All things CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

Has anyone seen the video of US citizens returning from EU over the weekend?? Not even a little well thought out. Massive lines in airports trying to get through customs. People in line for up to 7 hours. Crowded, no room to move.

Not smart. Totally wasted whatever small benefit the administration thought it would gain by keeping the Euros out.

[CU88]

Trump told governors this morning they are on their own:
“Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try getting it yourselves,” Mr. Trump told the governors during the conference call, a recording of which was shared with The New York Times.

Leadership?

[old salt]

For MD residents, Gov Hogan's latest announcement:
https://www.facebook.com/GovLarryHogan/ ... 591017440/

All bars/restaurants to close at 5pm today, only take out & drive thru allowed thereafter.
Groc stores & other essentials to remain open.
No gatheings > 50 souls.
Program to distribute meals to school lunch program kids.
Resourceful expansion of hospital capacity.
Smart targeted activation of National Guard & Medical Reserve personell.

HOGAN for President in 2020 (no need to wait until 2024)

[jhu72]

For MD residents, Gov Hogan's latest announcement:
https://www.facebook.com/GovLarryHogan/ ... 591017440/

All bars/restaurants to close at 5pm today, only take out & drive thru allowed thereafter.
Groc stores & other essentials to remain open.
No gatheings > 50 souls.
Program to distribute meals to school lunch program kids.
Resourceful expansion of hospital capacity.
Smart targeted activation of National Guard & Medical Reserve personell.

HOGAN for President in 2020 (no need to wait until 2024)

He is being proactive in a state where the problem is not yet massive. It is going to be really interesting watching how the various states handle all this, and the results.

[ggait]

I keep hearing Dr Tony Fauci saying that he will be thrilled if after the fact government gets heat for OVERreacting if things work out for the best long-term

At this point, the sooner we "over-react", the sooner things will return to normal. Especially the financial markets, which mostly fear that this thing will be dragged out by under-reactions. Take the Q2 hit, and get improvements in Q3 and Q4. The underlying fundamentals (unlike 2008) are generally fine.

So just go ahead and bring the bazooka and flame-thrower to the gun fight.

[Kismet]

For MD residents, Gov Hogan's latest announcement:
https://www.facebook.com/GovLarryHogan/ ... 591017440/

All bars/restaurants to close at 5pm today, only take out & drive thru allowed thereafter.
Groc stores & other essentials to remain open.
No gatheings > 50 souls.
Program to distribute meals to school lunch program kids.
Resourceful expansion of hospital capacity.
Smart targeted activation of National Guard & Medical Reserve personell.

HOGAN for President in 2020 (no need to wait until 2024)

He has a LOT of company in this regard. CT, NJ and NY announced same today. Think PA just came aboard as well. Think other states will be joining the efforts as well. At this point, per Tony Fauci....better to overdo it it know for benefit later.

[CU88]

For MD residents, Gov Hogan's latest announcement:
https://www.facebook.com/GovLarryHogan/ ... 591017440/

All bars/restaurants to close at 5pm today, only take out & drive thru allowed thereafter.
Groc stores & other essentials to remain open.
No gatheings > 50 souls.
Program to distribute meals to school lunch program kids.
Resourceful expansion of hospital capacity.
Smart targeted activation of National Guard & Medical Reserve personell.

HOGAN for President in 2020 (no need to wait until 2024)

He has a LOT of company in this regard. CT, NJ and NY announced same today. Think PA just came aboard as well. Think other states will be joining the efforts as well. At this point, per Tony Fauci....better to overdo it it know for benefit later.

I saw this today:

All 50 states are now Puerto Rico.

[jhu72]

For MD residents, Gov Hogan's latest announcement:
https://www.facebook.com/GovLarryHogan/ ... 591017440/

All bars/restaurants to close at 5pm today, only take out & drive thru allowed thereafter.
Groc stores & other essentials to remain open.
No gatheings > 50 souls.
Program to distribute meals to school lunch program kids.
Resourceful expansion of hospital capacity.
Smart targeted activation of National Guard & Medical Reserve personell.

HOGAN for President in 2020 (no need to wait until 2024)

He has a LOT of company in this regard. CT, NJ and NY announced same today. Think PA just came aboard as well. Think other states will be joining the efforts as well. At this point, per Tony Fauci....better to overdo it it know for benefit later.

