The Nation's Financial Condition

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a fan
Posts: 19510
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:09 pm
PizzaSnake wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 1:05 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 12:14 pm Freebie for the a anti semites because the reason this is happening is a lot of fraud in gas multifamily lending over the years but specifically a very Hasidic shop out in nYC that are just terrible folks I’ve dealt with personally enough called meridian capital-they lie like crazy and have zero repast for rules or anything and just get their money. Was a matter of time.

Why correspondent license holders for agencies need to rely on brokers is another question (layering fees) but that’s a market issue broadly in CRE finance.

(Obviously true and there aren’t a cohort specific but this shop meridian I’m pretty sure downs have a single gentile working there and hires kids and makes them bang phones straight out of their barmitsvahs basically)

Someone who doesn’t know all of this will surely tell me I’m being prejudicial to something but there’s at least one cat who’s got a family member in CRE institutionally who can check and I get will confirm My comments on this shop.

Move comes as federal regulators and prosecutors step up efforts to root out commercial mortgage fraud
Gina HeebAug. 5, 2024 at 5:30 am

Additionally, lenders could face tougher requirements for confirming whether a property borrower has adequate cash and verifying their source of funds.

The new rules might also require lenders to complete due diligence on the appraised value of a property, by evaluating its financial performance, for example, these people said.

Under the current system, lenders are able to take a more hands-off approach when it comes to borrower and property financials. They face incentives to trust the figures they are sent, rather than pursuing expensive audits or risking losing clients to too much red tape.

Fannie and Freddie declined to comment. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the two entities, also declined to comment.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What steps should regulators take to address mortgage fraud in the commercial-property market? Join the conversation below.

Fannie and Freddie, which are backed by the government, purchase and securitize a huge portion of loans in the U.S. residential and commercial mortgage market. The two entities together owned or guaranteed roughly 40% of the $2.2 trillion in multifamily mortgage debt as of September 2023, according to estimates from their latest annual filings.

The new multifamily rules, which could be rolled out as early as this summer, are in early stages and could still change, these people said. If they are enacted, they would represent some of the biggest recent changes in the way Fannie and Freddie monitor these loans.

Apartment-building and other commercial-property prices surged to new highs in the years before the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates, leading to a flurry of loans based on doctored financials and valuations, federal investigators and real-estate brokers say.

More of these fraudulent mortgage schemes have been exposed since 2022, when sharply higher interest rates led to significant declines in commercial-property prices.

Now, federal prosecutors are increasing their efforts to root out fraud, often working together with investigators at the FHFA’s Office of Inspector General, according to court records and people familiar with the matter.

Newsletter Sign-up

Real Estate

A weekly briefing of the biggest commercial deals, news, analysis and trends in office, multifamily, retail and other commercial sectors.

The crackdown is already rippling through the multifamily industry. Freddie has started to require borrowers to submit rent receipts, while Fannie has begun to go through loans to look for doctored financials, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

Tighter lending rules could slow deal activity. To be effective, according to industry participants and investigators, rules would have to cover a number of different avenues of the market where fraud can occur. The real-estate schemes that recently came to light involved everything from fudged income statements to faked property sales at inflated prices.

Fannie and Freddie effectively blacklisted Meridian Capital Group, along with other brokerage firms, after allegations that its brokers falsified client financials to get bigger loans.

Meridian has since sought to build and implement a risk and control framework, largely from scratch, that could require periodic backtests and board approval for deals of a certain size.

One major commercial-property lender, Berkadia, recently pulled back on new deals with brokers, people familiar with the matter said.

In a statement, Berkadia said it would “continue to focus on direct business” and use “reputable brokers for loans on a case-by-case basis.”

Write to Gina Heeb at [email protected]

Crisis in Commercial Real Estate

The pandemic emptied out office buildings. Here is how the WSJ is covering the ripple effects.
To borrow a phrase, “the sugar high” of easy money is wearing off, resulting in some issues, some of which you’e noted in this post and others: fintech, commercial real estate, and, my favorite: service on the national debt.

Apart from just “turning the tap” back on like a fresh keg at a frat party, what could/should be done? Like the intractable Gordian knot of the Israel/Palestine conflict, this is NOT a new situation.

So, let’s start at the top:

Boost money supply? (Continue business as usual.)

Preside over the disruption that is beginning to reverberate through the economy and society? A new, “world-class” Argentina?

Given the history of the past 44-odd years, my money is on our “leaders” choosing door number 1.

Dragons await behind door 2.
We can’t we have to reduce money supply as it got way too high up to $3.3Tn in Covid and working it down. We need to take our medicine liek the wild tough guys we pretend to be here
Oh, I'm on board as you know!
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23808
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

a fan wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:48 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:09 pm
PizzaSnake wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 1:05 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 12:14 pm Freebie for the a anti semites because the reason this is happening is a lot of fraud in gas multifamily lending over the years but specifically a very Hasidic shop out in nYC that are just terrible folks I’ve dealt with personally enough called meridian capital-they lie like crazy and have zero repast for rules or anything and just get their money. Was a matter of time.

Why correspondent license holders for agencies need to rely on brokers is another question (layering fees) but that’s a market issue broadly in CRE finance.

(Obviously true and there aren’t a cohort specific but this shop meridian I’m pretty sure downs have a single gentile working there and hires kids and makes them bang phones straight out of their barmitsvahs basically)

Someone who doesn’t know all of this will surely tell me I’m being prejudicial to something but there’s at least one cat who’s got a family member in CRE institutionally who can check and I get will confirm My comments on this shop.

Move comes as federal regulators and prosecutors step up efforts to root out commercial mortgage fraud
Gina HeebAug. 5, 2024 at 5:30 am

Additionally, lenders could face tougher requirements for confirming whether a property borrower has adequate cash and verifying their source of funds.

The new rules might also require lenders to complete due diligence on the appraised value of a property, by evaluating its financial performance, for example, these people said.

Under the current system, lenders are able to take a more hands-off approach when it comes to borrower and property financials. They face incentives to trust the figures they are sent, rather than pursuing expensive audits or risking losing clients to too much red tape.

Fannie and Freddie declined to comment. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the two entities, also declined to comment.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What steps should regulators take to address mortgage fraud in the commercial-property market? Join the conversation below.

