Picks and Predictions

[wlaxnut]

And who would you put above Denver or UVA?

My top 10 would be:

- Maryland
- UNC
- Syracuse
- Northwestern
- Notre Dame
- Boston College
- Princeton
- Loyola
- Michigan
- Penn

Virginia seems so predictable each year. They play an RPI heavy schedule and then cruise into The Tournament on that basis, regardless of their regular season record. Then they're either 1 & done, or win 1 & done. Syracuse does the same thing but at least they made it to the quarters last year. And Denver? Eh. I don't think they can really compete with the elite.

Don’t disagree with you often, but can’t agree on UVA. First they were quarterfinalists a year ago and beat Princeton and Loyola reasonably. Don’t believe the hype on UM. Great coach but lost some talent. Until they playa heavy schedule can’t believe. Listen I’d get if you said no final four, but they finished last year final eight. I am open minded about Denver and would certainly put Loyola and Princeton ahead (even though Princeton lost 60% of scoring and 90% of draws. Heck I’d throw Navy ahead of Denver because they seem to be bringing all of a pretty good team back.

I agree--the Hoos had some good wins, and they lost some one goal games to some tough opponents. But I can't take them seriously until they win a really big game--until they beat a team that they aren't supposed to beat--the way Notre Dame beat UNC last year, or the way JMU knocked off UNC (2x) and BC the year before.

You're probably right on Michigan. They play a slightly easier schedule this year than last. They have to outwork their opponents for the most part to win. They don't have a bevy of naturally gifted scorers. They lost a huge defender in Madison Richardson. Pendino was their top goal scorer but I don't think she's a huge loss. A whopping 17 of her 41 goals were from free position. We'll see who develops during the year. Yeah--Navy always seems to field a competitive team.

[Bart]

And who would you put above Denver or UVA?

My top 10 would be:

- Maryland
- UNC
- Syracuse
- Northwestern
- Notre Dame
- Boston College
- Princeton
- Loyola
- Michigan
- Penn

Virginia seems so predictable each year. They play an RPI heavy schedule and then cruise into The Tournament on that basis, regardless of their regular season record. Then they're either 1 & done, or win 1 & done. Syracuse does the same thing but at least they made it to the quarters last year. And Denver? Eh. I don't think they can really compete with the elite.

You dislike UVA, but the data just does not support Loyola at 8 compared to UVA. UVA lost about 36% of their goals and Loyola almost 45% (quick calc so my numbers may be off a little). Bigger loss is 168 draw controls by loyola, sure they have a good coach to coach them up but that is 168 more possessions gone right there. UVA looses 90 dc as well from a team that was less than dominant at the circle. Defenses are basically a wash with returners. Loyola lost to both Princeton, who UVA beat and lost to UVA.

Not a UVA fan and not an ACC fan but the data just does not suggest they deserve to be ranked higher than UVA at the beginning of the season. Will be settled on April 8th as they go head to head and I certainly hope the team from the Patriot League comes out on top.

[LaxGuy17]

WLaxnut

I agree--the Hoos had some good wins, and they lost some one goal games to some tough opponents. But I can't take them seriously until they win a really big game--until they beat a team that they aren't supposed to beat--the way Notre Dame beat UNC last year, or the way JMU knocked off UNC (2x) and BC the year before.

——————-

This I can agree with. I am guessing it has to be BC, Cuse or ND. UNC might be tough. I see them winning one or two of those games.

[wlaxnut]

You dislike UVA, but the data just does not support Loyola at 8 compared to UVA. UVA lost about 36% of their goals and Loyola almost 45% (quick calc so my numbers may be off a little). Bigger loss is 168 draw controls by loyola, sure they have a good coach to coach them up but that is 168 more possessions gone right there. UVA looses 90 dc as well from a team that was less than dominant at the circle. Defenses are basically a wash with returners. Loyola lost to both Princeton, who UVA beat and lost to UVA.

