All Things Russia & Ukraine

[a fan]

It's not making excuses to understand & take account of what motivates your enemy.
It's essential to countering him & not blundering into stupid wars like this one, in which we have no strategic interest.

Sure we do.

You REALLY can't name one..... and your Grad School seminar grade depends on it?

[old salt]

It's not making excuses to understand & take account of what motivates your enemy.
It's essential to countering him & not blundering into stupid wars like this one, in which we have no strategic interest.

Sure we do.

You REALLY can't name one..... and your Grad School seminar grade depends on it?

We do now. Several. It's a war & we're in it up to our neck. Our credibility as a global superpower is at stake.
We are asserting ourselves as the Guardians & enforcers of the liberal international world order.
Our pivot to Asia has been reversed. We've made Ukraine our 51st state. We can't let them lose.
We're on the ledge of chaos.

[a fan]

It's not making excuses to understand & take account of what motivates your enemy.
It's essential to countering him & not blundering into stupid wars like this one, in which we have no strategic interest.

Sure we do.

You REALLY can't name one..... and your Grad School seminar grade depends on it?

We do now.

Yeah, no.

Name them. You've got all this figured out.....and you, like VDH, are lecturing everyone else without being able to say what to do, other than the political platitude of "this is all on Zelensky to cede territory and surrender immediately".

This is right up there with boy-genius Kushner solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

So what is the strategic interest of helping Ukraine? Name one. Heck, I'll put a star by your name if you can name two.

[old salt]

It's not making excuses to understand & take account of what motivates your enemy.
It's essential to countering him & not blundering into stupid wars like this one, in which we have no strategic interest.

Sure we do.

You REALLY can't name one..... and your Grad School seminar grade depends on it?

We do now.

Yeah, no.

Name them. You've got all this figured out.....and you, like VDH, are lecturing everyone else without being able to say what to do, other than the political platitude of "this is all on Zelensky to cede territory and surrender immediately".

This is right up there with boy-genius Kushner solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

So what is the strategic interest of helping Ukraine? Name one. Heck, I'll put a star by your name if you can name two.

I already did, in my last post & several before it.

[a fan]

I already did, in my last post & several before it.

No. You didn't.

That's "Biden is doing it wrong" jingoism.

Lay it out. Bullet points will suffice.

I'll help you, since this is apparently so hard for someone with your training to name strategic interests surrounding Urkaine and this war.

-control of the Black Sea and shipping in and out of it.


There. That's one. Give me others.

[DocBarrister]

The U.S. has a pretty good source inside Putin’s regime.

A member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle has voiced disagreement directly to the Russian president in recent weeks over his handling of the war in Ukraine, according to information obtained by U.S. intelligence.


The criticism marks the clearest indication yet of turmoil within Russia’s leadership over the stewardship of a war that has gone disastrously wrong for Moscow, forcing Putin last month to order the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of troops in a desperate bid to reverse recent battlefield losses.


The information was deemed significant enough that it was included in President Biden’s daily intelligence briefing and shared with other U.S. officials, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.


The discontent that the member of Putin’s inner circle expressed related to what the insider considered mismanagement of the war effort and mistakes being made by those executing the military campaign, according to one of the people.


The insider’s identity could not be confirmed, although the name has been included in U.S. intelligence reporting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... e-dissent/

DocBarrister

[old salt]

I already did, in my last post & several before it.

No. You didn't.

That's "Biden is doing it wrong" jingoism.

Lay it out. Bullet points will suffice.

I'll help you, since this is apparently so hard for someone with your training to name strategic interests surrounding Urkaine and this war.

-control of the Black Sea and shipping in and out of it.


There. That's one. Give me others.

Here's what our bipartisan elite leadership was telling us going into this war about our strategic interests in Ukraine.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/u ... n-ukraine/
Do you hear anything in their litany that justifies taking us to the brink of nuclear war ?
Tenet, Kissinger & GHW Bush (in his chicken Kiev speech) all tried to warn us.

When you cut to the chase, it's about the continued dismemberment of what was the European portion of the former USSR & the Russian nation-state before that. To drag as much of that territory as possible into the western sphere, free from the influence of the Kremlin. It's a continuation of the Cold War struggle to sustain 2 of the 3 founding objectives of NATO -- to keep the US in & Russia out of Europe.

You are significantly younger than me, but when we were in college, could you imagine a Russia which did not include Minsk, Kiev & Odessa ?
Russia had to be chopped up so that it could never threaten Europe again, as we reunited a chastened & now pacifist Germany, bent on Euro domination by economic means. ...so why is the US in the lead on this, rather than the EU ?

