Johns Hopkins 2020

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viper
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by viper »

OCanada wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:19 pm Hopkins never had a policy that a great player could gain admission regardless of academic record. Plain and simple.

If an athlete did not meet standard but would otherwise attend there was a vetting process that had to decide whether they could be expected to graduate. It was conservative because if an exception was needed they didn’t want to make a mistake.

The demise of wooden sticks was due to a fire at a Canadian Indian factory. Bacharach, if memory serves, would choose sticks for the team to consider from their inventory.

If anyone had a pipeline to sticks by the Onandaga it was Cuse.

I would be tempted to argue lax players who graduated on average out earned the average grad.
Anecdotally I am keenly aware of several lacrosse players who were there with me decades ago whose academic credentials were far below the norm of the day for the rest of the class. Having said that, maybe they were all exceptions who were vetted by powers that be per your description above.

I would also never doubt the higher income earnings of the lax graduate - as a high percentage end up in financial circles like Wall St,(a lot of which is based on the lax connections as documented in many articles that highlight that). Even now, there is a pipeline from lacrosse at MANY schools to Wall Street and related businesses. There have also been correlations between high performing athletes and success in the for profit world as there are probably characteristics that are common to success in both.

I don't begrudge Hopkins for bending standards in order to improve the product on the field, there aren't too many institutions who don't (then and now). However, it would be lying to try to minimize the fact that it has happened or how often it does occur.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by OCanada »

Yes.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by norcalhop »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:03 pm
OCanada wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:19 pm Hopkins never had a policy that a great player could gain admission regardless of academic record. Plain and simple.

If an athlete did not meet standard but would otherwise attend there was a vetting process that had to decide whether they could be expected to graduate. It was conservative because if an exception was needed they didn’t want to make a mistake.

The demise of wooden sticks was due to a fire at a Canadian Indian factory. Bacharach, if memory serves, would choose sticks for the team to consider from their inventory.

If anyone had a pipeline to sticks by the Onandaga it was Cuse.

I would be tempted to argue lax players who graduated on average out earned the average grad.
Yes, Bacharach Raisin was the pipeline, Baltimore based. And Hopkins got first choice.
The demise was not a fire per se, it was the rise of the STX head. IMO.

And yeah, guys with abysmal academic records regularly got into Hopkins. Which in no way is to denigrate other guys, nor the ones with poor academic records for that matter...quite a lot of guys blossom quite successfully in their lives without being academic stars! And I know some very bright, accomplished Hop lax alums, so please don't misunderstand me.

By whether they could be expected to graduate, that of course involved what accommodations were available to get a less academically competent or motivated athlete through school, whether through gut courses or otherwise. Far from a Hop specific thing.

And I dare say that, at least in my era, UMD's rep for academic requirements was even less.

On the "out earned", I think there's definitely a phenomenon, probably even more so in earlier eras, of guys with a strong sports team background (with all that means) who thrive in the competitive world of business in particular. Gotta remember that Hopkins' undergraduate experience (especially in STEM) has historically been geared toward academia/research, not industry. Or medicine. The institution as a whole viewed business (and law) as crass.

I'm on the advisory board of The Center for Leadership Education, housed in the Whiting School of Engineering but serving the entire community, which is working to help build the 'soft skills' necessary to be leaders in industry as well. Good progress but more to be done, given the legacy of the academia bias.
With regards to underqualified lacrosse athletes "regularly getting in" - do you have facts or are these more anecdata? Hopkins has no problem getting undergraduates into the upper echelon of business fields today (especially in consulting, finance) and ofcourse comp sci which earns more than these other fields anyways. In fact placement at the top banking and consulting firms is pretty good. What needs to change (and is happening now) is more exposure to these fields to undergraduates.
Last edited by norcalhop on Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
norcalhop
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by norcalhop »

DTTMT2018 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:53 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:04 am
norcalhop wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:52 am
DTTMT2018 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:13 pm New to fanlax posting, but have been an avid reader for years. During that time, I've casually observed the activity on this particular forum and have noted the intensity with which JHU fans care about their lax team (often admiringly, often with a degree of shock, looking at you Wilkins Dismuke). But I've been thinking recently...

At what point does JHU stop being the top tier men's lax program that it has been for all these years and move to the second tier of programs in the realm of Towson, Villanova, Marquette, etc? I think in the past, hs recruits were (and many still are) wowed by the history and high profile nature of the program, not to mention the success year after year on the field. That profile, combined with the academics, made it THE place to go for the best recruits in the country.

