Johns Hopkins 2020

[HopFan16]

I know it's silly to talk about NCAA at-large chances on March 1st when you're 1-3 but if this team has ANY hope of making the tournament this year (outside of a historic 2015-type run in conference play), then they need to beat Syracuse next weekend. There are only six undefeated teams left in D1 and we've played two of them, while Cuse is the third. Loyola not far off. All four of those teams very well could be top 10 teams by season's end. It's even possible a good portion of them are top 5. And we've squandered all those opportunities. After Syracuse the only teams on the schedule guaranteed to be potential "quality wins" are Maryland and Penn State.

Cuse does not have a Sowers, but they are strong in goal and at the faceoff X, have a deep stable of middies who can run by you, and a solid attack with Rehfuss distributing and Scanlan finishing (not really sure what Cook does—so far they haven't needed him to do much of anything). Don't know the status of Nick Mellen but they've fared relatively well on defense without him.

On the bright side—they've beat up on some mediocre faceoff teams in Army (46%), Colgate (46%), Hobart (53%), and Binghamton (29%), so they haven't seen anything like the Blue Jays in that phase of the game yet. This will also be their first game outside the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome all season, and their first trip to Homewood since 2017.

[BlueJaySince1947]

Is there anything positive that can be said about the 2020 Jays...?

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Is there anything positive that can be said about the 2020 Jays...?

They have fewer games left to lose.

[HopFan16]

Is there anything positive that can be said about the 2020 Jays...?

- Faceoffs have been good and we still have Prouty for another year after this and Narewski for two more
- Zinn and Degnon provide reason for optimism about the future of the midfield
- A LOT of young players, in addition to those guys, are getting valuable experience: McManus, Jaronski, Glassmeyer, Murphy, Angelus, Hawley, Lilly
- The uniforms are nice

[jhu7276]

this year really is looking like a horror show...

[ICGrad]

Is there anything positive that can be said about the 2020 Jays...?

Sure. I'll take a shot.

JHU loses big to Syracuse to sit at 1-4. They then have 5 very winnable games on their schedule:

Mt St Mary's
Navy
Delaware
Michigan
Rutgers

Win those 5 games (might help to pray for round 2 of a rotovirus to strike Navy, but even barring that, very winnable stretch), and Hopkins sits at 6-4, with 3 games left:

Penn State
@ OSU
Maryland

Win one of those 3 games, and you finish 7-6 and are all-but guaranteed an NCAA berth and first-round drubbing from the team of your choice. So yeah, the on-field stuff has been brutal, and the Princeton game wasn't pretty (especially the 2nd half), but you have a clear path to the tourney. Once there, who knows? You might get hot.

[Chuckman]

Is there anything positive that can be said about the 2020 Jays...?

The Jays have lead in every game in 2020 at one time.

[jrn19]

Is there anything positive that can be said about the 2020 Jays...?

Sure. I'll take a shot.

JHU loses big to Syracuse to sit at 1-4. They then have 5 very winnable games on their schedule:

Mt St Mary's
Navy
Delaware
Michigan
Rutgers

Win those 5 games (might help to pray for round 2 of a rotovirus to strike Navy, but even barring that, very winnable stretch), and Hopkins sits at 6-4, with 3 games left:

Penn State
@ OSU
Maryland

Win one of those 3 games, and you finish 7-6 and are all-but guaranteed an NCAA berth and first-round drubbing from the team of your choice. So yeah, the on-field stuff has been brutal, and the Princeton game wasn't pretty (especially the 2nd half), but you have a clear path to the tourney. Once there, who knows? You might get hot.

Hopkins is most certainly not all-but guaranteed an NCAA berth with a resume that has wins of Towson, Mt St Mary's, Navy, Delaware, Michigan, Rutgers, and one of OSU/Maryland/Rutgers. There's a not insignificant chance only one of those teams has a winning record. If they beat one of Penn State/OSU/MD again in the B1G Tournament, perhaps, but Hopkins would not make the NCAA Tournament at 7-7 with their 2nd best win being....a .500-ish Rutgers or Delaware.

[Cooter]

Is there anything positive that can be said about the 2020 Jays...?

Sure. I'll take a shot.

JHU loses big to Syracuse to sit at 1-4. They then have 5 very winnable games on their schedule:

Mt St Mary's
Navy
Delaware
Michigan
Rutgers

Win those 5 games (might help to pray for round 2 of a rotovirus to strike Navy, but even barring that, very winnable stretch), and Hopkins sits at 6-4, with 3 games left:

Penn State
@ OSU
Maryland

Win one of those 3 games, and you finish 7-6 and are all-but guaranteed an NCAA berth and first-round drubbing from the team of your choice. So yeah, the on-field stuff has been brutal, and the Princeton game wasn't pretty (especially the 2nd half), but you have a clear path to the tourney. Once there, who knows? You might get hot.

