The Nation's Financial Condition

[youthathletics]

The official jobs numbers from the past two months have been revised downward by -111,000.

The unemployment rate has risen to 4.1% — the highest since November 2021.

https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1809206517335560522

You, Donnie. and the 1%ers should be cheering. Nasdaq and S+P hit new record highs and the jobs number are being evaluated as possibly meaning an interest rate reduction sooner rather than later.

But you can't because Biden's prez. (Well, there's that and DJT was down over 6% today.)

For a guy who "doesn't like Trump" and supposedly doesn't plan to vote for him, you seem to work really hard at seeing the current administration in the least favorable light you can muster.

I am trying to regress this place to the mean, that we are all equally frustrated and tend to hold on to our partisan prejudices a bit too firmly. And if we actually considered that we are all equally frustrated, maybe there'd be a bit less bickering and an occasional "I am with ya brother", "I feel ya", 'Fist Bump', 'Head nod', 'thumbs up'.....nope, its a scoreboard reply with often a punch in the neck.

How about some love I've been banging on biden as much as trump the last two years adn how the dems blew this whole situation since the election.

[Farfromgeneva]

The official jobs numbers from the past two months have been revised downward by -111,000.

The unemployment rate has risen to 4.1% — the highest since November 2021.

https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1809206517335560522

You, Donnie. and the 1%ers should be cheering. Nasdaq and S+P hit new record highs and the jobs number are being evaluated as possibly meaning an interest rate reduction sooner rather than later.

But you can't because Biden's prez. (Well, there's that and DJT was down over 6% today.)

For a guy who "doesn't like Trump" and supposedly doesn't plan to vote for him, you seem to work really hard at seeing the current administration in the least favorable light you can muster.

I am trying to regress this place to the mean, that we are all equally frustrated and tend to hold on to our partisan prejudices a bit too firmly. And if we actually considered that we are all equally frustrated, maybe there'd be a bit less bickering and an occasional "I am with ya brother", "I feel ya", 'Fist Bump', 'Head nod', 'thumbs up'.....nope, its a scoreboard reply with often a punch in the neck.

How about some love I've been banging on biden as much as trump the last two years adn how the dems blew this whole situation since the election.

As long as you don’t do whatever tech knight did to Huey

[Brooklyn]

US employers added 206,000 nonfarm jobs in June, slightly beating economist estimates of 200,000 jobs, according to government data released yesterday. The figure is lower than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 jobs in May (compared to the originally reported 272,000).


sources: 1440 & Google


When tRump was in office we were losing hundreds of thousands of jobs per month. In fact, it was the worse job losses in history. But, somehow, many find him more fit for the White Wash House than Biden.

[CU88a]

No wonder the r's want to defund the IRS:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/busi ... ayers.html

I.R.S. Crackdown on Delinquent Millionaires Yields $1 Billion
The beefed-up enforcement is part of the agency’s modernization initiative aimed at improving customer service and catching wealthy tax evaders.

THEY ARE TRYING TO HELP THE AVERAGE JOE!

[OCanada]

“Starve the beast” was one strategy to reduce government

[Kismet]

Project 2025 tax proposals stick it to the middle class

https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/project ... -blueprint

Increase the tax rate from 12% to 15% for those making $168,000 or less - eliminate deductions

“The Treasury should work with Congress to simplify the tax code by enacting a simple two-rate individual tax system of 15 percent and 30 percent that eliminates most deductions, credits and exclusions.”

Typical garbage from these people

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I registered as an Independent waaaaaay back when. Maybe in my 20’s. I didn’t realize the benefits of being registered as such at the time (and I will go back to it). A few years ago I registered as a Republican. Big mistake for someone who hates junk mail and spam texts. A number of months ago, it seemed like every other day, I was getting Nikki Haley texts. I would block the number, report as spam and delete. Did no good. They kept coming until she threw in the towel. Nice and quiet for a long time.

