All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[a fan]

Report from the trenches.

All of our major suppliers have sent Coronavirus updates. Things like how they are handling it...restricted travel, assembling task forces, etc.

IMHO, we're really on an egg timer here. They have a few weeks to get this under control globally. If they don't? We're looking at a really bad global recession.

Think about the economics of Italy closing all schools and universities. How much economic activity does that kill?

Think about alllllll those Americans who don't have access to a doctor. Many of them work in restaurants. What happens when Americans do the math, and stop going out to eat?

[jhu72]

The news from Italy just got worse. They have had 49 deaths in the past 24 hours. Their take is that this crises will be with us through the end of the year and into next year. This will not resolve anytime soon. Average age of their dead patients is 80 years old. Total deaths went from 148 to 197 in 24 hours.

[Jim Malone]

Basel World 2020 (major watch showcase) and Geneva Motor Show cancelled. Porsche might make a virtual presentation over net.

[jhu72]

Basel World 2020 (major watch showcase) and Geneva Motor Show cancelled. Porsche might make a virtual presentation over net.

Many major scientific annual society meetings have already been canceled for the 2020 year. The hotel business is going to take it in the neck.

[Matnum PI]

Question: If there was no sensationalism, no attempts to create mass hysteria, just an even-keeled voice explaining that Corona is a flu and, like the flu, it can kill people, though the vast majority of deaths would be experienced by the infirmed. We do have flu shots. We do not (yet) have Corona Virus shots. If the Corona Virus was explained this way, would we be cancelling these events, having no audience sporting events, etc.?

[jhu72]

For those who believe our response to the virus has been good or even ok. Less than 2000 diagnostic tests have been performed to date. Why has the CDC changed their reporting protocol to one with zero transparency - who made that decision?

[jhu72]

Question: If there was no sensationalism, no attempts to create mass hysteria, just an even-keeled voice explaining that Corona is a flu and, like the flu, it can kill people, though the vast majority of deaths would be experienced by the infirmed. We do have flu shots. We do not (yet) have Corona Virus shots. If the Corona Virus was explained this way, would we be cancelling these events, having no audience sporting events, etc.?

Probably not. It would buy time. But ultimately this would be seen as a super flu, something special.

The hysteria last week was caused by the lack of transparency. Administration lying and citizens (physicians / scientists / researchers) being able to see through the weak ass lies and calling them out. This was not just the press, they are only an amplifier. The lies coming from someone who has proven to be an outrageous liar over the past 3 years. Perfect storm, driven by POTUS. I suspect by now many of his supporters are starting to see the truth.

[a fan]

Basel World 2020 (major watch showcase) and Geneva Motor Show cancelled. Porsche might make a virtual presentation over net.

Many major scientific annual society meetings have already been canceled for the 2020 year. The hotel business is going to take it in the neck.

I don't think that people understand how bad things are economically. We're rapidly approaching the point where bailouts are going to be needed.

No, I'm not kidding. Few US companies are prepared for a 20%-50% loss in sales almost instantaneously. Think about all those restaurants and ancillary businesses that depend on convention traffic....

[jhu72]

Basel World 2020 (major watch showcase) and Geneva Motor Show cancelled. Porsche might make a virtual presentation over net.

Many major scientific annual society meetings have already been canceled for the 2020 year. The hotel business is going to take it in the neck.

I don't think that people understand how bad things are economically. We're rapidly approaching the point where bailouts are going to be needed.

No, I'm not kidding. Few US companies are prepared for a 20%-50% loss in sales almost instantaneously. Think about all those restaurants and ancillary businesses that depend on convention traffic....

I know you are not kidding. I see the same thing. So does Orange Duce, that's why he is behaving the way he is. His pep talks are for his benefit.

[jhu72]

Addressing the Spring Break issue.

[Matnum PI]

But ultimately this would be seen as a super flu, something special.

it would only be seen as a super flu if people started (erroneously) calling it a super flu.

[a fan]

Question: If there was no sensationalism, no attempts to create mass hysteria, just an even-keeled voice explaining that Corona is a flu and, like the flu, it can kill people, though the vast majority of deaths would be experienced by the infirmed. We do have flu shots. We do not (yet) have Corona Virus shots. If the Corona Virus was explained this way, would we be cancelling these events, having no audience sporting events, etc.?

