, the impact would have been greatly reduced. Not eliminated, greatly reduced.

Are you implying that roughly ~5000 sicknesses have crushed our medical facilities and then in the same breath blaming the administration for that? To me, that says our medical infrastructure is quite poor and their planning had no contingencies for pandemic.....I believe Tony Fauci admitted that. Enough of the Orange Man Bad b/c it fits a narrative. If the USA is going to be bent over grabbing their ankles by ~ 5000 illnesses, then we are eff'd...full stop.

To further argue that "training" was not ready.....that also speaks to poor planning medical infrastructure problems.....that reaches far, far, far, beyond any one administration. Our military, first respondents do nothing but training for the "worst" case scenario. TO the end, I can see how this snowballs into gov't run healthcare...much like our military....which is always quite strong and prepared.

[youthathletics]

Months of mocking science didn’t work so now it’s serious.

If the scientists don't know the answers, dont try and dazzle us all with sheepdip. All they have to do is admit they dont know what they dont know. I have actually heard some docs on TV admit just that. There is much they dont know. They are working to understand what they are dealing with.

Thank goodness the WH had a National Day of Prayer!

https://www.cnsnews.com/article/washing ... s-affected

That was real F#@king helpful...

Your response clearly explains why it is a good thing. I am not worried at all, I am also not being vacuous about it...you? not so much.

[RedFromMI]

NYT has dropped its paywall for articles on the C-19:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/c ... ticleShare

Look at this graph!

Note the date range when this begins to fall apart...
(about the end of April/beginning of May)

[MDlaxfan76]

So if Trump wasn't president.

We wouldn't be self quarantined in our homes?

Professional and college sports wouldn't have been canceled?

Schools restaurants and bars wouldn't be locked down?

Social distancing wouldn't be the prescription for 300 million plus Americans?

The stock market wouldn't have collapsed under all this uncertainty?

We wouldn't still be trying to bend the curve?

What would be different?

No, I think we would still be there. Tests and all that are things to quibble about by people with more intellect than myself but to me, yesterday was the first time I have seen the President face the reality of what the potential would actually be when he said "we do not have this under control". For me, and this is for me only, it would have been much more reassuring to hear him say this weeks ago and indicate that he would listen to his scientific advisers moving forward. The fact that he indicated he had an innate (my characterization and perception)ability to understand all this at the level of the professionals at the CDC and NIH lost a ton of credibility for me. I know accomplished scientists at both of those institutions and there was nothing innate about about how they got there. Several of these people were always "the smartest person in the room" but to get to the point they are in was not innate but lots of hard work and study. That is my issue.

I think that's right Bart.

6ft, more to your question, yes, we'd have needed to go through social distancing and economic contraction.
Inescapable given the nature of the virus.

But that's not the whole story.

Had we admitted the coming reality and properly prioritized resources, testing first and foremost, the depths and lengths of the challenge could have been greatly reduced. Not eliminated, greatly reduced.

Likewise, had we prioritized ventilators, masks, gowns, training, hospital beds, etc, instead of being way, way, way behind in all of these, the impact would have been greatly reduced. Not eliminated, greatly reduced.

Are you implying that roughly ~5000 sicknesses have crushed our medical facilities and then in the same breath blaming the administration for that? To me, that says our medical infrastructure is quite poor and their planning had no contingencies for pandemic.....I believe Tony Fauci admitted that. Enough of the Orange Man Bad b/c it fits a narrative. If the USA is going to be bent over grabbing their ankles by ~ 5000 illnesses, then we are eff'd...full stop.

To further argue that "training" was not ready.....that also speaks to poor planning medical infrastructure problems.....that reaches far, far, far, beyond any one administration. Our military, first respondents do nothing but training for the "worst" case scenario. TO the end, I can see how this snowballs into gov't run healthcare...much like our military....which is always quite strong and prepared.

good lord, youth, your cluelessness or perhaps its stubbornness do concern me.

NO ONE is implying that 5,000 illnesses crush a darn thing...please read the estimations of what's building fast.

40-60% of population will eventually contract it, 15-17% will need serious care, hospitalization.
Multiply it out and report back to us that you can actually do math.