Hopkins is most certainly not all-but guaranteed an NCAA berth with a resume that has wins of Towson, Mt St Mary's, Navy, Delaware, Michigan, Rutgers, and one of OSU/Maryland/Rutgers. There's a not insignificant chance only one of those teams has a winning record. If they beat one of Penn State/OSU/MD again in the B1G Tournament, perhaps, but Hopkins would not make the NCAA Tournament at 7-7 with their 2nd best win being....a .500-ish Rutgers or Delaware.

Hopkins did reduce their SOS some by replacing UVa with Navy on their schedule, which might make it tough to make it in with a 7-7 record this year.
As you note beating Towson, MSM, Navy, Delaware, Michigan and Rutgers would probably not give Hopkins any quality wins. OSU is looking sort of border-line right now - perhaps an 11-20 win. So ICGrad's scenario above looks insufficient to get Hopkins in.
On a positive note, the selection committee doesn't look at scores, and the three teams that have beaten Hopkins are all doing well, and might not be bad losses.

[GBMan]

Hey JHU board - supposing at the end of this season the school and Coach Pietramala come to a parting of the ways. I've heard Hobart's Greg Raymond mentioned as a replacement, but (correct me if I'm wrong) I believe Raymond is more a defensive guy than an offensive innovator - kind of like Coach P.himself. Not sure Raymond would make a huge difference on the recruiting front. Any thoughts about bringing in a pure uptempo offensive guy like UVA assistant Sean Kirwan? Might get some hotshot shooters and dodgers intrigued with JHU again... or is this just crazy talk?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Hey JHU board - supposing at the end of this season the school and Coach Pietramala come to a parting of the ways. I've heard Hobart's Greg Raymond mentioned as a replacement, but (correct me if I'm wrong) I believe Raymond is more a defensive guy than an offensive innovator - kind of like Coach P.himself. Not sure Raymond would make a huge difference on the recruiting front. Any thoughts about bringing in a pure uptempo offensive guy like UVA assistant Sean Kirwan? Might get some hotshot shooters and dodgers intrigued with JHU again... or is this just crazy talk?

Have you seen Hobart’s offense? Kirwan’s offense at UVA is not the offense at Brown. More traditional offense at UVA because they have better players. After watching Hopkins the other day, I actually like some of the younger players. Patience. Epstein being hurt is a big blow. The early recruiting was a disaster. Hopkins is always going to attract players no matter who the coach is.

[kennypowers]

It has been obvious for years just how bad Petro is-even back when the team was somewhat competitive. Recruiting two generational talents at the beginning of his tenure bought him a decade straight of mediocrity-presumably with the assumption that he could eventually recruit his way to another title run. I'm excited to see what somebody else can do with the talent that the university attracts.

[Peter Brown]

Hey JHU board - supposing at the end of this season the school and Coach Pietramala come to a parting of the ways. I've heard Hobart's Greg Raymond mentioned as a replacement, but (correct me if I'm wrong) I believe Raymond is more a defensive guy than an offensive innovator - kind of like Coach P.himself. Not sure Raymond would make a huge difference on the recruiting front. Any thoughts about bringing in a pure uptempo offensive guy like UVA assistant Sean Kirwan? Might get some hotshot shooters and dodgers intrigued with JHU again... or is this just crazy talk?

Have you seen Hobart’s offense? Kirwan’s offense at UVA is not the offense at Brown. More traditional offense at UVA because they have better players. After watching Hopkins the other day, I actually like some of the younger players. Patience. Epstein being hurt is a big blow. The early recruiting was a disaster. Hopkins is always going to attract players no matter who the coach is.

I agree with that TLD.

Every coach ultimately is replaced, and it's always better if they leave on their own accord before they're asked to leave. This program could use new leadership.

Question I have is: is it better to announce a change now mid-season (the switch to take effect after the season), so a new named coach can solidify recruit commitments and look for his own as well? Or is that brutal to the current team?

[MDlaxfan76]

Brutal to current team; almost unheard of in lax.
If it's going to happen, look for it in first couple of weeks after whenever Hop season ends.
And that's a big IF.

I'm not so sure a rebound won't happen.
Will that be enough to renew hope that the next couple of years will show marked improvement?
I dunno, but I DO know that there's a sense that they have two excellent incoming classes.

