The Nation's Financial Condition

The odds are excellent that you will leave this forum hating someone.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

foreverlax wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:08 am The U.S. collected $92 billion less in corporate income tax in 2018, a one-year decline of 31%. Since 1934, only the Great Recession had a steeper fall in that measure.
Millions and millions of American voters think these cuts were brilliant. They have said "no, I don't want Jeff Bezos to pay taxes on what Amazon earns. Instead, I think the best way forward is if my family and I pay Bezos' share for him.

I have no clue how so many Americans got this freaking stupid so fast. The thing that gets me is: you cannot dissuade Republican voters from this path. They think it makes perfect sense for my small business to get absolutely hammered with fees and taxes, while at the same time, multinational corporations pay nothing.

There is no word in the English language that describes how angry these voters make your truly......
Farfromgeneva
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Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Technically no one is paying for it right now given the explosion in the deficit...
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
foreverlax
Posts: 3219
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by foreverlax »

a fan wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:57 am
foreverlax wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:08 am The U.S. collected $92 billion less in corporate income tax in 2018, a one-year decline of 31%. Since 1934, only the Great Recession had a steeper fall in that measure.
Millions and millions of American voters think these cuts were brilliant. They have said "no, I don't want Jeff Bezos to pay taxes on what Amazon earns. Instead, I think the best way forward is if my family and I pay Bezos' share for him.

I have no clue how so many Americans got this freaking stupid so fast. The thing that gets me is: you cannot dissuade Republican voters from this path. They think it makes perfect sense for my small business to get absolutely hammered with fees and taxes, while at the same time, multinational corporations pay nothing.

There is no word in the English language that describes how angry these voters make your truly......
This really pi$$es me off -

What Is the Small Business Tax Rate?
The small business tax rate for 2019 is a flat 21% for a C-corporation. On average, the effective small business tax rate is 19.8%. However, businesses pay different amounts in taxes based on their entities. Sole proprietorships pay a 13.3% tax rate, small partnerships pay a 23.6% tax rate, and small S corporations face 26.9% tax rate. C corporations pay 17.5%, though it’s hard to compare the rate faced by this type of entity to other small business entities.

Filing LLC Taxes
A limited liability company (LLC) is a pass-through tax entity. This means that profits pass through the company to individual members. The individual members, rather than the company, must report the members' share of the profits on their individual tax returns.

For tax reasons, the IRS treats an LLC as a sole proprietorship, a partnership, or, if the LLC elects, as a corporation.

The IRS automatically treats an LLC with more than one member as a partnership, unless the LLC opts for tax treatment as a corporation.
3 Tax Advantages of Creating an LLC
LLCs can elect how they are taxed. This is probably one of the best—but least understood—advantages of forming a LLC. You can decide whether it's better to file your taxes as a "disregarded entity" or to get corporate treatment. A disregarded entity is treated the same as a sole proprietor, so your LLC's income will be treated like personal income. If you choose corporate taxation, your business will be taxed at a lower corporate rate for the first $75,000 of income. Any LLC can choose this tax treatment by filing IRS form 8832. Both of these approaches can have big advantages, depending on how much income you personally want to take and how much you plan to reinvest in your business.
So the someone doing the exact same job as me can wind up paying half the taxes, simply due to preferential treatment from the code. As a LLC
the contribution limits to retirement funds are almost 2x higher ($57k vs $26k.

Advantages for life insurance products as well...
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:13 pm Technically no one is paying for it right now given the explosion in the deficit...
Excellent point.

This is why I am 1000% for a balanced budget amendment.

When Trump pulls his nonsense tax cut? His supporters taxes would explode to make up for the lost billions in corporate taxes.

