China Trade Deal

[a fan]

Anyone care to start the spin on Trump's new deal?

Recalling the claims of fans of this Trade War, the deal is supposed to:

1. End intellectual property abuses. This is the biggest gripe by far.
2. Cripple China's economy. Because if the US continues to "enable" the Chinese government, they'll plow it into their growing military
3. Reverse the trade deficit.

And I'll add to this: the gains have to make up for billions of dollars of damage (meter is still running on that) done to get this new deal.




https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-china-c ... 1576234325

[jhu72]

As long as we are asking Trumpnista to explain how this China "deal" is so great beyond the obvious (we appear to recoup some fraction of the sunk cost of the trade war, IF China does what Trump claims), could they explain the latest Trump fewmet, that now that Boris Johnson has been re-elected we will do big deals with Great Britain, that some how we could not have done before the election. Trump's knowledge of economics clearly exceeds that of all others.

[Kismet]

Copied post by Trinity in the Financial thread

“Here's some back of the napkin math on China deal:
China agrees to buy $50B of ag products next year, increase of $29B from pre-tariff trade.
Tariffs cost U.S. farmers $11B. Then taxpayers put up $28B in emergency ag payouts.
So...we lost/spent $39B. Gained $29B.
Nice work! “

Senator Chris Murphy

Another head fake from stable genius

[foreverlax]

Kudlow on CNBC right now...explaining the details. Market now up 10.90 pts.

[jhu72]

Kudlow on CNBC right now...explaining the details. Market now up 10.90 pts.

The market had its bump earlier when it was announced that a phase 1 deal was coming. I think the reaction is likely to the fact that what was reported a few days ago seems to remain true. Not much reaction at all. Bigger reaction in the other direction if it didn't happen. My guess.

[foreverlax]

Kudlow on CNBC right now...explaining the details. Market now up 10.90 pts.

The market had its bump earlier when it was announced that a phase 1 deal was coming. I think the reaction is likely to the fact that what was reported a few days ago seems to remain true. Not much reaction at all. Bigger reaction in the other direction if it didn't happen. My guess.

That's called, "buy the rumor, sell the fact".

[a fan]

Meet the Trump supporter. A complete and utter lack of self awareness. It shows how people who think Trump is doing a great job with this Trade War think. They think the trade war is super awesome, so long as "someone else in America" is getting screwed by the tariff war, and not me. But when they get laid off? "Hey, this trade war is bad".

What the F happened to our country where we have millions and millions of "i got mine" Americans calling the shots not just at the voting polls, but in DC, where it counts? No one cares about fairness. So guess what? Neither do our leaders. We EARNED Trump.

I"m counting the days before Trump's economic policies come back to bite these people in the butt. They'll blame the Dems, of course. But I get to KNOW why they will be suffering economically. And that's enough for me.

Headline Op Ed "I Support Trump’s Tariffs but Need an Exemption"

I didn't even have to look for this guy's age to know full well he's a Boomer. Because this is how so many "I got mine, F everyone else" Boomers think. He is completely unaware of how not just ignorant and flat out selfish his Op Ed is.......but also how clear it is that he has NO interest in having to deal with free market forces. What this guys is for....and what Farmers who support Trump are for....is socialism, handouts, and protectionism for them, and the free market for the rest of us suckers who don't have our politicians on speed dial. This line of thinking can't die soon enough.

The commenters from fellow businessmen are hilarious:

Seriously? You want government protection against your foreign competitors AND government protection against your domestic suppliers? Since you're incapable of surviving any form of free market competition, why don't we just nationalize your steel plant and cut out the useless middleman (you)?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-support- ... 1578441310

[foreverlax]

Meet the Trump supporter. A complete and utter lack of self awareness. It shows how people who think Trump is doing a great job with this Trade War think. They think the trade war is super awesome, so long as "someone else in America" is getting screwed by the tariff war, and not me. But when they get laid off? "Hey, this trade war is bad".

What the F happened to our country where we have millions and millions of "i got mine" Americans calling the shots not just at the voting polls, but in DC, where it counts? No one cares about fairness. So guess what? Neither do our leaders. We EARNED Trump.

