FanLax Forum Poll

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Lax Fi and I did a breakdown of the LaxPower poll using several years data. We compared the results to other polls and looked at individual performances.

We found on balance the polls did a pretty good job. We found a few pollsters had biases in favor of certain teams but what surprised us most was the anti team biases that a few pollsters exhibited. They were stronger than the pro teams biases.

The results we got were revealing at the micro level but at the macro level the poll held up pretty well.

Ok, show your homework.

[Matnum PI]

I might be in. Should be a Top 25.

Might or In?

[OCanada]

Seriously? That was done a very long time ago. It was participant dependent and the participants are now different for the most part. I am not an obsessive compulsive, don’t retain a pile of old lax stuff and in fact have virtually none save the stuff from the tournament work I did and very little of that.

[admin]

Then do 25...

[OCanada]

I got a PM saying PM was on hold and could not open it

[admin]

It was the password. I'll send it to you via e-mail.

[molo]

Got mine in and am awaiting the criticism.

[Matnum PI]

11 of our (currently) 16 Preseason Polls have been submitted and I don't think that I should share the Poll info until all the Polls are in but... Whatever. I can't help myself. Once the season starts, I'll be more disciplined about not letting people peak behind the curtain. On Tuesday night, I'll share the Individual Polls as well as a more complete FORUM POLL (which is an amalgamation of all the Individual Polls) but, for now, this is what the FORUM POLL looks like:

1 Penn St.
2 Virginia
3 Yale
4 Maryland
5 Duke
6 Syracuse
7 Penn
8 Notre Dame
9 Ohio St.
10 Cornell
11 North Carolina
12 Denver
13 Johns Hopkins
14 Loyola Maryland
15 Towson
16 Georgetown
17 Army West Point
18 Massachusetts
19 Princeton
20 High Point
21 Delaware
22 Lehigh
23 Rutgers
24 Villanova
25 Richmond
Dartmouth
Navy
Hobart
Marist
Michigan
Air Force

Kind of interesting.

[Henpecked]

The person who put Dartmouth on this list should have their voting privileges revoked immediately.

[The Orfling]

Here's my list (submitted) with my rationale. My biases -- I'm most familiar with the Ivy League; I give a fair amount of weight to head coaches; I give a major amount of weight to FOGO play in the shot clock era. (When I say "weight" -- there's no algorithm, I'm a humanities type!). I'm also doing these as a snapshot in time, not as a prediction of where I think everyone will finish -- for examples, the Ivies tend to start a little slower because of the Feb. 1 practice start date and my rankings for this week reflect that.

1. UVA Putting the champs at #1 until they are knocked off, but it's more than that -- this is a hugely talented team. I see their regular season as like Yale's 2019 model -- a dominant offense (top 4 scorers returning) and face-off man (LaSalla is a star) will mean UVA will knock out teams before they can realize there may be some defensive weaknesses.

2 Penn St. Best attack unit in the country, bar none -- will shock and awe teams and win high-scoring games, and face-off man Gerard Arceri will get his offense the ball to do the damage. Grant Ament needs about 75 assists to break the career assist record -- count on him getting them (and maybe the Tewaaraton to boot).

3 Maryland "ABOT" -- "Always Bet On Tillman." John Tillman has figured it out -- recruiting, team culture, in-game adjustments. He's got Bernhardt and Wisnauskas, an exceptional impact ssdm in Puglise, and he worked the transfer portal like the guy in your fantasy football league who always wins the league because of his waiver wire pickups. Count on Chris Brandau in goal to emerge as a star.

4 Duke It might be a year to early to have Duke in the top 5, but they've got an experienced defense led by the great JT Giles-Harris and some elite offensive options. The Blue Devil achilles heel may be at face-off, where the returner, Smyth, was at 52% last year. A great defense and goalie can blunt the impact of the face-offs, but in a close game not having a more dominant FOGO could be the difference. Still, coming out of the gate a team with Danowski at the helm gets the nod.

5 Syracuse The Orange are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball as evidenced by Syracuse players getting a ton of love on pre-season All-American lists. They finished strong down the stretch in 2019 and added a huge transfer in Chase Scanlan. Maybe I've been listening to too much Carc but I'm starting 'Cuse off in the top 5.

6 UPenn I watched the Quakers beat Yale 2 out of 3 last year, so I may be over-rating the Quakers based on that, but despite the loss to graduation of some huge performers (Mathias on attack, Dunn in the midfield, Junkin in goal), the Quakers should still be an elite team. Monster midfielder Sam Handley, slick scorer Adam Goldner on attack, and Mark Evanchik on defense are pillars, but the team MVP may well be the second-most-talked-about FOGO transfer of 2019: Kyle Gallagher. And don't be surprised if another transfer has a major impact for Penn this year: former UVA goalie Patrick Burkinshaw.