Fannie and Freddie, which are backed by the government, purchase and securitize a huge portion of loans in the U.S. residential and commercial mortgage market. The two entities together owned or guaranteed roughly 40% of the $2.2 trillion in multifamily mortgage debt as of September 2023, according to estimates from their latest annual filings.

The new multifamily rules, which could be rolled out as early as this summer, are in early stages and could still change, these people said. If they are enacted, they would represent some of the biggest recent changes in the way Fannie and Freddie monitor these loans.

Apartment-building and other commercial-property prices surged to new highs in the years before the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates, leading to a flurry of loans based on doctored financials and valuations, federal investigators and real-estate brokers say.

More of these fraudulent mortgage schemes have been exposed since 2022, when sharply higher interest rates led to significant declines in commercial-property prices.

Now, federal prosecutors are increasing their efforts to root out fraud, often working together with investigators at the FHFA’s Office of Inspector General, according to court records and people familiar with the matter.

Newsletter Sign-up

Real Estate

A weekly briefing of the biggest commercial deals, news, analysis and trends in office, multifamily, retail and other commercial sectors.

The crackdown is already rippling through the multifamily industry. Freddie has started to require borrowers to submit rent receipts, while Fannie has begun to go through loans to look for doctored financials, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

Tighter lending rules could slow deal activity. To be effective, according to industry participants and investigators, rules would have to cover a number of different avenues of the market where fraud can occur. The real-estate schemes that recently came to light involved everything from fudged income statements to faked property sales at inflated prices.

Fannie and Freddie effectively blacklisted Meridian Capital Group, along with other brokerage firms, after allegations that its brokers falsified client financials to get bigger loans.

Meridian has since sought to build and implement a risk and control framework, largely from scratch, that could require periodic backtests and board approval for deals of a certain size.

One major commercial-property lender, Berkadia, recently pulled back on new deals with brokers, people familiar with the matter said.

In a statement, Berkadia said it would “continue to focus on direct business” and use “reputable brokers for loans on a case-by-case basis.”

Write to Gina Heeb at [email protected]

Crisis in Commercial Real Estate

The pandemic emptied out office buildings. Here is how the WSJ is covering the ripple effects.
To borrow a phrase, “the sugar high” of easy money is wearing off, resulting in some issues, some of which you’e noted in this post and others: fintech, commercial real estate, and, my favorite: service on the national debt.

Apart from just “turning the tap” back on like a fresh keg at a frat party, what could/should be done? Like the intractable Gordian knot of the Israel/Palestine conflict, this is NOT a new situation.

So, let’s start at the top:

Boost money supply? (Continue business as usual.)

Preside over the disruption that is beginning to reverberate through the economy and society? A new, “world-class” Argentina?

Given the history of the past 44-odd years, my money is on our “leaders” choosing door number 1.

Dragons await behind door 2.
We can’t we have to reduce money supply as it got way too high up to $3.3Tn in Covid and working it down. We need to take our medicine liek the wild tough guys we pretend to be here
Oh, I'm on board as you know!
Every time I look at this chart it sickens me

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTRESNS
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
PizzaSnake
Posts: 5289
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by PizzaSnake »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:51 pm
a fan wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:48 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:09 pm
PizzaSnake wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 1:05 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 12:14 pm Freebie for the a anti semites because the reason this is happening is a lot of fraud in gas multifamily lending over the years but specifically a very Hasidic shop out in nYC that are just terrible folks I’ve dealt with personally enough called meridian capital-they lie like crazy and have zero repast for rules or anything and just get their money. Was a matter of time.

Why correspondent license holders for agencies need to rely on brokers is another question (layering fees) but that’s a market issue broadly in CRE finance.

(Obviously true and there aren’t a cohort specific but this shop meridian I’m pretty sure downs have a single gentile working there and hires kids and makes them bang phones straight out of their barmitsvahs basically)

Someone who doesn’t know all of this will surely tell me I’m being prejudicial to something but there’s at least one cat who’s got a family member in CRE institutionally who can check and I get will confirm My comments on this shop.

Move comes as federal regulators and prosecutors step up efforts to root out commercial mortgage fraud
Gina HeebAug. 5, 2024 at 5:30 am

Additionally, lenders could face tougher requirements for confirming whether a property borrower has adequate cash and verifying their source of funds.

The new rules might also require lenders to complete due diligence on the appraised value of a property, by evaluating its financial performance, for example, these people said.

Under the current system, lenders are able to take a more hands-off approach when it comes to borrower and property financials. They face incentives to trust the figures they are sent, rather than pursuing expensive audits or risking losing clients to too much red tape.

Fannie and Freddie declined to comment. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the two entities, also declined to comment.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What steps should regulators take to address mortgage fraud in the commercial-property market? Join the conversation below.

Fannie and Freddie, which are backed by the government, purchase and securitize a huge portion of loans in the U.S. residential and commercial mortgage market. The two entities together owned or guaranteed roughly 40% of the $2.2 trillion in multifamily mortgage debt as of September 2023, according to estimates from their latest annual filings.

The new multifamily rules, which could be rolled out as early as this summer, are in early stages and could still change, these people said. If they are enacted, they would represent some of the biggest recent changes in the way Fannie and Freddie monitor these loans.

Apartment-building and other commercial-property prices surged to new highs in the years before the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates, leading to a flurry of loans based on doctored financials and valuations, federal investigators and real-estate brokers say.

More of these fraudulent mortgage schemes have been exposed since 2022, when sharply higher interest rates led to significant declines in commercial-property prices.

Now, federal prosecutors are increasing their efforts to root out fraud, often working together with investigators at the FHFA’s Office of Inspector General, according to court records and people familiar with the matter.

Newsletter Sign-up

Real Estate

A weekly briefing of the biggest commercial deals, news, analysis and trends in office, multifamily, retail and other commercial sectors.

The crackdown is already rippling through the multifamily industry. Freddie has started to require borrowers to submit rent receipts, while Fannie has begun to go through loans to look for doctored financials, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

Tighter lending rules could slow deal activity. To be effective, according to industry participants and investigators, rules would have to cover a number of different avenues of the market where fraud can occur. The real-estate schemes that recently came to light involved everything from fudged income statements to faked property sales at inflated prices.

Fannie and Freddie effectively blacklisted Meridian Capital Group, along with other brokerage firms, after allegations that its brokers falsified client financials to get bigger loans.

Meridian has since sought to build and implement a risk and control framework, largely from scratch, that could require periodic backtests and board approval for deals of a certain size.