I"m counting the days before Trump's economic policies come back to bite these people in the butt. They'll blame the Dems, of course. But I get to KNOW why they will be suffering economically. And that's enough for me.

Headline Op Ed "I Support Trump’s Tariffs but Need an Exemption"

I didn't even have to look for this guy's age to know full well he's a Boomer. Because this is how so many "I got mine, F everyone else" Boomers think. He is completely unaware of how not just ignorant and flat out selfish his Op Ed is.......but also how clear it is that he has NO interest in having to deal with free market forces. What this guys is for....and what Farmers who support Trump are for....is socialism, handouts, and protectionism for them, and the free market for the rest of us suckers who don't have our politicians on speed dial. This line of thinking can't die soon enough.

The commenters from fellow businessmen are hilarious:

Seriously? You want government protection against your foreign competitors AND government protection against your domestic suppliers? Since you're incapable of surviving any form of free market competition, why don't we just nationalize your steel plant and cut out the useless middleman (you)?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-support- ... 1578441310

Come on a fan, things are going great....

But phase one was — is a phenomenal deal. Could be up to $50 billion in farm product. So that’s something that — the most they ever did was $16 billion. So they go from $16 billion to up to $50 billion. So that’s numerous times more than they were buying in the past. It’s going to have a huge impact. And I see farm prices are going way up. I see corn is just — had some big increases over the last little while. Cattle has been doing really well. And the farmers liked me anyway. That’s what I like about the farmers.

We had tens of billions of dollars left over; I gave it to the farmers. The next year it was $16 billion. I took $16 billion out of the tariffs; I gave it to the farmers. So the farmers did pretty well, and now they’re doing great. And the prices are going up very substantially, and China is kicking in. China has already started to buy. Japan — the deal is done. They have been buying. It’s a $40 billion deal.

.....all that leftover money from the tariffs!!

[foreverlax]

The U.S. Trade Deficit Is Narrowing for Reasons That Aren’t All Good

Here’s a closer look:

- The biggest contributor to the drop in the deficit from January through November was the continuing boom in shale oil. In nominal terms, the U.S.’s petroleum-trade shortfall with the world fell to $13.1 billion in the first 11 months of 2019, more than $35 billion less than it was in the same period of 2018.

- When it comes to the rest of the U.S. economy — including the manufacturing sector — the picture looks very different. The non-petroleum deficit grew almost $20 billion to $766 billion in the first 11 months of 2019, putting it on track to beat 2018’s full-year record gap of $825 billion.

- The other major factor driving the narrowing deficit was a decrease in imports rather than an increase in exports. That is often a sign of weaker demand for the U.S. rather than an economy poised for a burst of growth.

- It also creates a statistical quirk that has long been the source of a bitter debate between advocates of tariffs like Navarro and other economists.

- Because of the way gross domestic product is calculated, a reduction in imports contributes to faster headline GDP growth. Yet most economists argue that’s an accounting anomaly rather than a reason to cheer, especially if it is a sign of a weakening demand rather than stronger domestic production.

[a fan]

'Phase one'

[Typical Lax Dad]

'Phase one'

Phase 2 is after the election! It’s going to be a beautiful deal. The best ever.

[CU88]

I see the outcome of o d's trade war with China:

— 300,000+ fewer jobs
— $106 billion+ a year in costs to consumers
— $9 billion drop in agricultural exports
— Slower economic growth

Here's the bottom line: this brand of economic nationalism is making Americans poorer.

MAGA?

NOT!

[jhu72]

You guys are so skeptical. You just can't bring yourselves to take our great president at his word.

[youthathletics]

'Phase one'

I though of this clip from a very funny movie when I heard 'Phase 1'......engage.

This is Trump and Jinping

[Peter Brown]

Kudlow on CNBC right now...explaining the details. Market now up 10.90 pts.

Like this thread's genesis, you commented too soon. Shall we expect a mea culpa?

(it is perhaps best to have a self-imposed time rule before commenting on matters which we probably have no understanding of other than a superficial review - for the China trade deal, as it is being layered in on 3 phases, me personally, I'd wait to see what the real end game is before assigning a weight to the impact)

[Peter Brown]

I see the outcome of o d's trade war with China:

— 300,000+ fewer jobs
— $106 billion+ a year in costs to consumers
— $9 billion drop in agricultural exports
— Slower economic growth

Here's the bottom line: this brand of economic nationalism is making Americans poorer.

