School Closings

[OCanada]

South Korea, discovered it the same day the USA did now has drive through testing. Takes about 10 minutes

If you have a Twitter account: Abraar Karan MD, MPH, DTM&H is a good notestream. In one the other day he cites a NYT article on how China has managed its situation. In addition he has a lengthy, for Twitter on the virus.

[Peter Brown]

and sayonara season.

I think Hopkins has already said that.

For some, divine intervention.

[xxxxxxx]

Here are more University closings of in person classes, heading to on line. Again the real situation as far as lacrosse is concerned is when they start closing dorms and sending students home.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/09/fordham-p ... -outbreak/

[pcowlax]

I really try to stick to lax on here but felt compelled to jump in here based on some of the above posts. To get it out of the way I am not an ID doc but I am a physician along with a PhD in biostatistics and epidemiology so I have some familiarity with both the bug and its propagation. The posts dismissing this as some media creation or PC hysteria (and god knows I hate PC hysteria, let's just say Bernie/Biden are not my bag) are incredibly ignorant. The severity of this virus was evident very quickly based on the Chinese response to it. Totalitarian dictatorship that they are, their actions were most certainly not driven by the media. Their rapid quarantining (after the initial coverup) of tens of millions, which led to a massive economic hit on their own country, showed definitively for those with the eyes to see that this was something new under the sun. They did nothing like this for SARS, bird flu, H1N1, etc. Those who try to dismiss this with comparisons to Ebola are so ignorant as to barely warrant a response. Ebola is, in the vast majority of cases, transmitted via bodily fluid. Corona is a highly contagious respiratory virus. Saying that Ebola was hyped and didn't spread so therefore this is overhyped is to say that cats have fur because peanut butter is sticky. Similarly those who dismiss this because it has "only" a 2% mortality or because of how many few patients it has killed relative to influenza are insane. First, WHO is currently saying 3.4%. I think that is wrong and I think it is even less than 2%, lets say 1.5%. The "flu" has a mortality most years of between 0.05 and 0.1%. This is about 20-40x more lethal. In the elderly (who, as someone said above, still count) it seems to be approaching 10-15%. A high R0 respiratory virus with mortality of 10% in the overall population would be the end of civilization, at least for the short term. This is not that but even 2% is a black swan virus. Even if it was only 0.1%, the same as the flu (which it is not)....this outbreak would be as though there had never been the flu before. What if the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands around the world, just appeared for the first time ever? It would be dismissed because, initially, it had "only" killed a few thousand. This is extremely serious. That said, it obviously is not Captain Trips. The vast majority of people who catch it will be fine and most will barely even be very ill. The disruptions on society however are teetering on the edge of massive. If, in two weeks, it is still spreading in the US (and it is much wider spread than appreciated due to the pathetic lack of test kits), I think everything may be cancelled, lax, NBA, movies, schools, Broadway, etc. Look at Italy, Japan and South Korea. Massive, draconian quarantine and closure of public events can work but plays havoc on a society and its economy. I sold a few weeks ago. Hopefully it will just blow over when the weather warms. But watch games this spring while you can. This may be the one thing that can put Hopkins out of its misery.

[kramerica.inc]

South Korea, discovered it the same day the USA did now has drive through testing. Takes about 10 minutes

If you have a Twitter account: Abraar Karan MD, MPH, DTM&H is a good notestream. In one the other day he cites a NYT article on how China has managed its situation. In addition he has a lengthy, for Twitter on the virus.

We have the same for Healthcare workers right now.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/08/81348650 ... ng-centers

I expect a limited use of testing, unless needed.

[NovaHound]

Thank you - I was hesitant to read this blog but not much was happening today so I did. I'm no Doctor but I do know statistics and I appreciate the candid response, particularly how China handled it. Total shutdown for over 50 million during their equivalent of New Years/Holiday Season. Some people just won't understand This could get bad. Sorry I don't have anything to offer like you did. Well said.