One major commercial-property lender, Berkadia, recently pulled back on new deals with brokers, people familiar with the matter said.

In a statement, Berkadia said it would “continue to focus on direct business” and use “reputable brokers for loans on a case-by-case basis.”

Write to Gina Heeb at [email protected]

Crisis in Commercial Real Estate

The pandemic emptied out office buildings. Here is how the WSJ is covering the ripple effects.
To borrow a phrase, “the sugar high” of easy money is wearing off, resulting in some issues, some of which you’e noted in this post and others: fintech, commercial real estate, and, my favorite: service on the national debt.

Apart from just “turning the tap” back on like a fresh keg at a frat party, what could/should be done? Like the intractable Gordian knot of the Israel/Palestine conflict, this is NOT a new situation.

So, let’s start at the top:

Boost money supply? (Continue business as usual.)

Preside over the disruption that is beginning to reverberate through the economy and society? A new, “world-class” Argentina?

Given the history of the past 44-odd years, my money is on our “leaders” choosing door number 1.

Dragons await behind door 2.
We can’t we have to reduce money supply as it got way too high up to $3.3Tn in Covid and working it down. We need to take our medicine liek the wild tough guys we pretend to be here
Oh, I'm on board as you know!
Every time I look at this chart it sickens me

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTRESNS
“ Born in a home with no silver spoon
I’m drinking champagne like a good tycoon”

"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
KI Dock Bar
Posts: 144
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:23 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by KI Dock Bar »

To my finance friends, what does this mean:

Consumer spending remains strong as a mountain of credit card debt continues to pile up, with Americans increasingly turning to plastic to fund their purchases. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card debt reached $1.14T in Q2, up 5.8% from a year earlier, or about $6,500 per person. While the steadily rising figure took a break during the pandemic years, it has soared since 2022 as many consumers swipe away to counter their dwindling purchasing power.

Driving the spike: While inflation growth has come down from record highs, price tags on nearly every item are still elevated compared to where they were several years ago. That has made portions of the population reliant on credit cards to finance purchases of everyday goods and services, increasing non-discretionary balances and making it more challenging to pay down debt. A resumption of student loan repayments has also contributed to the increase, especially for millennials and Gen Z, while others may be having a harder time paring back their lifestyles despite the price pressures.

Interest rates haven't made the issue any better, with the average annual percentage rate now over 20%, making it a really costly debt for consumers. It's also higher than any point since the Fed started tracking card APRs in 1994, contributing to the overall U.S. household debt that topped $17.8T in Q2. Meanwhile, credit card delinquency rates are on the rise, with 9.1% of credit card balances transitioning into delinquency as of June, up from 8.5% the previous quarter.

What's next? While markets grew fearful after the latest employment figures on Friday, a recession has not appeared yet, in part due to strong consumer spending. Swiping plastic could keep up if the Fed starts cutting rates, starting with an easing cycle that's likely to begin at the next FOMC meeting in September. The Biden administration is also trying to help out the sector by capping credit card late fees.
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 27053
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

KI Dock Bar wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2024 6:14 pm To my finance friends, what does this mean:

Consumer spending remains strong as a mountain of credit card debt continues to pile up, with Americans increasingly turning to plastic to fund their purchases. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card debt reached $1.14T in Q2, up 5.8% from a year earlier, or about $6,500 per person. While the steadily rising figure took a break during the pandemic years, it has soared since 2022 as many consumers swipe away to counter their dwindling purchasing power.

Driving the spike: While inflation growth has come down from record highs, price tags on nearly every item are still elevated compared to where they were several years ago. That has made portions of the population reliant on credit cards to finance purchases of everyday goods and services, increasing non-discretionary balances and making it more challenging to pay down debt. A resumption of student loan repayments has also contributed to the increase, especially for millennials and Gen Z, while others may be having a harder time paring back their lifestyles despite the price pressures.

Interest rates haven't made the issue any better, with the average annual percentage rate now over 20%, making it a really costly debt for consumers. It's also higher than any point since the Fed started tracking card APRs in 1994, contributing to the overall U.S. household debt that topped $17.8T in Q2. Meanwhile, credit card delinquency rates are on the rise, with 9.1% of credit card balances transitioning into delinquency as of June, up from 8.5% the previous quarter.

What's next? While markets grew fearful after the latest employment figures on Friday, a recession has not appeared yet, in part due to strong consumer spending. Swiping plastic could keep up if the Fed starts cutting rates, starting with an easing cycle that's likely to begin at the next FOMC meeting in September. The Biden administration is also trying to help out the sector by capping credit card late fees.
Seems to me that consumers paid down their debt a lot during the pandemic, in large part due to pandemic support of various sorts, and some help with student loans, and are now resuming their prior behaviors of using more debt to consume. The problem with that is that interest rates are much higher than a generation of young people have ever experienced, so that's pinching as well.

Youth will argue, pretty rationally at least for individuals, that we should cut back on over consumption and value the longevity of our goods more, and appreciate non tangibles in our lives much more.

I think in macro terms that it is likely to mean that as the runway runs out for increasing consumer debt loads, we'll see recession pressures...on the other hand, the Fed will start to lower rates, so at least somewhat less pinch.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23808
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

PizzaSnake wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 7:05 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:51 pm
a fan wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:48 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:09 pm
PizzaSnake wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 1:05 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Mon Aug 05, 2024 12:14 pm Freebie for the a anti semites because the reason this is happening is a lot of fraud in gas multifamily lending over the years but specifically a very Hasidic shop out in nYC that are just terrible folks I’ve dealt with personally enough called meridian capital-they lie like crazy and have zero repast for rules or anything and just get their money. Was a matter of time.

Why correspondent license holders for agencies need to rely on brokers is another question (layering fees) but that’s a market issue broadly in CRE finance.

(Obviously true and there aren’t a cohort specific but this shop meridian I’m pretty sure downs have a single gentile working there and hires kids and makes them bang phones straight out of their barmitsvahs basically)

Someone who doesn’t know all of this will surely tell me I’m being prejudicial to something but there’s at least one cat who’s got a family member in CRE institutionally who can check and I get will confirm My comments on this shop.

Move comes as federal regulators and prosecutors step up efforts to root out commercial mortgage fraud
Gina HeebAug. 5, 2024 at 5:30 am

Additionally, lenders could face tougher requirements for confirming whether a property borrower has adequate cash and verifying their source of funds.