Actually I really think that is the game plan, without telling the citizenry. I can't get to the disease growth numbers that threatens a hospital meltdown nation wide, any time soon -- certainly not 1 week. Given the lousy testing situation, I think they are taking a real worst worst case perspective assuming the current degree of spread (Fauci and friends) and we are not going to get anywhere near the hospital meltdown as quickly as some suggest. Ventilators, respirators are a different story if you assume all patients need them, which they don't. Could be wrong, but I can't make the numbers work out.

If we had better testing, some of what is going on, might not be necessary at this time.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Trump trying to bounce the market. Will be having 3:00 press conferences every day like he said over the weekend.

[jhu72]

Wow, Trump is talking realistically for the first time ever on this issue!

[jhu72]

Wow, Trump is talking realistically for the first time ever on this issue!

He needs to lose the "we have done a really good job by keeping people out" shtick. He loses people every time he says it.

This is easily his best presser. He is behaving in a largely bi-partisan fashion. Like a real human being concerned about trying to solve a problem. His body has clearly been taken over by an alien.

Boy, even Debbie demonstrating that she gets it.

Trump riffing again, spinning a "its never been done" lie. He gets comfortable and he lies. He can't help himself.

Stock market been going down since the presser started. Currently within 200 pts of the day OD took office.

[3rdPersonPlural]

Help the handicapped, here?

I've read all I can find on this covid19 mess, and all I can conclude is that the symptoms are similar to a bad cold or pneumonia which is not lethal to anyone except the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.

Not too dissimilar to the H1N1 virus we slogged through 10 years ago. Nothing got closed, so most of us don't remember that as well as we're gonna remember this COVID19 catastrophe

However, we are now shutting boarding schools and restaurants and just heard from a friend in Nevada who is proud of herself that she organized a 'social distancing line' outside her Smiths Grocery so the line waiting to be one of the 25 allowed in wouldn't get too close to each other.

Are we as a nation actually becoming sensitive to the peculiar needs of the old and infirm? If so, I'm delighted! Obviously this is gonna result in suppressed economic activity, and so I conclude that the White House is convinced.

What am I missing?

What you’re missing is that this novel coronavirus has a much higher mortality rate than H1N1. If the same number of Americans become infected with the novel coronavirus as they did with H1N1 (over 60 million Americans), then we could potentially see between 120,000 to 600,000 Americans dead from the pandemic.

Fortunately, that worst case scenario won’t happen due to the extraordinary measures being taken.

Also, it’s important to prevent infection of young, healthy individuals, as they can become vectors for infecting more vulnerable segments of the population.

DocBarrister

So what you're saying is that, as I presumed, the sick and the elderly will get their call to the end game because we don't have specific pharmaceutical tools to save them. But we can reduce this count by having their loved ones and service personnel 'self-quarantined' until the threat has evaporated.

Here's my next question:

I'm guessing it'll be 12 to 18 months before we discover a vaccine or cure for this. Or only hope is to squeeze this virus by denying it a chance to find new hosts. Right?

So we all gotta stay 6 feet away from anyone we don't live with for better than a year?

[Matnum PI]

I'm guessing it'll be 12 to 18 months before we discover a vaccine...

my understanding is that it'll be much shorter than this.

[Trinity]

From an ER doc in New York City on shift today to Chris Hayes, msnbc

“Today. Is. F’ing. Nuts. It kinda blew up here. And sending home lots of people undoubtedly positive because we don’t test on discharged patients. This has been spreading a long time.”

[DocBarrister]

Help the handicapped, here?

I've read all I can find on this covid19 mess, and all I can conclude is that the symptoms are similar to a bad cold or pneumonia which is not lethal to anyone except the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.

Not too dissimilar to the H1N1 virus we slogged through 10 years ago. Nothing got closed, so most of us don't remember that as well as we're gonna remember this COVID19 catastrophe

However, we are now shutting boarding schools and restaurants and just heard from a friend in Nevada who is proud of herself that she organized a 'social distancing line' outside her Smiths Grocery so the line waiting to be one of the 25 allowed in wouldn't get too close to each other.

Are we as a nation actually becoming sensitive to the peculiar needs of the old and infirm? If so, I'm delighted! Obviously this is gonna result in suppressed economic activity, and so I conclude that the White House is convinced.

What am I missing?

What you’re missing is that this novel coronavirus has a much higher mortality rate than H1N1. If the same number of Americans become infected with the novel coronavirus as they did with H1N1 (over 60 million Americans), then we could potentially see between 120,000 to 600,000 Americans dead from the pandemic.