I got my first piece of mail from the Trump campaign yesterday. Part of the packet was a questionnaire. I found one of the questions interesting as AF (that’s a fan to you) has been talking about this topic. Here is one of the questions that I’m hoping he'll weigh in on:

What action do you believe I should take to ensure that America’s economy turns around?

- Promote new tax cuts
- Cut federal regulations to help small businesses and new entrepreneurs prosper
- Reduce interest rates
- Address inflated prices
- Other

(And I'll add)

- None of the above

[youthathletics]

Project 2025 tax proposals stick it to the middle class

https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/project ... -blueprint

Increase the tax rate from 12% to 15% for those making $168,000 or less - eliminate deductions

“The Treasury should work with Congress to simplify the tax code by enacting a simple two-rate individual tax system of 15 percent and 30 percent that eliminates most deductions, credits and exclusions.”

Typical garbage from these people

They have essentially eliminated deductions already...unless the are referring to the 'standard deduction also being removed'' as it stands now, they actually made the standard deduction so high to itemize, that 'giving and philanthropy' now requires more pause b/c the standard deduction bar is so high.

Trump tax changes screwed most people and they don't even know it.

[Kismet]

Project 2025 tax proposals stick it to the middle class

https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/project ... -blueprint

Increase the tax rate from 12% to 15% for those making $168,000 or less - eliminate deductions

“The Treasury should work with Congress to simplify the tax code by enacting a simple two-rate individual tax system of 15 percent and 30 percent that eliminates most deductions, credits and exclusions.”

Typical garbage from these people

They have essentially eliminated deductions already...unless the are referring to the 'standard deduction also being removed'' as it stands now, they actually made the standard deduction so high to itemize, that 'giving and philanthropy' now requires more pause b/c the standard deduction bar is so high.

Trump tax changes screwed most people and they don't even know it.

Perhaps - but if you are at $168,000 or lower AGI - you tax bracket goes to 15% from 13%.

[cradleandshoot]

Project 2025 tax proposals stick it to the middle class

https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/project ... -blueprint

Increase the tax rate from 12% to 15% for those making $168,000 or less - eliminate deductions

“The Treasury should work with Congress to simplify the tax code by enacting a simple two-rate individual tax system of 15 percent and 30 percent that eliminates most deductions, credits and exclusions.”

Typical garbage from these people

They have essentially eliminated deductions already...unless the are referring to the 'standard deduction also being removed'' as it stands now, they actually made the standard deduction so high to itemize, that 'giving and philanthropy' now requires more pause b/c the standard deduction bar is so high.

Trump tax changes screwed most people and they don't even know it.

Perhaps - but if you are at $168,000 or lower AGI - you tax bracket goes to 15% from 13%.

Isn't paying higher taxes a good thing? If the federal government could find a way to control spending there wouldn't be a pressing need to raise taxes. We all need to pay our " fair share " as we are all told.

[a fan]

Project 2025 tax proposals stick it to the middle class

https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/project ... -blueprint

Increase the tax rate from 12% to 15% for those making $168,000 or less - eliminate deductions

“The Treasury should work with Congress to simplify the tax code by enacting a simple two-rate individual tax system of 15 percent and 30 percent that eliminates most deductions, credits and exclusions.”

Typical garbage from these people

They have essentially eliminated deductions already...unless the are referring to the 'standard deduction also being removed'' as it stands now, they actually made the standard deduction so high to itemize, that 'giving and philanthropy' now requires more pause b/c the standard deduction bar is so high.

Trump tax changes screwed most people and they don't even know it.

Perhaps - but if you are at $168,000 or lower AGI - you tax bracket goes to 15% from 13%.

Isn't paying higher taxes a good thing? If the federal government could find a way to control spending there wouldn't be a pressing need to raise taxes. We all need to pay our " fair share " as we are all told.

Last year? Biden spent as much as Reagan did in terms of % of GDP. You could take a whole mess of money off TrumpFans if you asked if Biden spent more than Reagan relative to GDP.

It's a tax problem. And yes, we should ALL pay more. The problem, as I'm sure you know, is that the 2025 plan doesn't hit the rich or Multinational corporations. It CUTS their taxes. Again.

