DocBarrister wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:34 am
6ftstick wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:40 am
Where were all you black plague folks in 2009
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... demic.html
I can't remember any of this over the top media coverage, Universities closing, pro sports suspending play and high decibel complaining.
Oh that's right Obama was President. Wasn't he a democrat?
You do understand that based on current data, if 60 million people were infected with the novel coronavirus, that could lead up to hundreds of thousands, maybe even up to a million deaths?
Understand now why this isn’t like the flu or even H1N1?
There’s a rational reason why nations like China and Italy are imposing some of the most draconian measures in modern history to prevent further spreading of this disease ... self-preservation.
DocBarrister
Right. This is exactly what is driving the concern. The notion that hospitals could be overrun completely with this disease, breaking those systems, so that they could not function for even diseases that we can treat / cure. At present their are 1 million (about) beds in US hospitals. A little over 800,000 of them are occupied with non-coronavirus cases - normally. We are fortunate that our occupancy rates are lower than many countries (Italy in the best of times is 90% occupied IIRC) China had to build special hospitals quickly because of the overrun. We don't want to get to the point where hospitals can not function. This is where the Italians are currently.
You don't have to worry about this with the annual flu. The disease is not so highly transmissible or deadly that you overrun your hospital capacity. THIS IS DIFFERENT! COVID-19 is different.
I don't buy the predictions of some that in two weeks we will reach this point. That is clear hyperbole. What is true is that it would not take many more weeks of unchecked infection growth before you would start to stress the hospitals and by that time you will have built up a backlog of early infections that when they bloom, it is too late, you have overrun your hospitals.
Act now to isolate, distance society, slow the infection growth curve down.
People coming from Europe is not what is growing the infection numbers. It doesn't hurt (the ban), but at this point it is not going to help. We have far more than enough virus on our shores already, that if you banned all international travel, it makes little difference.
So if we are successful in flattening the curve, we will not eradicate the disease. When we loosen up on the isolations, the disease will bounce back among those not previously infected. If reinfection is possible (the jury is still out on this - to the best of my knowledge) then those who have had the disease may get it again. You don't have a permanent solution until everyone has been infected and recovered, or a vaccine developed and administered. This is why experts are saying this is going to be with us for a year or more.
By isolating now we have the ability to increase hospital and treatment facility capacity so as to make it less likely as time goes on to break the system.