When this math became apparent, we needed to immediately ramp up all aspects. That was over two months ago. Arguably 3 months ago.
We're now, way, way behind.

Nero fiddled.

Which will cost many, many lives and massive economic disruption...much more than if we'd moved swiftly to respond to the scientists.

I'm all for prayer, but I'm praying that those vested with power in our system get off their butts and go full force to help this nation respond as effectively as possible and that my fellow citizens will stop denying this reality and start doing their best to help prevent speed of spread.

[jhu72]

Months of mocking science didn’t work so now it’s serious.

If the scientists don't know the answers, dont try and dazzle us all with sheepdip. All they have to do is admit they dont know what they dont know. I have actually heard some docs on TV admit just that. There is much they dont know. They are working to understand what they are dealing with.

They did not know some of the specifics for this particular virus, because it was the first time it had been seen. But they _had_ seen other epidemics/pandemics before, and did absolutely know the deep kind of situation we could end up at - and how it could be modified early in its impact by restrictions on movement and social distancing. And the knowledge about the particulars of the virus actually came with extreme speed due to the level of technology the world is capable of these days.

It is NOT sheepdip. It was willful ignorance of expertise quite consistent with prior behavior. They think that they can put out their own fake news and change the reality, but in fact here they cannot.

Why take all of these silly precautions...Just let the earth do what it is going to do. Once the earth gets something on its mind, you can’t change it.

[youthathletics]

So if Trump wasn't president.

We wouldn't be self quarantined in our homes?

Professional and college sports wouldn't have been canceled?

Schools restaurants and bars wouldn't be locked down?

Social distancing wouldn't be the prescription for 300 million plus Americans?

The stock market wouldn't have collapsed under all this uncertainty?

We wouldn't still be trying to bend the curve?

What would be different?

No, I think we would still be there. Tests and all that are things to quibble about by people with more intellect than myself but to me, yesterday was the first time I have seen the President face the reality of what the potential would actually be when he said "we do not have this under control". For me, and this is for me only, it would have been much more reassuring to hear him say this weeks ago and indicate that he would listen to his scientific advisers moving forward. The fact that he indicated he had an innate (my characterization and perception)ability to understand all this at the level of the professionals at the CDC and NIH lost a ton of credibility for me. I know accomplished scientists at both of those institutions and there was nothing innate about about how they got there. Several of these people were always "the smartest person in the room" but to get to the point they are in was not innate but lots of hard work and study. That is my issue.

I think that's right Bart.

6ft, more to your question, yes, we'd have needed to go through social distancing and economic contraction.
Inescapable given the nature of the virus.

But that's not the whole story.

Had we admitted the coming reality and properly prioritized resources, testing first and foremost, the depths and lengths of the challenge could have been greatly reduced. Not eliminated, greatly reduced.

Likewise, had we prioritized ventilators, masks, gowns, training, hospital beds, etc, instead of being way, way, way behind in all of these, the impact would have been greatly reduced. Not eliminated, greatly reduced.

Are you implying that roughly ~5000 sicknesses have crushed our medical facilities and then in the same breath blaming the administration for that? To me, that says our medical infrastructure is quite poor and their planning had no contingencies for pandemic.....I believe Tony Fauci admitted that. Enough of the Orange Man Bad b/c it fits a narrative. If the USA is going to be bent over grabbing their ankles by ~ 5000 illnesses, then we are eff'd...full stop.

To further argue that "training" was not ready.....that also speaks to poor planning medical infrastructure problems.....that reaches far, far, far, beyond any one administration. Our military, first respondents do nothing but training for the "worst" case scenario. TO the end, I can see how this snowballs into gov't run healthcare...much like our military....which is always quite strong and prepared.

good lord, youth, your cluelessness or perhaps its stubbornness do concern me.

NO ONE is implying that 5,000 illnesses crush a darn thing...please read the estimations of what's building fast.

40-60% of population will eventually contract it, 15-17% will need serious care, hospitalization.
Multiply it out and report back to us that you can actually do math.

When this math became apparent, we needed to immediately ramp up all aspects. That was over two months ago. Arguably 3 months ago.
We're now, way, way behind.