Been trying to tell the board's Republicans this for over a decade now.....these policies F the working class, and line the pockets of the rich. And "the rich" means coastal liberal elite. The very people these 2025 nutjobs pretend to hate.

So why are they sending MORE money to these elite libs? Riddle me that.

[cradleandshoot]

Project 2025 tax proposals stick it to the middle class

https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/project ... -blueprint

Increase the tax rate from 12% to 15% for those making $168,000 or less - eliminate deductions

“The Treasury should work with Congress to simplify the tax code by enacting a simple two-rate individual tax system of 15 percent and 30 percent that eliminates most deductions, credits and exclusions.”

Typical garbage from these people

They have essentially eliminated deductions already...unless the are referring to the 'standard deduction also being removed'' as it stands now, they actually made the standard deduction so high to itemize, that 'giving and philanthropy' now requires more pause b/c the standard deduction bar is so high.

Trump tax changes screwed most people and they don't even know it.

Perhaps - but if you are at $168,000 or lower AGI - you tax bracket goes to 15% from 13%.

Isn't paying higher taxes a good thing? If the federal government could find a way to control spending there wouldn't be a pressing need to raise taxes. We all need to pay our " fair share " as we are all told.

Last year? Biden spent as much as Reagan did in terms of % of GDP. You could take a whole mess of money off TrumpFans if you asked if Biden spent more than Reagan relative to GDP.

It's a tax problem. And yes, we should ALL pay more. The problem, as I'm sure you know, is that the 2025 plan doesn't hit the rich or Multinational corporations. It CUTS their taxes. Again.

Been trying to tell the board's Republicans this for over a decade now.....these policies F the working class, and line the pockets of the rich. And "the rich" means coastal liberal elite. The very people these 2025 nutjobs pretend to hate.

So why are they sending MORE money to these elite libs? Riddle me that.

For as long as I have been alive the working class folks have always been on the short end of the stick. In that same vein politicians vying to get elected keep promising to help the working class. Those are promises that are always kicked to the curb to get back to business as usual. Funny how it always works out that way. Our local deceased Congresswoman Louise Slaughter served 16 terms in Congress always with the promise every election cycle to reelect her so she could fix what was broken in DC. Sadly she never succeeded in that quest in 32 years. She did manage to procure 38 million for a new downtown train station that is now named after her. IMO that is taking advantage of what is wrong in DC...oink, oink, oink.

[OCanada]

Rest easy. Trump will finish them off and the economy as well. Supuku by Trump voters

[OCanada]

One of the biggest questions in economics is whether today’s capitalism ( more so in USA and to a lesser extent other capitalist countries) is compatible with democracy. What role did economists play in creating the forces that are placing our basic structures at risk now.

[Brooklyn]

U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... 0082&ei=11

The U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter as consumers increased their spending, businesses invested more in equipment and stocked inventories, and inflation cooled.

Gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., adjusted for inflation and seasonality—rose at an annual rate of 2.8% for April through June, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was more than the 1.4% rate during the first quarter, and well above the 2.1% rate economists had expected before the report.

Household spending, the main driver of the U.S. economy, increased at a 2.3% rate in the second quarter, picking up from 1.5% in the first. Spending on goods increased while services spending moderated slightly.

The report suggested the U.S. economy remains on a solid footing. Thursday’s report is one of the last major readings of the economy’s temperature that Federal Reserve officials will see before their policy meeting next week, July 30-31. They are widely expected to hold interest rates steady at their coming meeting.

“The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualized should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent loosening of labor market conditions and signs of slower price growth still mean that there is a strong case for a cut at the following meeting in September,” Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.


more ...


All further proof of the success of the Biden administration.

[Farfromgeneva]

The expert economist speaks on a headline!

[Farfromgeneva]

For the idiot cheerleader crowd who don’t bother to
Understand economics and a concept of -latency.

