The Nation's Financial Condition

[NattyBohChamps04]

If I run a shrimp special that loses $11M when I have $4.6B in total revenues? Well then I'm absolutely 100% gonna blame it on that. If I'm lucky, the media and Facebook hopefully eats it up hook, line and trawler.

Sad that a lot of these dudes are probably gonna run additional iconic brands into the ground in the coming years like they have for the past 30+. All to squeeze out a few extra bucks.

I mean I can spend pages explaining it but then even the people here who don’t hate me will start baiting me but it’s true what I’m saying. Revenue means nothing unless your a moron VC at Andreeson Horowitz 5-10yrs ago. (Now something absurd like A16z is their name but they still are not good stewards of capital at all)

Revenues mean nothing. Brands are silly. As they say they haven’t innovated in ages, their own kind. What kind of brand value is there in stale and non innovated in decades retail businesses?

Btw those shrimp I’ve seen too many times. They aren’t reals shrimp they’re the defects form three mile island and surrounding Staten islands shores.

Yeah, revenues are a red herring, but the shrimp is still a drop in the bucket. I've certainly had many of years with lower revenues yet higher profits. There's a whole self-help wing out there for grindset bros based off the "Profit First" book that's popped up in the last 7 years.

My point was that the news media is running with the shrimp story because it's more eye grabbing than the real issues, and the whole PE asset stripping.

And these PE firms aren't usually doing any innovation either. Just trying to squeeze as much water from the stone before moving onto the next thing.

We'd rotate between all the all-you-can-eat deals in college. The Red Lobster one had smaller shrimp. The waiters would also slow roll the next round, and bring out smaller portions after the first round so we wouldn't crush ~100 shrimp in one setting. Every once in a while you'd get a waiter who'd hook you up and bring them out one after the other.

[Farfromgeneva]

If I run a shrimp special that loses $11M when I have $4.6B in total revenues? Well then I'm absolutely 100% gonna blame it on that. If I'm lucky, the media and Facebook hopefully eats it up hook, line and trawler.

Sad that a lot of these dudes are probably gonna run additional iconic brands into the ground in the coming years like they have for the past 30+. All to squeeze out a few extra bucks.

I mean I can spend pages explaining it but then even the people here who don’t hate me will start baiting me but it’s true what I’m saying. Revenue means nothing unless your a moron VC at Andreeson Horowitz 5-10yrs ago. (Now something absurd like A16z is their name but they still are not good stewards of capital at all)

Revenues mean nothing. Brands are silly. As they say they haven’t innovated in ages, their own kind. What kind of brand value is there in stale and non innovated in decades retail businesses?

Btw those shrimp I’ve seen too many times. They aren’t reals shrimp they’re the defects form three mile island and surrounding Staten islands shores.

Yeah, revenues are a red herring, but the shrimp is still a drop in the bucket. I've certainly had many of years with lower revenues yet higher profits. There's a whole self-help wing out there for grindset bros based off the "Profit First" book that's popped up in the last 7 years.

My point was that the news media is running with the shrimp story because it's more eye grabbing than the real issues, and the whole PE asset stripping.

And these PE firms aren't usually doing any innovation either. Just trying to squeeze as much water from the stone before moving onto the next thing.

We'd rotate between all the all-you-can-eat deals in college. The Red Lobster one had smaller shrimp. The waiters would also slow roll the next round, and bring out smaller portions after the first round so we wouldn't crush ~100 shrimp in one setting. Every once in a while you'd get a waiter who'd hook you up and bring them out one after the other.

Geindset = crypto = the clappers - you’ll enjoy this clip even though I had to pull it from a tik tok source

https://www.tiktok.com/@netflixisajoke/ ... 9867133230

I understand your point now wasn’t clear before. I’ve pointed out that high level PE guys at a shop everyone has heard of once told me the game was “deriding your equity and getting a cheap or free option on the upside”. Additionally the way the play games with IRRs is enhanced by turning the money over faster by dividend recaps etc. hence whatever little cheddar I have for illiquid investments privately run I won’t listen if you don’t also address MOIC. Irrs suck ba**s. That’s a technical term.