I read YOUR WORDS and replied to YOUR WORDS not speculation. You actually are certain that 150 Million people are getting this thing? Your words (40%-60%) and that roughly 35mm (10% less than your 15-17%) will need serious care?

Come on man.

[RedFromMI]

(stuff omitted)

I read YOUR WORDS and replied to YOUR WORDS not speculation. You actually are certain that 150 Million people are getting this thing? Your words (40%-60%) and that roughly 35mm (10% less than your 15-17%) will need serious care?

Come on man.

Within the range of possibilities. Because we have not tested anywhere near the level we should be the ranges of what is possible skews all over the place.

Numbers ten times lower than that will still overwhelm the system. But by acting now (instead of weeks ago like we should have) can still lower the peak and lessen the amount we overtax our capacity. That will save lives, but the alarm has been ringing (instead of the clock ticking) for some time now.

[Trinity]

"Just 37% of Americans now say they had a good amount or a great deal of trust in what they're hearing from the president, while 60% say they had not very much or no trust at all in what he's saying."

NPR/ Marist poll

[CU88]

"Just 37% of Americans now say they had a good amount or a great deal of trust in what they're hearing from the president, while 60% say they had not very much or no trust at all in what he's saying."

NPR/ Marist poll

It should be higher...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gJgmkW ... 1nxCUt%3A6

[Trinity]

“The contrast between @NYGovCuomo ‘a #coronavirus press conference and @realDonaldTrump’s press conferences could not be more striking. You almost forget what competence, leadership and honesty feel like until you’re reminded.“

Charles Blow

Larry Hogan in Maryland has also been excellent.

[6ftstick]

"Just 37% of Americans now say they had a good amount or a great deal of trust in what they're hearing from the president, while 60% say they had not very much or no trust at all in what he's saying."

NPR/ Marist poll

It should be higher...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gJgmkW ... 1nxCUt%3A6

This kind of sh*t slays me.

The entire MSM spends 95% of its reporting criticizing slamming lying and passing BS about Trump and then are surprised that Americans have negative reactions.

You've been lying about the guy for 4 FN YEARS.

[seacoaster]

"Just 37% of Americans now say they had a good amount or a great deal of trust in what they're hearing from the president, while 60% say they had not very much or no trust at all in what he's saying."

NPR/ Marist poll

Weird. Wonder why?

https://lincolnproject.us/news/unfit/

[RedFromMI]

Canary In Coal Mine?

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/al ... k-hospital

Original Atlanta Journal Constitution article:
https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regiona ... u5jQ6JoBK/

Phoebe Putney Health System’s flagship hospital in Albany, a city anchoring southwest Georgia, has exploded with possible COVID-19 patients in the last five days. The hospital now houses 65 patients who’ve either been diagnosed with the disease or are waiting for tests to confirm the diagnosis. That’s just the inpatients; 115 more with less severe symptoms are at home, waiting for test results. The hospital released the numbers along with a plea to speed up testing.

The hospital system is well funded and connected for a rural one. But, says CEO Scott Steiner, they’ve run through five months’ worth of supplies in six days. They’re good for another five more days, he thinks.

“We might have thought we were overprepared,” Steiner said, looking back at the system’s years of disaster planning. “But you just can’t believe what we went through from a supply standpoint.”

[6ftstick]

"Just 37% of Americans now say they had a good amount or a great deal of trust in what they're hearing from the president, while 60% say they had not very much or no trust at all in what he's saying."

NPR/ Marist poll

Weird. Wonder why?

https://lincolnproject.us/news/unfit/

Was FDR LYING when he said "All we have to fear is fear itself."

Was he purposely misleading the American people."

After all the depression lasted 6 years more after his speech.

[jhu72]

"Just 37% of Americans now say they had a good amount or a great deal of trust in what they're hearing from the president, while 60% say they had not very much or no trust at all in what he's saying."

NPR/ Marist poll

Just got a call from my Trumpnista younger brother. He and his wife are full time Faux News viewers. He is concerned - "damn politicians, none of them tell the truth, can't trust any of them". He wanted my take on all this. We haven't talked politics since 2016.