All things Chinese CoronaVirus

[jhu72]

Until we get credible estimates of the number of undetected, asymptomatic carriers in the population, the %'s are irrelevant.

You hope. Even South Korea rate is 10 to 20 times higher than influenza.

Thought flu was .1%?

Difficult number to pin down. The numbers I have seen (and use) says average year is about .05%. I think this year is about .1% but is thought to be an extra deadly year. So yes, closer to 10 times than 20 times. South Korea mortality rate has decreased significantly over the past week, the last time I looked at the numbers.

Talked to my wife this AM, pediatrician. She says the current thinking is that kids have a bit of natural immunity to this strain because they are little germ bags. Always have colds. They are full of coronavirus all the time, just not this strain, but close enough to provide a degree of immunity. Older folks, especially the elderly work hard to stay away from people with colds and as a consequence have fewer (common cold) coronavirus antibodies. The common cold may provide a degree of protection. Seems to make sense.

Possibly nit picking with the .1% but in this instance I’d think numbers really matter. At a time where people are on edge best estimates matter.

Interesting observation from your wife. It would make sense if true.

It gets even worse in my mind, knowing the influenza number. The current influenza point of care diagnostic accuracy is problematic to my mind. It has low false positives. If the test is positive, you got influenza. It however has high false negatives. If the test comes back negative, it is a 50-50 proposition as to whether you have influenza. Lots of influenza may go undetected using this diagnostic. This would tend to make influenza mortality rate higher than it really is. Wife tells me if she gets a negative result but the patient has the symptoms, she treats it like the flu. How this gets resolved in reporting to the health department is not clear.

[jhu72]

Until we get credible estimates of the number of undetected, asymptomatic carriers in the population, the %'s are irrelevant.

You hope. Even South Korea rate is 10 to 20 times higher than influenza.

Thought flu was .1%?

Difficult number to pin down. The numbers I have seen (and use) says average year is about .05%. I think this year is about .1% but is thought to be an extra deadly year. So yes, closer to 10 times than 20 times. South Korea mortality rate has decreased significantly over the past week, the last time I looked at the numbers.

Talked to my wife this AM, pediatrician. She says the current thinking is that kids have a bit of natural immunity to this strain because they are little germ bags. Always have colds. They are full of coronavirus all the time, just not this strain, but close enough to provide a degree of immunity. Older folks, especially the elderly work hard to stay away from people with colds and as a consequence have fewer (common cold) coronavirus antibodies. The common cold may provide a degree of protection. Seems to make sense.

Possibly nit picking with the .1% but in this instance I’d think numbers really matter. At a time where people are on edge best estimates matter.

Interesting observation from your wife. It would make sense if true.

might be a factor, but more likely IMO is the hypothesis that those with compromised respiratory and cardiovascular systems are most vulnerable, not to contracting it, but to the symptoms being fatal.

Both could be true. Getting sick is a statistical proposition.

[CU88]

Sick MAGA deplorables must be feeling better now that the Fed has cut rates to help with the outbreak of the COVID-19.

[jhu72]

Sick MAGA deplorables must be feeling better now that the Fed has cut rates to help with the outbreak of the COVID-19.

Yup, just what the doctor ordered.

[CU88]

This is an actual White House press release praising Trump’s response to coronavirus ... filled with people’s tweets ...

https://theweek.com/speedreads/899558/c ... s-response

DEPLORABLE

[foreverlax]

One economists view from yesterday...

By the time you read this, the Fed may already have cut rates. That is the situation we find ourselves in given the recent correction in equities, which were at a record high only eight trading days ago but were down 12.8% from that peak as of the market close on Friday.

Fears about the economic effects of the Coronavirus have driven equity prices lower and led to calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. But we think a rate cut – any rate cut – would be a mistake. Nominal GDP – real GDP growth plus inflation – is up 4.0% versus a year ago and up at a 4.4% annual rate in the past two years. These growth rates suggest short-term interest rates should be higher, not lower. If people become less productive because they’re scared of getting sick, lower interest rates won’t change that.

Part of the problem is that the Fed spent much of 2019 agonizing over potential trade wars and Brexit, resulting in three rate cuts of 25 basis points each. Yet, in the end, key trade agreements were reached and Brexit didn’t tank the UK economy, much less hurt the US. The Fed didn’t need to cut rates last year and shouldn’t now.