The new rules might also require lenders to complete due diligence on the appraised value of a property, by evaluating its financial performance, for example, these people said.

Under the current system, lenders are able to take a more hands-off approach when it comes to borrower and property financials. They face incentives to trust the figures they are sent, rather than pursuing expensive audits or risking losing clients to too much red tape.

Fannie and Freddie declined to comment. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the two entities, also declined to comment.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What steps should regulators take to address mortgage fraud in the commercial-property market? Join the conversation below.

Fannie and Freddie, which are backed by the government, purchase and securitize a huge portion of loans in the U.S. residential and commercial mortgage market. The two entities together owned or guaranteed roughly 40% of the $2.2 trillion in multifamily mortgage debt as of September 2023, according to estimates from their latest annual filings.

The new multifamily rules, which could be rolled out as early as this summer, are in early stages and could still change, these people said. If they are enacted, they would represent some of the biggest recent changes in the way Fannie and Freddie monitor these loans.

Apartment-building and other commercial-property prices surged to new highs in the years before the Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates, leading to a flurry of loans based on doctored financials and valuations, federal investigators and real-estate brokers say.

More of these fraudulent mortgage schemes have been exposed since 2022, when sharply higher interest rates led to significant declines in commercial-property prices.

Now, federal prosecutors are increasing their efforts to root out fraud, often working together with investigators at the FHFA’s Office of Inspector General, according to court records and people familiar with the matter.

Newsletter Sign-up

Real Estate

A weekly briefing of the biggest commercial deals, news, analysis and trends in office, multifamily, retail and other commercial sectors.

The crackdown is already rippling through the multifamily industry. Freddie has started to require borrowers to submit rent receipts, while Fannie has begun to go through loans to look for doctored financials, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

Tighter lending rules could slow deal activity. To be effective, according to industry participants and investigators, rules would have to cover a number of different avenues of the market where fraud can occur. The real-estate schemes that recently came to light involved everything from fudged income statements to faked property sales at inflated prices.

Fannie and Freddie effectively blacklisted Meridian Capital Group, along with other brokerage firms, after allegations that its brokers falsified client financials to get bigger loans.

Meridian has since sought to build and implement a risk and control framework, largely from scratch, that could require periodic backtests and board approval for deals of a certain size.

One major commercial-property lender, Berkadia, recently pulled back on new deals with brokers, people familiar with the matter said.

In a statement, Berkadia said it would “continue to focus on direct business” and use “reputable brokers for loans on a case-by-case basis.”

Write to Gina Heeb at [email protected]

Crisis in Commercial Real Estate

The pandemic emptied out office buildings. Here is how the WSJ is covering the ripple effects.
To borrow a phrase, “the sugar high” of easy money is wearing off, resulting in some issues, some of which you’e noted in this post and others: fintech, commercial real estate, and, my favorite: service on the national debt.

Apart from just “turning the tap” back on like a fresh keg at a frat party, what could/should be done? Like the intractable Gordian knot of the Israel/Palestine conflict, this is NOT a new situation.

So, let’s start at the top:

Boost money supply? (Continue business as usual.)

Preside over the disruption that is beginning to reverberate through the economy and society? A new, “world-class” Argentina?

Given the history of the past 44-odd years, my money is on our “leaders” choosing door number 1.

Dragons await behind door 2.
We can’t we have to reduce money supply as it got way too high up to $3.3Tn in Covid and working it down. We need to take our medicine liek the wild tough guys we pretend to be here
Oh, I'm on board as you know!
Every time I look at this chart it sickens me

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTRESNS
“ Born in a home with no silver spoon
I’m drinking champagne like a good tycoon”

Good pull. I have listened to echoes live at Pompeii each of th least four nights all 27 min of ti.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23808
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

KI Dock Bar wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2024 6:14 pm To my finance friends, what does this mean:

Consumer spending remains strong as a mountain of credit card debt continues to pile up, with Americans increasingly turning to plastic to fund their purchases. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card debt reached $1.14T in Q2, up 5.8% from a year earlier, or about $6,500 per person. While the steadily rising figure took a break during the pandemic years, it has soared since 2022 as many consumers swipe away to counter their dwindling purchasing power.

Driving the spike: While inflation growth has come down from record highs, price tags on nearly every item are still elevated compared to where they were several years ago. That has made portions of the population reliant on credit cards to finance purchases of everyday goods and services, increasing non-discretionary balances and making it more challenging to pay down debt. A resumption of student loan repayments has also contributed to the increase, especially for millennials and Gen Z, while others may be having a harder time paring back their lifestyles despite the price pressures.

Interest rates haven't made the issue any better, with the average annual percentage rate now over 20%, making it a really costly debt for consumers. It's also higher than any point since the Fed started tracking card APRs in 1994, contributing to the overall U.S. household debt that topped $17.8T in Q2. Meanwhile, credit card delinquency rates are on the rise, with 9.1% of credit card balances transitioning into delinquency as of June, up from 8.5% the previous quarter.

What's next? While markets grew fearful after the latest employment figures on Friday, a recession has not appeared yet, in part due to strong consumer spending. Swiping plastic could keep up if the Fed starts cutting rates, starting with an easing cycle that's likely to begin at the next FOMC meeting in September. The Biden administration is also trying to help out the sector by capping credit card late fees.
People are spending beyond their means. And that’s mostly not counting the fact that after 42 months student loan repayments started last Nov with many not among The first payment. They lived up to budgets without the payments we paused during Covid. Further research shows excess Covid driven savings (still) was depleted in the last two months. Ie it’s only going to get worse unless folks get serious and start living within their means.

Check this out if you have a minute

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
User avatar
Brooklyn
Posts: 10254
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:16 am
Location: St Paul, Minnesota

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Brooklyn »

Wall Street rallies to its best day since 2022 on encouraging unemployment data; S&P 500 jumps 2.3%

https://apnews.com/article/stocks-marke ... 1c7998decf


U.S. stocks rallied Thursday in Wall Street’s latest sharp swerve after a better-than-expected report on unemployment eased worries about the slowing economy.

The S&P 500 jumped 2.3% for its best day since 2022 and shaved off all but 0.5% of its loss from what was a brutal start to the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 683 points, or 1.8%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 2.9% as Nvidia and other Big Tech stocks helped lead the way.

Treasury yields also climbed in the bond market in a signal investors are feeling less worried about the economy after a report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week. The number was better than economists expected.