[OCanada]

South Korea has it for everyone - drive they. We have turned people away who can’t get approval for a test. We don’t know what we don’t know

[primitiveskills]

I really try to stick to lax on here but felt compelled to jump in here based on some of the above posts. To get it out of the way I am not an ID doc but I am a physician along with a PhD in biostatistics and epidemiology so I have some familiarity with both the bug and its propagation. The posts dismissing this as some media creation or PC hysteria (and god knows I hate PC hysteria, let's just say Bernie/Biden are not my bag) are incredibly ignorant. The severity of this virus was evident very quickly based on the Chinese response to it. Totalitarian dictatorship that they are, their actions were most certainly not driven by the media. Their rapid quarantining (after the initial coverup) of tens of millions, which led to a massive economic hit on their own country, showed definitively for those with the eyes to see that this was something new under the sun. They did nothing like this for SARS, bird flu, H1N1, etc. Those who try to dismiss this with comparisons to Ebola are so ignorant as to barely warrant a response. Ebola is, in the vast majority of cases, transmitted via bodily fluid. Corona is a highly contagious respiratory virus. Saying that Ebola was hyped and didn't spread so therefore this is overhyped is to say that cats have fur because peanut butter is sticky. Similarly those who dismiss this because it has "only" a 2% mortality or because of how many few patients it has killed relative to influenza are insane. First, WHO is currently saying 3.4%. I think that is wrong and I think it is even less than 2%, lets say 1.5%. The "flu" has a mortality most years of between 0.05 and 0.1%. This is about 20-40x more lethal. In the elderly (who, as someone said above, still count) it seems to be approaching 10-15%. A high R0 respiratory virus with mortality of 10% in the overall population would be the end of civilization, at least for the short term. This is not that but even 2% is a black swan virus. Even if it was only 0.1%, the same as the flu (which it is not)....this outbreak would be as though there had never been the flu before. What if the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands around the world, just appeared for the first time ever? It would be dismissed because, initially, it had "only" killed a few thousand. This is extremely serious. That said, it obviously is not Captain Trips. The vast majority of people who catch it will be fine and most will barely even be very ill. The disruptions on society however are teetering on the edge of massive. If, in two weeks, it is still spreading in the US (and it is much wider spread than appreciated due to the pathetic lack of test kits), I think everything may be cancelled, lax, NBA, movies, schools, Broadway, etc. Look at Italy, Japan and South Korea. Massive, draconian quarantine and closure of public events can work but plays havoc on a society and its economy. I sold a few weeks ago. Hopefully it will just blow over when the weather warms. But watch games this spring while you can. This may be the one thing that can put Hopkins out of its misery.

Thank you for this post. Truth is good, even if some don't want to hear it.

[Bart]

I really try to stick to lax on here but felt compelled to jump in here based on some of the above posts. To get it out of the way I am not an ID doc but I am a physician along with a PhD in biostatistics and epidemiology so I have some familiarity with both the bug and its propagation. The posts dismissing this as some media creation or PC hysteria (and god knows I hate PC hysteria, let's just say Bernie/Biden are not my bag) are incredibly ignorant. The severity of this virus was evident very quickly based on the Chinese response to it. Totalitarian dictatorship that they are, their actions were most certainly not driven by the media. Their rapid quarantining (after the initial coverup) of tens of millions, which led to a massive economic hit on their own country, showed definitively for those with the eyes to see that this was something new under the sun. They did nothing like this for SARS, bird flu, H1N1, etc. Those who try to dismiss this with comparisons to Ebola are so ignorant as to barely warrant a response. Ebola is, in the vast majority of cases, transmitted via bodily fluid. Corona is a highly contagious respiratory virus. Saying that Ebola was hyped and didn't spread so therefore this is overhyped is to say that cats have fur because peanut butter is sticky. Similarly those who dismiss this because it has "only" a 2% mortality or because of how many few patients it has killed relative to influenza are insane. First, WHO is currently saying 3.4%. I think that is wrong and I think it is even less than 2%, lets say 1.5%. The "flu" has a mortality most years of between 0.05 and 0.1%. This is about 20-40x more lethal. In the elderly (who, as someone said above, still count) it seems to be approaching 10-15%. A high R0 respiratory virus with mortality of 10% in the overall population would be the end of civilization, at least for the short term. This is not that but even 2% is a black swan virus. Even if it was only 0.1%, the same as the flu (which it is not)....this outbreak would be as though there had never been the flu before. What if the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands around the world, just appeared for the first time ever? It would be dismissed because, initially, it had "only" killed a few thousand. This is extremely serious. That said, it obviously is not Captain Trips. The vast majority of people who catch it will be fine and most will barely even be very ill. The disruptions on society however are teetering on the edge of massive. If, in two weeks, it is still spreading in the US (and it is much wider spread than appreciated due to the pathetic lack of test kits), I think everything may be cancelled, lax, NBA, movies, schools, Broadway, etc. Look at Italy, Japan and South Korea. Massive, draconian quarantine and closure of public events can work but plays havoc on a society and its economy. I sold a few weeks ago. Hopefully it will just blow over when the weather warms. But watch games this spring while you can. This may be the one thing that can put Hopkins out of its misery.