Just remember the SF Fed study found that Covid era stimulus excess savings amongst us citizens ended this summer. Rent moratorium just can off this year and student loan moratorium last Nov (first month of repayment 44% missed, an insane number). We don’t know what Trump or Biden policies really have done for us until we’re back to a normalized period and we still have way more funds on
The street ( money supply - excess bank reserves held at the Fed). Everyone focuses on eyes but we went form an abnormally high $1.5Tn in 2019 to $3.3tn end of 2020. We’re still bringing down volume of dollars in supply too…

But instead every report we get some lame a** cheerleading or related…talk about manufacturing in the us…

America’s Post-Covid Factory Boom Is Running Out of Steam
Companies are laying off employees and cutting production to counter falling orders and rising inventories

Bob TitaJuly 29, 2024 at 12:02 am

Deere & Co., the world’s largest manufacturer of farm equipment by sales, has shed about 2,100 production workers since November, or 15% of its hourly workforce. Rival equipment maker Agco said in June it would cut 6% of its salaried workforce worldwide, or about 800 people, by the end of the year.

Recreational vehicle maker Polaris this week said it would adjust production to cut back on shipments to dealers. The disclosure came as it reported a 49% drop in quarterly income and noted that sales of its motorcycles, boats and off-road vehicles all dropped as consumers pulled back on discretionary purchases.

“Retail has proven weaker than anyone expected,” Chief Executive Michael Speetzen told analysts.

The cloudy picture in manufacturing comes as dozens of companies in the S&P 500 index make quarterly financial disclosures. Their results will be closely monitored as inflation moderates and the Federal Reserve considers cutting interest rates.

Whirlpool WHR -2.01% said a soft housing market is holding down demand for its refrigerators, dish washers and other household appliances. MSC Industrial Direct, a distributor of tools and industrial supplies to manufacturers, said its average daily sales during its recently completed quarter decreased by 7% compared with a year earlier.


Demand for Whirlpool dishwashers and other household appliances is down in part because of the slow housing market. Photo: George Frey/Bloomberg News
The deceleration follows years of robust growth in sales and profits that started during the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic. Homebound consumers unable to spend money on restaurants, concerts and vacations opened their wallets for new dishwashers, pickup trucks and home-remodeling.

Supply-chain bottlenecks made it hard to get manufactured goods when consumers stepped up their spending. Companies ordered more to compensate for goods or materials that were hard to obtain. That stoked inflation. But higher prices eventually reduced consumers’ enthusiasm for buying.

Government spending programs to support big new plants for making semiconductors, electric-vehicle batteries and power-generating infrastructure are offsetting some of the industry weakness. Some defense companies making weapons and other gear as conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza roll on are operating at robust levels.


The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania this spring was making steel tubes for shells crucial to Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Photo: charly triballeau/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Economic data also present a mixed picture. Higher spending on durable goods helped the nation’s economy grow at a faster pace than expected in the second quarter, the government said. Factory output grew in June but at a slower pace than in the month prior.

Jeremy Flack, CEO of Phoenix-based steel and aluminum distributor Flack Global Metals, said steel buyers are keeping their purchases small on the expectation that prices will continue to fall.

“We’re seeing significantly less demand this year than last,” Flack said. “After three years of breaking every record, we’re settling back into the old steel business.”

Weak demand for steel has kept prices on a monthslong slide this year. The current spot-market price of $655 a ton is down 22% from a year ago and off 40% from the beginning of the year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

After years of elevated equipment sales, farmers’ buying power this year is being diminished by lower prices for corn, soybeans and other commodities that the Agriculture Department predicts will reduce farm income by about 25%.

Retail sales of high-horsepower farm tractors in the U.S. and Canada were down 12% in June from the same month last year, while sales of harvesters dropped 29%, the Association of Equipment Manufacturers said.

Illinois-based Deere said it decided to make deep cuts in production in hopes of avoiding large inventories of unsold equipment at dealers, a condition that can hold down factory production when farmers are ready to step up purchases.

“We’re trying to be more proactive at how we manage production and inventories,” Chief Financial Officer Josh Jepsen said.