I know, I know, we've heard that before.
I'm just reporting what I've heard away from these boards.

There was a moment a couple of years ago when it looked like Petro might, for both personal and professional reasons, bump to another program with potential, ala the Tierney move. Not sure that's in the cards right now, but that would be the sort of appropriate situation, I think.

[HopFan16]

Question I have is: is it better to announce a change now mid-season (the switch to take effect after the season), so a new named coach can solidify recruit commitments and look for his own as well? Or is that brutal to the current team?

There is zero chance a change is announced during the season. Zero. Nil. Nada.

If one happens after the season, there will probably be a few decommits. It happens. While unfortunate, it's really not something that should factor into the decision. If you make a change, it's with the long-term in mind. Not to mention, maybe some of the recruits are excited by a new staff. Hopkins would still be Hopkins—many of the things that attracted them to the school in the first place would not change.

I am just one person and my opinion does not matter but for what it's worth, as an alum and fan I personally don't have a whole lot of interest in Kirwan.

Raymond may not be an offensive guru but he has recruited some exceptionally talented offensive players to Hobart. Jason Knox and Eric Holden could be playing for any team in the country.

[Peter Brown]

Brutal to current team; almost unheard of in lax.
If it's going to happen, look for it in first couple of weeks after whenever Hop season ends.
And that's a big IF.

I'm not so sure a rebound won't happen.
Will that be enough to renew hope that the next couple of years will show marked improvement?
I dunno, but I DO know that there's a sense that they have two excellent incoming classes.

I know, I know, we've heard that before.
I'm just reporting what I've heard away from these boards.

There was a moment a couple of years ago when it looked like Petro might, for both personal and professional reasons, bump to another program with potential, ala the Tierney move. Not sure that's in the cards right now, but that would be the sort of appropriate situation, I think.

Thanks.

I'm trying to put myself in the players' shoes and questioning how I'd feel, and I just don't know. I sense a change is coming there, and assuming that is the case, whoever gets that role would walk into an enviable position: all of those resources and nowhere to go but up.

[Wheels]

Begging to think that Epstein has more than just an MCL sprain. His lack of forward burst is apparent.

[DA/PU]

Everything I know about Epstein is that he's a true competitor (soph captain, weight room junkie, playing hurt), but has there been any thought of him redshirting? He probably wants to play for his team and coach, but I hate to think he will spend 1 of his 4 seasons on one leg. Love his game and competitiveness so if he keeps playing, I hope he gets right.

[HopFan16]

Begging to think that Epstein has more than just an MCL sprain. His lack of forward burst is apparent.

Doubt it. Even a low-grade MCL sprain can be very painful and take months to fully recover. A grade 2 or 3 sprain would completely explain the lack of burst—there doesn't need to be anything else going on. Plus the bulky brace on his leg doesn't exactly make it easier to run. Doctors cleared him to play. That would not be the case if there was more significant damage (especially to the ACL).

Everything I know about Epstein is that he's a true competitor (soph captain, weight room junkie, playing hurt), but has there been any thought of him redshirting? He probably wants to play for his team and coach, but I hate to think he will spend 1 of his 4 seasons on one leg. Love his game and competitiveness so if he keeps playing, I hope he gets right.

He's already played in three games—one more would put him over the 30% threshold of total games (assuming no postseason contests) and disqualify him from a medical redshirt. Even if he didn't play another game this season I still don't think the NCAA would grant him a waiver. It's not like he got injured and then was forced to miss the remainder of the season. They've already tried putting him back in the lineup. That doesn't really help the argument. "He got hurt but we still played him for several games and THEN decided we don't want him to play anymore." Not sure that reasoning will hold up in the Court of NCAA Redshirts, your honor.

[Wheels]

Doubt it. Even a low-grade MCL sprain can be very painful and take months to fully recover. A grade 2 or 3 sprain would completely explain the lack of burst—there doesn't need to be anything else going on. Plus the bulky brace on his leg doesn't exactly make it easier to run. Doctors cleared him to play. That would not be the case if there was more significant damage (especially to the ACL).

Not thinking ACL because why would he even play with a partially torn ACL? Shut him down and give him the year to rehab in that case. He's going on, what, 6 weeks now that we know of with the sprain? If that's an MCL, they should have waited and just fully let him heal instead of trying to play through it (any injury to the knee compromises the integrity of the entire joint). I wouldn't be surprised if he had some cartilage issues or the MCL/LCL combo. Either way, letting him play like this, cleared or not, was short sighted in a big way. What was gained by letting him play these last 3 games? No burst. Can't change direction. Probably messes with his head. I legit feel bad for the kid.