And don’t get me started on when I lived in Copenhagen, would ride the free city bikes to Christiana, smoke weed and play chess at the little bar in there and then ride to the Pizza Hut Buffett with a friend where they’d literally gotten to know us by my third week living there…when it comes to food deals I’m like Gregory Hines nose in a chariot running from Roman soldiers. “Yall don’t know the value!”

Btw can’t you get septic shock or something from crushing too much shellfish?

[PizzaSnake]

If I run a shrimp special that loses $11M when I have $4.6B in total revenues? Well then I'm absolutely 100% gonna blame it on that. If I'm lucky, the media and Facebook hopefully eats it up hook, line and trawler.

Sad that a lot of these dudes are probably gonna run additional iconic brands into the ground in the coming years like they have for the past 30+. All to squeeze out a few extra bucks.

I mean I can spend pages explaining it but then even the people here who don’t hate me will start baiting me but it’s true what I’m saying. Revenue means nothing unless your a moron VC at Andreeson Horowitz 5-10yrs ago. (Now something absurd like A16z is their name but they still are not good stewards of capital at all)

Revenues mean nothing. Brands are silly. As they say they haven’t innovated in ages, their own kind. What kind of brand value is there in stale and non innovated in decades retail businesses?

Btw those shrimp I’ve seen too many times. They aren’t reals shrimp they’re the defects form three mile island and surrounding Staten islands shores.

Yeah, revenues are a red herring, but the shrimp is still a drop in the bucket. I've certainly had many of years with lower revenues yet higher profits. There's a whole self-help wing out there for grindset bros based off the "Profit First" book that's popped up in the last 7 years.

My point was that the news media is running with the shrimp story because it's more eye grabbing than the real issues, and the whole PE asset stripping.

And these PE firms aren't usually doing any innovation either. Just trying to squeeze as much water from the stone before moving onto the next thing.

We'd rotate between all the all-you-can-eat deals in college. The Red Lobster one had smaller shrimp. The waiters would also slow roll the next round, and bring out smaller portions after the first round so we wouldn't crush ~100 shrimp in one setting. Every once in a while you'd get a waiter who'd hook you up and bring them out one after the other.

So, they're not creating value by more efficient deployment of capital and re-allocation of human resources?

[Farfromgeneva]

If I run a shrimp special that loses $11M when I have $4.6B in total revenues? Well then I'm absolutely 100% gonna blame it on that. If I'm lucky, the media and Facebook hopefully eats it up hook, line and trawler.

Sad that a lot of these dudes are probably gonna run additional iconic brands into the ground in the coming years like they have for the past 30+. All to squeeze out a few extra bucks.

I mean I can spend pages explaining it but then even the people here who don’t hate me will start baiting me but it’s true what I’m saying. Revenue means nothing unless your a moron VC at Andreeson Horowitz 5-10yrs ago. (Now something absurd like A16z is their name but they still are not good stewards of capital at all)

Revenues mean nothing. Brands are silly. As they say they haven’t innovated in ages, their own kind. What kind of brand value is there in stale and non innovated in decades retail businesses?

Btw those shrimp I’ve seen too many times. They aren’t reals shrimp they’re the defects form three mile island and surrounding Staten islands shores.

Yeah, revenues are a red herring, but the shrimp is still a drop in the bucket. I've certainly had many of years with lower revenues yet higher profits. There's a whole self-help wing out there for grindset bros based off the "Profit First" book that's popped up in the last 7 years.

My point was that the news media is running with the shrimp story because it's more eye grabbing than the real issues, and the whole PE asset stripping.

And these PE firms aren't usually doing any innovation either. Just trying to squeeze as much water from the stone before moving onto the next thing.

We'd rotate between all the all-you-can-eat deals in college. The Red Lobster one had smaller shrimp. The waiters would also slow roll the next round, and bring out smaller portions after the first round so we wouldn't crush ~100 shrimp in one setting. Every once in a while you'd get a waiter who'd hook you up and bring them out one after the other.

So, they're not creating value by more efficient deployment of capital and re-allocation of human resources?