You have to put their nose in the poo when it's still on the floor if they're to have a chance to understand the math.
jhu72
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by jhu72 »

Image STAND AGAINST FASCISM
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

“I wish you would!”
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Shhhh, TLD. Don't tell Pete that Trump's policies are hurting "other businesses". He'll think that you MUST be crazy for pointing this out.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Someone here needs a course in Aristotle, and nuance.
Philosophy was one of my majors. Studied at a non-socialist school....which you keep telling me is superior the lousy government college you attended. So if you want to discuss Aristotle, or Hegel, or anyone else.....go right ahead.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The point is this: nothing as complicated as US federal spending or the federal debt is so easily reduced to an online post with cherry-picked stats.
I'm not cherry picking anything. You can't dance your way out of this.

Under no circumstances can you claim Trump is cutting government when spending goes up by $1.5 Trillion in 3 short years.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am If the economy was being so threatened (as a fan's post suggests) by such reckless spending and gargantuan debt with no way out, I suspect we'd all be wearing sandwich boards begging for alms.
Oh, there's a way out. Your party, despite all your claims, has ZERO interest in "getting out", because they know what will happen.

Remember how I keep trying to tell you how your industry is sooooo dependent on government subsidies? Picture what would happen if you cut that spending by, say 20%. Think about what that would do, and get back to me.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Interestingly, wealth among Americans of all stripes has never been higher. Why would that be? How can that be?
I just told you why. And I've been telling you why since you arrived at the forum. You just don't want to hear it. I'll try one last time, and use bold to get the point across:

Trump borrowed $3Trillion, and pumped it through the economy.

Get it? OF COURSE our economy is doing well. What would your life look like for a year if you borrowed $100K, and blew every penny in one year? Pretty different, no? And every business you spent that money at would enjoy that success, no?

That's why. The problem, of course, is that you'd have to pay that money back. And your future spending would be curtailed because you'd have to pay that money back.

Did you know that at Trump's current spending spree rate, that interest payments on all this borrowed money will exceed our base military budget in 2025? If you don't understand this problem now that I've simplified it for you, I give up.....you don't get finance at all. Which is fine.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am I know it drives TDS sufferers crazy. Socialist economies over the centuries have eventually cratered when running out of OPM, falling victim to (at first) rapid inflation, followed by brutal crackdowns of civil rights.
If you're going to bring up Aristotelian thinking, then you should realize that all categories of government fail over time. All of them.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Here we are, at 3.5% unemployment, rising wages, peace around the world....some here think the sky is falling because of this or that statistic.
Sigh. We don't think the sky is falling. We're simply trying to explain to you how math and interest rates on loans work. Hyperbole won't get you out of this mess.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The pace at which Trump has added to the national debt isn't as surprising as it might initially seem. A different picture emerges when you look under the hood.
This is the hail mary all Republicans like you use when you realize that you can't argue your way out of the Trump's massive government expansion, and wholly borrowed economy: you try and compare it to other Presidents, as if that makes it ok that Trump is making the government trillions of dollars larger.

You agreed to the central point. Trump has made the Federal Government larger than it has ever been. And he's done it because he knows that pumping $3 Trillion borrowed dollars through the economy will line everyone's pockets. It worked, of course.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:32 am
To your last point, I do not agree. Most of my peers are republican (from what I can gather), and all of them are concerned about deficits; but like my point to a fan, this is a much more complicated topic than simply saying 'I am for' or 'I am against'.

Perhaps a longer view is necessary to make such judgments. If the economy continues to roar for the next ten years, and if Republicans controlled Congress and the office of POTUS, I'd be willing to bet a sizable sum that deficit reduction would come to fruition.
The economy HAS roared for 10 years, remember? Started in 2010, nothing but moving up.

Republicans controlled Congress during the first two years of Trump's term. What did they do? You know EXACTLY what they did. Spending exploded, and you know exactly why: because your party of flyover voters in more rural parts of America (pictures McConnell's Kentucky) is 100% dependent on handouts and socialism from the Federal government. Full stop. This is inescapable, and is why every chance the R's have gotten over the past 50 years, spending has gone up, and the Federal government has gotten LARGER.

The numbers are all right there. You can't deny this, sorry.

Republicans in Congress, of course, can't tell you that, or they won't get elected. They learned from the best: Ronald Reagan. Reagan said that "government IS the problem" with is left hand, while his right hand wrote massive checks with borrowed money.

