All things CoronaVirus

[old salt]

The first 3 cases in MD (Montgomery Co), all > 60, have cleared quarantine & are healthy.

Good news.

Meanwhile, GOP Gov of Ohio estimates that Ohio may already have 100,000 people infected in his state.
Need tests.

We just need to get the testing under control. Solve that, and this whole thing gets a whole lot easier.

As testing increases, it will help chart the community spread, id hot spots, & guide mitigation & targeted containment measures.

Mass testing of everyone with the first non life threatening symptoms, is still premature & a waste of medical provider capacity..
We're now in the mitigation phase. It was inevitable.
Unnecessary testing consumes health care provider manpower, supplies & capacity.
Can't (yet) afford testing to determine if it's ok to visit granny.

Unless your fever does not subside, you have difficulty breathing (beyond anxiety induced), or other symptoms don't subside,
stay home & ride it out. Call ahead for instructions before presenting yourself for treatment.

Positive test results from patients being treated for severe &/or persisting symptoms will provide initial data for mapping the spread until heath care provider capacity allows for mass testing. Right now, health care provider manpower needs to be marshalled for the treatment of the severely ill & not wasted on subjects not in distress, who should continue to self-isolate & maintain social distancing, regardless.

[a fan]

Unless your fever does not subside, you have difficulty breathing (beyond anxiety induced), or other symptoms don't subside,
stay home & ride it out. Call ahead for instructions before presenting yourself for treatment.

This isn't the message Trump is sending. In fact, he's not sending any message whatsoever when it comes to testing procedures....the when's and why's of testing.

And they haven't ordered that everyone stay home by Federal order. Sense a problem?

[youthathletics]

Based on this website, as of 1438....current fatality rate in:
US: 1.9%
France: 2.1%
Germany: 1.6%
Spain: 3.7%
South Korea: .91%

[youthathletics]

Unless your fever does not subside, you have difficulty breathing (beyond anxiety induced), or other symptoms don't subside,
stay home & ride it out. Call ahead for instructions before presenting yourself for treatment.

This isn't the message Trump is sending. In fact, he's not sending any message whatsoever when it comes to testing procedures....the when's and why's of testing.

And they haven't ordered that everyone stay home by Federal order. Sense a problem?

You must have missed that piece of the presser on Friday....that is what they prescribed. OR maybe I have watched so much news, I heard it elsewhere. [shrugging shoulders]

[a fan]

Yep. Missed it.

[Bart]

The first 3 cases in MD (Montgomery Co), all > 60, have cleared quarantine & are healthy.

Good news.

Meanwhile, GOP Gov of Ohio estimates that Ohio may already have 100,000 people infected in his state.
Need tests.

We just need to get the testing under control. Solve that, and this whole thing gets a whole lot easier.

Don't know about easier but certainly clearer. It certainly would give the professionals a better understanding of where important medical services need to be adjusted.

[old salt]

MDLF76:
Thanks for your questions.

No, the US is definitely on path to be the next global hotspot (unless another European country didn't ramp up testing...Italy's mistake).

Yes, test kits have been the limiting factor.

And there's no throughput issue with the WHO kits, others are doing them at a very high rate.
Just need to decide that it's a priority.

Which we didn't until very recently. (It's still not clear that Trump or even Pence gets it).
We're now way, way behind the curve.

It's going to require a massive surge in testing to get a handle on this and it's pretty darn clear that what we were told by Trump just 3 days ago everyone having availability next week is total BS.

You are a master of partisan political hindsight & second guessing.
Well meaning misjudgments by high ranking experts at CDC & FDA delayed a ramp up in testing capacity.
Do you seriously think that Trump or Pence intervened at those lower levels of govt ?
Or is the delay due to systemic bureaucratic obstacles at FDA & CDC, which were reasonable safeguards in previous crises, & a failed attempt to design a better test by CDC ?

[youthathletics]

Yep. Missed it.

THey have also been pushing the CDC WEBSITE: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... -sick.html

[a fan]

Well, right now they're operating in the dark. So i'd say access to all the testing they want would make things exponentially easier.

Fauci said prepare for 8 weeks or more of quarantine. He gets it now.

Most small biz in America will fail if they don't do something big. And people will panic.

Trump MUST start dropping money into people's accounts. Not later. Now.

And they have to figure out mortgage relief during quarantine.

[a fan]

Yep. Missed it.

THey have also been pushing the CDC WEBSITE: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... -sick.html

Thanks for link! Wife just gave me the same, and rolled her eyes. I've been at the shop, preparing contingency plans in a very empty distillery.

[Typical Lax Dad]

MDLF76:
Thanks for your questions.

No, the US is definitely on path to be the next global hotspot (unless another European country didn't ramp up testing...Italy's mistake).

Yes, test kits have been the limiting factor.

And there's no throughput issue with the WHO kits, others are doing them at a very high rate.
Just need to decide that it's a priority.

Which we didn't until very recently. (It's still not clear that Trump or even Pence gets it).
We're now way, way behind the curve.

It's going to require a massive surge in testing to get a handle on this and it's pretty darn clear that what we were told by Trump just 3 days ago everyone having availability next week is total BS.