At this point I can’t even recall the last time I heard or read someone claim that. Used to be the case but not since probably the 2000s.

[Farfromgeneva]

If I run a shrimp special that loses $11M when I have $4.6B in total revenues? Well then I'm absolutely 100% gonna blame it on that. If I'm lucky, the media and Facebook hopefully eats it up hook, line and trawler.

Sad that a lot of these dudes are probably gonna run additional iconic brands into the ground in the coming years like they have for the past 30+. All to squeeze out a few extra bucks.

I mean I can spend pages explaining it but then even the people here who don’t hate me will start baiting me but it’s true what I’m saying. Revenue means nothing unless your a moron VC at Andreeson Horowitz 5-10yrs ago. (Now something absurd like A16z is their name but they still are not good stewards of capital at all)

Revenues mean nothing. Brands are silly. As they say they haven’t innovated in ages, their own kind. What kind of brand value is there in stale and non innovated in decades retail businesses?

Btw those shrimp I’ve seen too many times. They aren’t reals shrimp they’re the defects form three mile island and surrounding Staten islands shores.

Yeah, revenues are a red herring, but the shrimp is still a drop in the bucket. I've certainly had many of years with lower revenues yet higher profits. There's a whole self-help wing out there for grindset bros based off the "Profit First" book that's popped up in the last 7 years.

My point was that the news media is running with the shrimp story because it's more eye grabbing than the real issues, and the whole PE asset stripping.

And these PE firms aren't usually doing any innovation either. Just trying to squeeze as much water from the stone before moving onto the next thing.

We'd rotate between all the all-you-can-eat deals in college. The Red Lobster one had smaller shrimp. The waiters would also slow roll the next round, and bring out smaller portions after the first round so we wouldn't crush ~100 shrimp in one setting. Every once in a while you'd get a waiter who'd hook you up and bring them out one after the other.

Was watching the Jon Oliver whom I like but often misses the mark on business aspects. They cover RL.

I think you know this but restaurants are the playground of PE, get hot, grow too fast then need to go public to cover the too fast growth then have to manage costs for public shareholders and make terrible managerial decisions and end up weak and in the hands of PE. Like he said PE gonna do what PE does. But it’s bad management that leads to weakness that offer PE an entree into these businesses to do their financial engineering. Just blaming PE misses all the management and problems created for employees that allows PE in through the back door. Like PE is the symptom not the diagnosis.

[Farfromgeneva]

Or for the folks who can’t handle any “non American accent” try Brad Pitt.

https://youtu.be/TkVt-hTU6E4?si=fYA0pbd5Jr-rFZPZ

[Farfromgeneva]

Used to drop things in found interesting in here occasionally and think a few folks would read up on them, I think. So here’s a few I thought were interesting recently:

CFPB guidance on BNPL: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-u ... ter-loans/

key extract - basically these loans have to be treated by lenders more like credit cards than they have been:

Today’s interpretive rule describes how Buy Now, Pay Later lenders meet the criteria for credit card providers, under the Truth in Lending Act. For consumers, this means Buy Now, Pay Later lenders must:

Investigate disputes: Buy Now, Pay Later lenders must investigate disputes that consumers initiate. Lenders must also pause payment requirements during the investigation and sometimes must issue credits.
Refund returned products or cancelled services: When consumers return products or cancel services for a refund, Buy Now, Pay Later lenders must credit the refunds to consumers’ accounts.
Provide billing statements: Consumers must receive periodic billing statements like the ones received for classic credit card accounts.

——

HUD rolls out community loan program for mobile home parks (I don’t like the whitewashing institutions did to call it Manufactured Housing just like it’ll be another quarter century before I accept “Hobart” as “Hobart and William Smith” and that mentality includes the women of WS form as recently as ten years ago as graduates): https://www.hud.gov/press/press_release ... _no_24_137

Key takeaway: institutional investors pushed into this asset class the last 6-8yrs and it could get ugly. This program is far better than Fannie ran a pilot to let massive funds use GSE guaranteed financing to get subsidized debt on massive pools of single family rental homes but at least that lasted less than a year thankfully for society. But small programs impact will be under 10,000 homes.

