All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

From Defense One in today's D brief

..........That's why Russia's "invasion of Ukraine is prompting a wholesale reorientation of global energy trade, leaving it with a much-diminished position," according to the report, which predicts a decline in Russia's share of internationally traded energy—from 20% in 2021 to 13% in 2030, "while the shares of both the United States and the Middle East rise" in that same period..............

I seem to remember telling you that pipelines have two ends. You made fun of me for it.

Remember our exchange that you were flunking the grad school seminar because you couldn't name a single downside to Putin's stupidity? Remember how I told you Putin was checkers masquerading as chess?

I remember a lot of your wise asz smack talk. So much of it that I don't recall the specific exchange on this issue to which you refer..

Putin had not yet invaded at that point & no one thought he would.
You were still telling me he was the leader of a weak nation of little consequence with a gdp smaller than Italy.
He misjudged the competence of his military & underestmated the competence of Ukraine's mlitary, as did the rest of the world.

If you think Putin's energy blackmail is inconsequential, you're ignoring the disruption it's causing to global energy markets & the global economy, which will only continue to worsen. The EU's embargo of Russian oil does not begin until Dec. The late onset of winter this year allowed the EU to top off NG reserves but they will be drawn down by next winter unless more Russian NG finds it's way back into the global market. New energy supplies can't be brought on that quickly. Soaring energy prices are prompting supply shuffles -- there will be losers. This is driving toward a global recession. Zelensky is telling displaced Ukrainians not to come home yet. Living conditions in increasing parts of Ukraine are becoming pre-industrial age as winter approaches. They're cutting down old growth forests in Germany for firewood.

Europe Is Sacrificing Its Ancient Forests for Energy
https://www.nytimes.com › World › Europe
Sep 7, 2022 — While trees can be replanted, it can take generations for a growing forest to reabsorb the carbon dioxide from burned wood. “Using wood ...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/thr ... es-dwindle

[old salt]

Russia’s 11th Army Corps once defended Kaliningrad, the tiny sliver of Russian land between Lithuania and Poland.

Then it got sent to Ukraine, where the Ukrainians promptly slaughtered them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 1228623375

DocBarrister

This greatly reduces the threat of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. No anvil & no hammer.
As the failure & decimation of the Russian military greatly reduces the threat of Russian invasion to NATO's E flank, including the newly added frontier of Finland.

[a fan]

I remember a lot of your wise asz smack talk.

By "Smack Talk"----you must mean "well reasoned thinking that foreign policy wonks like Old Salt couldn't muster, and that turned out to be 100% correct"?

Best part is that you mocked my opinions and dismissed them. And everything I said proved accurate.

-there are two sides to a pipeline
-you need money to wage war. LOTS of it
-Putin's GDP is a joke, and can't sustain war or keep up with the US's military spending
-Syria was pointless. Whoops
-My question: "why doesn't the US invade Canada?" question has been answered for you, Old Salt. THIS is why
-Putin is playing checkers, and those who say it's Chess are blind

...and there were many more. But I'll leave it here. You were wrong. I was right.

You were still telling me he was the leader of a weak nation of little consequence with a gdp smaller than Italy.

Yep. Still true. And Russia's GDP is falling apart since then.

He misjudged the competence of his military......as did the rest of the world.

I didn't, my man! Give credit where credit is due! I TOLD YOU you need money to wage war and maintain forces halfway around the world, and to engage in invasions. You MOCKED me for pointing this out. Yet here you are, staring at the scoreboard, and you STILL won't give me credit for calling balls and strikes. How's that sub base workin' out for Putin, Old Salt? What did I tell you about that?

Next level stubborn....I have no CLUE why I like that you're this stubborn.

If you think Putin's energy blackmail is inconsequential, you're ignoring the disruption it's causing to global energy markets & the global economy, which will only continue to worsen. The EU's embargo of Russian oil does not begin until Dec. The late onset of winter this year allowed the EU to top off NG reserves but they will be drawn down by next winter unless more Russian NG finds it's way back into the global market. New energy supplies can't be brought on that quickly. Soaring energy prices are prompting supply shuffles -- there will be losers. This is driving toward a global recession.

