FanLax Forum Poll

[ohmilax34]

Sad that a mere 8 hours after I entered my picks, I can't even remember the exact order. Top 5 for me was PSU, UVA, MD, Penn, and (I think) Syracuse.

PSU...best offense in the country. They're strong up the middle...very good goalie, FOGO, and attack unit. Losing Sabia at close hurts.
UVA...explosive athletes everywhere, deep offense, good FOGO. Not sold on their D. Think losing Conrad will be bigger than expected.
MD...second best offense in the nation, deep rope unit. Questions on D and breaking in new goalie. 50% at FOGO likely means Memorial Day Weekend.
Penn...big, strong, athletic, and deep. Gallagher is elite. Burkinshaw good replacement in goal. Will miss Mathias but there's good depth.
Cuse...best 1st midfield in the nation. Strong up the middle: Goalie, FOGO, and rope unit. Very good defense. Questions about attack.

I had some mix of Notre Dame, Yale, Duke, Ohio St, and Denver (that might be the exact order but Yale and Duke could be flipped)

Notre Dame...you know what you'll get in goal and on defense. Good first midfield line. Good attack. Depth and scoring are always an issue.
Yale...losing entire 1st midfield line will hurt. Brandau is the only attack who can create on his own. Ierlan covers a lot of warts. D fell off last year.
Duke...now with Robertson reportedly out, Duke has fewer established offensive players. Lots of replacement in the midfield and D. Average goalie.
OSU...big, strong, physical team. Great up the middle. Leclaire can dominate when he wants. Offense struggles at times due to lack of quickness.
DU...actually think they might be in for a fall off. Offense hasn't adapted to shot clock well. Few initiators on offense. Goalie always shaky.

After Top 10, I can't even remember. UNC was in the 11-15 range, as was Cornell, and Hopkins. I think I might have had Delaware up in that range.

Until proven otherwise, UNC is always my bet for "team results that don't match their talent" pick. Cornell has issue at FOGO and close D. JHU has Epstein and then a big who-else-burger. Deluca for Delaware could steal several wins all by himself. If they can get some scoring (they have a lot coming back), they can displace UMass and Towson atop the CAA. High Point might have been #15 for me. Lots back on offense. All D are multi-year starters. Good FOGO. Replacing Troutner might be impossible.

I like Hobart a lot. Fun offense. Scoring everywhere on the field. Princeton is a sleeper pick for me. If they can get anything at the FOGO, Sowers will destroy souls. Think they'll qualify for the Ivy Tournament and maybe move ahead of Cornell. Georgetown knows how to win, and I love Warne's madness. Villanova has great pieces but seems to fade late. I like Navy better than Army (too many losses on defense).

Most importantly...the season is here! Have fun, people.

If Cuse's 2nd middies are healthy they will be the best 2nd midfield in the country. I have questions about the defense and scoring in crunch time.

[laxpere]

Since we had a partial wknd of games & some voted before & others after, if it isn't a ton of work, is it possible to show the "after" group by itself? Be curious of the post-wknd consensus in comparison to Quint & the Coaches poll.

I"m gonna guess the post-weekend polls are the five or so which have Duke out of the top ten and in most cases also include Air Force, at least that is my CSI-Fanlax smart bet.

Also, in the future, I won't share the Polls prematurely (Sorry, calourie, laxpere, and jersey) but... I'm playing around and want to keep you all in the loop.

Full disclosure so you see before and after for me. Here is the post from last week. As the next post highlights, I am looking each team based on actual performance up to that point and not predicting where teams will rank at the end of the season. Early season rankings are always a bit tougher, right?
I made changes on Monday and resubmitted my poll based on last weekend's results. Maryland looked strong against a ranked opponent. UNC played well against a weak opponent and Air Force looked too good to not add them. Duke remains a top 20 team at this point despite Robertson's injury and the loss to Air Force because I think that they would beat the teams ranked below them. They will probably move up over the rest of the season.
Granted a scrimmage, but Delaware blew out Denver at Barton. That result makes the Air Force - Denver game will be a really interesting one.
Post poll: OSU looked really strong, but will face tougher competition over the next several games.