Know who was ACTUALLY a fiscal conservative? Jimmy Carter. Jimmy Carter is what guys like you CLAIM you want: an ultra-Christian fiscal conservative with no patience for Washington's bullsh*t.

And how much do Republican voters hate him? At the same time, who do they love? Two Hollywood BS artists in Reagan and Trump. Know how much bigger the Federal government was after Reagan left office? 40%. 40% bigger. It's LAUGHABLE to tell us that Republicans "would cut spending if they had the chance".
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:32 am It doesn't do you much good to come into DC and massively cut spending, flat-line the economy, then get kicked out after 4 years, does it?
Ah, a flicker of light in Pete Brown! You DO get it. You know full well what would happen if government spending is cut by a material amount! The economy will crater.

You get it. Now you know and agree why Trump borrowed trillions. Big government money is what drives our economy. Full stop. Take that money away, move to a minimal government as Pete claims he wants? The economy would collapse, and rural America would turn into a 2nd world country.

I'm pleased you are telling us that you understand the score here!
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:32 am We know that the average Democrat trusts government far more than the average Republican
Says the guy who went to a government college. I went to three separate private schools, my friend.

And you want to claim that you don't trust government? Then explain to me in plain english why in heaven's name did you attend a government college? Especially when you claim to be a Christian! Plenty of Jesuit schools out there, you know.....


Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:32 am The takeaway from those two common sense observations is that Democrats, left to their own devices (with no opposition), would in fact massively enlarge government
Show me a Republican run State that has your minimal government, that doesn't balance that minimal government with massive Federal handouts. Go ahead. Make your case. Good luck....you'll need it...
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

a fan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:01 am
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Someone here needs a course in Aristotle, and nuance.
Philosophy was one of my majors. Studied at a non-socialist school....which you keep telling me is superior the lousy government college you attended. So if you want to discuss Aristotle, or Hegel, or anyone else.....go right ahead.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The point is this: nothing as complicated as US federal spending or the federal debt is so easily reduced to an online post with cherry-picked stats.
I'm not cherry picking anything. You can't dance your way out of this.

Under no circumstances can you claim Trump is cutting government when spending goes up by $1.5 Trillion in 3 short years.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am If the economy was being so threatened (as a fan's post suggests) by such reckless spending and gargantuan debt with no way out, I suspect we'd all be wearing sandwich boards begging for alms.
Oh, there's a way out. Your party, despite all your claims, has ZERO interest in "getting out", because they know what will happen.

Remember how I keep trying to tell you how your industry is sooooo dependent on government subsidies? Picture what would happen if you cut that spending by, say 20%. Think about what that would do, and get back to me.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Interestingly, wealth among Americans of all stripes has never been higher. Why would that be? How can that be?
I just told you why. And I've been telling you why since you arrived at the forum. You just don't want to hear it. I'll try one last time, and use bold to get the point across:

Trump borrowed $3Trillion, and pumped it through the economy.

Get it? OF COURSE our economy is doing well. What would your life look like for a year if you borrowed $100K, and blew every penny in one year? Pretty different, no? And every business you spent that money at would enjoy that success, no?

That's why. The problem, of course, is that you'd have to pay that money back.
And your future spending would be curtailed because you'd have to pay that money back.

Did you know that at Trump's current spending spree rate, that interest payments on all this borrowed money will exceed our base military budget in 2025? If you don't understand this problem now that I've simplified it for you, I give up.....you don't get finance at all. Which is fine.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am I know it drives TDS sufferers crazy. Socialist economies over the centuries have eventually cratered when running out of OPM, falling victim to (at first) rapid inflation, followed by brutal crackdowns of civil rights.
If you're going to bring up Aristotelian thinking, then you should realize that all categories of government fail over time. All of them.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Here we are, at 3.5% unemployment, rising wages, peace around the world....some here think the sky is falling because of this or that statistic.
Sigh. We don't think the sky is falling. We're simply trying to explain to you how math and interest rates on loans work. Hyperbole won't get you out of this mess.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The pace at which Trump has added to the national debt isn't as surprising as it might initially seem. A different picture emerges when you look under the hood.
This is the hail mary all Republicans like you use when you realize that you can't argue your way out of the Trump's massive government expansion, and wholly borrowed economy: you try and compare it to other Presidents, as if that makes it ok that Trump is making the government trillions of dollars larger.