Yep. Short term pain, no question. I NEVER said there wouldn't be downsides to this stuff for the US and EU. What I told you....to no avail...that the downsides for Putin were ENORMOUS, and you didn't want to hear it.

After the dust settles, and everyone in the EU has secured their energy sources...which they WILL do...how F'ed is Putin and the Russian economy?

Checkers, Old Salt. Just as I told you.

[DocBarrister]

The losses sustained by Russia are stunning. By Ukraine’s count, nearly 70,000 Russian troops have been killed during the ten months of fighting in Ukraine.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.

ON Friday, October 28, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence published updated figures of combat losses inflicted on Russian forces since the beginning of the war – with hundreds more soldiers losing their lives.

In the updated Russian combat losses, Ukraine’s MoD announced that around 480 more soldiers from Russia were reportedly killed by Ukrainian forces on Thursday, October 27.

This takes the number of Russian soldiers killed during battles in Ukraine to 69,700.

… A detailed breakdown shows that the loss of the 14 Russian APCs now means Ukraine has destroyed 5378 in total since the beginning of the conflict, while the destruction of eight more Russian artillery systems means that Putin’s army has now lost 1698 in total.

Ukraine’s destruction of nine Russian tanks means that Russia has lost 2640 in total, while the loss of another Russian aircraft means Putin’s forces have now had 272 planes shot down in Ukraine.

Three Russian drones were downed by Ukrainian air defence systems meaning Russia has lost 1401 in total.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/10/28/r ... at-losses/

On average, Russia is losing about 264 tanks, 27 planes, 170 artillery systems, 548 armored personnel carriers, and 6,970 soldiers EACH MONTH.



There isn’t a single nation on Earth today that could sustain such losses and win a war.

On top of those losses, Russia cannot replace their weapons because of sanctions and certainly cannot replace their troops.

Russia has already lost the conventional war. Defeat for Russia in the conventional war is now inevitable and just a matter of time.

Now the question is whether a desperate, defeated Putin will try to steal a victory by using unconventional (aka nuclear or chemical) weapons.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

I remember a lot of your wise asz smack talk.

By "Smack Talk"----you must mean "well reasoned thinking that foreign policy wonks like Old Salt couldn't muster, and that turned out to be 100% correct"?

Best part is that you mocked my opinions and dismissed them. And everything I said proved accurate.

-there are two sides to a pipeline
Like the ones being built from Russia to China.

-you need money to wage war. LOTS of it
Yes you do. Who do you think is funding this war on Ukraine's behalf AND propping up their economy ?
-Putin's GDP is a joke, and can't sustain war or keep up with the US's military spending
We can't sustain this level of support for Ukraine & do what we need to do in WPac to deter Xi from seizing Taiwan.
Where do we get our chips then ?
-Syria was pointless. Whoops ISIS is no longer a threat. Their caliphate is gone.
-My question: "why doesn't the US invade Canada?" question has been answered for you, Old Salt. THIS is why
-Putin is playing checkers, and those who say it's Chess are blind

...and there were many more. But I'll leave it here. You were wrong. I was right.

You were still telling me he was the leader of a weak nation of little consequence with a gdp smaller than Italy.

Yep. Still true. And Russia's GDP is falling apart since then.

He misjudged the competence of his military......as did the rest of the world.

I didn't, my man! Give credit where credit is due! I TOLD YOU you need money to wage war and maintain forces halfway around the world, and to engage in invasions. You MOCKED me for pointing this out. Yet here you are, staring at the scoreboard, and you STILL won't give me credit for calling balls and strikes. How's that sub base workin' out for Putin, Old Salt? They're using it. It allows them to keep an attack sub in the E Med shadowing our carrier strike group there. What did I tell you about that?
You're smarter than all the western leaders who expected Kyiv to fall in 48 hrs, including Biden who offered Zelinsky & his govt a flight out to set up a govt in exile in Poland.

Next level stubborn....I have no CLUE why I like that you're this stubborn.

If you think Putin's energy blackmail is inconsequential, you're ignoring the disruption it's causing to global energy markets & the global economy, which will only continue to worsen. The EU's embargo of Russian oil does not begin until Dec. The late onset of winter this year allowed the EU to top off NG reserves but they will be drawn down by next winter unless more Russian NG finds it's way back into the global market. New energy supplies can't be brought on that quickly. Soaring energy prices are prompting supply shuffles -- there will be losers. This is driving toward a global recession.

