All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

I was not referencing the JHU site at all, so I had not put that much thought into the JHU site. But thank you for the information.

When I said "calmer" - I was referring to the rumors and hype and general lack of solid information that is floating all over the media and internet.

No problem. The Harvard site I think is pretty typical of what you see from all healthcare providers. Get the "treatment" and "disease profile" information out without hyperbole.

[HooDat]

I hope I am right in this - my gut tells me that the economic impact of Corona is going to be bigger than the health impact. Even typing that feels cold and heartless, because people are going to die. But, as the Harvard site notes, more people are probably going to die of the "regular" flu than Corona. Maybe this will get folks to pay more attention to those impacted every year by the flu.

The economic impact is real and has already started. We have already lost one month of 20% of the world's economy by having China shut down. More time will be lost. That lost time and productivity is not coming back. The biggest impact will be on the service sector - tv sales can double in May to make up for not having them available in March. Factory workers can potentially work OT and make up some lost ground. But people can't eat twice as many dinners.

[a fan]

The odds that we are going to finish March's lacrosse games are tiny.

The odds that we're going to get a Final Four this year are next to zero.


Trump and Congress should be in emergency session today. Right now. Figuring out a plan.

[OCanada]

There is quite a lot of accurate data floating around the web these days. More and more every day from Italy, China , South Korea, Germany and the USA. There is also substantial effort being made to downplay the data. So it can be confusing out there. The marketplace is making g it’s decisions on what is truth worthy.

One potentially severe threat to the public are those people, like antivaxxers, who are active threats to the public welfare because they believe it represents no real threat and beck e Typhoid Marys.

[Trinity]

Number of Americans tested for coronavirus so far: 4,987
Yahoo News
Epic fail.

[ggait]

I hope I am right in this - my gut tells me that the economic impact of Corona is going to be bigger than the health impact. Even typing that feels cold and heartless, because people are going to die.

Not heartless, just realistic.

The most at risk people are 80 year olds with very serious underlying pre-existing conditions. So that population already has a fairly bleak mortality profile and a low quality of life in many cases. Speaking just for myself, if I'm 80 with cancer, I'm not worried about being taken out by coronavirus or even the regular flu. I might actually welcome it.

Way more terrifying (again speaking just for myself) would be a mid-40s family breadwinner making $50k a year to be laid off due to the severe economic and social disruption this bug is going to cause. A family living paycheck-to-paycheck might never recover from that. The number of those type situations is going to be far more numerous than the number of serious health issues.

[MDlaxfan76]

I hope I am right in this - my gut tells me that the economic impact of Corona is going to be bigger than the health impact. Even typing that feels cold and heartless, because people are going to die.

Not heartless, just realistic.

The most at risk people are 80 year olds with very serious underlying pre-existing conditions. So that population already has a fairly bleak mortality profile and a low quality of life in many cases. Speaking just for myself, if I'm 80 with cancer, I'm not worried about being taken out by coronavirus or even the regular flu. I might actually welcome it.

Way more terrifying (again speaking just for myself) would be a mid-40s family breadwinner making $50k a year to be laid off due to the severe economic and social disruption this bug is going to cause. A family living paycheck-to-paycheck might never recover from that. The number of those type situations is going to be far more numerous than the number of serious health issues.

My Dartmouth colleague, Gail Boudreaux, CEO of Anthem, is sitting next to Pence right now on TV. Just made a nice statement...no fawning over POTUS, just to the point. Gail was was a heck of a basketball player for the Big Green.

[a fan]

Way more terrifying (again speaking just for myself) would be a mid-40s family breadwinner making $50k a year to be laid off due to the severe economic and social disruption this bug is going to cause. A family living paycheck-to-paycheck might never recover from that. The number of those type situations is going to be far more numerous than the number of serious health issues.

Agree 1,000%. I can't wrap my head around what's coming----so many Americans are paycheck to paycheck. What happens when there's no work for a couple of months----or more---- because of this thing?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Way more terrifying (again speaking just for myself) would be a mid-40s family breadwinner making $50k a year to be laid off due to the severe economic and social disruption this bug is going to cause. A family living paycheck-to-paycheck might never recover from that. The number of those type situations is going to be far more numerous than the number of serious health issues.