Not a UVA fan and not an ACC fan but the data just does not suggest they deserve to be ranked higher than UVA at the beginning of the season. Will be settled on April 8th as they go head to head and I certainly hope the team from the Patriot League comes out on top.

Not so much a question of me disliking them, I have just witnessed their lack of mental toughness over the last 5 years. They look brilliant and talented in spurts during the regular season, and then they do their out-with-a-whimper reprise in the postseason. Loyola--I just think they're a mentally tougher team this year. UVA has no one on their team like powerhouse Rosenzweig. The draws and goals--new players will emerge to fill in. Draws aren't everything anyway. Any Syracuse fan will tell you that. I've heard some expectant things about Loyola this year so I'm putting them ahead of the Hoos--in my poll, not computer rankings. That will come later when the data starts getting crunched as the season progresses.

[Maryland75]

I think many of you are underestimating Maryland. They have a very solid offense to start the season with. Plenty of experience with both Griffins , Hartshorn, and May. They have experience in Hannah Warther at Midfield and Meghan Doherty and Lizzie Colson on defense. This team reminds me of the 2017 team which lost Taylor Cummings and Alice Mercer to graduation and were playing with sophomore Megan Taylor in goal. They also had lost Brooke Griffin two years before. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year and the went undefeated and won the National Championship. This years team also has the number one incoming freshman class which surely will be big contributors as the year progresses. I believe many of the coaches realized the potential in this team and was their reasoning for making them number one. I also think that Maryland will have several first team All Americans by the end of May.

[wlaxnut]

I think many of you are underestimating Maryland. They have a very solid offense to start the season with. Plenty of experience with both Griffins , Hartshorn, and May. They have experience in Hannah Warther at Midfield and Meghan Doherty and Lizzie Colson on defense. This team reminds me of the 2017 team which lost Taylor Cummings and Alice Mercer to graduation and were playing with sophomore Megan Taylor in goal. They also had lost Brooke Griffin two years before. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year and the went undefeated and won the National Championship. This years team also has the number one incoming freshman class which surely will be big contributors as the year progresses. I believe many of the coaches realized the potential in this team and was their reasoning for making them number one. I also think that Maryland will have several first team All Americans by the end of May.

I won't be surprised at all if the Terps win another title this year. As long as coach Reese is in Maryland employing her system, they will be in contention to win it all.

[Bart]

You dislike UVA, but the data just does not support Loyola at 8 compared to UVA. UVA lost about 36% of their goals and Loyola almost 45% (quick calc so my numbers may be off a little). Bigger loss is 168 draw controls by loyola, sure they have a good coach to coach them up but that is 168 more possessions gone right there. UVA looses 90 dc as well from a team that was less than dominant at the circle. Defenses are basically a wash with returners. Loyola lost to both Princeton, who UVA beat and lost to UVA.

Not a UVA fan and not an ACC fan but the data just does not suggest they deserve to be ranked higher than UVA at the beginning of the season. Will be settled on April 8th as they go head to head and I certainly hope the team from the Patriot League comes out on top.

UVA has no one on their team like powerhouse Rosenzweig.

really? Roaenzweig is a wonderful player. First team IWLCA last year and had a great stat sheet that had 46 goals, 23 gbs, 13 CTs and 85 dcs. she also had 70 assists.

UVA's Mueller had a very similar stat line of 48 goals, 57 gbs, 27 cts and 80 dcs. She did have less assists with 24. also a first team IWLCA.

Again, the numbers just do not support your conclusion that UVA lacks a powerhouse like Rozenzweig.

You are also very certain the draw controls and goals will come as kids will step up. That certainly may be the case but at this point, preseason , there are no numbers to support your conclusion. You think Loyola is a more mentally tough team, that is fine but it is your opinion and you may be correct. We will find out April 8th.

