Why go back 3 seasons? High Point beak Duke and UVA last year; I mean, they quickly lost, but were sitting at 4-0 and looking like world beaters. But I don't think anyone really thought they were the best team in the country.Matnum PI wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:38 pmThis is a good example. When Air Force beat Duke very early in the season, in theory, this shouldn't be an upset. We all knew it was and a couple weeks later, this has been proven true. But immediately after the game, in theory, it wasn't an upset because... Maybe Air Force is truly a better team than Duke. That's why I want to get rid of the preseason poll ASAP. Because the Air Forces (bad example)... Because the Villanovas of the world shouldn't have to do more than a Maryland, Notre Dame, or otherwise to get a top spot.
Different example, 3 years ago, maybe 4, UVM was winning games against nothing teams. I think at some point they had a pretty good W but even that w was against a B+ team. But, for some reason, the Lacrosse World was sold on UVM. And... I just did not understand it. It was partly based on their AA attackman but... It just seemed to be based much more on marketing and pr than on reality. Bottomline, that UVM team was great for UVM but... This was no where near the team the Lacrosse world was presenting them as. Which is at the heart of my issue with this stuff. (And it's not just with lacrosse. This is everywhere.) The disparity between image and reality and how the former so often wins.
So for me, part if it is trying not to overvalue games played in February, often in crappy conditions and by some teams who have had very little chance to practice outdoors - but having nothing else to go on, yeah, you fall back on your preconceptions going into the year. Villanova's win over Maryland was a nice win, but it was over a Maryland team that seemed to be struggling with consistency early in the season (who isn't). Maybe I undervalued that win a bit...sure. But maybe the computer is undervaluing their losses a little, too?