The production volume for automotive customers at Minneapolis-based metal stamper Dayton Rogers Manufacturing is down by one-third from the volume before the pandemic, said Mike Ingalls, director of operations.

“I don’t see automotive getting better,” he said.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

How has your spending on home improvements and durable consumer goods changed since the pandemic? Join the conversation below.

A number of domestic automakers have slowed production of electric vehicles, stung by factors including weaker-than-expected demand from buyers. As a result, some companies are pulling back investments in new production or have retooled factories to churn out more models with internal combustion engines. The shifts are also rippling through automotive supply chains.

Sluggish economies elsewhere in the world, including China, also are weighing on U.S. companies. Elevator and escalator maker Otis Worldwide slightly raised its profit outlook for the year but pared its sales forecast because of falling demand in China.

The rising value of the U.S. dollar relative to other countries’ currencies makes foreign-made goods cheaper to import, putting U.S. companies at a disadvantage against foreign competitors.

Sohel Sareshwala, president of Accu-Swiss, a California-based manufacturer of small precision parts for the semiconductor, biomedical and food industries, said U.S. tariffs drive inflation and keep domestic prices for stainless steel and other materials he uses higher than his foreign competitors’ material costs.

“The strong dollar, it does make a difference. Their cost for raw material also is significantly lower,” he said.

Write to Bob Tita at [email protected]

[KI Dock Bar]

Thanks for posing that. From what I hear on CNBC, inflation is trending down, unemployment is holding steady, and the economy is slowing...all good signs that the soft landing is still a strong possibility. I admit that most of the time I struggle to understand the financial language but I follow the trends. Recently they are talking about a rotation from the MAG 7 but I am reluctant to think that technology will not drive the market moving forward. As always, the question is will the market go up from here. Most analysist seem to think it will leading into year end.

As I mentioned, I am by no means well versed in economics and finance but I can say that investing in my children's Maryland 529 plans was the best thing we ever did. We started 22 years ago and we invested bi-monthly most of the time, although that was not always possible. There were times we were able to invest extra money. As of now, we have withdrawn the same amount of money that we invested, and our balance is the same amount. Mind boggling to say the least!

[Farfromgeneva]

Thanks for posing that. From what I hear on CNBC, inflation is trending down, unemployment is holding steady, and the economy is slowing...all good signs that the soft landing is still a strong possibility. I admit that most of the time I struggle to understand the financial language but I follow the trends. Recently they are talking about a rotation from the MAG 7 but I am reluctant to think that technology will not drive the market moving forward. As always, the question is will the market go up from here. Most analysist seem to think it will leading into year end.

As I mentioned, I am by no means well versed in economics and finance but I can say that investing in my children's Maryland 529 plans was the best thing we ever did. We started 22 years ago and we invested bi-monthly most of the time, although that was not always possible. There were times we were able to invest extra money. As of now, we have withdrawn the same amount of money that we invested, and our balance is the same amount. Mind boggling to say the least!

It’s incredibly hard to believe in soft landing scenario given history of the Fed. It’s possible. But I don’t trust it. And they are still taking dollars out of the system at the same time consumer credit is declining. Predictions are for fools. Taleb has it right the Nobel prize in economics winners should give their awards back if they had any character. It it’s hard to believe we skate by 15yrs of giveaways and massive increase in balance sheet, conditioning everyone to expect bailouts and buy the dip mentality, and no stress ends with just a soft landing.

Would be some cool s**t if that’s how it plays out but I can’t put my chips all in the middle for that scenario. I just threw some dough into a vehicle that buys inventory trade credit at sofr + 450bps (10% area today) and already have buyers remorse and this fund/guy has never had a default/loss ever.

[KI Dock Bar]

"The borrowing just keeps marching along, reckless and unyielding," said Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, as the U.S. national debt crossed $35T for the first time. Recall that the deficit hit $34T earlier this year and passed $33T just three months before that. The tide of red ink is swelling at a much faster pace than expected amid increased interest costs and mandatory spending on federal programs. The Congressional Budget Office last month even projected that the national debt would rise to a record 122% of GDP in 2034.

Where does this end?