Recently though, recruiting has fallen by the wayside compared to what it once was, the team hasn't won an NCAA playoff game in years, and it seems like other schools are becoming viable alternatives to JHU's mix of academics and athletics. For example, Penn and Yale 10-20 years ago wouldn't have dreamed of pulling the caliber of recruits that JHU, Maryland, and ACC teams did, but nowadays, they certainly are, just look at Yale's recruiting class next year. I'm thinking of the type of kid in HS that is a good student, but also very talented on the field. Why wouldn't he go Ivy (maybe excluding Dartmouth) if he knows the recent success of Yale, Penn, Cornell on the national stage over JHU??? What does JHU offer that those programs don't. I'm sure people on this page will say Hopkins is a great school, and it is, but it doesn't have the reputation of the Ivys/Duke/UVa.

Also, I've had conversations with several former JHU players who have made the claim that when comparing their social experiences at JHU to the experiences of peers at Big10, Ivy, ACC schools, they don't really compare. This is obviously hard to give real value to as a highschooler, but it certainly evident upon arrival at college and in post-grad life.

I think that the issue with this program is less a function of Petro and more a function of the evolving landscape in college lax. I'm ready for someone to prove me wrong, or for JHU to go on a huge run to make me look like an idiot, but again I pose the question: when (if ever) does JHU turn into a second tier program?
lol - nice try trolling but at least try and get some facts straight. Coming from Stanford in Cali, Hopkins has a far stellar reputation than many ivies save for HYPS due to its STEM prowess (which are bad at dartmouth and brown and deficient from a penn engineering perspective). And yea, way off on the playoff games "many years" as pointed out by others.
STEM is "bad at Dartmouth"???
Yikes, that's uninformed.
And very, very few lax players are choosing their destination schools based on rep for STEM in specific. Overall rep, sure, but not STEM in specific.


But hey, I do agree with the 'trolling' accusation re "second tier".
Hopkins will be a "second tier" lax school only if and when that's the decision, else they'd already be an MIT program.

The newbie poster appears to have very little sense of the history of the game, whether at Hopkins or the Ivies. Of course, his moniker includes "2018" so maybe he's just young...

Hopkins was never a top lax school because the athletes were going there because it was the best school.
They weren't there "for the academics" in the same sense that recruits chose Ivy.
At least not most of them. (of course some exceptions). Unless we're comparing with recruits to UMD? ;)
In most and maybe all decades, the admission standards for Hopkins recruits were not constrained by the rest of the school's academic standards. Fact.

By dint of historical chance, Hopkins was at the epicenter of the game as it developed, with a tight pipeline to the very best Native American sticks. Baltimore's hotbed (back then both private and public) fueled those early teams and the building of a premier legacy.

For many years, pre the growth of pro sports, Hopkins lacrosse games outdrew pro sports and regularly occupied front page coverage. That legacy became a juggernaut. The school committed to it.

The game has spread immensely and many of those early advantages no longer exist.
But there's no reason why, with institutional commitment, that Hopkins can't be at least on par with the top 10 programs, regularly in the top 4.
I feel as if at multiple points, I could respond to the response I've received with an emphatic "Ok Boomer." Correct in that I am a recent college grad, but that doesn't mean I don't "have a sense of the history of the blah blah blah." I even referenced the great history of JHU and admire the contributions made to the sport on behalf of the program. I agree with basically all of your points here!

Including your point above ("Hopkins was never a top lax school because the athletes were going there because it was the best school.
They weren't there "for the academics" in the same sense that recruits chose Ivy."). This is why I asked the question..if kids aren't going to JHU because of the academics, and the program continues its decline, what is the draw? It is not as fun of a school when compared to others, post-grad options are poorer when compared to other schools, and their sextagenarian alumni on FanLax.com have no problem regularly eviscerating 18 and 19 year olds (again, looking at Wilkins, who read these forums).

Historically speaking, many of the Ivies I've referenced won NCAA football championships pre the growth of pro sports. Those legacies are still very strong, which I'm sure JHU's will continue to be, but where are those programs on the national stage now...

Again, I repeat my point that the issue is not with Petro (you could have any number of coaches leading this team), but with the overall structure of JHU and with the evolution of NCAA lax. If I was a betting man, and I am, I would bet that due to the points I made above, JHU will slip to the 2nd tier level in the coming years.