You agreed to the central point. Trump has made the Federal Government larger than it has ever been. And he's done it because he knows that pumping $3 Trillion borrowed dollars through the economy will line everyone's pockets. It worked, of course.


If all it took to make an economy 'roar' was printing dollars, I suspect we'd all issue cryptocurrency in our own name. The issue is not simply about printing dollars and injecting it into the economy. Very sophisticated investors analyze government bonds and notes to see if issuers are creditworthy enough to raise funds this way.

Inflation is at 1.9%. The market is telling you, a fan, that your analysis is woeful; stick to the distiller's conventions.

;)
foreverlax
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by foreverlax »

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:01 am
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Someone here needs a course in Aristotle, and nuance.
Philosophy was one of my majors. Studied at a non-socialist school....which you keep telling me is superior the lousy government college you attended. So if you want to discuss Aristotle, or Hegel, or anyone else.....go right ahead.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The point is this: nothing as complicated as US federal spending or the federal debt is so easily reduced to an online post with cherry-picked stats.
I'm not cherry picking anything. You can't dance your way out of this.

Under no circumstances can you claim Trump is cutting government when spending goes up by $1.5 Trillion in 3 short years.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am If the economy was being so threatened (as a fan's post suggests) by such reckless spending and gargantuan debt with no way out, I suspect we'd all be wearing sandwich boards begging for alms.
Oh, there's a way out. Your party, despite all your claims, has ZERO interest in "getting out", because they know what will happen.

Remember how I keep trying to tell you how your industry is sooooo dependent on government subsidies? Picture what would happen if you cut that spending by, say 20%. Think about what that would do, and get back to me.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Interestingly, wealth among Americans of all stripes has never been higher. Why would that be? How can that be?
I just told you why. And I've been telling you why since you arrived at the forum. You just don't want to hear it. I'll try one last time, and use bold to get the point across:

Trump borrowed $3Trillion, and pumped it through the economy.

Get it? OF COURSE our economy is doing well. What would your life look like for a year if you borrowed $100K, and blew every penny in one year? Pretty different, no? And every business you spent that money at would enjoy that success, no?

That's why. The problem, of course, is that you'd have to pay that money back.
And your future spending would be curtailed because you'd have to pay that money back.

Did you know that at Trump's current spending spree rate, that interest payments on all this borrowed money will exceed our base military budget in 2025? If you don't understand this problem now that I've simplified it for you, I give up.....you don't get finance at all. Which is fine.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am I know it drives TDS sufferers crazy. Socialist economies over the centuries have eventually cratered when running out of OPM, falling victim to (at first) rapid inflation, followed by brutal crackdowns of civil rights.
If you're going to bring up Aristotelian thinking, then you should realize that all categories of government fail over time. All of them.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Here we are, at 3.5% unemployment, rising wages, peace around the world....some here think the sky is falling because of this or that statistic.
Sigh. We don't think the sky is falling. We're simply trying to explain to you how math and interest rates on loans work. Hyperbole won't get you out of this mess.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The pace at which Trump has added to the national debt isn't as surprising as it might initially seem. A different picture emerges when you look under the hood.
This is the hail mary all Republicans like you use when you realize that you can't argue your way out of the Trump's massive government expansion, and wholly borrowed economy: you try and compare it to other Presidents, as if that makes it ok that Trump is making the government trillions of dollars larger.

You agreed to the central point. Trump has made the Federal Government larger than it has ever been. And he's done it because he knows that pumping $3 Trillion borrowed dollars through the economy will line everyone's pockets. It worked, of course.


If all it took to make an economy 'roar' was printing dollars, I suspect we'd all issue cryptocurrency in our own name.
You don't seem to understand some of the basics regarding the value of a nations currency.