You are a master of partisan political hindsight & second guessing.
Well meaning misjudgments by high ranking experts at CDC & FDA delayed a ramp up in testing capacity.
Do you seriously think that Trump or Pence intervened at those lower levels of govt ?
Or is the delay due to systemic bureaucratic obstacles at FDA & CDC, which were reasonable safeguards in previous crises, & a failed attempt to design a better test by CDC ?

Post a link to CDC mentions that they slowed down testing to manage the crisis.

[old salt]

Yep. Missed it.

There's an abundance of useful info avail. I recommend everyone design an emergency plan for your family.
I found everything I needed on the websites of my state & county health depts, my local hospital, & my nearest military treatment facility.
They all have immediate COVID19 popup banners.
All convey the same basic instructions on how & when to present for treatment,
which I attempted to summarize in my post.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Based on this website, as of 1438....current fatality rate in:
US: 1.9%
France: 2.1%
Germany: 1.6%
Spain: 3.7%
South Korea: .91%

Hoping we get down to 1%. That wouldn’t be a bad outcome.

[old salt]

MDLF76:
Thanks for your questions.

No, the US is definitely on path to be the next global hotspot (unless another European country didn't ramp up testing...Italy's mistake).

Yes, test kits have been the limiting factor.

And there's no throughput issue with the WHO kits, others are doing them at a very high rate.
Just need to decide that it's a priority.

Which we didn't until very recently. (It's still not clear that Trump or even Pence gets it).
We're now way, way behind the curve.

It's going to require a massive surge in testing to get a handle on this and it's pretty darn clear that what we were told by Trump just 3 days ago everyone having availability next week is total BS.

You are a master of partisan political hindsight & second guessing.
Well meaning misjudgments by high ranking experts at CDC & FDA delayed a ramp up in testing capacity.
Do you seriously think that Trump or Pence intervened at those lower levels of govt ?
Or is the delay due to systemic bureaucratic obstacles at FDA & CDC, which were reasonable safeguards in previous crises, & a failed attempt to design a better test by CDC ?

Post a link to CDC mentions that they slowed down testing to manage the crisis.

As usual, that's not what I said. Willful distortion.
Triage of medical capacity is in effect.
Personnel & supply resources are being focused where most urgently needed, moving forward.

[Bart]

Based on this website, as of 1438....current fatality rate in:
US: 1.9%
France: 2.1%
Germany: 1.6%
Spain: 3.7%
South Korea: .91%

These certainly are as accurate numbers as we can have regarding the number of confirmed cases in the US. It is still 20x higher than the flue. I would imagine when testing increases and the numbers go up the rate will definitely go down. If you take the rate of South Korea, 0.91% as a good estimate due to their high testing rate it would put the current number of positive cases at about 6,800. You hope the fatality rate continues to go down but as that happens the total number of infected increases.

[Bart]

Based on this website, as of 1438....current fatality rate in:
US: 1.9%
France: 2.1%
Germany: 1.6%
Spain: 3.7%
South Korea: .91%

Hoping we get down to 1%. That wouldn’t be a bad outcome.

bad outcome? Depends on the denominator.

[Typical Lax Dad]

MDLF76:
Thanks for your questions.

No, the US is definitely on path to be the next global hotspot (unless another European country didn't ramp up testing...Italy's mistake).

Yes, test kits have been the limiting factor.

And there's no throughput issue with the WHO kits, others are doing them at a very high rate.
Just need to decide that it's a priority.

Which we didn't until very recently. (It's still not clear that Trump or even Pence gets it).
We're now way, way behind the curve.

It's going to require a massive surge in testing to get a handle on this and it's pretty darn clear that what we were told by Trump just 3 days ago everyone having availability next week is total BS.

You are a master of partisan political hindsight & second guessing.
Well meaning misjudgments by high ranking experts at CDC & FDA delayed a ramp up in testing capacity.
Do you seriously think that Trump or Pence intervened at those lower levels of govt ?
Or is the delay due to systemic bureaucratic obstacles at FDA & CDC, which were reasonable safeguards in previous crises, & a failed attempt to design a better test by CDC ?

Post a link to CDC mentions that they slowed down testing to manage the crisis.

As usual, that's not what I said. Willful distortion.
Triage of medical capacity is in effect.
Personnel & supply resources are being focused where most urgently needed, moving forward.

We are behind. That’s the point. We didn’t have to be. When you reduce the emphasis on preparedness and then “refuse help” (unless you are China) this is what you get. You make it seem as though the way we are postured today was our posture 3 weeks ago. After a 2 month head start no less.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Based on this website, as of 1438....current fatality rate in:
US: 1.9%
France: 2.1%
Germany: 1.6%
Spain: 3.7%
South Korea: .91%

Hoping we get down to 1%. That wouldn’t be a bad outcome.

bad outcome? Depends on the denominator.

I would hope we could do better. I was basing it on the known range.

[a fan]

Yep. Missed it.

There's an abundance of useful info avail. I recommend everyone design an emergency plan for your family.

Already done. I just didn't see the part about testing.

Doesn't matter in CO anyway. They just closed testing---overwhelmed, and can only test a few hundred per day.

It's time to shut the country down. The order needs to be given.

[Matnum PI]

in italy today, 368 people died as a direct result of corona virus.