P.S. I admit I was wrong about the NCAA games, my mistake, but if my initial post was trolling (I guess you could now call this one trolling), then you guys need to reevaluate.

A lot of generalizations here. Recruiting has the #2 class in the country next year despite a lack of on field success relative to Hopkins' past - how has it fallen the way side? As for post grad options, how do you compare this? Do you have Hopkins' placement data at McKinsey, Bain, BCG, Goldman, Jp Morgan, Morgan Stanley IB (which I've seen and are high) etc etc and average salaries (which are higher than most of the previous schools you tried poorly to compare Hopkins with)?

No you don't - all you have are ambiguous statements not grounded in fact. I'm a few years older than you (probably 6 if you were class of 2018) - I'd caution you on betting on anything with the logic displayed thus far.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by Homer »

OCanada wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:43 pm Homer. Reposting. Apparently i did something wrong trying to get the original up.

I am aware of the history of Ivy coaches leaving to go elsewhere. Dave left Cornell 20 years ago. The game has changed in context and rules. The big winners have bee the Ivies and large state schools.

In the Ivies Yale, Cornell, Penn, Princeton have reason to believe they can make the playoffs and rightfully so. I don’t see those coaches leaving. Harvard will soon be a big competitor competing for talent. I suppose someone could leave for a big enough paycheck but they would be taking on challenges many would rather avoid in my opinion. To me it is a different time as far as Hopkins is concerned for a coach Hopkind would consider hiring
OC -- thanks for your reply. Agree with you completely that the Ivies collectively look to be arguably the strongest they've ever been in terms of program strength and support. I have no specific reason to believe any of the current group would be easy to move to another job. That said, I do think it's happened so often over the past 20-30 years that one should be wary of assuming that trend's going to stop. Bottom line -- if I'm the Hopkins AD I definitely would not mind having a casual conversation with Mike Murphy about what aspects of his current gig might be frustrating to him. Maybe it goes nowhere. But from the outside it doesn't strike me as an obvious waste of time.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by CU77 »

IMO, any Ivy coach (with the possible exception of Shay) would jump at the chance to coach JHU. And maybe Shay too.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by calourie »

Shay has made it repeatedly clear he isn't going anywhere.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

There will be applicants. Bank on it. I’m sure Nads would consider it.

I’m also sure a few big names will bandy about in order to get their current school to revise and improve their current contract. Happens all the time. Leverage.

But, while there are some parallels to Navy, with all due respect, this isn’t Navy.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

Massey ratings:
Massey20thPlace
Massey20thPlace
1E9E5DDD-492C-4EEA-AC81-68A53B356BAF.jpeg (222.07 KiB) Viewed 3433 times
Behind Providence.

Other Massey projections:

Syracuse 12-11. Favored, 61% vs 39%.

Rest of the season, projecting 5-4 rest of the way, which would make the season 6-7. Lose in first round of B1G, 6-8, no bid. Lose in B1G championship, 7-8, no bid.

Of that 5-4 projection, one win is over Rutgers, but only with a 52% vs 48% expectation at the moment. Lose that game, and they’re 1-4 in the B1G and not even playing in the BiG Tournament at all. That would be an end to the season at 5-8.

All of this is entirely possible. Basically AQ or bust.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

Krach ratings: 50th
KrachJHU50th
KrachJHU50th
B5A025AB-886B-47EE-91ED-8B643D983FF8.jpeg (231.29 KiB) Viewed 3429 times
Notes: Delaware is 27th (too far up for this screenshot file size)

Navy 46th
Rutgers 48th
Michigan 49th
Mount St. Mary’s 51st

All future opponents, clumped around Hopkins at 50th.

No easy days. Can’t come out flat. Hopkins has been having fairly good first quarters.

But, dang those 60 minute games...
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

laf’s LaxBytes projection:
LaxBytesPreSyracuse
LaxBytesPreSyracuse
F7533FF6-64B6-426B-9A49-64435B1C8D31.jpeg (208.21 KiB) Viewed 3419 times
Power ratings and home field advantage are key here.

SU 95.8
JHU 90.58

That difference projects to be a five goal victory for SU.

But, laf factors in a home field advantage of 2.78 goals.

Add that to JHU’s power ranking, and the delta projects to a 2.44 goal win for Cuse.

Nowadays, I’m not sure I buy a HFA of 2.78 for Hopkins, especially since every opponent raises it up a notch when they play the Jays.