However, the Fed looks poised to move, either at the next meeting on March 18 or perhaps before. That’s the upshot of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday statement that the virus “poses evolving risks” the Fed is “closely monitoring developments,” the Fed will “act as appropriate to support the economy.” Clearly, a rate cut isn’t going to be able to cure a virus. However, the Fed believes that the higher asset prices that may result from lower rates will generate a “wealth effect” that boosts consumer spending and underpins demand.

Meanwhile, the futures market in federal funds is pricing in one 25 bp rate cut by March 18 and the market consensus is for three or four such cuts by the end of the year. The absence of any Fed pushback against these expectations suggests policymakers would be comfortable with this outcome, even though they’re not yet committed to fulfilling them.

This may sound odd at first. But if the Fed ends up cutting rates – again, a policy we think is unneeded and unhelpful – we think it should go big. Instead of trickling out measly little rate cuts of 25 bp each at the next few meetings, the Fed should cut rates by something like 75-100 bp all at once on or before March 18.

The key is that the Fed would then pair that one big rate cut with a statement, a “dot plot,” and a press conference that shows the Fed is committed to lifting rates back up once we’re past the economic fears related to the Coronavirus.

The problem with the drip, drip, drip approach is that if the Fed cuts rates only 25 bp while the market expects more rate cuts later on, it incents households and businesses to postpone activity and decisions. Why act now, when we all know rates are going even lower?

Again, the best option is doing nothing; monetary policy isn’t a flu vaccine and rates, as low as they already, are not an impediment to economic growth. But if the Fed is ready to act, decisive would be much better than wishy-washy.

So far, 50bp doesn't seem to impress the stock market.

[cradleandshoot]

Trump, as you know, can't wake up without lying.

Hell for as long as I can remember the vast majority of all our politicians lie their arses off to us every day. Suddenly in the era of Trump the FLP folks are suddenly aghast at this reality. I guess Trump lies too much much, he should be like all the other D and R politicians and reduce his lies to a more palatable amount.

Yes, we know he can't wake up without lying. He does it multiple times per day and we have tracked most of them. It's a level of lying nowhere close to "normal politicians".

You think your comments are funny, when in reality you're giving Trump the a-ok to do it even more. Your views are terrible for America and you don't even have a clue you're hurting us.

I guess as long as you get to own those "FLP" types, you don't care.

As Bill Envall would tell you... " here's your sign"

[Kismet]

Sick MAGA deplorables must be feeling better now that the Fed has cut rates to help with the outbreak of the COVID-19.

Yup, just what the doctor ordered.

But Pope Francis tested negative. He just has a bad cold.

Advice from a gas station attendant in Tennessee to avoid Coronavirus: “take a shot of Wild Turkey 101 before bed. It kills everything.”

[a fan]

So far, 50bp doesn't seem to impress the stock market.

So stupid. What is their plan for when we hit the inevitable recession?

Wash your hands well. That's what will fix this virus. That, and good, reliable, honest communication from our health officials.

[foreverlax]

So far, 50bp doesn't seem to impress the stock market.

So stupid. What is their plan for when we hit the inevitable recession?

Wash your hands well. That's what will fix this virus. That, and good, reliable, honest communication from our health officials.

There is ZERO chance a drop in rates will encourage me to shop more. Great question...wait for the inevitable complaining when they tighten back to current levels.

[CU88]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow) is the index of the 30 top-performing U.S. companies. The highest closing record is 29,551.42 set on Feb. 12, 2020.1 Investors were encouraged that the trade wars initiated by President Donald Trump were being resolved. They also liked the Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2019.

RECORD HIGH was three weeks ago! Today o d beats them into yet another Rate Cut!!!!!!!

DEPLORABLE

[CU88]

From CDC website.

60 cases = 6 Deaths




Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
On This Page
COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance
COVID-19 Cases in the United States Reported to CDC
States Reporting Cases of COVID-19 to CDC
Cases among Persons Repatriated to the United States
Updated March 3, 2020

This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*
Total cases: 60
Total deaths: 6
States reporting cases: 12

* These data represent cases detected and tested in the United States through U.S. public health surveillance systems since January 21, 2020. This includes both confirmed and presumptive positive cases reported to CDC. It does not include people who returned to the U.S. via State Department-chartered flights.