Yep. Short term pain, no question. I NEVER said there wouldn't be downsides to this stuff for the US and EU. What I told you....to no avail...that the downsides for Putin were ENORMOUS, and you didn't want to hear it.

After the dust settles, and everyone in the EU has secured their energy sources...which they WILL do...how F'ed is Putin and the Russian economy?
They'll sell it to China, India & the developing world.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-02-04/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... story.html
Western countries have imposed sanctions on Russian oil, but they haven’t touched Russian gas. Thus, almost 80% of the LNG that the Kremlin has exported so far this year has gone to European and Asian nations that have imposed some sort of punitive measures against Vladimir Putin. They are paying market prices for the gas, and wiring the money directly to the Russian president’s supporters.Putting China aside, Japan, France and Spain account for much of the purchases. On their current trajectory, Russian LNG sales will hit an annual record high in 2022, according to estimates based on tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Between January and September, shipments have averaged 2.78 million metric tons a month, compared with an average of 2.62 million for the full 2021 year and an average of 2.56 million in 2019, before the pandemic.

Spain, the world’s sixth-largest LNG buyer, has imported so far in 2022 more from Russia than any other year. Belgium is on track also to beat its own annual record. And France has bought about 6% more between January and September than during the whole of 2021.

The purchases show how Russia continues to exploit the Achilles heel of Europe and Northeast Asia: their dependency on natural gas. In Japan, that geopolitical tool is quietly working, with Tokyo taking a timid policy response against Russia. While top American and European energy companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc have left Russia, the Japanese government has counseled its domestic energy champions to stay. Japan has also insisted on excluding oil sales from a key Russian energy project from the G-7 oil price cap.The LNG flows also show how Russia plays a cat-and-mouse game with its gas buyers in the West, shutting down some exports but keeping others open, cashing in record prices and using them as political and economic leverage. It’s part of an economic hybrid war that Putin mastered as a former KGB intelligence officer.Should Europe continue buying Russian LNG? The moral case is obvious: no. And, above all, not from a Russian terminal built to bypass, if only partially, the now-defunct Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The economic case is less clear cut: Next year, Europe would need all the LNG it can get hold of to rebuild, again, its gas stockpiles before a fresh heating season starts. As the International Monetary Fund put it earlier this week: “Winter 2022 will be challenging for Europe, but winter 2023 will likely be worse.” If the war in Ukraine continues, the continent needs the shipments. The benefit for Europe, avoiding a gas shortage next year, is probably larger than the benefit for Russia via extra revenue. From a pure economic view, it perhaps makes sense to buy from Russia. But the geopolitical case is as simple as the moral one: As long as Europe buys Russian gas, whether via pipeline or LNG carrier like the Pskov, it would be at the mercy of Putin. It’s a seller’s market — and the seller, none other than the Russian president, can decide at his discretion when to close the valve or stop the ships.

Checkers, Old Salt. Just as I told you.

[a fan]

Like the ones being built from Russia to China.

Yeah. Russia's last choice. Any idea why they didn't do this first, if it's so awesome?

Who do you think is funding this war on Ukraine's behalf AND propping up their economy ?

Meh. What's our GDP? We've been funding these ventures all over the world since before I was born. Suddenly, after 60 years, you find your calculator. We're still sending billions to Israel, ffs. Obviously we've got money to burn.

We can't sustain this level of support for Ukraine & do what we need to do in WPac to deter Xi from seizing Taiwan. Where do we get our chips then ?

We had a full invasion of TWO countries post 9/11.....AND because Republicans can't add, Bush cut the F out of taxes to make sure we had to borrow trillions to pay for it. Next time? When you've got a Republican in office, tell them to raise taxes. That'll fix the ledger.

ISIS is no longer a threat. Their caliphate is gone.

Great. Shut down the patriot act and the Dept. of Homeland security. We can give that money to Ukraine and have billions left over. Great idea!

You're smarter than all the western leaders who expected Kyiv to fall in 48 hrs, including Boden who offered Zelinsky & his govt a flight out to set up a govt in exile in Poland.