The issue is not simply about printing dollars and injecting it into the economy. Very sophisticated investors analyze government bonds and notes to see if issuers are creditworthy enough to raise funds this way.
Nope...government bonds have "no" default risk. State and local and corp bonds on the other hand do require some analysis

Inflation is at 1.9%. The market is telling you, a fan, that your analysis is woeful; stick to the distiller's conventions.
What it does tell us - there is very little pricing power to drive earnings up..you can see that in the ten year bond, with a yield of 1.6%...3% GDP is currently not in the cards.

Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

foreverlax wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:57 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:01 am
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Someone here needs a course in Aristotle, and nuance.
Philosophy was one of my majors. Studied at a non-socialist school....which you keep telling me is superior the lousy government college you attended. So if you want to discuss Aristotle, or Hegel, or anyone else.....go right ahead.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The point is this: nothing as complicated as US federal spending or the federal debt is so easily reduced to an online post with cherry-picked stats.
I'm not cherry picking anything. You can't dance your way out of this.

Under no circumstances can you claim Trump is cutting government when spending goes up by $1.5 Trillion in 3 short years.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am If the economy was being so threatened (as a fan's post suggests) by such reckless spending and gargantuan debt with no way out, I suspect we'd all be wearing sandwich boards begging for alms.
Oh, there's a way out. Your party, despite all your claims, has ZERO interest in "getting out", because they know what will happen.

Remember how I keep trying to tell you how your industry is sooooo dependent on government subsidies? Picture what would happen if you cut that spending by, say 20%. Think about what that would do, and get back to me.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Interestingly, wealth among Americans of all stripes has never been higher. Why would that be? How can that be?
I just told you why. And I've been telling you why since you arrived at the forum. You just don't want to hear it. I'll try one last time, and use bold to get the point across:

Trump borrowed $3Trillion, and pumped it through the economy.

Get it? OF COURSE our economy is doing well. What would your life look like for a year if you borrowed $100K, and blew every penny in one year? Pretty different, no? And every business you spent that money at would enjoy that success, no?

That's why. The problem, of course, is that you'd have to pay that money back.
And your future spending would be curtailed because you'd have to pay that money back.

Did you know that at Trump's current spending spree rate, that interest payments on all this borrowed money will exceed our base military budget in 2025? If you don't understand this problem now that I've simplified it for you, I give up.....you don't get finance at all. Which is fine.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am I know it drives TDS sufferers crazy. Socialist economies over the centuries have eventually cratered when running out of OPM, falling victim to (at first) rapid inflation, followed by brutal crackdowns of civil rights.
If you're going to bring up Aristotelian thinking, then you should realize that all categories of government fail over time. All of them.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Here we are, at 3.5% unemployment, rising wages, peace around the world....some here think the sky is falling because of this or that statistic.
Sigh. We don't think the sky is falling. We're simply trying to explain to you how math and interest rates on loans work. Hyperbole won't get you out of this mess.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The pace at which Trump has added to the national debt isn't as surprising as it might initially seem. A different picture emerges when you look under the hood.
This is the hail mary all Republicans like you use when you realize that you can't argue your way out of the Trump's massive government expansion, and wholly borrowed economy: you try and compare it to other Presidents, as if that makes it ok that Trump is making the government trillions of dollars larger.

You agreed to the central point. Trump has made the Federal Government larger than it has ever been. And he's done it because he knows that pumping $3 Trillion borrowed dollars through the economy will line everyone's pockets. It worked, of course.


If all it took to make an economy 'roar' was printing dollars, I suspect we'd all issue cryptocurrency in our own name.
You don't seem to understand some of the basics regarding the value of a nations currency.

The issue is not simply about printing dollars and injecting it into the economy. Very sophisticated investors analyze government bonds and notes to see if issuers are creditworthy enough to raise funds this way.
Nope...government bonds have "no" default risk. State and local and corp bonds on the other hand do require some analysis

Inflation is at 1.9%. The market is telling you, a fan, that your analysis is woeful; stick to the distiller's conventions.
What it does tell us - there is very little pricing power to drive earnings up..you can see that in the ten year bond, with a yield of 1.6%...3% GDP is currently not in the cards.



