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WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote:

Tecumseh wrote:

WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote:The new shiny doors have opened. Thanks, Matt.

Welcome to the new BOGSAT. Fall 2018 - Spring 2019 Edition.

W

Greetings from NAPSTOWN

Let's get this party started !

FORE

"T"

Yep, here we are. And if the previous Moderator and TS never edits or deletes another one of our posts:

YAY!

Be careful the previous Moderator is omnipresent and currently lurking in your Lab . Be afraid , be very afraid !

Check your Peropsec

“T”

Another dusty LP refugee arrives. Any word on Fall Ball scrimmages?

Hoponboard wrote:Another dusty LP refugee arrives. Any word on Fall Ball scrimmages?

Who fished you out of the water?!?

Welcome to Matt’s place!

DocBarrister

Tecumseh wrote:

WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote:

Tecumseh wrote:
Greetings from NAPSTOWN

Let's get this party started !

FORE

"T"

Yep, here we are. And if the previous Moderator and TS never edits or deletes another one of our posts:

YAY!

Be careful the previous Moderator is omnipresent and currently lurking in your Lab . Be afraid , be very afraid !

Check your Peropsec

“T”

I know he’s here, and I’m ribbing him. And he’s not in my lab. He’d need to be wearing lead.

HopFan16 wrote:Well...it finally happened. So ridiculously bad of Active to close it without warning in the middle of the night. In any case, grateful this place exists and hopefully it starts to take off through word of mouth.

I suppose if they announced a date for closure, somebody (perhaps multiple sombodies) would have been tempted to try to write a crawler.

P.S. No joy looking for recent JHU forum posts on the Wayback Machine.

Hoponboard wrote:Another dusty LP refugee arrives. Any word on Fall Ball scrimmages?

If the teams are the same looks like the Headstrong event is in Albany this year on October 13th. It is on the calendar, but doesn't say which teams yet.

I got an email the other day that the annual Golf Outing is on the first Friday of October (5 OCT) with the Alumni game following on Saturday 6 OCT. I haven’t been to it in years, but I think that cookout gathering will be that Saturday night as well, if they’re doing it.

W

Hello All! "scratching my mosquito bites!" and there finally is a "we want more" official shirt...

A welcome addition (and welcome yourself), but I am still partial to https://hopkinssports.cbsi-store.com/ca ... ult/?q=nag

Joey makes the cover of the IL recruiting issue. Have to assume he'll be getting the #1 ranking (just making an observation, not lending credence to said ranking's value, or lack thereof).

Hope he's able to deal with all the pressure and expectations.

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... iled/53037

I think Joey is or will be a worthy number one ranked recruit in the 2018 class, but overall I just can't put too much stock in IL anymore. Too much of their evaluations are done at IL tournaments, and they clearly are not getting out to enough independent events or high school games to really do this process justice despite the constrained resources.

Agree 100%, he is the real deal and should have an outstanding career. Inside Lacrosse like many other publications doesn't know what to do to stay in business. Covering lacrosse games a month after they happened won't work, so basically they are in the camp/prospect event business. That is where the money is, and the ranking is a little side bar that can generate some cash and they drip out the lists on a pay per visit on line system. A one year digital subscription is $29.95 and here are the categories and dates:

Wednesday, Sept. 5
—Girls’ Rising Junior Young Gun Rankings
—Boys’ Rising Junior Young Gun Rankings
Thursday, Sept. 6
—Digital Edition will be live in Apple and Google Play stores
Monday, Sept. 10
—Power 100 Men’s Incoming Freshman Rankings
—Power 100 Women’s Incoming Freshman Rankings
Tuesday, Sept. 11
—Boys’ Rising Senior Young Gun Rankings
—Girls’ Rising Senior Young Gun Rankings
Wednesday, Sept 12
—Boys’ Top Incoming Attackmen
—Girls’ Top Incoming Attackers
Thursday, Sept. 13
—Boys’ Top Incoming Midfielders
—Girls’ Top Incoming Midfielders
Friday, Sept. 14
—Boys’ Top Incoming Face-Off Specialists
Monday, Sept. 17
—Boys’ Top Incoming Defensemen
—Girls’ Top Incoming Defenders

There has to be 1,000 kids on all these lists and every one of their parent will kick up the money, plus others, it's probably 50k plus in revenue.

It’s all a shammockery. Nothing is sure until you prove it on the field against D1 competition.

Curious thing: what were the reasons for IL canning their doubleheader games at M&T Stadium?

They got incredibly lucky with the early season weather for the several years that they ran them.

Beyond their likely losing their shirts in making it happen? At least one year was a triple-header; I witnessed it in person.

DaneFan wrote:I think Joey is or will be a worthy number one ranked recruit in the 2018 class, but overall I just can't put too much stock in IL anymore. Too much of their evaluations are done at IL tournaments, and they clearly are not getting out to enough independent events or high school games to really do this process justice despite the constrained resources.

When was the last time a player ranked #1 was the #1 player in college as a junior or senior? Rambo was close but he was hosed out of his #1 ranking at the end......(not knocking any former #1 players but was just wondering) Usually #1 players do go on to be productive players in college.... so a player like Epstein has a very high floor. I like what I have seen of him.