Agree 1,000%. I can't wrap my head around what's coming----so many Americans are paycheck to paycheck. What happens when there's no work for a couple of months----or more---- because of this thing?

This is what happens when anti science people are in charge. We had a 2-3 month head start and we are behind. Vintage Trump.

https://www.biomedcentral.com/collections/CoV

[a fan]

Not just anti-science, TLD, anti-government. And we've got a few posters here who think that Trump's dismantling of properly functioning government infrastructure is awesome. The stories that are written when this passes will not be glowing.

The one ENORMOUS resource we have right now are banks are currently in good shape, and interest rates are next to zero. Massive fiscal stimulus and aggressive lending to the small and medium sized businesses that are going to get wiped out if we're in quarantine for a few months would be a huge help, economically.

Can't speak to the medical side. That stuff is over my head. Suffice it to say that having millions of workers---and specifically, food handlers (restaurants, etc.)----without access to a doctors is inherently stupid for a 1st world nation.

[jhu72]

Stepping back from this mess for a minute, you have to wonder if healthcare professionals aren't looking at this the wrong way. Forget for a moment predictions of hospital / resource over crowding, etc.. Ask the question - what is the long term health effect of having had this particular strain of coronavirus if you survive? To date, there is no evidence it is any more than the flu or the common cold. Admittedly short period of experience with the disease, but still no evidence of anything serious. What is the reinfection rate? Is it even possible? There has been one report out of China indicating it is possible, but this is not confirmed.

In earlier times (when I was very young) with more serious diseases (in long term effects as best we can tell) the drill was to build herd immunity. Simply put, intentionally infect those who were not immune so as to mitigate future outbreaks. Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox, etc. When one child came down with the infection, mom would expose the rest of the kids (above a certain age). This is no longer necessary or done because of vaccines.

Currently the professional thinking is socially distancing the herd. The effect of this is you build no herd immunity and society is susceptible to this strain reoccurring and putting society through this again. The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives. Of course there are a bunch of unknows with this plan, risks. But there are known risks, health and economic with the kinds of plans the healthcare professionals are currently considering. Going down the path of the professionals we become absolutely dependent on the development of a vaccine. Mom's solution not so much.

Just a thought.

[kramerica.inc]

Amd still no clue if the virus evolves into different strains like the flu

[Bart]

Stepping back from this mess for a minute, you have to wonder if healthcare professionals aren't looking at this the wrong way. Forget for a moment predictions of hospital / resource over crowding, etc.. Ask the question - what is the long term health effect of having had this particular strain of coronavirus if you survive? To date, there is no evidence it is any more than the flu or the common cold. Admittedly short period of experience with the disease, but still no evidence of anything serious. What is the reinfection rate? Is it even possible? There has been one report out of China indicating it is possible, but this is not confirmed.

In earlier times (when I was very young) with more serious diseases (in long term effects as best we can tell) the drill was to build herd immunity. Simply put, intentionally infect those who were not immune so as to mitigate future outbreaks. Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox, etc. When one child came down with the infection, mom would expose the rest of the kids (above a certain age). This is no longer necessary or done because of vaccines.

Currently the professional thinking is socially distancing the herd. The effect of this is you build no herd immunity and society is susceptible to this strain reoccurring and putting society through this again. The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives. Of course there are a bunch of unknows with this plan, risks. But there are known risks, health and economic with the kinds of plans the healthcare professionals are currently considering. Going down the path of the professionals we become absolutely dependent on the development of a vaccine. Mom's solution not so much.

Just a thought.

Interesting take but what about viral modification and mutation? Herd immunity for this particular CoronaVirus but if it changes just slightly? There is a reason we do not have a vaccine for the common cold. I think before I would subscribe to your train of thought I would like to see how the virus reacts and what is the probability it mutates. And yes, there is also the possibility a vaccine is ineffective due to the same situation.

[old salt]

Stepping back from this mess for a minute, you have to wonder if healthcare professionals aren't looking at this the wrong way. Forget for a moment predictions of hospital / resource over crowding, etc.. Ask the question - what is the long term health effect of having had this particular strain of coronavirus if you survive? To date, there is no evidence it is any more than the flu or the common cold. Admittedly short period of experience with the disease, but still no evidence of anything serious. What is the reinfection rate? Is it even possible? There has been one report out of China indicating it is possible, but this is not confirmed.