[wlaxnut]

You dislike UVA, but the data just does not support Loyola at 8 compared to UVA. UVA lost about 36% of their goals and Loyola almost 45% (quick calc so my numbers may be off a little). Bigger loss is 168 draw controls by loyola, sure they have a good coach to coach them up but that is 168 more possessions gone right there. UVA looses 90 dc as well from a team that was less than dominant at the circle. Defenses are basically a wash with returners. Loyola lost to both Princeton, who UVA beat and lost to UVA.

Not a UVA fan and not an ACC fan but the data just does not suggest they deserve to be ranked higher than UVA at the beginning of the season. Will be settled on April 8th as they go head to head and I certainly hope the team from the Patriot League comes out on top.

UVA has no one on their team like powerhouse Rosenzweig.

really? Roaenzweig is a wonderful player. First team IWLCA last year and had a great stat sheet that had 46 goals, 23 gbs, 13 CTs and 85 dcs. she also had 70 assists.

UVA's Mueller had a very similar stat line of 48 goals, 57 gbs, 27 cts and 80 dcs. She did have less assists with 24. also a first team IWLCA.

Again, the numbers just do not support your conclusion that UVA lacks a powerhouse like Rozenzweig.

You are also very certain the draw controls and goals will come as kids will step up. That certainly may be the case but at this point, preseason , there are no numbers to support your conclusion. You think Loyola is a more mentally tough team, that is fine but it is your opinion and you may be correct. We will find out April 8th.

Of course there are no numbers to support my conclusion. It's a poll, which is a fancy word for opinion.

[DMac]

Mueller also had 27 passes for unrecorded assits, as shooting space was called before the shooter could shoot but they put 'em in on the FPS. No credit for you.
While none of that's true it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Wlaxers often times get shafted in the assist dept, IMO. An assist should be given on that kind of play...just a suggestion from a casual fan.

[wlaxnut]

You dislike UVA, but the data just does not support Loyola at 8 compared to UVA. UVA lost about 36% of their goals and Loyola almost 45% (quick calc so my numbers may be off a little). Bigger loss is 168 draw controls by loyola, sure they have a good coach to coach them up but that is 168 more possessions gone right there. UVA looses 90 dc as well from a team that was less than dominant at the circle. Defenses are basically a wash with returners. Loyola lost to both Princeton, who UVA beat and lost to UVA.

Not a UVA fan and not an ACC fan but the data just does not suggest they deserve to be ranked higher than UVA at the beginning of the season. Will be settled on April 8th as they go head to head and I certainly hope the team from the Patriot League comes out on top.

UVA has no one on their team like powerhouse Rosenzweig.

really? Roaenzweig is a wonderful player. First team IWLCA last year and had a great stat sheet that had 46 goals, 23 gbs, 13 CTs and 85 dcs. she also had 70 assists.

UVA's Mueller had a very similar stat line of 48 goals, 57 gbs, 27 cts and 80 dcs. She did have less assists with 24. also a first team IWLCA.

Again, the numbers just do not support your conclusion that UVA lacks a powerhouse like Rozenzweig.

You are also very certain the draw controls and goals will come as kids will step up. That certainly may be the case but at this point, preseason , there are no numbers to support your conclusion. You think Loyola is a more mentally tough team, that is fine but it is your opinion and you may be correct. We will find out April 8th.

Mueller is Virginia's powerhouse. I didn't realize she has been such a contributor all over the field until you pointed her out. The extra 44 goals that Livy produced for her team are significant though. The notion that other players will step into the void left from departing seniors is something that another member on these boards has suggested, I can't remember precisely who--might have been seacoaster or Badlands, and I have come to see that is true. You're right Bart--we'll get a decent indicator when they square off at Loyola on the 8th of April. Thanks to you (and Doc), I am now anticipating that game.