[Matnum PI]

Someone sent me this e-mail. I hope s/he doesn't mind me posting it:

Opinions.......based upon opinions ???

without "guidelines",,,,imho.... it makes for an uninteresting poll.

keeping "Danno & Duke" in the top 20.....TODAY.......February 5th........is based on what?

. Danno & Duke don't care about early season fluke losses? So, you are ranking teams on where you think they will be in mid-May? Or clinging to their pre-seasons ranking, refusing to move teams, unless they are from a non-ACC/B1G conference, then that 10-1 team will get bounced quicker than a redling realtor, upon that first loss. Maybe I am wrong, but if I am grading, judging, reviewing, etc.........I would like to know what we are basing our opinions on. The rules.

Even the Button banana eating contest (ft. Lauderdale) spring break had ONE rule......the banana HAS to consumed. How you go about it is up to you...............

If you don't have criteria, perhaps make that known. A fun, disclaimer, if you will. Otherwize Hopkins "fans" will dominate. At the very least, make them create a fun bio. Who you root for, etc. I really, really want to know why Princeton, once again, gets love ? Not even a top 4 team in it's own league.......but.........one player doth not a team make. Or else, we would rank Sacred Heart (solely b.c of Tuttle )

Enjoy the spring

"Opinions.......based upon opinions ???"... Yes. Admin's is based on a computer ranking. but for everyone else, what else should they be based on?

"keeping "Danno & Duke" in the top 20.....TODAY.......February 5th........is based on what?"... You need to say this in the forum. Especially after the next Poll. the Computer ranking has them at #18 and that's only because 24 teams have played and... The Rankings are updated after every game. http://app.fanlax.com/category/ranking/44/2020 To be fair, the majority of post-ers did their poll before Duke's loss to AF.

"So, you are ranking teams on where you think they will be in mid-May?"... No. Where they are today. Or, last week because that's when most of the post-ers made their polls. I think (Post-ers, feel free to chime in) the Polls are based on where each team is at that moment (on Monday night) throughout the season.

[Matnum PI]

[Wheels]

When is the next poll due? After this weekend's coming games?

[Matnum PI]

Yes. Midnight on Monday.

[Matnum PI]

[RumorMill]

Opinions.......based upon opinions ???

without "guidelines",,,,imho.... it makes for an uninteresting poll.

keeping "Danno & Duke" in the top 20.....TODAY.......February 5th........is based on what?

. Danno & Duke don't care about early season fluke losses? So, you are ranking teams on where you think they will be in mid-May? Or clinging to their pre-seasons ranking, refusing to move teams, unless they are from a non-ACC/B1G conference, then that 10-1 team will get bounced quicker than a redling realtor, upon that first loss. Maybe I am wrong, but if I am grading, judging, reviewing, etc.........I would like to know what we are basing our opinions on. The rules.

Even the Button banana eating contest (ft. Lauderdale) spring break had ONE rule......the banana HAS to consumed. How you go about it is up to you...............

If you don't have criteria, perhaps make that known. A fun, disclaimer, if you will. Otherwize Hopkins "fans" will dominate. At the very least, make them create a fun bio. Who you root for, etc. I really, really want to know why Princeton, once again, gets love ? Not even a top 4 team in it's own league.......but.........one player doth not a team make. Or else, we would rank Sacred Heart (solely b.c of Tuttle )

Enjoy the spring

I appreciate the time and effort all those who are doing poles are putting in.

I would further respond to the above, that preseason and week 1, 2, poles are based on last season's performance and opinions on how returners are going to perform, plus any off season additions, changes, etc. Not where they will potentially be in May. I'm sure most will certainly take into consideration how each team performed in their first game (maybe even scrimmages if there's enough info). But if early season poles were based purely on results from "today" you would have 14 teams tied for 1st and 14 teams tied for 28th (or 2nd depending on your perspective).