It was exactly a week ago that worse-than-expected data on unemployment claims helped enflame worries that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at too high of an economy-slowing level for too long in order to beat inflation. That helped send markets reeling, along with a rate hike by the Bank of Japan that sent shockwaves worldwide by scrambling a favorite trade among some hedge funds.

At the worst of it, at least so far, the S&P 500 was down nearly 10% from its all-time high set last month. Such drops are regular occurrences on Wall Street, and “corrections” of 10% happen roughly every year or two. After Thursday’s jump, the index is back within about 6% of its record ... In the meantime, big U.S. companies continue to turn in profit reports for the spring that are mostly better than analysts expected.

Eli Lilly jumped 9.5% to help lead the market after it delivered stronger profit and revenue than Wall Street had forecast. Sales of its Mounjaro diabetes treatment and its Zepbound weight-loss counterpart are booming, and the company raised its financial forecast for the year.

Big Tech stocks also rose to claw back some of their sharp losses from the last month ...

more ...


Reduced inflation, more jobs created, no recession. This in contrast to the economy under the Republicans.
It has been proven a hundred times that the surest way to the heart of any man, black or white, honest or dishonest, is through justice and fairness.

Charles Francis "Socker" Coe, Esq
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23808
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Cheerleading and uninformed. What’s the point of that post? So goofy. Impotent anger.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
User avatar
Brooklyn
Posts: 10254
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:16 am
Location: St Paul, Minnesota

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Brooklyn »

^ projection, and gaslighting with no effort to refute, again
It has been proven a hundred times that the surest way to the heart of any man, black or white, honest or dishonest, is through justice and fairness.

Charles Francis "Socker" Coe, Esq
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23808
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Symptom of the self (country) created problem I’ve been saying which many of you old timers object to and take personally.

Boomers Buying Houses Had It Bad in the ’80s. Millennials Have It Worse.
By Nicole Friedman and Alana Pipe
Aug. 11, 2024 at 5:30 am ET
The housing affordability index shows whether the typical family...


...earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced single-family home...

...or doesn't earn enough to qualify.

Today’s housing market is the most difficult in decades, a great frustration for millennials and Gen Zers looking for a starter home. Baby boomers can relate.

Home-buying affordability dropped last fall to the lowest level since September 1985, and it fell near that level again in June. In 1985, when Ronald Reagan was president and Microsoft launched Windows 1.0, millions of Americans of the baby boomer generation were in their late 20s and early 30s, the prime first-time home-buying years. They also found themselves priced out of the market.

But because buyers in the mid-1980s had much more housing supply available, homes became more affordable as mortgage rates fell in subsequent years.

First-time home buyers these days have it considerably harder. While affordability is likely to improve by the end of the year if borrowing rates ease and inventory continues to grow, it won’t get significantly better for home buyers without a lot more home building, economists say.

Then and now

The National Association of Realtors’ affordability metric incorporates median single-family existing-home prices, mortgage rates and median family incomes. Even though it is roughly the same today as in the mid-1980s, the drivers of the housing market and consumer sentiments are nothing alike.

In the mid-1980s, home prices weren’t unusually high relative to incomes. It was the mortgage rate, which soared above 18% in 1981 and held above 10% for most of the decade, that frustrated buyers.

Mortgage rates currently sit just below 6.5%, according to Freddie Mac, which is more than double where they stood in 2021 but below the long-term average level since 1971. But home prices are much higher, having soared more than 50% since 2019.

Mortgage rates rose rapidly in the late 1970s as the Federal Reserve increased short-term rates to slow inflation. After home-buying affordability hit a record low in 1981, home sales slumped. But median existing-home prices, which aren’t adjusted for inflation, kept rising on an annual basis, according to NAR.

Affordability improved after 1981 as inflation got under control and mortgage rates declined. That is a key difference from today: Home buyers in 1985 were more optimistic than they are today, because affordability had improved from a few years earlier.

In September 1985, 72% of consumers said it was a good time to buy a home, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. In June 2024, just 12% said the same.

Consumer Sentiment Survey

“Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?"


In 1982 15% of people surveyed said that it was a good time to buy a house

12% of people felt that way in June this year

Affordability has dramatically worsened compared with recent years, when mortgage rates fell to record lows during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In January 2021, a family needed income of $49,152 to afford the median-priced single-family home with a 20% down payment, according to NAR’s affordability index. In June 2024, the family would need an income of $110,544 to make the same purchase.

Other costs associated with homeownership, including property taxes and home insurance, have also risen.

Existing-home sales slid in 2023 to the lowest level since 1995 and have held at low levels in the first half of 2024.

Typical buyers

Another sign that the housing market was easier in the mid-1980s is that home buyers were younger.

The typical first-time home buyer in 1984 was 29 years old, according to a NAR survey conducted at the time. In NAR’s 2023 survey, the median first-time home buyer age was 35.

Millennials, who represent many of today’s first-time buyers, are getting married and having children later in life than prior generations. Three-fourths of first-time buyers in 1984 were married couples and about half had children. In the 2023 survey, 52% of first-time buyers were married couples and 36% had children.

Almost 60% of baby boomers were homeowners at age 33, compared with about 40% of millennials at the same age, according to an analysis by Victoria Gregory, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Millennials are catching up as they get older, and many jumped into the market during the pandemic-era housing boom. About 55% of millennials were homeowners in 2023, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin.

Buyers in the 1980s also took advantage of loans that helped them evade high mortgage rates. Just over half of conventional single-family mortgages originated in 1985 had adjustable rates, which have historically had lower upfront rates than fixed-rate loans, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

ARMs today aren’t as appealing to buyers. ARMs made up 5.6% of mortgage originations in the first five months of 2024, according to Intercontinental Exchange.

It was also easier to get a below-market rate in the 1980s by taking over someone else’s loan.

Buyers today benefit from a broader array of down-payment assistance programs, real-estate agents say.

But policy changes put in place after the 2008 financial crisis have made lending standards stricter. That makes it less likely that there will be another large foreclosure crisis. It also makes it harder for some potential homeowners to enter the market.

A lack of supply

In the 1980s, home-buying affordability improved as mortgage rates declined. That same solution won’t be as simple today, economists say, because the low supply of homes is expected to keep prices high.

