The Nation's Financial Condition

[youthathletics]

oops. Wrong by close to 1 million jobs.

https://www.google.com/search?q=jobs+nu ... e&ie=UTF-8

[Brooklyn]

Bill Clinton and the wide gap in job gains by presidential party
Speaking at the Democratic convention, Bill Clinton suggested that the partisan “score” on job creation since the Cold War was 50 million to 1 million. It is.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... -cold-war/

Former president Bill Clinton, speaking during the third night of the Democratic convention on Wednesday, presented a bit of data meant to promote his party — and, indirectly, his period in office.

“You’re going to have a hard time believing this, but so help me, I triple-checked it,” Clinton began. “Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, America has created about 51 million new jobs. I swear I checked this three times. Even I couldn’t believe it. What’s the score? Democrats 50, Republicans one.”

That is: 50 million jobs added under Democratic presidents and 1 million under Republicans.

“One,” Clinton continued. After referring to vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz’s past job as a high school football coach, Clinton spiked the ball. “But even the most limited of us in what we know about football, or any other sport, knows that if you’ve got 50 and the other side’s got one, you’re ahead.”

This is one measure, obviously selected for effect. But Clinton’s not wrong.

There have been six presidents since 1989, three from each party. Under the three Democrats — Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden — there was a cumulative increase of 50 million more people working between the starts of their terms and the ends. Under the three Republicans — George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush and Donald Trump — the cumulative total was, in fact, only 1 million. (That’s starting at the beginning of the elder Bush’s term, not the fall of the Berlin Wall a few months later that marked the start of the Cold War’s demise.)



There is an avalanche of caveats that apply here, certainly. One is that “increase in people working” is not fully equivalent to “jobs created,” nor is it necessarily a measure of the policies or administration of the presidents.

It’s also the case that both George W. Bush and Trump saw calamities during their presidencies that significantly reduced employment: the recession under Bush and the coronavirus pandemic under Trump. But you can also see how this brings us back to the uncertainties just mentioned. Could the job loss during those events have been more limited under different presidents?

If we extend the point backward a bit further, to the end of World War II, the difference is still striking. Each party has had seven presidents since that time, with 88 million jobs added under Democrats and 32 million under Republicans.



Take out the post-Cold War period and you see that the distinction is more modest: 38 million under Democrats to 31 under Republicans. There is, however, still a distinction.

Of course, these presidents also had different durations in office. John F. Kennedy wasn’t in office as long as his predecessor, Dwight D. Eisenhower. So it would make sense if the country added fewer jobs during his administration. (As it turns out, it didn’t, but you get the point.)

If we adjust employment increases by months in office, we still see a difference — particularly since George H.W. Bush in 1989.



Again, more caveats can be sprinkled over all of this. Job growth under Biden was increased to some extent because employers were getting back up to speed after layoffs at the outset of the pandemic, for example.

So what happens if we take just the middle two years of Trump’s and Biden’s terms and compare them? That eliminates the covid effects for Trump and the boost at the outset for Biden. It also gives a year during which their policies could be expected to have had an effect.

In 2018 and 2019, under Trump, the country added 4.3 million jobs. In 2022 and 2023, under Biden, it added 7.5 million jobs.

You don’t have to be a sports whiz to see that seven puts you ahead of four, either.



Job creation: Dems always surpass the republiCONs. The proof is all there.

[RedFromMI]

Colleague of mine for years at my university (I am now retired) grew up in the 50s/60s. Family was from part of WV near I-81 north of far western VA.

He told me he split growing up in that part of WV and Ohio. Each time there was a D president, jobs up north were plentiful, and the family would relocate to OH. Then when an R came into office, his father would lose his job, and they were back to WV where they could live much more cheaply.

Notice in those graphs that each time the bar changes from red to blue the increase in average jobs...