Fortunately, that worst case scenario won’t happen due to the extraordinary measures being taken.

Also, it’s important to prevent infection of young, healthy individuals, as they can become vectors for infecting more vulnerable segments of the population.

DocBarrister

So what you're saying is that, as I presumed, the sick and the elderly will get their call to the end game because we don't have specific pharmaceutical tools to save them. But we can reduce this count by having their loved ones and service personnel 'self-quarantined' until the threat has evaporated.

Here's my next question:

I'm guessing it'll be 12 to 18 months before we discover a vaccine or cure for this. Or only hope is to squeeze this virus by denying it a chance to find new hosts. Right?

So we all gotta stay 6 feet away from anyone we don't live with for better than a year?

We might as well be in the Middle Ages when it comes to anti-viral therapy. A safe and effective vaccine is probably at least a year away.

As more people get infected and recover, most will have developed some immunity to the virus (obviously, if they haven’t succumbed to the virus). So, eventually, the social distancing measures will become less necessary.

However, these viruses have a tendency to mutate, so ....

DocBarrister

[Matnum PI]

Question: "On a scale of 1-10, how would you rate your response to this crisis?"
Trump: "I'd rate it a 10."

[3rdPersonPlural]

Help the handicapped, here?

I've read all I can find on this covid19 mess, and all I can conclude is that the symptoms are similar to a bad cold or pneumonia which is not lethal to anyone except the elderly and those with compromised immune systems.

Not too dissimilar to the H1N1 virus we slogged through 10 years ago. Nothing got closed, so most of us don't remember that as well as we're gonna remember this COVID19 catastrophe

However, we are now shutting boarding schools and restaurants and just heard from a friend in Nevada who is proud of herself that she organized a 'social distancing line' outside her Smiths Grocery so the line waiting to be one of the 25 allowed in wouldn't get too close to each other.

Are we as a nation actually becoming sensitive to the peculiar needs of the old and infirm? If so, I'm delighted! Obviously this is gonna result in suppressed economic activity, and so I conclude that the White House is convinced.

What am I missing?

What you’re missing is that this novel coronavirus has a much higher mortality rate than H1N1. If the same number of Americans become infected with the novel coronavirus as they did with H1N1 (over 60 million Americans), then we could potentially see between 120,000 to 600,000 Americans dead from the pandemic.

Fortunately, that worst case scenario won’t happen due to the extraordinary measures being taken.

Also, it’s important to prevent infection of young, healthy individuals, as they can become vectors for infecting more vulnerable segments of the population.

DocBarrister

So what you're saying is that, as I presumed, the sick and the elderly will get their call to the end game because we don't have specific pharmaceutical tools to save them. But we can reduce this count by having their loved ones and service personnel 'self-quarantined' until the threat has evaporated.

Here's my next question:

I'm guessing it'll be 12 to 18 months before we discover a vaccine or cure for this. Or only hope is to squeeze this virus by denying it a chance to find new hosts. Right?

So we all gotta stay 6 feet away from anyone we don't live with for better than a year?

We might as well be in the Middle Ages when it comes to anti-viral therapy. A safe and effective vaccine is probably at least a year away.

As more people get infected and recover, most will have developed some immunity to the virus (obviously, if they haven’t succumbed to the virus). So, eventually, the social distancing measures will become less necessary.

However, these viruses have a tendency to mutate, so ....

DocBarrister

Thanks Doc. I really appreciate an informed POV, here.

[jhu72]

I'm guessing it'll be 12 to 18 months before we discover a vaccine...

my understanding is that it'll be much shorter than this.

Most likely this will last for a month or a little more. That is what China did. The curve will peak and flatten. By that time we should be in a much better position with testing capability. Then they come to a what do we do now moment. We will not be close to beating this. That won't happen until herd immunity takes over. If they let up on the "lock down", we will see a second wave begin to build, but will presumably be in a better position to track it with decent testing. I would bet we will go through a number of short (4 - 8 week) lock downs followed by loosening and infection waves until herd immunity improves or a vaccine is developed. Given how highly transmittable this is, the youngsters are likely to build immunity pretty quickly. But that is just a guess! China should be in a pretty good position to start answering questions about population immunity among those who have had the disease.

[Matnum PI]

That's one good thing. We're not dealing with this in a vacuum. We can learn from other countries.

[jhu72]

Yup.