[molo]

I did my poll before Duke lost to Air Force. The next poll will reflect that loss.

[Matnum PI]

But if early season poles were based purely on results from "today" you would have 14 teams tied for 1st and 14 teams tied for 28th (or 2nd depending on your perspective).

Our Computer Poll is based on results from today and not only looks at Win Percentage (which would make 14 teams #1 and 14 teams #28) but also looks at the Quality of the opponent in that W or L. As a consequence, our Poll's #1 is currently Air Force. Which I fully understand is not where a thinking person would want to plop down their money in Las Vegas for their Memorial Day bet but... Today, they've done the most and deserve to be rewarded accordingly. Pure meritocracy. Which will bother some. And that's OK. Especially since we have multiple polls.

PS Maryland is #2 and Providence is #3. MD and Providence had good wins.

[Matnum PI]

I did my poll before Duke lost to Air Force. The next poll will reflect that loss.

The first poll, like all preseason polls, was a throw away. I guess it'll be fun to see who picked the actual 2020 National Champion because, in theory, that's what a preseason poll is. A season prediction. or just a starting point. Either way, a poll without games is not overly meaningful. Now that teams have played, polls are more meaningful.

[Wheels]

Yes. Midnight on Monday.

I did my poll before Duke lost to Air Force. The next poll will reflect that loss.

I did the same thing, even knowing the history between Duke and AFA. I'm going to wait until Sunday this time before making any rankings.

[ICGrad]

But if early season poles were based purely on results from "today" you would have 14 teams tied for 1st and 14 teams tied for 28th (or 2nd depending on your perspective).

Our Computer Poll is based on results from today and not only looks at Win Percentage (which would make 14 teams #1 and 14 teams #28) but also looks at the Quality of the opponent in that W or L. As a consequence, our Poll's #1 is currently Air Force. Which I fully understand is not where a thinking person would want to plop down their money in Las Vegas for their Memorial Day bet but... Today, they've done the most and deserve to be rewarded accordingly. Pure meritocracy. Which will bother some. And that's OK. Especially since we have multiple polls.

PS Maryland is #2 and Providence is #3. MD and Providence had good wins.

So it's based on results from today, but also on results from last year and/or expectations of this season. Else why would a win over an 0-1 Duke team count any more than a win over an 0-1 High Point team? In fact, Maryland's win should count more, given the significantly wider margin of victory over a team that, based on this season's records only, is statistically the equal of the Duke team Air Force beat.

I think that this is the concern some people have with such computer models: that there is an initial bias built in, and that that bias remains for the life of the poll (i.e., the season).

[Matnum PI]

So it's based on results from today, but also on results from last year and/or expectations of this season. Else why would a win over an 0-1 Duke team count any more than a win over an 0-1 High Point team?... I think that this is the concern some people have with such computer models: that there is an initial bias built in, and that that bias remains for the life of the poll (i.e., the season).

Correct. In the very early going of the season, there's an initial bias. But I'd call this a fair bias. i.e. The bias is based on the performance of the teams in 2019. But, more importantly, as the season progresses, 2019 is all but 100% erased. And relatively quickly.

[admin]

FanLax Forum Poll

The FanLax Forum Polls are due every Monday before midnight. The Poll-er Polls and the aggregated Forum Poll will be posted on Tuesday.

Poll-ers: Your job is to present the best teams. (Not "your favorite", "the best".) The criteria you use to define "the best" is up to you. Whatever criteria you deem appropriate in deciding which teams are the best. With this said, if you choose to have Albany as the #1 team in the nation, please explain your reasoning. Explanations for the ranking of every team in your poll is appreciated. But especially appreciated for the outliers. Lastly, the Poll-er Polls are interesting because they're based on your opinion. So please be true to you. i.e. Don't lower a team's ranking because of a fear of ridicule or otherwise. Just be true to you... and explain your reasoning.