Pretty much everyone near the top of those rankings wind up having solid (or better) careers. There aren't a whole lot of misses in the top 10 each year:

Green = met or exceeded expectations
Red = underperformed relative to expectations
Purple = borderline case

2013 - mostly very good
1 Jordan Evans, Syracuse
2 Matt Rambo, Maryland
3 Tim Rotanz, Maryland
4 Zed Williams, Virginia
5 Zach Currier, Princeton
6 Jack Bruckner, Duke
7 Will Reynolds, Princeton
8 Connor Cannizzaro, Maryland
9 Stephen Kelly, North Carolina
10 Zach Miller, Denver

2014 - tough for the bottom of the top 10
1 Shack Stanwick, Johns Hopkins
2 Joel Tinney, Johns Hopkins
3 Greg Pelton, Duke
4 Mikey Wynne, Notre Dame
5 Craig Berge, Georgetown
6 Ryan Keenan, Penn State
7 Brinton Valis, Johns Hopkins
8 Sean Cerrone, Villanova
9 Joe Kenna, North Carolina
10 Jake Seau, Duke

2015 - a couple guys did not pan out due to injury
1. Ryan Conrad, Virginia
2. Ryder Garnsey, Notre Dame
3. Dan Bucaro, Georgetown
4. Drew Supinski, Johns Hopkins
5. Cade van Raaphorst, Duke
6. Patrick Spencer, Loyola
7. Noah Lejman, Penn
8. A.J. Barretto, Army
9. James Sullivan, Harvard
10. Alex Woodall, High Point

2016- maybe the best class ever
1 Jeff Teat, Cornell
2 Dox Aitken, Virginia
3 Jared Bernhardt, Maryland
4 Ethan Walker, Denver
5 Ryan McNulty, Loyola
6 Cole Williams, Johns Hopkins
7 Joey Manown, Duke
8 Will Perry, North Carolina
9 Brian Willetts, Notre Dame
10 Michael Sowers, Princeton

2017 class is too early to make a judgment but it's looking like another solid top 10: https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ings/50451

So it looks like about 73% (29/40) of the last few classes' top 10 incoming freshmen have hit while a handful of others are questionable and only 7 or so are definite misses—and many of those are due to mitigating circumstances like injuries. If you're a top 10 IL player you have a very good chance of being a good or great collegiate player.

That said, I completely agree that they're still mostly meaningless and we shouldn't pay attention to them. But it's early September and there's very little else to talk about, which I suppose is why IL comes out with them around this time of year every year.

For the sake of devil's advocate I will nit pick with your list a bit - To me a top 10 recruit to meet or exceed expectations they need to be at least a one time or multiple AA.

I agree with most of your 2013 list - Matt Rambo delivered big time and Zach Currier still has to be the most under appreciated player I can think of in recent history. I would quibble with some of the guys you have in green, but overall the 2013 class hit the mark.

I think the 2014 class missed the mark even more than you listed. I am torn on Shack. One of the highest IQ players ever, did have good or even great stats, but as an X attackmen when you can routinely be taken away with a shorty, at least by my definition he was a borderline green, especially as the consensus number one. I would disagree on Wynne, who wound up being a great finisher, but not an overall elite attackmen. Tinney no branier green, and if he had been used less on wings and defense would have had even better offensive stats IMO.

On your 2015's I would quibble with you on Bucaro, Barretto, and Woodall in particular. After a good freshmen year I wouldn't throw him in the mix as an elite FOGO.

Pretty much in total agreement with the 2016's. One of the best classes ever although Manown, and Perry have to show me more, and I want to see Cole be more consistent. I expect him to have a big year.

DaneFan wrote:For the sake of devil's advocate I will nit pick with your list a bit - To me a top 10 recruit to meet or exceed expectations they need to be at least a one time or multiple AA.

I agree with most of your 2013 list - Matt Rambo delivered big time and Zach Currier still has to be the most under appreciated player I can think of in recent history. I would quibble with some of the guys you have in green, but overall the 2013 class hit the mark.

I think the 2014 class missed the mark even more than you listed. I am torn on Shack. One of the highest IQ players ever, did have good or even great stats, but as an X attackmen when you can routinely be taken away with a shorty, at least by my definition he was a borderline green, especially as the consensus number one. I would disagree on Wynne, who wound up being a great finisher, but not an overall elite attackmen. Tinney no branier green, and if he had been used less on wings and defense would have had even better offensive stats IMO.

On your 2015's I would quibble with you on Bucaro, Barretto, and Woodall in particular. After a good freshmen year I wouldn't throw him in the mix as an elite FOGO.

Pretty much in total agreement with the 2016's. One of the best classes ever although Manown, and Perry have to show me more, and I want to see Cole be more consistent. I expect him to have a big year.

Fair enough. Don't necessarily disagree with any of that, just quickly went through that exercise to show that for the most part, the higher end players do end up having good careers. Whether each one of them met or exceeded their own exact expectations is another discussion. I tried to err on the side of their value relative to the projections of a replacement/average player. So maybe Shack did not meet all the expectations that are associated with being the #1 recruit but he certainly surpassed baseline expectations for an incoming attackman given he's now 7th all-time at Hopkins in assists and 13th in points, despite dealing with some debilitating injuries throughout his career. So it's not like he's a "miss" in any sense of the word. You could argue that he did not finish his career as the best player in his class but he's still very much a "hit" in terms of his original projection.

Of course, the fact that most of these top 10 guys end up being good does not negate the fact that there are so many great AA caliber players that are nowhere to be found on any of these lists. They may end up being mostly accurate but they're far from comprehensive, and your point still stands that they don't do a very good job of finding the off-the-radar guys. But I guess that's what makes them off the radar.

Agree - with rare exceptions Ty and the guys at IL get the top 10ish right on, after that it is much more of a crap shoot.

DaneFan wrote:Agree - with rare exceptions Ty and the guys at IL get the top 10ish right on, after that it is much more of a crap shoot.

The model seems to be the best players play at the best clubs so if you watch the "best clubs" you will see the "best players"... Unfortunately, it does not quite work like that. Its a good effort but the competition is not robust and consistent enough to get a good handle on how players are going to compete. The practice of playing down also distorts competition. Later recruiting will help some. I would rarely recruit a player that is old for his grade...... the pay to be recruited model also shapes the lens.