[Farfromgeneva]

oops. Wrong by close to 1 million jobs.

https://www.google.com/search?q=jobs+nu ... e&ie=UTF-8

Not a conspiracy but a flaw in the models I’ve been trying to tell loser cheerleader cats around here in both sides but one specific untrained and unlearned in this domain wanna be playa from MN via pretend tough guy upbringing in NYC (as if no pu**ies or losers ever grew up there as proof or something)

You’ll continue to get dumb thoughtless uneducated cheerleading from some anyways. But it’s a problem of the system cutting both ways not just currently admin.

Fact of the matter is I’ve tried explain latency and r squared errors I models and how to understand these things to one pathetic sycophant but you’ll keep
Seeing this uneducated nonsense over and over. It’s just cheerleading liek I said years ago, the world needs advocates too you just can’t take them as serious people or give them any power because that would be a pathetic disaster

[Farfromgeneva]

Colleague of mine for years at my university (I am now retired) grew up in the 50s/60s. Family was from part of WV near I-81 north of far western VA.

He told me he split growing up in that part of WV and Ohio. Each time there was a D president, jobs up north were plentiful, and the family would relocate to OH. Then when an R came into office, his father would lose his job, and they were back to WV where they could live much more cheaply.

Notice in those graphs that each time the bar changes from red to blue the increase in average jobs...

Martinsburg area? Or Donna ferry? I know the 81 corridor too well so just curious. My buddy who runs a bank in Va (president there’s a ceo technically who preens in conferees but doesn’t “run” the bank) who took over in 2017 for a ceo who controlled the bank and died and is airline dealing with a few hundred million in outstanding non performing loans to Jim Justice they can’t bounce. ( one coal related tied to re like His ownership in the Greenbriar)

The reason it shifts form red to blue is educated workers from blue areas are migrating to cheaper col the story of the se for 40yrs were like locusts on this country

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-2k9Iqv ... BiNWFlZA==

[Farfromgeneva]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-2k9Iqv ... BiNWFlZA==

I love that ish. Never understand why anyone buys that other than mandates to deploy capital and time value decay considerations

[RedFromMI]

Colleague of mine for years at my university (I am now retired) grew up in the 50s/60s. Family was from part of WV near I-81 north of far western VA.

He told me he split growing up in that part of WV and Ohio. Each time there was a D president, jobs up north were plentiful, and the family would relocate to OH. Then when an R came into office, his father would lose his job, and they were back to WV where they could live much more cheaply.

Notice in those graphs that each time the bar changes from red to blue the increase in average jobs...

Martinsburg area? Or Donna ferry? I know the 81 corridor too well so just curious. My buddy who runs a bank in Va (president there’s a ceo technically who preens in conferees but doesn’t “run” the bank) who took over in 2017 for a ceo who controlled the bank and died and is airline dealing with a few hundred million in outstanding non performing loans to Jim Justice they can’t bounce. ( one coal related tied to re like His ownership in the Greenbriar)

The reason it shifts form red to blue is educated workers from blue areas are migrating to cheaper col the story of the se for 40yrs were like locusts on this country

It has been too long since I talked with him to remember the exact town, but it was pretty rural where he grew up in WV. Think of somewhere nearer to Wytheville or Roanoke along I-81 in VA, but shifted N into WV...

[Farfromgeneva]

Colleague of mine for years at my university (I am now retired) grew up in the 50s/60s. Family was from part of WV near I-81 north of far western VA.

He told me he split growing up in that part of WV and Ohio. Each time there was a D president, jobs up north were plentiful, and the family would relocate to OH. Then when an R came into office, his father would lose his job, and they were back to WV where they could live much more cheaply.

Notice in those graphs that each time the bar changes from red to blue the increase in average jobs...