New-home construction plunged during the financial crisis and took years to recover. Home builders built 1.4 million units last year, compared with 1.7 million units in 1985, according to Census Bureau data. And shipments of manufactured homes, one of the most affordable types of housing, stood just under 90,000 last year, down from more than 280,000 in 1985.

On top of the overall shortage, many homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates in recent years are opting not to move.

Inventory has started to rise in recent months, especially in the new-construction market. But the total supply of new and existing single-family homes for sale in June was still 12.5% below the average level from 2017 to 2019.

Chart showing the inventory of single family homes for sale declining over time next to a chart showing the U.S. population steadily increasing.
U.S. inventory of single-family homes for sale

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

When did you buy your first home? Do you think it’s easier or harder for first-time home buyers today? Join the conversation below.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [email protected] and Alana Pipe at [email protected]
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
CU88a
Posts: 377
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2023 6:51 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by CU88a »

KI Dock Bar wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2024 6:14 pm To my finance friends, what does this mean:

Consumer spending remains strong as a mountain of credit card debt continues to pile up, with Americans increasingly turning to plastic to fund their purchases. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card debt reached $1.14T in Q2, up 5.8% from a year earlier, or about $6,500 per person. While the steadily rising figure took a break during the pandemic years, it has soared since 2022 as many consumers swipe away to counter their dwindling purchasing power.

Driving the spike: While inflation growth has come down from record highs, price tags on nearly every item are still elevated compared to where they were several years ago. That has made portions of the population reliant on credit cards to finance purchases of everyday goods and services, increasing non-discretionary balances and making it more challenging to pay down debt. A resumption of student loan repayments has also contributed to the increase, especially for millennials and Gen Z, while others may be having a harder time paring back their lifestyles despite the price pressures.

Interest rates haven't made the issue any better, with the average annual percentage rate now over 20%, making it a really costly debt for consumers. It's also higher than any point since the Fed started tracking card APRs in 1994, contributing to the overall U.S. household debt that topped $17.8T in Q2. Meanwhile, credit card delinquency rates are on the rise, with 9.1% of credit card balances transitioning into delinquency as of June, up from 8.5% the previous quarter.

What's next? While markets grew fearful after the latest employment figures on Friday, a recession has not appeared yet, in part due to strong consumer spending. Swiping plastic could keep up if the Fed starts cutting rates, starting with an easing cycle that's likely to begin at the next FOMC meeting in September. The Biden administration is also trying to help out the sector by capping credit card late fees.
Source?
KI Dock Bar
Posts: 144
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:23 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by KI Dock Bar »

CU88a wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 12:44 pm
KI Dock Bar wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2024 6:14 pm To my finance friends, what does this mean:

Consumer spending remains strong as a mountain of credit card debt continues to pile up, with Americans increasingly turning to plastic to fund their purchases. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card debt reached $1.14T in Q2, up 5.8% from a year earlier, or about $6,500 per person. While the steadily rising figure took a break during the pandemic years, it has soared since 2022 as many consumers swipe away to counter their dwindling purchasing power.

Driving the spike: While inflation growth has come down from record highs, price tags on nearly every item are still elevated compared to where they were several years ago. That has made portions of the population reliant on credit cards to finance purchases of everyday goods and services, increasing non-discretionary balances and making it more challenging to pay down debt. A resumption of student loan repayments has also contributed to the increase, especially for millennials and Gen Z, while others may be having a harder time paring back their lifestyles despite the price pressures.

Interest rates haven't made the issue any better, with the average annual percentage rate now over 20%, making it a really costly debt for consumers. It's also higher than any point since the Fed started tracking card APRs in 1994, contributing to the overall U.S. household debt that topped $17.8T in Q2. Meanwhile, credit card delinquency rates are on the rise, with 9.1% of credit card balances transitioning into delinquency as of June, up from 8.5% the previous quarter.

What's next? While markets grew fearful after the latest employment figures on Friday, a recession has not appeared yet, in part due to strong consumer spending. Swiping plastic could keep up if the Fed starts cutting rates, starting with an easing cycle that's likely to begin at the next FOMC meeting in September. The Biden administration is also trying to help out the sector by capping credit card late fees.
Source?
Barron's Daily
KI Dock Bar
Posts: 144
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:23 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by KI Dock Bar »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 11:33 am Symptom of the self (country) created problem I’ve been saying which many of you old timers object to and take personally.

Boomers Buying Houses Had It Bad in the ’80s. Millennials Have It Worse.
By Nicole Friedman and Alana Pipe
Aug. 11, 2024 at 5:30 am ET
The housing affordability index shows whether the typical family...


...earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced single-family home...

...or doesn't earn enough to qualify.

Today’s housing market is the most difficult in decades, a great frustration for millennials and Gen Zers looking for a starter home. Baby boomers can relate.

Home-buying affordability dropped last fall to the lowest level since September 1985, and it fell near that level again in June. In 1985, when Ronald Reagan was president and Microsoft launched Windows 1.0, millions of Americans of the baby boomer generation were in their late 20s and early 30s, the prime first-time home-buying years. They also found themselves priced out of the market.

But because buyers in the mid-1980s had much more housing supply available, homes became more affordable as mortgage rates fell in subsequent years.

First-time home buyers these days have it considerably harder. While affordability is likely to improve by the end of the year if borrowing rates ease and inventory continues to grow, it won’t get significantly better for home buyers without a lot more home building, economists say.

Then and now

The National Association of Realtors’ affordability metric incorporates median single-family existing-home prices, mortgage rates and median family incomes. Even though it is roughly the same today as in the mid-1980s, the drivers of the housing market and consumer sentiments are nothing alike.

In the mid-1980s, home prices weren’t unusually high relative to incomes. It was the mortgage rate, which soared above 18% in 1981 and held above 10% for most of the decade, that frustrated buyers.

Mortgage rates currently sit just below 6.5%, according to Freddie Mac, which is more than double where they stood in 2021 but below the long-term average level since 1971. But home prices are much higher, having soared more than 50% since 2019.

Mortgage rates rose rapidly in the late 1970s as the Federal Reserve increased short-term rates to slow inflation. After home-buying affordability hit a record low in 1981, home sales slumped. But median existing-home prices, which aren’t adjusted for inflation, kept rising on an annual basis, according to NAR.

Affordability improved after 1981 as inflation got under control and mortgage rates declined. That is a key difference from today: Home buyers in 1985 were more optimistic than they are today, because affordability had improved from a few years earlier.