Their quote within the link-Beginning today, certain mission-focused entities such as resident-owned manufactured home communities, cooperatives, non-profit entities and consortia, state and local governments, community development financing institutions, and Indian Tribes, will be eligible to use this program to finance the acquisition of or to improve existing communities, including making updates to common area resources and helping to maintain rent affordability. This tool provides an alternative to purchase of these communities by private equity funds and similar financial interests, whose track record reportedly includes unaffordable rent increases, failure to invest in community infrastructure, and regulations that don’t respect the community’s culture.

[Farfromgeneva]

Share guy and thought leader in fintech I’ve gotten to know wrote this interesting commentary this am (just on LinkedIn) which I found concise and accurate so sharing. Reading his weekly on substack this am As well on similar topic.

—

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) just released a consumer bulletin warning about using fintech apps. Why it's not likely to help:

The bulletin, whose timing amid the collapse of BaaS middleware platform Synapse hardly seems coincidental, warns users that funds they hold in "third party" fintech apps may not be insured.

It suggests that consumers "be aware that nonbank companies themselves are never FDIC-insured. Even if they claim to work with FDIC-insured banks, funds you send to a nonbank company are not eligible for FDIC insurance until the company deposits them in an FDIC-insured bank and after other conditions are met."

But expecting consumers, who've been trained to believe their money is safe, to parse disclosures and terms and conditions is unrealistic.

Some fintechs have purposefully sought to capitalize on the trust users associate with the term “bank” and with the FDIC, with numerous examples of companies deploying potentially deceptive or misleading claims like the one shown below, from Stake, a client of BaaS intermediary Unit and Blue Ridge Bank and TransPecos Banks, SSB.

The average user is unlikely to distinguish between a company calling itself a "bank" vs. "banking."

Even if consumers do read the T&Cs, there is literally no way a consumer can verify if their account and funds meet the conditions for pass-through insurance to apply.

Full analysis and potential public policy responses in this week's Fintech Business Weekly through the link in the comments below.

[PizzaSnake]

I know this isn't new, but this is the crux of what ails our country.

We need to knock off the distractions and address these issues: work that lends workers pride and a reason to live, and education beyond the Christian Madrassases.

We are going to have to pay more for things if we are going to get the jobs back. Fcuk the "efficiencies" of global labor. Time to choose: our nation or the investment returns of the top 1%.

Choose wisely, because our future depends on it.

[youthathletics]

The dollar is stronger, not weaker under Biden. So, too the economy. As I said, facts

Do we have reason to worry? https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CH ... 8&dpr=1.25

Yeah. Worry about the end of the petrodollar (and concomitant dollar demand and T-bill market). Now that would be very bad fcuking news. I guess we could default and dare countries not to trade with us...

The feckless twats in the House seem to think it's a good plan. Oh, and Elon's and feckless jerk as well (and a fcuking weirdo to boot -- apple didn't fall to far from the tree).

Thx. Seems China, Brazil, SA, and others are working to expedite it. Not sure what your Musk comment has to do with anything.

What are they doing?

https://www.newsweek.com/brazil-russia- ... ut-1757643

How does this expedite the decline of the US dollar and which currency is likely to replace it as a reserve currency based on that article you linked? How does this threat differ from the revamped TPP? Which is the bigger threat?

Happy Palm Sunday

I am the one asking the question here ... I do not know the answer.

Likewise.

Petro-dollar expires:

https://www.tbsnews.net/world/global-ec ... ift-875321

[youthathletics]

Alright....who thinks this is bad, good, or great? https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/18 ... 0859350482

It does make gov't much smaller, so afan may love it.

[a fan]

Alright....who thinks this is bad, good, or great? https://x.com/RepThomasMassie/status/18 ... 0859350482

It does make gov't much smaller, so afan may love it.

Pretty sure he didn't mean my consumption tax...but if he did? I'd love it, obviously.

And you wouldn't need to shrink government. You could make it bigger, AND have a balanced budget.

Folks keep forgetting how few americans and corporations pay income or corporate or business taxes....right now, today.