MAGA?

NOT!

wow, sounds like a depression, a recession at least. Can you post some relevant metrics like wage growth, the S&P, unemployment, small business confidence, housing starts, growth in the net wealth of Americans since 1-20-17? I want to confirm how awful life is in America before I invest any more. Thanks for the help! Surely it should follow from your dreary post.

[a fan]

Kudlow on CNBC right now...explaining the details. Market now up 10.90 pts.

Like this thread's genesis, you commented too soon. Shall we expect a mea culpa?

(it is perhaps best to have a self-imposed time rule before commenting on matters which we probably have no understanding of other than a superficial review - for the China trade deal, as it is being layered in on 3 phases, me personally, I'd wait to see what the real end game is before assigning a weight to the impact)

Shall we start with the economic damage done to businesses like mine since Trump started this fake trade war? Or do you not care because your industry is being protected and favored by Trump?

And those of us who aren't utter morons know that this is vintage Trump. Start a trade war, end the trade war, proclaim victory, his fans cheer.

Or to be more direct: your man Trump called NAFTA the worst deal ever. We now have a new Trump deal. Give me three major changes to US/Canada/Mexico trade that will have a material effect on American workers and GDP that demonstrates a tectonic change in how we trade with those two countries.

When you can't come up with one single major change, you'll see why we're laughing at this phony "three stage" deal with China.

[Peter Brown]

Kudlow on CNBC right now...explaining the details. Market now up 10.90 pts.

Like this thread's genesis, you commented too soon. Shall we expect a mea culpa?

(it is perhaps best to have a self-imposed time rule before commenting on matters which we probably have no understanding of other than a superficial review - for the China trade deal, as it is being layered in on 3 phases, me personally, I'd wait to see what the real end game is before assigning a weight to the impact)

Shall we start with the economic damage done to businesses like mine since Trump started this fake trade war? Or do you not care because your industry is being protected and favored by Trump?

And those of us who aren't utter morons know that this is vintage Trump. Start a trade war, end the trade war, proclaim victory, his fans cheer.

Or to be more direct: your man Trump called NAFTA the worst deal ever. We now have a new Trump deal. Give me three major changes to US/Canada/Mexico trade that will have a material effect on American workers and GDP that demonstrates a tectonic change in how we trade with those two countries.

When you can't come up with one single major change, you'll see why we're laughing at this phony "three stage" deal with China.

I’ll choose to wait and see. You can react immediately. History suggests that’s unwise.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Kudlow on CNBC right now...explaining the details. Market now up 10.90 pts.

Like this thread's genesis, you commented too soon. Shall we expect a mea culpa?

(it is perhaps best to have a self-imposed time rule before commenting on matters which we probably have no understanding of other than a superficial review - for the China trade deal, as it is being layered in on 3 phases, me personally, I'd wait to see what the real end game is before assigning a weight to the impact)

Shall we start with the economic damage done to businesses like mine since Trump started this fake trade war? Or do you not care because your industry is being protected and favored by Trump?

And those of us who aren't utter morons know that this is vintage Trump. Start a trade war, end the trade war, proclaim victory, his fans cheer.

Or to be more direct: your man Trump called NAFTA the worst deal ever. We now have a new Trump deal. Give me three major changes to US/Canada/Mexico trade that will have a material effect on American workers and GDP that demonstrates a tectonic change in how we trade with those two countries.

When you can't come up with one single major change, you'll see why we're laughing at this phony "three stage" deal with China.

You meant three stooges. You have a typo.

[a fan]

I’ll choose to wait and see. You can react immediately. History suggests that’s unwise.

Facepalm.

Of course you can wait and see. The tariffs haven't hit your business.

They HAVE hit mine. I HAVE to react immediately. I can give you a tally from just this year. The odds that we will "make this up" somewhere are zero.

No one thinks longer term than a whiskey distiller. I have 20 year business plan, in writing, that I'm executing right now.

Enjoy your Trump protections, old boy. Political protection comes and goes. I hope for your sake that you put that in your long term planning.