In earlier times (when I was very young) with more serious diseases (in long term effects as best we can tell) the drill was to build herd immunity. Simply put, intentionally infect those who were not immune so as to mitigate future outbreaks. Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox, etc. When one child came down with the infection, mom would expose the rest of the kids (above a certain age). This is no longer necessary or done because of vaccines.

Currently the professional thinking is socially distancing the herd. The effect of this is you build no herd immunity and society is susceptible to this strain reoccurring and putting society through this again. The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives. Of course there are a bunch of unknows with this plan, risks. But there are known risks, health and economic with the kinds of plans the healthcare professionals are currently considering. Going down the path of the professionals we become absolutely dependent on the development of a vaccine. Mom's solution not so much.

Just a thought.

Thanks for posting that thought.
I've had that same thought for a couple days, but figured it would be politicized if I posted it.

"cocoon" the vulnerable, & let the <60 healthy herd roam free.

[kramerica.inc]

The question is- high school and rec lacrosse leagues.

What's the plan?

Is there a plan?

Game on?

[jhu72]

Stepping back from this mess for a minute, you have to wonder if healthcare professionals aren't looking at this the wrong way. Forget for a moment predictions of hospital / resource over crowding, etc.. Ask the question - what is the long term health effect of having had this particular strain of coronavirus if you survive? To date, there is no evidence it is any more than the flu or the common cold. Admittedly short period of experience with the disease, but still no evidence of anything serious. What is the reinfection rate? Is it even possible? There has been one report out of China indicating it is possible, but this is not confirmed.

In earlier times (when I was very young) with more serious diseases (in long term effects as best we can tell) the drill was to build herd immunity. Simply put, intentionally infect those who were not immune so as to mitigate future outbreaks. Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox, etc. When one child came down with the infection, mom would expose the rest of the kids (above a certain age). This is no longer necessary or done because of vaccines.

Currently the professional thinking is socially distancing the herd. The effect of this is you build no herd immunity and society is susceptible to this strain reoccurring and putting society through this again. The best plan may actually be, isolate those most likely to not survive or have really bad cases (for say a month), and give it to everyone else just as moms did in an earlier era and let them proceed about their daily lives. Of course there are a bunch of unknows with this plan, risks. But there are known risks, health and economic with the kinds of plans the healthcare professionals are currently considering. Going down the path of the professionals we become absolutely dependent on the development of a vaccine. Mom's solution not so much.

Just a thought.

Interesting take but what about viral modification and mutation? Herd immunity for this particular CoronaVirus but if it changes just slightly? There is a reason we do not have a vaccine for the common cold. I think before I would subscribe to your train of thought I would like to see how the virus reacts and what is the probability it mutates. And yes, there is also the possibility a vaccine is ineffective due to the same situation.

Yup. There are still a bunch of unknowns that need answering before I would even think about recommending this course of action. I hear / see no evidence anyone is trying to get those answers. I can only assume there are some researchers who understand all this and are looking for those answers. We do know (from the Chinese) that there are at least two strains, but this seems much like the flu (A & B).

Pay your money and take your chances. We could end up doing more damage to society and our economy than if we chose mom's solution. You just don't know. It will become clear most likely after we have made the choice.

[jhu72]

Amd still no clue if the virus evolves into different strains like the flu

The Chinese identified and published last week that there are two "strains". So called "L" and "S".

[Trinity]

Unfortunately the CDC isn’t tracking all infections in the US as private labs aren't required to report to them. I swear, they’re screwing this up on purpose.

[old salt]

Amd still no clue if the virus evolves into different strains like the flu

The Chinese identified and published last week that there are two "strains". So called "L" and "S".

Wasn't the original COVID19 a mutation ?

[a fan]

Thanks for posting that thought.
I've had that same thought for a couple days, but figured it would be politicized if I posted it.

"cocoon" the vulnerable, & let the <60 healthy herd roam free.

The logic here is understandable.

As for the politicalization, I think the forum has done a remarkable job of keeping its powder dry, given the performance of our government thus far....