old salt wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 9:35 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 12:49 pm
Read my other posts today in this thread on this topic, cradle. I already addressed why it's not terribly likely that Iran was directly involved, green lit etc...
but yes, possible.
Iran is Shia and are deeply in bed therefore with Hezbollah, but not with Hamas which is Sunni. And Hezbollah does not appear to have been privy to this massive attack, wasn't prepared to take part, etc. That doesn't mean they don't have any relationship, but it's an uneasy, enemy of my enemy sort of relationship.
Of course, it's possible. So, I'm not "sure" of anything re who funded and helped organize and green lit this attack. And I never claimed to be "sure".
However, makes more sense that Qatar and Egypt were the primary sources of weapons for Hamas, though some may well be Iranian made. They DO fund Hamas.
And there's a decent chance that Russia has had a hand in all this too. They don't care about Shia v Sunni, their objectives are different.
The 2 best intel services in the world were taken by surprise, but you're darn sure that Iran was just a spectator. okie doke.
Neither Egypt nor Qatar stand to benefit from this.
ok, you're fond of saying "lying". That's an absolute bald-faced lie. I've repeatedly said I'm not sure, much less "darn sure" of anything to do with the chain of responsibility for Hamas's action, which I just heard described, IMO accurately, as a "pogrom". The worst murder of Jews since the Holocaust. American citizens among the dead and hostages.
Here's what I do think: Iran is the chief sponsor of terror organizations throughout the ME. No doubt. And that includes financial support for Hamas, though their primary Palestinian proxies are Hezbollah, Shia. There's a reason why Hezbollah is so much better armed and trained than Hamas, and it's not just because Gaza has been under embargo. (though that plays a major factor). Hamas has also received support, weapons and training from Iran. That said, they also have been supported through Egypt and Qatar. These groups are not natural allies, but they do share common cause in their hate for Jews and Israel and for the Great Satan, the US.
My doubts about how closely Iran was involved with this specific atrocity are primarily because Hezbollah does not appear to have been prepared to participate. That doesn't appear to have been a conscious choice, as Hezbollah seems to now getting organized to participate or at least have that option. They've lobbed some rockets, and declared 'solidarity', but not the sort of organization that would suggest close involvement.
The focus for the moment should be on uprooting and destroying Hamas...there are no easy answers as to how to do this without massive loss of civilian life, potentially tens of thousands of innocent lives lost in one of the most densely populated places in the world, 2.2 million people, mostly civilians. I dread this process.
I don't think we should be rooting for Israeli or US strikes on Iranian nuclear, energy or any other aspect of Iran.That may well come if they are found to be directly complicit, but widening this war could be only the more disastrous. However, I think we and allies should recognize that Iran remains a malign influence in the ME and we should re-strengthen our posture towards them.
Separating all this from the Palestinian situation, I think a majority of Israelis and a majority of Palestinians want peace and a two state solution. But terrible leadership and extremists poison this, again and again and again. Once this tragic set of events are behind us, that needs to be a priority.
I think other actions like normalization of relations with Arab states are important, but are not "peace", and can never be a complete answer. They should not be touted as such because that gives a false sense of security. There must be a resolution in which Palestinians can thrive alongside Israelis...in peace. Which is not remotely close to happening...I'm not so fatalistic as some of my friends who believe it's impossible to ever occur.