[jhu72]

World Bank sees US as leading economy and it isn't close.

[Farfromgeneva]

I know this isn't new, but this is the crux of what ails our country.

We need to knock off the distractions and address these issues: work that lends workers pride and a reason to live, and education beyond the Christian Madrassases.

We are going to have to pay more for things if we are going to get the jobs back. Fcuk the "efficiencies" of global labor. Time to choose: our nation or the investment returns of the top 1%.

Choose wisely, because our future depends on it.

Look into the optimization of rents in the single family rental space (is point to praetium as a good example) and how it’s going to massively squeeze labor mobility if it haven’t already. As of tossing non competes matters when your home costs press up against max affordability leaving no savings.

Also there’s this:

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/f ... 5LAEFRS3U/

I don’t want to give Khan an inch because she sucks really badly and is wrong so often but she’s right here.

[PizzaSnake]

I know this isn't new, but this is the crux of what ails our country.

We need to knock off the distractions and address these issues: work that lends workers pride and a reason to live, and education beyond the Christian Madrassases.

We are going to have to pay more for things if we are going to get the jobs back. Fcuk the "efficiencies" of global labor. Time to choose: our nation or the investment returns of the top 1%.

Choose wisely, because our future depends on it.

Look into the optimization of rents in the single family rental space (is point to praetium as a good example) and how it’s going to massively squeeze labor mobility if it haven’t already. As of tossing non competes matters when your home costs press up against max affordability leaving no savings.

Also there’s this:

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/f ... 5LAEFRS3U/

I don’t want to give Khan an inch because she sucks really badly and is wrong so often but she’s right here.

How so? Not being facetious — I’m not that familiar eith her and welcome your perspective.

[Farfromgeneva]

I know this isn't new, but this is the crux of what ails our country.

We need to knock off the distractions and address these issues: work that lends workers pride and a reason to live, and education beyond the Christian Madrassases.

We are going to have to pay more for things if we are going to get the jobs back. Fcuk the "efficiencies" of global labor. Time to choose: our nation or the investment returns of the top 1%.

Choose wisely, because our future depends on it.

Look into the optimization of rents in the single family rental space (is point to praetium as a good example) and how it’s going to massively squeeze labor mobility if it haven’t already. As of tossing non competes matters when your home costs press up against max affordability leaving no savings.

Also there’s this:

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/f ... 5LAEFRS3U/

I don’t want to give Khan an inch because she sucks really badly and is wrong so often but she’s right here.

How so? Not being facetious — I’m not that familiar eith her and welcome your perspective.

Overreach and a personality that oozes that she’s more important than the system in the wrongness seat - and for perspective I think we’ve failed in our antitrust futures with respect to merger and competitor balance in many industries out of fear of global competition as if competition stops at our borders.

She does the media backdoor to sell herself in a role that should be the opposite.

A person living in abstractions with nonsense of reality which makes her wildly ineffective. Just a figurehead who didn’t realize she can’t even do the things she wants and those things aren’t the right approach. Hence her record is a joke. I don’t have time for media “who-as” (can be men too, mid to Al Pacino here) with ideas incubated outside the real world and then a power grab. She needs to take the time to reframe how we approach anti trust completely hit instead ran out and started doing things to “bust a nut” fast and price hypothesis but outdid reality. Kind of like the second stimulus by Biden that still has a negatively profound impact on our country today)-classic reason why I can’t go Dem even if unite what the roe party sold their soul to in a bunch of degenerate populists.

This is totally fair from a headline a year ago.