7 Yale The great TD Ierlan is enough to get the Elis into the top 10 -- but with the loss of the 1st midfield line, two great assistants who got head coaching gigs, and question marks about a defense that finished #69 in 2019, will they be able to stay there? I've got a reserved seat on the Shay Train and Yale has a brilliant attack unit in Morrill-Gaudet-Brandau, so I say yes . . . but there are a lot of questions that Yale will need to answer on the defensive side of the ball this season.

8 Notre Dame Debated over placing ND in the top 5, but the hole left by the departed Gerry Byrne -- always on everybody's lists as top national assistant -- caused me to bump them down to #8. Costabile is as good a midfielder there is in the country, and ND should have a stout close D, but will the rest of the offense be able to score enough goals in bunches when they need them?

9 Ohio State With difference-makers Tre LeClaire on attack, Ryan Terefenko at midfield, and Justin Inacio at FOGO, as well as a veteran line-up across the board, it feels like Ohio State is poised to make some noise in 2020. Coach Nick Myers can also look forward to a trio of talented first-year players from Calvert Hall (the Mitchell twins at midfield and D Jacob Snyder) who are on his U19 team and who might make an impact for the Buckeyes.

10 Denver With Ethan Walker, shouldn't Denver have had better than the #24 scoring offense in 2019? Yes, they played great defense -- but is that enough in the shot clock world? Top 10 feels a little high but Bill Tierney's rep and Ethan Walker's talent give them the final spot in my top 10.

11 Loyola What will life look like after the graduation of Pat Spencer and Jacob Stover (oh, and throw in the transferred Chase Scanlan)? Hard to say, but Loyola Coach Charlie Toomey tends to find players overlooked by others and give a polish to some of those uncut gems.

12 Cornell It's hard to think that a team with Jeff Teat might have sleeper upside, but it's possible people (including me) are not giving the Big Red enough love after they did not make the NCAA tournament in 2019. They've got additional difference-makers beyond Teat on both attack (starting with Donville at midfield) and defense (Salvatore at LSM and Chayse Ierlan in goal). The big on-field question mark is at FOGO (although if everyone can stay healthy there seem to be some good options) and, at least for me, the jury is still out on the head coach -- he's a great recruiter and seems to be a great motivator, but can he make adjustments on game day?

13 UNC With Chris Gray joining the Tarheels as one of the highest impact transfers of recent years, #13 might be a little low for UNC. But with a top returning FOGO only at 50%, for right now UNC is top 15 with upside.

14 Hopkins I just don't know about the Hop . . . Joey Epstein is outstanding, but who else is going to step up as a dominant difference maker this spring? Seems like Cole Williams and Evan Zinn have the talent on offense, but how about on the defensive side of the ball? Maybe one of your top 2019 close D men stepping away after fallball means you are loaded at the position with better options, but at least for now it seems a little concerning. Can't overlook Hopkins but for now am starting them just inside the top 15. I have a sneaky fondness for the "To Win" song so would be happy to be proved wrong and see the Bluejays muscle into the top 10.

15 Lehigh I was close to giving the nod to Army West Point for the second Patriot League spot in my top 15, but couldn't overlook Army's losses of three stars: Nate Jones, Johnny Surdick, and AJ Barretto in goal. So, in keeping with my, "when in doubt, how's the FOGO" philosophy, I'm starting off with the Mountain Hawks on the strength of a great team defense and outstanding FOGO Conor Gaffney.

#16 if I went that far: Towson

[The Orfling]

The person who put Dartmouth on this list should have their voting privileges revoked immediately.

Maybe it was a mis-hit on the dropdown box? I had to proofread my list carefully. On the other hand, Dartmouth folks are loyal -- Dartmouth had something like 5 votes on the Ivy League 2020 champs poll.

[molo]

I think we have nine of the same teams in the top ten, and of course, the same team ranked first.

[Cooter]

4 Duke It might be a year to early to have Duke in the top 5, but they've got an experienced defense led by the great JT Giles-Harris and some elite offensive options. The Blue Devil achilles heel may be at face-off, where the returner, Smyth, was at 52% last year. A great defense and goalie can blunt the impact of the face-offs, but in a close game not having a more dominant FOGO could be the difference. Still, coming out of the gate a team with Danowski at the helm gets the nod.

I don't think I would rank Duke so high. Danowski might get them there but I would probably start them more around #8

Duke did lose some players from the defense: Cade Van Raaphorst, Peter Welch and Jack Fowler, so I am not sure the defense is that experienced. They do bring in a couple of top recruits: Brower and Frisoli.
I have doubts about the offense being that outstanding. They probably need a major impact freshman season from Dyson Williams to be really good.
Face-offs look sort of average with Smyth, and Uppgren in goal is solid but not great.

Montgomery is very good.

[Typical Lax Dad]

4 Duke It might be a year to early to have Duke in the top 5, but they've got an experienced defense led by the great JT Giles-Harris and some elite offensive options. The Blue Devil achilles heel may be at face-off, where the returner, Smyth, was at 52% last year. A great defense and goalie can blunt the impact of the face-offs, but in a close game not having a more dominant FOGO could be the difference. Still, coming out of the gate a team with Danowski at the helm gets the nod.