Anyway, play the game. Hope to be pleasantly surprised.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

And, a bit more of a look down the stretch, using laf’s current numbers:
HopkinsSeason
HopkinsSeason
BE898B60-C5B2-4920-9FBE-6808637E7FAE.jpeg (73.46 KiB) Viewed 3419 times
Speaking of HFA and current power rankings, the rest of the season looks like:

L Syracuse
W Mount St. Mary’s
L Navy
L Delaware
W Michigan
L Rutgers
L Penn State
L Ohio State
L Maryland

That would be 3-10. But three of those Ls are driven by being away and HFA. Navy, Delaware and Rutgers. Hopkins will have to demonstrate that they can win on the road.

Why post all this? I’m curious as to how well Massey and laf’s projections are going to hold up. It’s still early in the season, of course, the models are data starved. But we are about a third of the way through the regular season.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by OCanada »

LAF got control of his formula from the LaxPower owner or is this a revised formula to avoid issues?

The issue with Navy wasn’t as an institution it was the way Navy treated Richie mostly. In some ways the same dynamic Hopkins is experiencing. A bunch of alums living in the past thinking Navy could dominate lax like it did in the 1960s demanding change and getting it.

They eventually found an asst coach they offered but his wife nixed the deal because she didn’t want to move. Then they found RS.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by OCanada »

Homer. I agree. I just don’t think it will matter in the end but if it did it could be a great payoff. Hopkins has some strong negatives many will not want to deal with. I do t think that applies to current coaches in the Ivies although they would be best prepared.

Nads has done a great job at Towson but he hasn’t had to deal with admissions standards as they are or the financial issues or the, to me, unrealistic expectations of the fan base, or questionable support given the lofty goals
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus »

OC, I’m not sure of what laf did to get where he is, but his LaxBytes site was up and running before or shortly after LP folded. I seem to recall it was up before the shutdown.

Same math. Not sure how the IP was handled.

I drove by the Arnold Veterinary Clinic a few weeks ago. Didn’t drop in for any shots.

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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by 44WeWantMore »

OCanada wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:43 am LAF got control of his formula from the LaxPower owner or is this a revised formula to avoid issues?

The issue with Navy wasn’t as an institution it was the way Navy treated Richie mostly. In some ways the same dynamic Hopkins is experiencing. A bunch of alums living in the past thinking Navy could dominate lax like it did in the 1960s demanding change and getting it.

They eventually found an asst coach they offered but his wife nixed the deal because she didn’t want to move. Then they found RS.
While I am no expert on Imaginary Property, I would be surprised if there would be valid issues:
- Patents: While patents are frequently granted with only cursory review, I cannot imagine one holding for a relatively straight-forward algorithm.
- Trademarks: My casual USPTO search comes up with only two active hits on power ranking. POWERANKING is owned by Cannondale (presumably the bicycle company) and COLLEGIATE POWER RANKINGS is owned by NATIONAL COLLEGIATE SCOUTING ASSOCIATION, LLC., which uses it to rank colleges using a combination of athletic and academic criteria. Now maybe Active Sate or its successors could try to claim a common law trademark, but I expect that is more trouble than it is worth.
- Copyright: In general you cannot copyright a short, descriptive phrase like power ranking
- Trade Secret: Since the algorithm was always public, that is a sure loser loser.

And separate from any IP, if LAF signed a no-compete of some sort, then I am certain he would never have created Laxbytes in the first place.
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by Sagittarius A* »

WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:15 am And, a bit more of a look down the stretch, using laf’s current numbers:

BE898B60-C5B2-4920-9FBE-6808637E7FAE.jpeg

Speaking of HFA and current power rankings, the rest of the season looks like:

L Syracuse
W Mount St. Mary’s
L Navy
L Delaware
W Michigan
L Rutgers
L Penn State
L Ohio State
L Maryland

That would be 3-10. But three of those Ls are driven by being away and HFA. Navy, Delaware and Rutgers. Hopkins will have to demonstrate that they can win on the road.

