DaneFan wrote:For the sake of devil's advocate I will nit pick with your list a bit - To me a top 10 recruit to meet or exceed expectations they need to be at least a one time or multiple AA.
I agree with most of your 2013 list - Matt Rambo delivered big time and Zach Currier still has to be the most under appreciated player I can think of in recent history. I would quibble with some of the guys you have in green, but overall the 2013 class hit the mark.
I think the 2014 class missed the mark even more than you listed. I am torn on Shack. One of the highest IQ players ever, did have good or even great stats, but as an X attackmen when you can routinely be taken away with a shorty, at least by my definition he was a borderline green, especially as the consensus number one. I would disagree on Wynne, who wound up being a great finisher, but not an overall elite attackmen. Tinney no branier green, and if he had been used less on wings and defense would have had even better offensive stats IMO.
On your 2015's I would quibble with you on Bucaro, Barretto, and Woodall in particular. After a good freshmen year I wouldn't throw him in the mix as an elite FOGO.
Pretty much in total agreement with the 2016's. One of the best classes ever although Manown, and Perry have to show me more, and I want to see Cole be more consistent. I expect him to have a big year.
Fair enough. Don't necessarily disagree with any of that, just quickly went through that exercise to show that for the most part, the higher end players do end up having good careers. Whether each one of them met or exceeded their own exact expectations is another discussion. I tried to err on the side of their value relative to the projections of a replacement/average player. So maybe Shack did not meet all the expectations that are associated with being the #1 recruit but he certainly surpassed baseline expectations for an incoming attackman given he's now 7th all-time at Hopkins in assists and 13th in points, despite dealing with some debilitating injuries throughout his career. So it's not like he's a "miss" in any sense of the word. You could argue that he did not finish his career as the best player in his class but he's still very much a "hit" in terms of his original projection.
Of course, the fact that most of these top 10 guys end up being good does not negate the fact that there are so many great AA caliber players that are nowhere to be found on any of these lists. They may end up being mostly accurate but they're far from comprehensive, and your point still stands that they don't do a very good job of finding the off-the-radar guys. But I guess that's what makes them off the radar.