[wlaxnut]

Mueller also had 27 passes for unrecorded assits, as shooting space was called before the shooter could shoot but they put 'em in on the FPS. No credit for you.
While none of that's true it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Wlaxers often times get shafted in the assist dept, IMO. An assist should be given on that kind of play...just a suggestion from a casual fan. :)

Good point, DMac. That's one of the subtle points of lacrosse that doesn't show up on the stat sheet (or does it?). Please tell me how you found that stat. I would love to use it in future research of other players.

[LaxGuy17]

Mueller also had 27 passes for unrecorded assits, as shooting space was called before the shooter could shoot but they put 'em in on the FPS. No credit for you.
While none of that's true it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Wlaxers often times get shafted in the assist dept, IMO. An assist should be given on that kind of play...just a suggestion from a casual fan.

Good point, DMac. That's one of the subtle points of lacrosse that doesn't show up on the stat sheet (or does it?). Please tell me how you found that stat. I would love to use it in future research of other players.

It’s nearly impossible to compare attacker’s stats with middies or even middies on deep teams with other middies who are on the field the entire game. The reason why a middie can win a Tewaaraton award is the all around contribution. A middie with 85 pts can win if they have 100 draws, 50 gbs, and 30 CTs. You really have to look at the contribution a player makes to their Team. That’s hard to do with just stats. I pay more attention to the IWLCA AAs than the IL ones because the Coaches get this. Nothing wrong with comparing stats, but compare all of them and then look at the Team and competition.

[DMac]

Mueller also had 27 passes for unrecorded assits, as shooting space was called before the shooter could shoot but they put 'em in on the FPS. No credit for you.
While none of that's true it's not beyond the realm of possibility. Wlaxers often times get shafted in the assist dept, IMO. An assist should be given on that kind of play...just a suggestion from a casual fan.

Good point, DMac. That's one of the subtle points of lacrosse that doesn't show up on the stat sheet (or does it?). Please tell me how you found that stat. I would love to use it in future research of other players.

I just made it up which is why I said, none of that's true but not beyond the realm of possibility (was not trying to be deceptive about that). There is no such stat but should be, IMO. Was a pretty big fan of Alie Jimerson, loved her story https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/fuel/inte ... acceptance, (sat next to her family at a game, super nice people), I watched Alie get "screwed" out of a lot of "assists" (would be in my book anyway). I liked the way she played, liked her mentality. She'd come from behind, draw the double and dish a sweet pass but the receiver of the sweet dish couldn't shoot because of the shooting space call. She'd then score on the FPS but there's no assist given for that. That could happen six times in a game, but on the stat sheet there would be zero assists. Stats definitely don't tell the whole story. I think wlax should give the assist to the player who throws that pass which results in a FPS goal. Just the way I see it.....gotta love those casual fans, eh?

[Dr. Tact]

You dislike UVA, but the data just does not support Loyola at 8 compared to UVA. UVA lost about 36% of their goals and Loyola almost 45% (quick calc so my numbers may be off a little). Bigger loss is 168 draw controls by loyola, sure they have a good coach to coach them up but that is 168 more possessions gone right there. UVA looses 90 dc as well from a team that was less than dominant at the circle. Defenses are basically a wash with returners. Loyola lost to both Princeton, who UVA beat and lost to UVA.

Not a UVA fan and not an ACC fan but the data just does not suggest they deserve to be ranked higher than UVA at the beginning of the season. Will be settled on April 8th as they go head to head and I certainly hope the team from the Patriot League comes out on top.

I am a little late to this party....My numbers reflect yours if not slightly different.

UVA losses from 2019 to 2020 (percentages are of team production):
Goals = 38%
Assists = 54%
Draw Controls = 38%
Points = 43%

Loyola losses from 2019 to 2020(percentages are of team production):
Goals = 44%
Assists = 35%
Draw Controls = 60%
Points = 41%

There is a fallacy in the above argument on draw controls...Loyola lost players with 190 draw controls...but that doesn't mean that the next girl(s) up wont get 200. It certainly isn't 190 (168, your #) lost possessions.