[Trinity]

“Because of botched efforts by the administration, Coronavirus numbers in the US are being grossly underreported. South Korea is testing more than 10,000 people every day. The US has not even tested 500 people overall. The numbers will get much worse.“

Joe Scarborough

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... us/607348/

On CNBC Ron Insana says restoring the experienced CDC pandemic team Trump canned two years ago would help more than a rate cute. (The US has learned a lot over the years.) We are flying blind without testing and this has the potential to overwhelm the US healthcare system.

[jhu72]

Washington state is now reporting another death from the nursing home. Patient died a week ago (Feb 26)!

AP report.

[CU88]

I just heard that there is now a case in Raleigh, NC. Someone who flew in from Washington State. Now they need to track down everyone on that flight...

MAGA DEPLORABLES thoughts & prayers for another Rate Cut!

[cradleandshoot]

Here in good old Rochester NY last weekend we had 4 people die from overdosing on fentanyl. Sorry to hijack the FLP glee fest for how many people will die from corona virus and why it is now all Trumps fault. I suppose I am stunned that none of the FLP jackwagons has blamed this outbreak on global warming yet. The operative word in that sentence was "yet" There has to be an FLP conspiracy theory to be put forth soon that Trump and Putin conspired together to create the corona virus in an attempt to kill off FLP voters... Holy cow if Trump is a congenital liar he still can't hold a candle to the sheepdip you FLP folks keep spreading. Just for clarification, can we also now blame fentanyl overdoses on climate change? It does seem to fit into the twisted logic out there in FLP land.

https://13wham.com/news/top-stories/pol ... n-two-days

[Typical Lax Dad]

Here in good old Rochester NY last weekend we had 4 people die from overdosing on fentanyl. Sorry to hijack the FLP glee fest for how many people will die from corona virus and why it is now all Trumps fault. I suppose I am stunned that none of the FLP jackwagons has blamed this outbreak on global warming yet. The operative word in that sentence was "yet" There has to be an FLP conspiracy theory to be put forth soon that Trump and Putin conspired together to create the corona virus in an attempt to kill off FLP voters... Holy cow if Trump is a congenital liar he still can't hold a candle to the sheepdip you FLP folks keep spreading. Just for clarification, can we also now blame fentanyl overdoses on climate change? It does seem to fit into the twisted logic out there in FLP land.

https://13wham.com/news/top-stories/pol ... n-two-days

Any businesses shut down over Fentanyl? How much market cap did your company lose over a heroine over dose?

[Trinity]

Would Cradle let Trump pack his parachute? I think not.

Sorry. The US government response is FUBAR. Once again, no evidence.

[cradleandshoot]

Would Cradle let Trump pack his parachute? I think not.

Sorry. The US government response is FUBAR. Once again, no evidence.

This is the same government over how many administrations that has allowed heroin and fentanyl to kill unspeakable numbers of Americans? The government response is FUBAR to a virus they are just now working to try and understand. There ain't no magic effing wand out there skippy. Well if you define the government response to the corona virus as FUBAR, you are talking par for the course. There are many, many now dead overdose victims that if they could speak, could vouch for that. I'm still stunned that none of you FLP jack wagons has blamed the virus on climate change...yet

[seacoaster]

Here's a confidence builder:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... ine-event/

"As a private citizen and presidential candidate, Donald Trump was a proponent of vaccine skepticism — ignoring the scientific consensus on stuff like how vaccines don’t cause autism. As president, he is now surrounded by experts on the subject, including on Monday when he held a coronavirus roundtable with his task force and the heads of several pharmaceutical companies.

Yet despite the increasingly scary situation involving the disease and preparations having been underway for weeks, he still appears rather clueless on the subject.

At the event Monday, Trump peppered the drug companies with questions that were some variant of “How fast can you get it done?” But despite this having been a focal point in recent weeks, he still didn’t seem to process the fact that producing a vaccine means conducting months and months of trials before it can be deployed. He even at one point asked whether the flu vaccine could be used to combat coronavirus.

After Leonard Schleifer, the founder and chief executive of Regeneron, said his company aimed to have 200,000 doses ready by August, Trump asked him, “That means you’d be able to use the vaccine that early?” He added, “So that process would be faster than John’s?” referring to another CEO.

After another CEO took a turn, Trump asked him, “So you’re talking over the next few months, you think you could have a vaccine?"