I don't think I would rank Duke so high. Danowski might get them there but I would probably start them more around #8

Duke did lose some players from the defense: Cade Van Raaphorst, Peter Welch and Jack Fowler, so I am not sure the defense is that experienced. They do bring in a couple of top recruits: Brower and Frisoli.
I have doubts about the offense being that outstanding. They probably need a major impact freshman season from Dyson Williams to be really good.
Face-offs look sort of average with Smyth, and Uppgren in goal is solid but not great.

Montgomery is very good.

Duke was up 2 with the ball and about 1 min left and an unbelievable turnover under low pressure cost them the semi final game. Pretty much the whole team is back. Brad moved on but a lot is back.

[The Orfling]

4 Duke It might be a year to early to have Duke in the top 5, but they've got an experienced defense led by the great JT Giles-Harris and some elite offensive options. The Blue Devil achilles heel may be at face-off, where the returner, Smyth, was at 52% last year. A great defense and goalie can blunt the impact of the face-offs, but in a close game not having a more dominant FOGO could be the difference. Still, coming out of the gate a team with Danowski at the helm gets the nod.

I don't think I would rank Duke so high. Danowski might get them there but I would probably start them more around #8

Duke did lose some players from the defense: Cade Van Raaphorst, Peter Welch and Jack Fowler, so I am not sure the defense is that experienced. They do bring in a couple of top recruits: Brower and Frisoli.
I have doubts about the offense being that outstanding. They probably need a major impact freshman season from Dyson Williams to be really good.
Face-offs look sort of average with Smyth, and Uppgren in goal is solid but not great.

Montgomery is very good.

All good points. I went back and forth on picks 4-8.

[faircornell]

It's great to see such in depth, well informed commentary. Thank you.

[Cooter]

Duke also lost HM AA ssdm Pendergast.

Duke was picked 4th in the ACC by the ACC coaches.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Duke also lost HM AA ssdm Pendergast.

Duke was picked 4th in the ACC by the ACC coaches.

I know. I don’t see it. Syracuse may win that conference this year.

[Wheels]

Sad that a mere 8 hours after I entered my picks, I can't even remember the exact order. Top 5 for me was PSU, UVA, MD, Penn, and (I think) Syracuse.

PSU...best offense in the country. They're strong up the middle...very good goalie, FOGO, and attack unit. Losing Sabia at close hurts.
UVA...explosive athletes everywhere, deep offense, good FOGO. Not sold on their D. Think losing Conrad will be bigger than expected.
MD...second best offense in the nation, deep rope unit. Questions on D and breaking in new goalie. 50% at FOGO likely means Memorial Day Weekend.
Penn...big, strong, athletic, and deep. Gallagher is elite. Burkinshaw good replacement in goal. Will miss Mathias but there's good depth.
Cuse...best 1st midfield in the nation. Strong up the middle: Goalie, FOGO, and rope unit. Very good defense. Questions about attack.

I had some mix of Notre Dame, Yale, Duke, Ohio St, and Denver (that might be the exact order but Yale and Duke could be flipped)

Notre Dame...you know what you'll get in goal and on defense. Good first midfield line. Good attack. Depth and scoring are always an issue.
Yale...losing entire 1st midfield line will hurt. Brandau is the only attack who can create on his own. Ierlan covers a lot of warts. D fell off last year.
Duke...now with Robertson reportedly out, Duke has fewer established offensive players. Lots of replacement in the midfield and D. Average goalie.
OSU...big, strong, physical team. Great up the middle. Leclaire can dominate when he wants. Offense struggles at times due to lack of quickness.
DU...actually think they might be in for a fall off. Offense hasn't adapted to shot clock well. Few initiators on offense. Goalie always shaky.

After Top 10, I can't even remember. UNC was in the 11-15 range, as was Cornell, and Hopkins. I think I might have had Delaware up in that range.

Until proven otherwise, UNC is always my bet for "team results that don't match their talent" pick. Cornell has issue at FOGO and close D. JHU has Epstein and then a big who-else-burger. Deluca for Delaware could steal several wins all by himself. If they can get some scoring (they have a lot coming back), they can displace UMass and Towson atop the CAA. High Point might have been #15 for me. Lots back on offense. All D are multi-year starters. Good FOGO. Replacing Troutner might be impossible.

I like Hobart a lot. Fun offense. Scoring everywhere on the field. Princeton is a sleeper pick for me. If they can get anything at the FOGO, Sowers will destroy souls. Think they'll qualify for the Ivy Tournament and maybe move ahead of Cornell. Georgetown knows how to win, and I love Warne's madness. Villanova has great pieces but seems to fade late. I like Navy better than Army (too many losses on defense).

Most importantly...the season is here! Have fun, people.

[DocBarrister]

I might be in. Should be a Top 25.

Might or In?

He’s in.

DocBarrister (Wombat’s Conscience)