Why post all this? I’m curious as to how well Massey and laf’s projections are going to hold up. It’s still early in the season, of course, the models are data starved. But we are about a third of the way through the regular season.
If the Jays switched goalies today, I think that season outlook would change. Swapping out a .455 save ratio guy for a .60 SR player changes everything. I think if Giacolone starts today the team could be competitive, otherwise it's another blowout loss despite what Massey etc, say.
SU leads JHU right now in every statistical category including clearing, faceoffs and groundballs.
But changing out starters just isn't Petro's MO. He sticks with starters until the season is mostly over.
At this point, the writing is pretty much on the wall. Unless Petro makes the Final Four, I'm not seeing any kind of contract renewal.
The new AD's father, uncle, and grandfather all attended Hopkins. I bet she's been getting an earful.
The Hopkins lacrosse HC hasn't opened up in 20 years. I'm betting there will be no shortage of applicants for the job.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

norcalhop wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:34 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:03 pm
OCanada wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:19 pm Hopkins never had a policy that a great player could gain admission regardless of academic record. Plain and simple.

If an athlete did not meet standard but would otherwise attend there was a vetting process that had to decide whether they could be expected to graduate. It was conservative because if an exception was needed they didn’t want to make a mistake.

The demise of wooden sticks was due to a fire at a Canadian Indian factory. Bacharach, if memory serves, would choose sticks for the team to consider from their inventory.

If anyone had a pipeline to sticks by the Onandaga it was Cuse.

I would be tempted to argue lax players who graduated on average out earned the average grad.
Yes, Bacharach Raisin was the pipeline, Baltimore based. And Hopkins got first choice.
The demise was not a fire per se, it was the rise of the STX head. IMO.

And yeah, guys with abysmal academic records regularly got into Hopkins. Which in no way is to denigrate other guys, nor the ones with poor academic records for that matter...quite a lot of guys blossom quite successfully in their lives without being academic stars! And I know some very bright, accomplished Hop lax alums, so please don't misunderstand me.

By whether they could be expected to graduate, that of course involved what accommodations were available to get a less academically competent or motivated athlete through school, whether through gut courses or otherwise. Far from a Hop specific thing.

And I dare say that, at least in my era, UMD's rep for academic requirements was even less.

On the "out earned", I think there's definitely a phenomenon, probably even more so in earlier eras, of guys with a strong sports team background (with all that means) who thrive in the competitive world of business in particular. Gotta remember that Hopkins' undergraduate experience (especially in STEM) has historically been geared toward academia/research, not industry. Or medicine. The institution as a whole viewed business (and law) as crass.

I'm on the advisory board of The Center for Leadership Education, housed in the Whiting School of Engineering but serving the entire community, which is working to help build the 'soft skills' necessary to be leaders in industry as well. Good progress but more to be done, given the legacy of the academia bias.
With regards to underqualified lacrosse athletes "regularly getting in" - do you have facts or are these more anecdata? Hopkins has no problem getting undergraduates into the upper echelon of business fields today (especially in consulting, finance) and ofcourse comp sci which earns more than these other fields anyways. In fact placement at the top banking and consulting firms is pretty good. What needs to change (and is happening now) is more exposure to these fields to undergraduates.
On lax, anecdata.
In my day and for many decades, it was no mystery who could consider Hopkins and who they could get in.
And that, yes, regularly included some with abysmal academic records...the weren't "under qualified", they had exactly the sort of qualifications necessary...as a lacrosse player. Again, that's not to denigrate those players, or their team mates, or anyone else...read my post, please, in that regard.

I'm not saying that's identical today, but you betcha there's a big difference continuing today between the guys able to get in for say football or baseball than lacrosse. We can debate about whether that's appropriate or not, but it's a reality.

I'd be interested in your assertion that comp sci pays more than the upper echelons of business fields today (especially consulting and finance); Is this "anectdata"? Yes, Google and their ilk do grab a handful each year and pay top $, even before the kids even graduate, (as they certainly do at the Ivies, MIT, Stanford, etc) but you better be off the charts on the academic/brains side.

But here's my more serious question for you as you talk about comp sci or any other STEM background, what's the breakdown of majors for men's lax players versus football or baseball players at Hop, much less the guys and gals Google is picking?

Listen, I'm not saying that Hopkins could not or should not take an Ivy-like approach for lax, it's just that hasn't been the case to date (albeit I bet it's tougher today than in prior decades).

Let me also say that this isn't a particularly fruitful discussion... a lot of season ahead.
Last edited by MDlaxfan76 on Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
OCanada
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by OCanada »

44 when LaxPower was sold the rights to the formula were included. When the owner pulled the plug on LaxPower the rights still resided with the owner.
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2020

Post by Oak St »

Cuse will post a 20 spot & Nopkins won’t get past 10 today.

Should be fun !!
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