The CEO clarified that it would be ready only for phase two of testing at that point. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, added: “Yeah. You won’t have a vaccine. You’ll have a vaccine to go into testing."

“And how long would that take?” Trump asked. The CEO said it would take months and then head into phase three. “All right. So you’re talking within a year.”

“A year to a year and a half,” Fauci again clarified.

“Well, but, Lenny is talking about two months, right?” Trump said, incorrectly referring to Schleifer’s August estimate.

“A little — a little longer,” Schleifer again clarified. “A little longer.”

“A couple of months, right?” Trump pressed. “I mean, I like the sound of a couple of months better, I must be honest with you.”

That’s when Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar cut in, again emphasizing the difference between being ready for testing and ready to deploy.

“But when you say June phase one initiation, though — right? — in June, it’s not a completed vaccine,” Azar said.

Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to follow the outbreak

What’s remarkable about these exchanges is that Fauci has explained all of this — in front of Trump and publicly. At a White House briefing on Thursday, Fauci laid out a detailed timetable for clinical testing and concluded, “So although this is the fastest we have ever gone from a sequence of a virus to a trial, it still would not be applicable to the epidemic unless we really wait about a year to a year and a half.”

Trump on Monday eventually relented and set the goal posts at about a year from now. “So can you have it ready for next season, any of you?” he asked. “I mean, would you say, for the next season?”

Several CEOs said they hoped to, but Paul Stoffels, Johnson & Johnson’s chief scientific officer, stepped in to clarify, saying: “Yeah. But, like many people said, we have to be very careful here. If you vaccinate several hundred million people … ”

“You’ve got to make sure it works,” Trump said.

“Works and is safe,” Stoffels said. “Yeah."

“And it doesn’t hurt,” Trump said. “Right.”

Eventually, Trump turned to the efficacy of the potential vaccines, and again he seemed unfamiliar with how much is known at this point. He mentioned that seasonal flu vaccines are different every year, but that they are often somewhat ineffective.

“And yet, I hear numbers that are better than that with respect to corona,” Trump said. “You think you can really knock it out and that’s because you know specifically what it is, I suspect. So that’s impressive.”

Schleifer clarified that there’s still so much that is unknown. And that’s when Trump asked about whether they could just use the flu vaccine.

“But the same vaccine could not work?” he said. “You take a solid flu vaccine — you don’t think that would have an impact or much of an impact on corona?”

“No,” Schleifer replied.

“Probably not,” Fauci added.

Soon, Trump returned to his preferred months-long timetable. Asked by a reporter whether he’s comfortable with this taking longer than that, Trump again sounded as though he hadn’t heard everything the CEOs and experts had just told him.

“I don’t think they know what the time will be,” Trump said. “I’ve heard very quick numbers — a matter of months — and I’ve heard pretty much a year would be an outside number.”

Again, Fauci had said a year to 18 months.

“But if you’re talking about three to four months, in a couple of cases, and a year in other cases — wouldn’t you say, doctor, would that be about right?” Trump said.

When a reporter pressed on whether Trump really thought the months-long timetable was viable for a vaccine, Fauci cut in. And he actually asked that the president be educated on the timetable — despite it having been told to him repeatedly.

“Would you make sure you get the president the information that a vaccine that you make and start testing in a year is not a vaccine that’s deployable,” Fauci said. “So he’s asking the question, ‘When is it going to be deployable?’ And that is going to be, at the earliest, a year to a year and a half, no matter how fast you go.”

Trump, though, was still skeptical.

“Do you think that’s right?” he asked.

Azar emphasized that treatments but not vaccines could be available sooner, and Trump suddenly seemed more interested in that.

“Well, I think treatment, in many ways, might be more exciting,” Trump said, adding: “So the treatment, I mean, just for the media — so the treatment element of it goes faster than the vaccine element of it, which, in my opinion, in this case, would be better.”

Toward the end of the news conference, Trump was asked about the stock market recovering by about 1,300 points on Monday after a brutal last week.

“They must have heard about this meeting,” Trump said.

The meeting happened after the markets closed, though, and the Dow Jones industrial average on Tuesday was down more than 300 points."

WE HAVE A BLITHERING IDIOT AT THE HELM, SUPPORTED BY A NO-SCIENCE SECOND IN COMMAND, IN A PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS. FUN, RIGHT?