After loss against Meta, Lina Khan’s ability to rein in Big Tech with the FTC is being questioned
Last Updated: March 4, 2023 at 8:31 a.m. ET
First Published: March 3, 2023 at 9:46 a.m. ET
By Jon SwartzFollow
comments1
‘There is an enormous disconnect between expectations of what she can achieve and what the law allows her to do,’ says one former FTC official

-

She’s 35 with four years writing and researching for a think tank and then being an academic who got her JD in 2017 and four years later is running the FTC with no outside experiences. This guy was appointed by Obama (older school Republican not this tea party and behind nonsense - Josh Wright articulates my general view in a brief comment here
-

Joshua Wright, who served on the FTC from 2013 to 2015, derided her work as "hipster antitrust" and argued it "reveal[ed] a profound lack of understanding of the consumer welfare model and the rule of reason framework."[14] Herbert Hovenkamp wrote that Khan's claims are "technically undisciplined, untestable, and even incoherent", and that her work "never explains how a nonmanufacturing retailer such as Amazon could ever recover its investment in below cost pricing by later raising prices, and even disputes that raising prices to higher levels ever needs to be a part of the strategy, thus indicating that it is confusing predation with investment."[15]

-

Me again:

She was a bad hire from day one and her record shows it. It was to feed certain interests and where I object to this argument libels hav zero power when you look at many appointees to serious roles.

Meanwhile you could end Boeing tomorrow which would be a net positive no matter what Old anachronistic salt will argue as a guy by paid the industry after his service. But you do need someone in that seat with corporate experience. She doesn’t have a clue how businesses are run at all. I don’t view all jobs as requiring real world experience but this one does. Even my sister acknowledges she’s better off in her far left arguments because I’ve always guided her to understand the legit argument from the other side on economic policies. She made a comment in her mid late 50s recently (in Bay Area since 1990) “maybe our absolute rejection of all for profit multifamily development was wrong”. Well my sister doesn’t have the finishing school as Khan with lowly SUNY Potsdam (self funded my pretend were really broke when she went to college in 12yrs younger), Emerson college for graduate in drama which she only recently paid off despite her lasting working for Berkeley Rep completely like 1997 or 99 (spent some time min Boston at this ART playhouse joint that’s supposedly strong and might’ve done a summer of two after my nephew was born throwing in on this come well known SF Mine troup that is acting plays not mimes ) and a more recent childhood dev degree she utilized to make $50k a year or so at a high end Jewish pre school. Point being my sister would be better running the FTC bc she would listen and understand that she doesn’t know what she doesn’t know. She would still take action but her record would be much better in win/loss which is ultimately the scorecard of measurement for this roles. Trying doesn’t matter in this seat.

To my point as well. The fight on non competes I agree with generally but she ignored the SFR industry in general’s and their behavior in practice which is moronic if your goal is labor mobility in a global/national economy where roe folks are going remote but they can’t do it well from 5-10 states away that’s mythical dumb and thoughtless that only someone with no practical experience. You go after predatory and size / competitively concentrated aggregated home owner rental business first to ensure mobility in actuality before you worry about ok competes. She impractical, clueless and too media focused.

[youthathletics]

Lovely….debt transferred to us all. 27% potential jump: https://x.com/wallstreetsilv/status/180 ... a82I2GssRg

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-smar ... 15069.html

The average inflation rate when Donald Trump was president was 1.9%. During Joe Biden’s presidency, inflation has averaged 5.4%. Many voters think of Biden as the inflation guy.

Yet some prominent investors think future inflation will be worse if Trump wins the 2024 election than if Biden wins. In a June 18 analysis, Goldman Sachs argued that investors should buy gold if they’re worried about the inflationary impact of Trump’s economic agenda, should he become president.

“We see value in long gold positions as an inflation hedge from geopolitical shock including tariffs, Fed subordination risk, and debt fears,” Goldman analysts wrote. While they didn't identify that as the Trump agenda, those three potential shocks are a clear reference to economic policies Trump has been floating.

Trump wants to impose a new 60% tariff on all imports from China and a 10% tariff on all other imports. Since tariffs are taxes paid by Americans, that would raise a typical family’s costs by $1,700 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Shoppers would be spending more for the same stuff, which is basically what inflation is.

Trump also thinks the White House should have more control over the Federal Reserve, a prospect that would alarm financial markets if it ever happened. The Fed has a tough enough job as it is trying to keep inflation and employment at optimal levels, and political interference from the White House could make that a lot harder.

Trump in particular has pressed the Fed to lower interest rates, even though the standard playbook for bringing down inflation is raising rates to slow the economy. If Trump won a second term and tried to force his own agenda on the Fed, it could easily stoke inflation and undermine confidence in the US economy.