Martinsburg area? Or Donna ferry? I know the 81 corridor too well so just curious. My buddy who runs a bank in Va (president there’s a ceo technically who preens in conferees but doesn’t “run” the bank) who took over in 2017 for a ceo who controlled the bank and died and is airline dealing with a few hundred million in outstanding non performing loans to Jim Justice they can’t bounce. ( one coal related tied to re like His ownership in the Greenbriar)

The reason it shifts form red to blue is educated workers from blue areas are migrating to cheaper col the story of the se for 40yrs were like locusts on this country

It has been too long since I talked with him to remember the exact town, but it was pretty rural where he grew up in WV. Think of somewhere nearer to Wytheville or Roanoke along I-81 in VA, but shifted N into WV...

Got it yeah I pick up 81 near wytheville form I77 just over NC border. Think you can pick up 64 off 77 which heads up to Pittsburg through WV.

WV can be pretty bucolic in areas like Falt Rock for example but it’s a mess as well. Thanks jim Justice!

[youthathletics]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

If you go to here website, its like a damned gofundme site...bombarded with donation popups .

[MDlaxfan76]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

If you go to here website, its like a damned gofundme site...bombarded with donation popups .

I can't tell you her reasons, but in general capital gains rates below regular income rates rewards capital investment (a good thing) but this reward is overwhelmingly benefiting the very most wealthy in society, including those who earn little regular income from direct work and instead merely deploy capital (or have someone do that for them). There's very little justification for that form of wealth accumulation to not be taxed the way actual work is taxed.

We can debate the merits of specific policies if you'd like, including carveouts for things like primary home and family farms, but in general I think our capital gains rates are too low. And that's coming from someone acutely aware of managing some family assets to avoid capital gains as best as possible under the rules.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

If you go to here website, its like a damned gofundme site...bombarded with donation popups .

I can't tell you her reasons, but in general capital gains rates below regular income rates rewards capital investment (a good thing) but this reward is overwhelmingly benefiting the very most wealthy in society, including those who earn little regular income from direct work and instead merely deploy capital (or have someone do that for them). There's very little justification for that form of wealth accumulation to not be taxed the way actual work is taxed.

We can debate the merits of specific policies if you'd like, including carveouts for things like primary home and family farms, but in general I think our capital gains rates are too low. And that's coming from someone acutely aware of managing some family assets to avoid capital gains as best as possible under the rules.

Carried interest as long term capital gains is even sweeter.

[youthathletics]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

If you go to here website, its like a damned gofundme site...bombarded with donation popups .

I can't tell you her reasons, but in general capital gains rates below regular income rates rewards capital investment (a good thing) but this reward is overwhelmingly benefiting the very most wealthy in society, including those who earn little regular income from direct work and instead merely deploy capital (or have someone do that for them). There's very little justification for that form of wealth accumulation to not be taxed the way actual work is taxed.

We can debate the merits of specific policies if you'd like, including carveouts for things like primary home and family farms, but in general I think our capital gains rates are too low. And that's coming from someone acutely aware of managing some family assets to avoid capital gains as best as possible under the rules.

I understand all that, but as you noted, you and those with careers that support these 'manipulative tax' issues, are already navigating the system to avoid the tax penalty, only to now have it double under her plan.

I thought I read it was for people with incomes >1mm/yearly combined, but I beleieve that was for something entirely different in her plan. Fudging income becomes an easily manipulative task and what it seems to do is fug-up everyone else that are doing things by the book, stayed in home for decades, paid it off, plan on that money being a large portion of retirement, etc-etc; the 'middle-class' that they claim they are 'for'.

[a fan]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

To slow inflation.

[youthathletics]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

To slow inflation.

So we dont need the Fed anymore?

[MDlaxfan76]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

If you go to here website, its like a damned gofundme site...bombarded with donation popups .

I can't tell you her reasons, but in general capital gains rates below regular income rates rewards capital investment (a good thing) but this reward is overwhelmingly benefiting the very most wealthy in society, including those who earn little regular income from direct work and instead merely deploy capital (or have someone do that for them). There's very little justification for that form of wealth accumulation to not be taxed the way actual work is taxed.