You forgot to add yourself to that list...and forgot to add how smug you were in your assessments, and how dismissive you were of mine. Turns out? You were wrong.

They'll sell it to China, India & the developing world.

He hopes. And at a lower price. Why do you think he sells to the EU?

The purchases show how Russia continues to exploit the Achilles heel of Europe and Northeast Asia: their dependency on natural gas

Yep. But that's all short term. What's the medium and long term plan, OS?

You know, AT SOME POINT, you have to start looking at Putin's problems. Problems that are growing, not shrinking. Those Russian soldiers have to survive the front this winter, too.

[DMac]

The losses sustained by Russia are stunning. By Ukraine’s count, nearly 70,000 Russian troops have been killed during the ten months of fighting in Ukraine.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.
DocBarrister

??
https://www.historynet.com/60-years-ago ... n-vietnam/
https://www.historyandheadlines.com/jan ... etnam-war/
Eight years?

[Farfromgeneva]

The losses sustained by Russia are stunning. By Ukraine’s count, nearly 70,000 Russian troops have been killed during the ten months of fighting in Ukraine.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.
DocBarrister

??
https://www.historynet.com/60-years-ago ... n-vietnam/
https://www.historyandheadlines.com/jan ... etnam-war/
Eight years?

It’s just some pruning. Human capital supply chain management.

[DocBarrister]

The losses sustained by Russia are stunning. By Ukraine’s count, nearly 70,000 Russian troops have been killed during the ten months of fighting in Ukraine.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.
DocBarrister

??
https://www.historynet.com/60-years-ago ... n-vietnam/
https://www.historyandheadlines.com/jan ... etnam-war/
Eight years?

The vast majority of U.S. casualties in Vietnam occurred from 1965 to 1972.

https://www.archives.gov/research/milit ... statistics

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

The losses sustained by Russia are stunning. By Ukraine’s count, nearly 70,000 Russian troops have been killed during the ten months of fighting in Ukraine.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.
DocBarrister

??
https://www.historynet.com/60-years-ago ... n-vietnam/
https://www.historyandheadlines.com/jan ... etnam-war/
Eight years?

It’s just some pruning. Human capital supply chain management.

That’s the finance guy perspective.

DocBarrister

[DMac]

The losses sustained by Russia are stunning. By Ukraine’s count, nearly 70,000 Russian troops have been killed during the ten months of fighting in Ukraine.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.
DocBarrister

??
https://www.historynet.com/60-years-ago ... n-vietnam/
https://www.historyandheadlines.com/jan ... etnam-war/
Eight years?

The vast majority of U.S. casualties in Vietnam occurred from 1965 to 1972.

https://www.archives.gov/research/milit ... statistics

DocBarrister

That still doesn't make a bit over 58K killed in eight years.
The instant I saw that I knew it wasn't right.

[DocBarrister]

Like the ones being built from Russia to China.

Yeah. Russia's last choice. Any idea why they didn't do this first, if it's so awesome?

Who do you think is funding this war on Ukraine's behalf AND propping up their economy ?

Meh. What's our GDP? We've been funding these ventures all over the world since before I was born. Suddenly, after 60 years, you find your calculator. We're still sending billions to Israel, ffs. Obviously we've got money to burn.

We can't sustain this level of support for Ukraine & do what we need to do in WPac to deter Xi from seizing Taiwan. Where do we get our chips then ?

We had a full invasion of TWO countries post 9/11.....AND because Republicans can't add, Bush cut the F out of taxes to make sure we had to borrow trillions to pay for it. Next time? When you've got a Republican in office, tell them to raise taxes. That'll fix the ledger.

ISIS is no longer a threat. Their caliphate is gone.

Great. Shut down the patriot act and the Dept. of Homeland security. We can give that money to Ukraine and have billions left over. Great idea!

You're smarter than all the western leaders who expected Kyiv to fall in 48 hrs, including Boden who offered Zelinsky & his govt a flight out to set up a govt in exile in Poland.

You forgot to add yourself to that list...and forgot to add how smug you were in your assessments, and how dismissive you were of mine. Turns out? You were wrong.

They'll sell it to China, India & the developing world.