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[Wheels]

New poll rankings for me. Disclaimer, teams that have played games have jumped teams that haven't. Gotta go on what I've seen/read about teams when the results matter.

PSU, UVA, and Maryland stay 1-3. The Terps were shaky but got a win on the road against the SoCon preseason pick.
Syracuse and OSU move up to 4 and 5. Cuse was impressive against Colgate. OSU has blasted 2 opponents.
UNC, JHU, and Penn are 6, 7, 8. Hard to discount UNC's offense now with Gray running things at X. JHU had a big win against Towson w/out Epstein.
ND, Yale, and Denver go 9, 10, 11. I said my preference was for teams that have played, and DU had a big win against AFA. I'm still not sold on their O.
Delaware, Georgetown, and Duke go 12, 13, 14. Delaware showed offense today, as did Gtown. Duke rebounded from bad AFA loss.
Army, Navy, AFA. 15, 16, 17. Army pummeled UMass. Wow. Navy's D looked good. Have to credit AFA for the win @Duke.
Richmond, Rutgers, Hobart. 18, 19, 20. UR gave away a win against the Terps. Rutgers has offense, so does Hobart.
Lehigh, Cornell, Princeton, Providence, and Loyola round it out for me. Lehigh had a nice win over a solid UU team. Cornell and Princeton will rise once they play. Providence has legit D. Loyola despite the loss of so many pieces gave UVA a strong game.

I'm sure I'll piss off the fans of teams that haven't played, but I wanted to base my rankings on actual results. It's fluid! Things will change starting next week!

[calourie]

My list is a counterpoint to Wheel's. Didn't punish teams that didn't play:

1. UVA 1-0 despite a sketchy 2nd half vs. Loyola, still the champs until taken down on the field.
2. Penn St. 2-0 impressive showing against what looks like a decent Villanova team
3. Yale 0-0 not playing doesn't change my opinion of them
4. Maryland 2-0 outplayed by Richmond for 3 quarters, but showed some real mettle coming back in the 4th
5. Penn 0-0 ditto my Yale comment
6. Syracuse 1-0 showed some strong offensive power against a Colgate team that put on a much better showing than they did vs. UNC
7. Notre Dame 0-0 no game, no harm
8. Ohio State 2-0 whipped Detroit mercy and handled BU comfortably
9. UNC 2-0 Colgate helped them look great, cruise control win over Mercer
10. Johns Hopkins 1-0 nice win over Towson without Epstein
11. Cornell 0-0 we will know more next week
12. Denver 1-0 took a while but overcame a slow start to take down an Air Force team that was flying high after knocking off Duke
13. Army 1-0 convincing takedown of what many were projecting to be a good UMass team
14. Georgetown 1-0 trounced Lafayette
15. Rutgers 2-0 two nice efforts against Quinnipiac and St. Johns
16. Duke 1-1 good bounce back win against a High Point team that hasn't found its' mojo yet
17. Michigan 1-0 impressed with the depth of scoring in a nice win over Cleveland State
18. Lehigh 1-0 good win over Utah. Nice to see Petit back
19. Delaware 1-0 recovered from a slow start to cruise to a win over MSM
20. Loyola 0-1 showed me more than I expected of them turning a 9-3 halftime deficit against UVA into a competitive game

I also considered 1-0 Navy, 1-0 Hobart and 2-0 Providence. I will be expanding my list to top 25 after next weekend, once everyone has gotten a game under their belts.

[DocBarrister]

Nice analyses, Wheels and calourie. Thanks.

DocBarrister

[a fan]

This Forum is really shaping up, is it not?

Matnum Pi, you should be proud. And the rest of us should be grateful.

Thank you for preserving what was built by our little community...

[10stone5]

1,000 upvotes ^^^