Nope.

Do we have anyone who Americans trust in the Federal Government who can explain that? It'd be great if that person stepped up to the mic.

[Matnum PI]

Nope.

I don't think so either.

[jhu72]

But ultimately this would be seen as a super flu, something special.

it would only be seen as a super flu if people started (erroneously) calling it a super flu.

I think only if you assume people remain ignorant. They won't.

[CU88]

We don’t have the tests. Walk it off, America.

Maybe it's the conspiracy theorist in me. I think Corona's been here and around the world, circulating for a while now.

I think it's likely many cases were just assumed to be the common cold or flu by patients...then the "oh shoot" moment/discovery occurred.

So we just ignore it and go one with our daily lives???

Not ignore, but certainly treat it like we treat bad flu/cold years.
The hysteria here was created because the Chinese gov treated it like they do everyhting else. Heavy handed and totalitarian. They treated it and it's people like there was a zombie virus outbreak.
Wash those hands, stay home from work/school if showing symptoms, and take those steps of closing schools/offices/sporting events if necessary. If you're older, younger or have medical history, take extra precautions - limit travel when possible.
I forget what outbreak it was a few years ago. The MIAA in Maryland mandated no shaking hands after lax games. The kids were relegated to going through the lineup and nodding their heads at eachother.
Simple, but smart. Inform people, and take a measured approach. It's not a cure-all but little things can certainly help.

+ 1

[DocBarrister]

Report from the trenches.

All of our major suppliers have sent Coronavirus updates. Things like how they are handling it...restricted travel, assembling task forces, etc.

IMHO, we're really on an egg timer here. They have a few weeks to get this under control globally. If they don't? We're looking at a really bad global recession.

Think about the economics of Italy closing all schools and universities. How much economic activity does that kill?

Think about alllllll those Americans who don't have access to a doctor. Many of them work in restaurants. What happens when Americans do the math, and stop going out to eat?

Hate to break the news, but we don’t have “a few weeks to get this under control globally.”

Those “few weeks” passed at least two months ago. That’s when the entire world should have ramped up their public health infrastructure, including the production of millions of test kits.

It’s not that a global pandemic is inevitable. No ... it’s that the global pandemic is already here and getting worse.

Now it is a matter of every nation on Earth doing their best to mitigate the harm, helping those infected, and containing the spread as much as possible.

Considering the ease of spread, and a still-undetermined mortality rate that may be anything from 10x to 35x that of “ordinary” flu (also varying with the inflicted subpopulation), this novel coronavirus cannot simply be handled like other flu epidemics.

This pandemic can be managed, but the world is already about two months behind.

DocBarrister

P.S. One minor quibble ... I wish Lyft drivers would stop opening all the windows even on the freeways. I understand their concerns, but I doubt that is really necessary.

[Trinity]

At Davos in January they had a WHO Experts Coronavirus Forum that Trump didn’t bother to attend, nor did Mnuchin, Ivanka and Jared.

[a fan]

Hate to break the news, but we don’t have “a few weeks to get this under control globally.”

Those “few weeks” passed at least two months ago.

That's not what I meant. There's the science...which is what you're talking about.

Then there's the fear, irrational public reaction, and economic damage that follows.

I'm talking about the latter. And the latter is where all the real damage occurs.

[old salt]

First cases in MD -- 3 cruisers. Montgomery Co. All self-quarantined at home, doing well & co-operating in contact tracing.
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/three-co ... d/31206429

[MDlaxfan76]

Hate to break the news, but we don’t have “a few weeks to get this under control globally.”

Those “few weeks” passed at least two months ago.

That's not what I meant. There's the science...which is what you're talking about.

Then there's the fear, irrational public reaction, and economic damage that follows.

I'm talking about the latter. And the latter is where all the real damage occurs.

Which, assuming you agree with Doc on the science, means that economic damage is unavoidable...now.
Could have been avoided, but it's too late.

Obviously that's not the only "real damage" as there really are going to be a lot of older folks who die from this thing. But I'm sure that's not what you intended by "real".