Well stated. Thanks.

[admin]

All, keep the politics off the lacrosse forums/threads.

[old salt]

I really try to stick to lax on here but felt compelled to jump in here based on some of the above posts. To get it out of the way I am not an ID doc but I am a physician along with a PhD in biostatistics and epidemiology so I have some familiarity with both the bug and its propagation. The posts dismissing this as some media creation or PC hysteria (and god knows I hate PC hysteria, let's just say Bernie/Biden are not my bag) are incredibly ignorant. The severity of this virus was evident very quickly based on the Chinese response to it. Totalitarian dictatorship that they are, their actions were most certainly not driven by the media. Their rapid quarantining (after the initial coverup) of tens of millions, which led to a massive economic hit on their own country, showed definitively for those with the eyes to see that this was something new under the sun. They did nothing like this for SARS, bird flu, H1N1, etc. Those who try to dismiss this with comparisons to Ebola are so ignorant as to barely warrant a response. Ebola is, in the vast majority of cases, transmitted via bodily fluid. Corona is a highly contagious respiratory virus. Saying that Ebola was hyped and didn't spread so therefore this is overhyped is to say that cats have fur because peanut butter is sticky. Similarly those who dismiss this because it has "only" a 2% mortality or because of how many few patients it has killed relative to influenza are insane. First, WHO is currently saying 3.4%. I think that is wrong and I think it is even less than 2%, lets say 1.5%. The "flu" has a mortality most years of between 0.05 and 0.1%. This is about 20-40x more lethal. In the elderly (who, as someone said above, still count) it seems to be approaching 10-15%. A high R0 respiratory virus with mortality of 10% in the overall population would be the end of civilization, at least for the short term. This is not that but even 2% is a black swan virus. Even if it was only 0.1%, the same as the flu (which it is not)....this outbreak would be as though there had never been the flu before. What if the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands around the world, just appeared for the first time ever? It would be dismissed because, initially, it had "only" killed a few thousand. This is extremely serious. That said, it obviously is not Captain Trips. The vast majority of people who catch it will be fine and most will barely even be very ill. The disruptions on society however are teetering on the edge of massive. If, in two weeks, it is still spreading in the US (and it is much wider spread than appreciated due to the pathetic lack of test kits), I think everything may be cancelled, lax, NBA, movies, schools, Broadway, etc. Look at Italy, Japan and South Korea. Massive, draconian quarantine and closure of public events can work but plays havoc on a society and its economy. I sold a few weeks ago. Hopefully it will just blow over when the weather warms. But watch games this spring while you can. This may be the one thing that can put Hopkins out of its misery.

Thank you for the sobering assessment.
I found the below link helpful & posted it in another forum.

imho -- until there is a representative sampling of tests, across the population, we won't know what we are dealing with.
Until then, reasonable mitigation measures seem prudent.

Hopefully the Hopkins-Navy series will get revived, even if Coach B has to accept the key to Crabtown wearing a hazmat suit.
Plenty of room in NMCMS for social distancing. The free PLN webcast, with VONL's call, is network quality.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... s-covid-19

We don’t need testing just to diagnose sick people coming into doctor’s offices and hospitals. We also need testing to do surveillance out in communities. “You actually have to go out like now in many places in the US and start taking samples from people,”

Those surveillance studies will help us understand how prevalent milder cases are in populations. And the addition of those milder cases into data sets will help researchers determine, more accurately, how deadly this virus is, whom it tends to infect, and how often people spread it before showing symptoms. As testing ramps up, be prepared to hear about a lot more cases of Covid-19 in the US.

All that information can then be used to better halt the spread of the illness.

Again, without testing, we’re in the dark. And while we’re in the dark, the virus can spread. “We don’t know what the prevalence actually is,”
“So in the short term, I think that we’re going to start seeing community spread in a number of places other than Seattle.”