In September 1985, 72% of consumers said it was a good time to buy a home, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. In June 2024, just 12% said the same.

Consumer Sentiment Survey

“Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?"


In 1982 15% of people surveyed said that it was a good time to buy a house

12% of people felt that way in June this year

Affordability has dramatically worsened compared with recent years, when mortgage rates fell to record lows during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In January 2021, a family needed income of $49,152 to afford the median-priced single-family home with a 20% down payment, according to NAR’s affordability index. In June 2024, the family would need an income of $110,544 to make the same purchase.

Other costs associated with homeownership, including property taxes and home insurance, have also risen.

Existing-home sales slid in 2023 to the lowest level since 1995 and have held at low levels in the first half of 2024.

Typical buyers

Another sign that the housing market was easier in the mid-1980s is that home buyers were younger.

The typical first-time home buyer in 1984 was 29 years old, according to a NAR survey conducted at the time. In NAR’s 2023 survey, the median first-time home buyer age was 35.

Millennials, who represent many of today’s first-time buyers, are getting married and having children later in life than prior generations. Three-fourths of first-time buyers in 1984 were married couples and about half had children. In the 2023 survey, 52% of first-time buyers were married couples and 36% had children.

Almost 60% of baby boomers were homeowners at age 33, compared with about 40% of millennials at the same age, according to an analysis by Victoria Gregory, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Millennials are catching up as they get older, and many jumped into the market during the pandemic-era housing boom. About 55% of millennials were homeowners in 2023, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin.

Buyers in the 1980s also took advantage of loans that helped them evade high mortgage rates. Just over half of conventional single-family mortgages originated in 1985 had adjustable rates, which have historically had lower upfront rates than fixed-rate loans, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

ARMs today aren’t as appealing to buyers. ARMs made up 5.6% of mortgage originations in the first five months of 2024, according to Intercontinental Exchange.

It was also easier to get a below-market rate in the 1980s by taking over someone else’s loan.

Buyers today benefit from a broader array of down-payment assistance programs, real-estate agents say.

But policy changes put in place after the 2008 financial crisis have made lending standards stricter. That makes it less likely that there will be another large foreclosure crisis. It also makes it harder for some potential homeowners to enter the market.

A lack of supply

In the 1980s, home-buying affordability improved as mortgage rates declined. That same solution won’t be as simple today, economists say, because the low supply of homes is expected to keep prices high.

New-home construction plunged during the financial crisis and took years to recover. Home builders built 1.4 million units last year, compared with 1.7 million units in 1985, according to Census Bureau data. And shipments of manufactured homes, one of the most affordable types of housing, stood just under 90,000 last year, down from more than 280,000 in 1985.

On top of the overall shortage, many homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates in recent years are opting not to move.

Inventory has started to rise in recent months, especially in the new-construction market. But the total supply of new and existing single-family homes for sale in June was still 12.5% below the average level from 2017 to 2019.

Chart showing the inventory of single family homes for sale declining over time next to a chart showing the U.S. population steadily increasing.
U.S. inventory of single-family homes for sale

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

When did you buy your first home? Do you think it’s easier or harder for first-time home buyers today? Join the conversation below.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [email protected] and Alana Pipe at [email protected]
I knew it was bad, but I did not realize it was that bad. I am a back end Boomer, 64 in October, the youngest Boomers turn 60 this year. My wife and I rented until we bought our first and current home in 1995. We still live in the same house that is now worth MORE than 3x what we paid for it. I cannot imagine that our children will see the same appreciation on their investment, but who knows?
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23808
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

KI Dock Bar wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 4:24 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Sun Aug 11, 2024 11:33 am Symptom of the self (country) created problem I’ve been saying which many of you old timers object to and take personally.

Boomers Buying Houses Had It Bad in the ’80s. Millennials Have It Worse.
By Nicole Friedman and Alana Pipe
Aug. 11, 2024 at 5:30 am ET
The housing affordability index shows whether the typical family...


...earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced single-family home...

...or doesn't earn enough to qualify.

Today’s housing market is the most difficult in decades, a great frustration for millennials and Gen Zers looking for a starter home. Baby boomers can relate.

Home-buying affordability dropped last fall to the lowest level since September 1985, and it fell near that level again in June. In 1985, when Ronald Reagan was president and Microsoft launched Windows 1.0, millions of Americans of the baby boomer generation were in their late 20s and early 30s, the prime first-time home-buying years. They also found themselves priced out of the market.

But because buyers in the mid-1980s had much more housing supply available, homes became more affordable as mortgage rates fell in subsequent years.

First-time home buyers these days have it considerably harder. While affordability is likely to improve by the end of the year if borrowing rates ease and inventory continues to grow, it won’t get significantly better for home buyers without a lot more home building, economists say.

Then and now

The National Association of Realtors’ affordability metric incorporates median single-family existing-home prices, mortgage rates and median family incomes. Even though it is roughly the same today as in the mid-1980s, the drivers of the housing market and consumer sentiments are nothing alike.

In the mid-1980s, home prices weren’t unusually high relative to incomes. It was the mortgage rate, which soared above 18% in 1981 and held above 10% for most of the decade, that frustrated buyers.

Mortgage rates currently sit just below 6.5%, according to Freddie Mac, which is more than double where they stood in 2021 but below the long-term average level since 1971. But home prices are much higher, having soared more than 50% since 2019.

Mortgage rates rose rapidly in the late 1970s as the Federal Reserve increased short-term rates to slow inflation. After home-buying affordability hit a record low in 1981, home sales slumped. But median existing-home prices, which aren’t adjusted for inflation, kept rising on an annual basis, according to NAR.

Affordability improved after 1981 as inflation got under control and mortgage rates declined. That is a key difference from today: Home buyers in 1985 were more optimistic than they are today, because affordability had improved from a few years earlier.

In September 1985, 72% of consumers said it was a good time to buy a home, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. In June 2024, just 12% said the same.

Consumer Sentiment Survey

“Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to buy a house?"


In 1982 15% of people surveyed said that it was a good time to buy a house

12% of people felt that way in June this year

Affordability has dramatically worsened compared with recent years, when mortgage rates fell to record lows during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In January 2021, a family needed income of $49,152 to afford the median-priced single-family home with a 20% down payment, according to NAR’s affordability index. In June 2024, the family would need an income of $110,544 to make the same purchase.

Other costs associated with homeownership, including property taxes and home insurance, have also risen.