I always love the 'you have no clue about this subject'-itis on the Internet. But you are correct: I don't understand a ton about currency issuances.

But my guess is neither do you. "Nope...government bonds have "no" default risk."

I think some institutional investors that bought bonds from these countries might disagree:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... eign-debt/

Also, for some levity, here's what investors do when countries do in fact default:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-f ... na-2012-10
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34080
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:08 pm
foreverlax wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:57 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm
a fan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:01 am
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Someone here needs a course in Aristotle, and nuance.
Philosophy was one of my majors. Studied at a non-socialist school....which you keep telling me is superior the lousy government college you attended. So if you want to discuss Aristotle, or Hegel, or anyone else.....go right ahead.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The point is this: nothing as complicated as US federal spending or the federal debt is so easily reduced to an online post with cherry-picked stats.
I'm not cherry picking anything. You can't dance your way out of this.

Under no circumstances can you claim Trump is cutting government when spending goes up by $1.5 Trillion in 3 short years.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am If the economy was being so threatened (as a fan's post suggests) by such reckless spending and gargantuan debt with no way out, I suspect we'd all be wearing sandwich boards begging for alms.
Oh, there's a way out. Your party, despite all your claims, has ZERO interest in "getting out", because they know what will happen.

Remember how I keep trying to tell you how your industry is sooooo dependent on government subsidies? Picture what would happen if you cut that spending by, say 20%. Think about what that would do, and get back to me.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Interestingly, wealth among Americans of all stripes has never been higher. Why would that be? How can that be?
I just told you why. And I've been telling you why since you arrived at the forum. You just don't want to hear it. I'll try one last time, and use bold to get the point across:

Trump borrowed $3Trillion, and pumped it through the economy.

Get it? OF COURSE our economy is doing well. What would your life look like for a year if you borrowed $100K, and blew every penny in one year? Pretty different, no? And every business you spent that money at would enjoy that success, no?

That's why. The problem, of course, is that you'd have to pay that money back.
And your future spending would be curtailed because you'd have to pay that money back.

Did you know that at Trump's current spending spree rate, that interest payments on all this borrowed money will exceed our base military budget in 2025? If you don't understand this problem now that I've simplified it for you, I give up.....you don't get finance at all. Which is fine.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am I know it drives TDS sufferers crazy. Socialist economies over the centuries have eventually cratered when running out of OPM, falling victim to (at first) rapid inflation, followed by brutal crackdowns of civil rights.
If you're going to bring up Aristotelian thinking, then you should realize that all categories of government fail over time. All of them.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am Here we are, at 3.5% unemployment, rising wages, peace around the world....some here think the sky is falling because of this or that statistic.
Sigh. We don't think the sky is falling. We're simply trying to explain to you how math and interest rates on loans work. Hyperbole won't get you out of this mess.
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:25 am The pace at which Trump has added to the national debt isn't as surprising as it might initially seem. A different picture emerges when you look under the hood.
This is the hail mary all Republicans like you use when you realize that you can't argue your way out of the Trump's massive government expansion, and wholly borrowed economy: you try and compare it to other Presidents, as if that makes it ok that Trump is making the government trillions of dollars larger.

You agreed to the central point. Trump has made the Federal Government larger than it has ever been. And he's done it because he knows that pumping $3 Trillion borrowed dollars through the economy will line everyone's pockets. It worked, of course.


If all it took to make an economy 'roar' was printing dollars, I suspect we'd all issue cryptocurrency in our own name.
You don't seem to understand some of the basics regarding the value of a nations currency.

The issue is not simply about printing dollars and injecting it into the economy. Very sophisticated investors analyze government bonds and notes to see if issuers are creditworthy enough to raise funds this way.
Nope...government bonds have "no" default risk. State and local and corp bonds on the other hand do require some analysis

Inflation is at 1.9%. The market is telling you, a fan, that your analysis is woeful; stick to the distiller's conventions.
What it does tell us - there is very little pricing power to drive earnings up..you can see that in the ten year bond, with a yield of 1.6%...3% GDP is currently not in the cards.