[Ghost]

I really try to stick to lax on here but felt compelled to jump in here based on some of the above posts. To get it out of the way I am not an ID doc but I am a physician along with a PhD in biostatistics and epidemiology so I have some familiarity with both the bug and its propagation. The posts dismissing this as some media creation or PC hysteria (and god knows I hate PC hysteria, let's just say Bernie/Biden are not my bag) are incredibly ignorant. The severity of this virus was evident very quickly based on the Chinese response to it. Totalitarian dictatorship that they are, their actions were most certainly not driven by the media. Their rapid quarantining (after the initial coverup) of tens of millions, which led to a massive economic hit on their own country, showed definitively for those with the eyes to see that this was something new under the sun. They did nothing like this for SARS, bird flu, H1N1, etc. Those who try to dismiss this with comparisons to Ebola are so ignorant as to barely warrant a response. Ebola is, in the vast majority of cases, transmitted via bodily fluid. Corona is a highly contagious respiratory virus. Saying that Ebola was hyped and didn't spread so therefore this is overhyped is to say that cats have fur because peanut butter is sticky. Similarly those who dismiss this because it has "only" a 2% mortality or because of how many few patients it has killed relative to influenza are insane. First, WHO is currently saying 3.4%. I think that is wrong and I think it is even less than 2%, lets say 1.5%. The "flu" has a mortality most years of between 0.05 and 0.1%. This is about 20-40x more lethal. In the elderly (who, as someone said above, still count) it seems to be approaching 10-15%. A high R0 respiratory virus with mortality of 10% in the overall population would be the end of civilization, at least for the short term. This is not that but even 2% is a black swan virus. Even if it was only 0.1%, the same as the flu (which it is not)....this outbreak would be as though there had never been the flu before. What if the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands around the world, just appeared for the first time ever? It would be dismissed because, initially, it had "only" killed a few thousand. This is extremely serious. That said, it obviously is not Captain Trips. The vast majority of people who catch it will be fine and most will barely even be very ill. The disruptions on society however are teetering on the edge of massive. If, in two weeks, it is still spreading in the US (and it is much wider spread than appreciated due to the pathetic lack of test kits), I think everything may be cancelled, lax, NBA, movies, schools, Broadway, etc. Look at Italy, Japan and South Korea. Massive, draconian quarantine and closure of public events can work but plays havoc on a society and its economy. I sold a few weeks ago. Hopefully it will just blow over when the weather warms. But watch games this spring while you can. This may be the one thing that can put Hopkins out of its misery.

Btw Dr... loved your Hopkins comment

Is anyone from this "school Closings" thread, so concerned, that they are proactively pulling their kid(s) out of college?
...my guess is not too many - but for some, it's too hard to resist, being a doomsayers troll, anyway...
Ha!

[44WeWantMore]

Not college, but in my local school district two students and one staff member went to a facility where one provider was diagnosed.
The students and staff are showing no symptoms, and the County says there is no risk of transmission (I read elsewhere that is not 100% true), but they will be quarantined for 14 days and all 10 schools in the entire district are closing for a day for decontamination.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Princeton update:

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/03/ ... e-covid-19

Read through that - events with 100+ people can only use one-third of a venue.

Stay six feet apart.

Athletic events may be modified - to decrease the need for a crowd or audience. Further details on arrangements are being finalized.

[Peter Brown]

Princeton update:

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/03/ ... e-covid-19

Read through that - events with 100+ people can only use one-third of a venue.

Stay six feet apart.

Athletic events may be modified - to decrease the need for a crowd or audience. Further details on arrangements are being finalized.

Six feet apart should be no problem for any Hopkins fan, since that's the same safety distance their defense gives opposing offenses.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Princeton update:

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/03/ ... e-covid-19

Read through that - events with 100+ people can only use one-third of a venue.

Stay six feet apart.

Athletic events may be modified - to decrease the need for a crowd or audience. Further details on arrangements are being finalized.

Six feet apart should be no problem for any Hopkins fan, since that's the same safety distance their defense gives opposing offenses.

I’m awaiting a study of how much virus is blown out of the band’s brass and woodwind instruments.

[OCanada]

AA County MD Board of Ed has cancelled all staff travel out of state and out of County.

[ICGrad]

So if this continues to escalate and we see the NCAA Tourney, cancelled, here's betting Hopkins steps in and has themselves voted National Champs...

[44WeWantMore]

In case those seem like over-reactions, St. Louis went into a comparative lock-down, Philadelphia did not:
https://microbialmenagerie.com/social-d ... -covid-19/



Even smoothing out the same number of cases reduces the stress on ICUs, ventilators, etc.

[Peter Brown]

U.S. Surgeon General: “If you are a child or young adult, you are more likely to die from the flu if you get it than you are to die from coronavirus.”