We can debate the merits of specific policies if you'd like, including carveouts for things like primary home and family farms, but in general I think our capital gains rates are too low. And that's coming from someone acutely aware of managing some family assets to avoid capital gains as best as possible under the rules.

I understand all that, but as you noted, you and those with careers that support these 'manipulative tax' issues, are already navigating the system to avoid the tax penalty, only to now have it double under her plan.

I thought I read it was for people with incomes >1mm/yearly combined, but I beleieve that was for something entirely different in her plan. Fudging income becomes an easily manipulative task and what it seems to do is fug-up everyone else that are doing things by the book, stayed in home for decades, paid it off, plan on that money being a large portion of retirement, etc-etc; the 'middle-class' that they claim they are 'for'.

No, that was never my career. I’m simply responsible for some family assets and am always concerned about triggering taxes, including capital gains.

[MDlaxfan76]

3% GDP growth last quarter, up from 2.8%.

This article from last spring explains the Feds view of why the US continues to outperform the rest of the world post Covid.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ ... 40517.html

[Farfromgeneva]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

If you go to here website, its like a damned gofundme site...bombarded with donation popups .

I can't tell you her reasons, but in general capital gains rates below regular income rates rewards capital investment (a good thing) but this reward is overwhelmingly benefiting the very most wealthy in society, including those who earn little regular income from direct work and instead merely deploy capital (or have someone do that for them). There's very little justification for that form of wealth accumulation to not be taxed the way actual work is taxed.

We can debate the merits of specific policies if you'd like, including carveouts for things like primary home and family farms, but in general I think our capital gains rates are too low. And that's coming from someone acutely aware of managing some family assets to avoid capital gains as best as possible under the rules.

I understand all that, but as you noted, you and those with careers that support these 'manipulative tax' issues, are already navigating the system to avoid the tax penalty, only to now have it double under her plan.

I thought I read it was for people with incomes >1mm/yearly combined, but I beleieve that was for something entirely different in her plan. Fudging income becomes an easily manipulative task and what it seems to do is fug-up everyone else that are doing things by the book, stayed in home for decades, paid it off, plan on that money being a large portion of retirement, etc-etc; the 'middle-class' that they claim they are 'for'.

Utilizing a system isn't the same thing as supporting it.

[OCanada]

A difficult concept for some to comprehend.

[youthathletics]

Can anyone explain why Kamala wants to nearly double the Long-Term Capitol Gains tax and how that impacts each and everyone of us, for instance when we go to sell a home or any other investment?

If you go to here website, its like a damned gofundme site...bombarded with donation popups .

I can't tell you her reasons, but in general capital gains rates below regular income rates rewards capital investment (a good thing) but this reward is overwhelmingly benefiting the very most wealthy in society, including those who earn little regular income from direct work and instead merely deploy capital (or have someone do that for them). There's very little justification for that form of wealth accumulation to not be taxed the way actual work is taxed.

We can debate the merits of specific policies if you'd like, including carveouts for things like primary home and family farms, but in general I think our capital gains rates are too low. And that's coming from someone acutely aware of managing some family assets to avoid capital gains as best as possible under the rules.

I understand all that, but as you noted, you and those with careers that support these 'manipulative tax' issues, are already navigating the system to avoid the tax penalty, only to now have it double under her plan.

I thought I read it was for people with incomes >1mm/yearly combined, but I beleieve that was for something entirely different in her plan. Fudging income becomes an easily manipulative task and what it seems to do is fug-up everyone else that are doing things by the book, stayed in home for decades, paid it off, plan on that money being a large portion of retirement, etc-etc; the 'middle-class' that they claim they are 'for'.

Utilizing a system isn't the same thing as supporting it.

I am quite aware...I deal with this daily. Which argues the point further. The ramifications of her plan has the potential for significant unintended consequences of major businesses wanting to continue to business here.