I always love the 'you have no clue about this subject'-itis on the Internet. But you are correct: I don't understand a ton about currency issuances.

But my guess is neither do you. "Nope...government bonds have "no" default risk."

I think some institutional investors that bought bonds from these countries might disagree:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... eign-debt/

Also, for some levity, here's what investors do when countries do in fact default:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-f ... na-2012-10
Where is the nuance?
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a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm If all it took to make an economy 'roar' was printing dollars, I suspect we'd all issue cryptocurrency in our own name.
:lol: How do you think Reagan got us out of the 70's malaise? Or how did Bush pull us out of the post 9/11 recession.

And how did Bush/Obama pull us out of the crash.

Geez, dude. What the heck did you study in college? It sure as heck wasn't finance.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm The issue is not simply about printing dollars and injecting it into the economy. Very sophisticated investors analyze government bonds and notes to see if issuers are creditworthy enough to raise funds this way.
I know. What does that have to do with this conversation? You seem to think that we're all saying that America is going to collapse. That's not what any of us are saying. What we're saying is that all this borrowing is stupid and has negative consequences that unsophisticated citizens----like you-----simply don't want to hear about.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm Inflation is at 1.9%.
:lol: So you don't hold any land or assets, is that it?

If your assets are increasing in value by a piddly 1.9% per year, and your cost of living is rising by just 1.9% per year? That tells me that either you can't add, or you're living in the middle of nowhere in rural America and don't own anything. My money, given the silliness of your posts, is that you can't add.

The measurement for inflation is a joke. The land that my shop is on has increased in value by 1.9% quarterly since Trump arrived. But if you think that's where inflation is, okie-dokie.

That said, this inflation rate has NOTHING to do with the risk of lending to the US, as you are implying here. The global 1%ers need a safe place to park their money and get yield. THAT is why they keep snapping up US Bonds. And the 1%ers are getting richer and richer, and can't put their capital to work anywhere else with the same risk component as the bonds.

But of course, let's try your brilliant idea from several weeks ago-----where you said we should intentionally default on America's bonds. :lol:
foreverlax
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by foreverlax »

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:08 pm


I always love the 'you have no clue about this subject'-itis on the Internet. But you are correct: I don't understand a ton about currency issuances. I didn't say you had no clue...I simply said what you said.

But my guess is neither do you. "Nope...government bonds have "no" default risk."
Well you'd be wrong.


I think some institutional investors that bought bonds from these countries might disagree:
I thought we were talking about America...debt issued by .gov has no default premium. Every other bond in the world is traded off of the comparable treasury note.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... eign-debt/

Also, for some levity, here's what investors do when countries do in fact default:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-f ... na-2012-10
More than one "professional investor" has been duped by an issuer or banker.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:57 pm AK, WY, SD, and FL. Aren't those all reliably Republican states?

Help me out here. I am confused.
Yep. You walked right in to this one.

What percentage of the State of Alaska's government budget comes from Federal coffers?

Take your time, use google, and get back to us.


You are a walking talking billboard for the willful blindness of Libertarians. Take the Federal Money out of AK, WY, SD, and FL. Pretty please, with sugar on top.

Where do you think all the money comes from for allllll those blue haired retirees in your home State of Florida? You think all those 65+ year olds are getting their health care from State coffers, or private insurance? Or are they getting it all from Medicare, that gives those FLA residents $3 for every $1 they put into the program. A handout that keeps alllll those health related businesses flush with borrowed Federal money.

The difference between you and me is that I would be OVERJOYED to cut off all Federal funding to these States. I would do that so fast, it would make your head spin. Who do I vote for to make that happen?

Meanwhile, how do you think California and New York (snicker) would fare if you didn't drain billions of dollars, send it to Washington...and then send that money to South Dakota to give it to farmers?