Look at Loyola historically in the draws (5 years):
2019 = 55% wins
2018 = 55% wins
2017 = 59% wins
2016 = 43% wins
2015 = 43% wins

The mean over 5 years of total draw wins is 52%....With an average of 515 draws per year for Loyola and their competition. Logically, to me, the 190 (168) number will be replaced by girl X and with her and other replacements, Loyola will still win between 47-55%. I don't see it as black and white as you portrayed it.

Anyway, stats mean nothing as they have to play the game. I expect an intense game and one that will be close. BTW, the home team has won each game for the last 4 years....

{edit: as most of you know, it has been rumored that I have a personal connection with Loyola, so the above may come off as a homer rant....but, having watched daughter play endless rec, club, HS, showcase, etc. games in the DMV, we have gotten to know many of the Virginia players. We support their successes, they have a great team of players. I wish them luck and a great ranking . I hope they win all but one regular season game - 4/8/2020}

[Matnum PI]

With the graduation of its "Big Three," No. 5 @BCwlax is counting on players like Cara Urbank and Sheila Rietano to take the next step offensively.

Can the Eagles find their way back to Championship Weekend?

[wlaxnut]

It’s nearly impossible to compare attacker’s stats with middies or even middies on deep teams with other middies who are on the field the entire game. The reason why a middie can win a Tewaaraton award is the all around contribution. A middie with 85 pts can win if they have 100 draws, 50 gbs, and 30 CTs. You really have to look at the contribution a player makes to their Team. That’s hard to do with just stats. I pay more attention to the IWLCA AAs than the IL ones because the Coaches get this. Nothing wrong with comparing stats, but compare all of them and then look at the Team and competition.

But then there’s Attacker extraodinaire Boston College Eagle Sam Apuzzo.

[wlaxnut]

I just made it up which is why I said, none of that's true but not beyond the realm of possibility (was not trying to be deceptive about that). There is no such stat but should be, IMO. Was a pretty big fan of Alie Jimerson, loved her story https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/fuel/inte ... acceptance, (sat next to her family at a game, super nice people), I watched Alie get "screwed" out of a lot of "assists" (would be in my book anyway). I liked the way she played, liked her mentality. She'd come from behind, draw the double and dish a sweet pass but the receiver of the sweet dish couldn't shoot because of the shooting space call. She'd then score on the FPS but there's no assist given for that. That could happen six times in a game, but on the stat sheet there would be zero assists. Stats definitely don't tell the whole story. I think wlax should give the assist to the player who throws that pass which results in a FPS goal. Just the way I see it.....gotta love those casual fans, eh?

Excellent point DMac! This should Indeed be a stat that gets charted. I’m going to try it for a few games and see what it looks like. This should Definitely be a stat!

[wlaxnut]

With the graduation of its "Big Three," No. 5 @BCwlax is counting on players like Cara Urbank and Sheila Rietano to take the next step offensively.

Can the Eagles find their way back to Championship Weekend?

Looking forward to reading this. Thanks Matnum.

[HVGuy]

May be in the minority here, but I trust these stats (aside from goals) about as much as I trusted HS stats. After watching 3 years of college games, I find the assist to be shaky at best. I have seen a direct pass to a shooter with no movement go as unassisted and I have seen routine circling passes to players on the outside who then dodged twice while going to goal be credited as an assist - numerous times for both. I get the impression ground balls and caused turnovers are the same. The larger programs might have trained statisticians, but i can tell you first hand that many mid-majors have no clue.

[Dr. Tact]

May be in the minority here, but I trust these stats (aside from goals) about as much as I trusted HS stats. After watching 3 years of college games, I find the assist to be shaky at best. I have seen a direct pass to a shooter with no movement go as unassisted and I have seen routine circling passes to players on the outside who then dodged twice while going to goal be credited as an assist - numerous times for both. I get the impression ground balls and caused turnovers are the same. The larger programs might have trained statisticians, but i can tell you first hand that many mid-majors have no clue.

Good points!