He hopes. And at a lower price. Why do you think he sells to the EU?

The purchases show how Russia continues to exploit the Achilles heel of Europe and Northeast Asia: their dependency on natural gas

Yep. But that's all short term. What's the medium and long term plan, OS?

You know, AT SOME POINT, you have to start looking at Putin's problems. Problems that are growing, not shrinking. Those Russian soldiers have to survive the front this winter, too.

The U.S. should seek 100% “reimbursement” from the $330 billion in Russian frozen assets for all aid provided to Ukraine and the allies, plus interest, plus a “war management fee”, plus a “destination charge”, plus an “environmental impact fee”, plus a “fee calculation fee”, plus an “escalation penalty fee”, plus a “shipping and handling fee”, plus “training and orientation fee”, plus an “activity fee” … $100 billion should cover it.

There’s plenty of frozen Russian money to go around … don’t know what the big woop is.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

The losses sustained by Russia are stunning. By Ukraine’s count, nearly 70,000 Russian troops have been killed during the ten months of fighting in Ukraine.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.
DocBarrister

??
https://www.historynet.com/60-years-ago ... n-vietnam/
https://www.historyandheadlines.com/jan ... etnam-war/
Eight years?

The vast majority of U.S. casualties in Vietnam occurred from 1965 to 1972.

https://www.archives.gov/research/milit ... statistics

DocBarrister

That still doesn't make a bit over 58K killed in eight years.
The instant I saw that I knew it wasn't right.

Yeah … I think you’re missing the point.

The horror of the Vietnam War was once illustrated by a famed Life Magazine issue in which the faces of the 242 Americans killed in just one week were posted in the magazine.

https://www.life.com/history/faces-of-t ... june-1969/

In Ukraine, the report is that 400 Russians died in a single day yesterday.

Vietnam was a nightmare for American troops, and I have taken care of veterans of that war at VA hospitals.

The Russian casualties are accumulating at a higher order of magnitude.

DocBarrister

[DMac]

Nope, Doc, I'm not missing a thing. Here's what you said and it's not right.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.
DocBarrister

You could just say, my bad, I phukked that up a little bit but I guess that's not going to happen.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Nope, Doc, I'm not missing a thing. Here's what you said and it's not right.

By comparison, the United States lost a bit over 58,000 troops in eight YEARS of combat in Vietnam.
DocBarrister

You could just say, my bad, I phukked that up a little bit but I guess that's not going to happen.

I don’t know so I am asking…..Was it more than 58,000 or less time? I am going to look it up.

[DMac]

It was more time (years).

[Typical Lax Dad]

It was more time (years).

Thanks.

[DMac]

This is interesting, I've heard talk of there being a disproportionate number blacks drafted and sent to Vietnam during that fustercluck. Looks like it would be hard to prove by these numbers.

The total number of American personnel who were KIA or died non-hostile deaths, were enlisted personnel with a casualty number of 50,441. The total number of officer casualties, commissioned and warrant, are 7,877. The following is a chart of all casualties, listed by race, and in descending order. [88]

White-49,830 Black-7,243 Hispanic-349 Hawaiian/Pacific Islander-229 American Indian/Alaska Native-226
Non-Hispanic (other race)-229 Asian-139

Will say though, was stationed on a joint operation with the 101st Airborne in Tan My and there was a disproportionate number of blacks in that outfit. Those numbers surprise me.

[old salt]

But that's all short term. What's the medium and long term plan, OS?

You know, AT SOME POINT, you have to start looking at Putin's problems. Problems that are growing, not shrinking. Those Russian soldiers have to survive the front this winter, too.

AT SOME POINT you have to start looking at the impact of prolonging this war.
WaIt until the diesel & home heating oil shortages take effect in the US.

[NattyBohChamps04]

But that's all short term. What's the medium and long term plan, OS?

You know, AT SOME POINT, you have to start looking at Putin's problems. Problems that are growing, not shrinking. Those Russian soldiers have to survive the front this winter, too.

AT SOME POINT you have to start looking at the impact of prolonging this war.
WaIt until the diesel & home heating oil shortages take effect in the US.

Ok, what's your solution if we have diesel & home heating oil shortages? What's your modest proposal?