Trump also wants to extend a set of tax cuts from 2017 that are due to expire at the end of 2025. That would raise the national debt by $4 trillion to $5 trillion, something Trump doesn’t seem to care about. But markets do. At some point, excessive amounts of debt flooding the market becomes “money printing.” That's another factor that can fuel inflation.

Even though there are two major candidates, there are four possible outcomes for the 2024 election.

Trump or Biden could each win with their party gaining complete control of Congress, or they could win with a divided Congress. That’s important because it will determine if the president can exploit his party’s control of Congress to pursue a partisan agenda. If the opposition party controls at least one house of Congress, it can block many of the president’s preferred policies.


Drop Rick Newman a note, follow him on Twitter, or sign up for his newsletter.

But if Republicans gain full control, watch out.

“The upside risks to inflation appear larger under a Republican sweep,” Goldman advised. In addition to higher tariffs and more Fed-bashing under Trump, the investment bank points out that a Trump crackdown on immigration could trim the labor force, worsen labor shortages in some industries, fuel higher wages, and push prices up.

Another recent analysis by Moody’s Analytics reaches similar conclusions about the economy during a second Trump term. “The policies adopted under the Republican Sweep scenario result in higher inflation and weaker economic growth,” Moody’s Analytics found. That’s largely because new import tariffs and less immigration under Trump would force prices up and drag on growth.

In a May analysis, Oxford Economics found that new tariffs and other Trump policies could push the inflation rate a full percentage point higher than it would be without those efforts. Inflationary Trump policies could also compel the Fed to hold off lowering interest rates and maybe even raise rates further to head off new inflationary pressures. That would likely enrage Trump and possibly compel him to try firing Fed Chair Jay Powell, whose appointment lasts until 2026.

MAY 30th 2024: Former President Donald Trump is found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree in connection with the Stormy Daniels hush money trial case. - File Photo by: zz/Andrea Renault/STAR MAX/IPx 2024 1/11/24 Former President Donald Trump is seen on January 11, 2024 outside the New York State Supreme Courthouse on the day of closing arguments during his civil business fraud trial case in New York City. (NYC)
Trumpnesia on the economy? Former President Donald Trump after being found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree in connection with the Stormy Daniels hush money trial case. (Andrea Renault/STAR MAX/IPx.) (zz/Andrea Renault/STAR MAX/IPx)More
Voters who think back on Trump’s presidency as a time of low inflation might wonder how a second term could be so different. The answer is that the COVID pandemic and geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have transformed the economy and left far less margin for error.

The United States and other nations are now “re-shoring” supply chains for key categories of goods, which should make supplies less vulnerable to shocks but also raise costs. Labor shortages for much of the last three years have pushed wages up, another factor contributing to higher prices.

Global energy markets are also much tighter than they were before COVID. Back then, American drillers and OPEC oil nations were competing for market share by basically oversupplying the market. That kept prices low. But plunging demand during COVID led to massive losses and new “capital discipline” that prioritizes profits over share. Virtually no energy producer is willing to overproduce these days, for any reason.

While inflation soared under Biden, it’s heading back toward normal levels. Many economists expect more of the same should he win reelection: continued disinflation, eventual Fed rate cuts, predictable trade policies, and moderate growth. The ultimate status quo scenario is a Biden win with Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress, allowing them to block progressive Democratic legislation.

Biden's economic agenda is still a tough sell to voters, who sometimes have selective memories. Biden is battling a “Trumpnesia” phenomenon in which voters forget about Trump’s erratic handling of the COVID pandemic and other controversies and only remember that gasoline cost less than $3 per gallon. If there’s another Trump presidential term, it could generate very different memories.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.

[NattyBohChamps04]

Lovely….debt transferred to us all. 27% potential jump: https://x.com/wallstreetsilv/status/180 ... a82I2GssRg

I have a potential cure for all cancers in my kitchen.

Luckily we have a guy on the ballot who will make the deficit a lot worse than Biden did. We should vote for him.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Tedious, but pretty interesting:

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/ ... n-tariffs/