Existing-home sales slid in 2023 to the lowest level since 1995 and have held at low levels in the first half of 2024.

Typical buyers

Another sign that the housing market was easier in the mid-1980s is that home buyers were younger.

The typical first-time home buyer in 1984 was 29 years old, according to a NAR survey conducted at the time. In NAR’s 2023 survey, the median first-time home buyer age was 35.

Millennials, who represent many of today’s first-time buyers, are getting married and having children later in life than prior generations. Three-fourths of first-time buyers in 1984 were married couples and about half had children. In the 2023 survey, 52% of first-time buyers were married couples and 36% had children.

Almost 60% of baby boomers were homeowners at age 33, compared with about 40% of millennials at the same age, according to an analysis by Victoria Gregory, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Millennials are catching up as they get older, and many jumped into the market during the pandemic-era housing boom. About 55% of millennials were homeowners in 2023, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin.

Buyers in the 1980s also took advantage of loans that helped them evade high mortgage rates. Just over half of conventional single-family mortgages originated in 1985 had adjustable rates, which have historically had lower upfront rates than fixed-rate loans, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

ARMs today aren’t as appealing to buyers. ARMs made up 5.6% of mortgage originations in the first five months of 2024, according to Intercontinental Exchange.

It was also easier to get a below-market rate in the 1980s by taking over someone else’s loan.

Buyers today benefit from a broader array of down-payment assistance programs, real-estate agents say.

But policy changes put in place after the 2008 financial crisis have made lending standards stricter. That makes it less likely that there will be another large foreclosure crisis. It also makes it harder for some potential homeowners to enter the market.

A lack of supply

In the 1980s, home-buying affordability improved as mortgage rates declined. That same solution won’t be as simple today, economists say, because the low supply of homes is expected to keep prices high.

New-home construction plunged during the financial crisis and took years to recover. Home builders built 1.4 million units last year, compared with 1.7 million units in 1985, according to Census Bureau data. And shipments of manufactured homes, one of the most affordable types of housing, stood just under 90,000 last year, down from more than 280,000 in 1985.

On top of the overall shortage, many homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates in recent years are opting not to move.

Inventory has started to rise in recent months, especially in the new-construction market. But the total supply of new and existing single-family homes for sale in June was still 12.5% below the average level from 2017 to 2019.

Chart showing the inventory of single family homes for sale declining over time next to a chart showing the U.S. population steadily increasing.
U.S. inventory of single-family homes for sale

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

When did you buy your first home? Do you think it’s easier or harder for first-time home buyers today? Join the conversation below.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [email protected] and Alana Pipe at [email protected]
I knew it was bad, but I did not realize it was that bad. I am a back end Boomer, 64 in October, the youngest Boomers turn 60 this year. My wife and I rented until we bought our first and current home in 1995. We still live in the same house that is now worth MORE than 3x what we paid for it. I cannot imagine that our children will see the same appreciation on their investment, but who knows?
Appreciation won’t do that you lived through the financialization of real estate (expansion of hud, improvements in securitization and distribution of the debt, changes is tax structure 80s/90s opening up the reit world, etc). And incomes still have a relationship to real estate as an asset. We’ve just gone from avg dti of like 10-25% to 28-50% as we’ve run up real estate values in this country. (We also funded the early entities that are now known as single family rental businesses and house aggregators especially in sunbelt areas in programs from GFC I know
Many of those cats).

It’s simply not the savings and wealth accumulation vehicle for citizens going forward it was for 40-60yrs. Something else is going to have to replace it and that’s what worries me as we watch boomers hang onto power and resources, pull forward resources for their own benefit because they already maxed out americas credit car such they they levered up even the land under us and still won’t hand over control. One day we’re going to be living with a belt so tight we will all have hernias.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
User avatar
Brooklyn
Posts: 10254
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:16 am
Location: St Paul, Minnesota

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Brooklyn »

'He Is Very Mentally Ill': Donald Trump Claims 'the Only Reason the Stock Market Is Up Is Because People Think I'm Going to Win'


https://okmagazine.com/p/mentally-ill-d ... eople-win/


Donald Trump is being called out yet again.

While at a rally in North Carolina on Wednesday, August 14, the 78-year-old make some outrageous claims about the economy.

"Many people say that the only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win. But there was one day a couple of weeks ago when they were not thinking that and you saw what happened," he said to the crowd.

During another tangent, he said, "You know what net zero -- they have no idea what it means by the way. Ask her what it means. We are going to go to a net zero policy. What does that mean? Uh, I have no idea."

He is very mentally ill. https://t.co/R8ifcVpFnZ

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) August 14, 2024

Of course, people couldn't help but weigh in on the crazy comments.

"He is very mentally ill," one person said, while another added, "Yes, he is weird. Yes, he is deranged. Yes, he is dangerous. But he is also very stupid."

A third person added, "He also doesn’t understand the stock market. And his stock is tanking," while a fourth stated, "LOL.... The stock market would be happy if he went away."

more ...


Clearly, delusional tRump is mentally unfit for the office.
It has been proven a hundred times that the surest way to the heart of any man, black or white, honest or dishonest, is through justice and fairness.

Charles Francis "Socker" Coe, Esq
User avatar
youthathletics
Posts: 15777
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23808
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

youthathletics wrote: Sun Aug 18, 2024 8:13 pm Hey afan, is this your mentor :lol: ? https://x.com/CilComLFC/status/1824569443302953442
Here’s brooklyns economics teacher

https://youtu.be/D4BXqW6J3AA?si=5sQGFgeWJRpVUstK
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
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youthathletics
Posts: 15777
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Sun Aug 18, 2024 9:41 pm
youthathletics wrote: Sun Aug 18, 2024 8:13 pm Hey afan, is this your mentor :lol: ? https://x.com/CilComLFC/status/1824569443302953442
Here’s brooklyns economics teacher

https://youtu.be/D4BXqW6J3AA?si=5sQGFgeWJRpVUstK
Leave it to you, to find a hilarious clip. “It stings, and that why I have a lazy eye” 😂😂
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
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Brooklyn
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Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:16 am
Location: St Paul, Minnesota

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Brooklyn »

^ looks more like your home economics teacher :lol:
It has been proven a hundred times that the surest way to the heart of any man, black or white, honest or dishonest, is through justice and fairness.

Charles Francis "Socker" Coe, Esq
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