California would be a paradise, and South Dakota would close immediately. No one would live there. But if that's what you want to do? Sign me up.
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

a fan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:12 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm If all it took to make an economy 'roar' was printing dollars, I suspect we'd all issue cryptocurrency in our own name.
:lol: How do you think Reagan got us out of the 70's malaise? Or how did Bush pull us out of the post 9/11 recession.

And how did Bush/Obama pull us out of the crash.

Geez, dude. What the heck did you study in college? It sure as heck wasn't finance.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm The issue is not simply about printing dollars and injecting it into the economy. Very sophisticated investors analyze government bonds and notes to see if issuers are creditworthy enough to raise funds this way.
I know. What does that have to do with this conversation? You seem to think that we're all saying that America is going to collapse. That's not what any of us are saying. What we're saying is that all this borrowing is stupid and has negative consequences that unsophisticated citizens----like you-----simply don't want to hear about.

Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:47 pm Inflation is at 1.9%.
:lol: So you don't hold any land or assets, is that it?

If your assets are increasing in value by a piddly 1.9% per year, and your cost of living is rising by just 1.9% per year? That tells me that either you can't add, or you're living in the middle of nowhere in rural America and don't own anything. My money, given the silliness of your posts, is that you can't add.

The measurement for inflation is a joke. The land that my shop is on has increased in value by 1.9% quarterly since Trump arrived. But if you think that's where inflation is, okie-dokie.

That said, this inflation rate has NOTHING to do with the risk of lending to the US, as you are implying here. The global 1%ers need a safe place to park their money and get yield. THAT is why they keep snapping up US Bonds. And the 1%ers are getting richer and richer, and can't put their capital to work anywhere else with the same risk component as the bonds.

But of course, let's try your brilliant idea from several weeks ago-----where you said we should intentionally default on America's bonds. :lol:


As a quick reminder, that's not what I "said" (Tech pointed out to you here the other day that you have an unfortunate habit of inserting words into other poster's mouths with no corroboration).

What I said is I am not sure how we get out of this mess, but my guess is some very smart people could figure it out because we are not a poor country. if we do not come up with a plan, my "GUESS" is we will default. I can not see how we can ever pay back $23 trillion unless we are allowed to roll over the debt to infinity.
Peter Brown
Posts: 12878
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:19 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

a fan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:24 pm
Peter Brown wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:57 pm AK, WY, SD, and FL. Aren't those all reliably Republican states?

Help me out here. I am confused.
Yep. You walked right in to this one.

What percentage of the State of Alaska's government budget comes from Federal coffers?

Take your time, use google, and get back to us.


You are a walking talking billboard for the willful blindness of Libertarians. Take the Federal Money out of AK, WY, SD, and FL. Pretty please, with sugar on top.

Where do you think all the money comes from for allllll those blue haired retirees in your home State of Florida? You think all those 65+ year olds are getting their health care from State coffers, or private insurance? Or are they getting it all from Medicare, that gives those FLA residents $3 for every $1 they put into the program. A handout that keeps alllll those health related businesses flush with borrowed Federal money.

The difference between you and me is that I would be OVERJOYED to cut off all Federal funding to these States. I would do that so fast, it would make your head spin. Who do I vote for to make that happen?

Meanwhile, how do you think California and New York (snicker) would fare if you didn't drain billions of dollars, send it to Washington...and then send that money to South Dakota to give it to farmers?

California would be a paradise, and South Dakota would close immediately. No one would live there. But if that's what you want to do? Sign me up.


None of those 4 are in the top 10... :roll:

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-l ... ment/2700/
a fan
Posts: 19546
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Nope. Here's your exact words.....
Peter Brown wrote: Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:16 am Actually we owe most of the debt to our banks and to the Fed. Trump wishes he had borrowed from himself!

I think the out is simply defaulting.
Go ahead and pretend that "this means something else", and that you didn't suggest that we should default.

If that's not what you meant, next time, use clearer English rather than blaming your fellow posters for your poor choice of words.
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34080
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

Over here dude:

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-l ... ment/2700/

Here is a nice "food stamp" chart

Image
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