[Seacoaster(1)]

Protecting and vindicating the world order -- the basic rules of international law, respect for sovereign borders, respect for international compacts, and non-aggression provisions in the UN Charter and elsewhere -- seem like pretty important strategic interests for a nation that does business with every part of the world. Protecting against energy blackmailers seems pretty important for the EU. What is at risk in Ukraine, whether we like it or not, is all of these important matters that knit together a world that is basically peaceful and respectful of the borders and identities of other nation states. All of this, no matter that your silly palaver is trying endlessly to blame Biden, is plainly laid at the feet of the Russian Union and its leader.

If I was in college in 45 BC, I couldn't imagine a world in which Rome didn't include Northern Africa, Britain, Gaul, and parts of Germania. Can we stop the stupid flashbacks now? The RU reached agreement with Ukraine in 1991. The current war is a continued violation of that international agreement. For better or worse, Putin has presented a test case, a frightening stress test for the West's ability to counter lawlessness. It must be vindicated. Putin is a revisionist power, and has now cast his lot with being a war leader. He has to be controlled and removed if possible. And the West has to help make it happen.

[old salt]

The RU reached agreement with Ukraine in 1991. The current war is a continued violation of that international agreement.

...& somehow, of all the nations of the world, it falls to the USA to enforce that agreement, ...to which we were not a party.

Let's protect that world order. The Russians are coming. US national security begins in Ukraine.

[Seacoaster(1)]

The RU reached agreement with Ukraine in 1991. The current war is a continued violation of that international agreement.

...& somehow, of all the nations of the world, it falls to the USA to enforce that agreement, ...to which we were not a party.

Let's protect that world order. The Russians are coming. US national security begins in Ukraine.

You can roll your eyes, or let an emoji do it for you. That's fine. But there are -- whether we like it or not -- crucial strategic interests at issue in Ukraine and resulting from the Czar's invasion of one of the former Soviet republics. You can be Chamberlain, and VDH can play Daladier in the film version.

[get it to x]

Protecting and vindicating the world order -- the basic rules of international law, respect for sovereign borders, respect for international compacts, and non-aggression provisions in the UN Charter and elsewhere -- seem like pretty important strategic interests for a nation that does business with every part of the world. Protecting against energy blackmailers seems pretty important for the EU. What is at risk in Ukraine, whether we like it or not, is all of these important matters that knit together a world that is basically peaceful and respectful of the borders and identities of other nation states. All of this, no matter that your silly palaver is trying endlessly to blame Biden, is plainly laid at the feet of the Russian Union and its leader.

If I was in college in 45 BC, I couldn't imagine a world in which Rome didn't include Northern Africa, Britain, Gaul, and parts of Germania. Can we stop the stupid flashbacks now? The RU reached agreement with Ukraine in 1991. The current war is a continued violation of that international agreement. For better or worse, Putin has presented a test case, a frightening stress test for the West's ability to counter lawlessness. It must be vindicated. Putin is a revisionist power, and has now cast his lot with being a war leader. He has to be controlled and removed if possible. And the West has to help make it happen.

The "World Order" has no respect for sovereign borders. The EU is a prime example. Look at their reaction to Italians voting in a nationalist. They threatened to use all of the tools at their disposal if Italy elected the "wrong" sort of leader.

The smart set has failed us in Ukraine, which has been a kleptocracy forever. How do you justify actions that have led us to the brink of at least a tactical nuclear exchange? The following commentary has it about right IMHO.

https://townhall.com/columnists/joshham ... e-n2614107

"We are now more than seven months removed from Vladimir Putin's regrettable incursion into eastern Ukraine and Crimea. But despite that elapsed time and all the various developments since then, the United States' formal position on the conflict has changed markedly little. That overly simplified and Manichaean position, in short, is one of Ukrainian maximalism: Putin is evil, Volodymyr Zelensky is noble, and -- here is the big logical leap -- the United States will thus support the Ukrainian effort to retake every square inch of territory in the Donbas and Crimea from its nuclear-armed adversary, seemingly no matter the cost to the U.S. taxpayer.

The formal White House "readout" of President Joe Biden's Tuesday call with Zelensky aptly summarizes the U.S. position: "President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., joined by Vice President Kamala Harris, spoke today with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to underscore that the United States will never recognize Russia's purported annexation of Ukrainian territory. President Biden pledged to continue supporting Ukraine as it defends itself from Russian aggression for as long as it takes ..." (Emphases added.) Translation: We will defend your war to retake every square inch of historically contested and ethnically mixed territory no matter what the people living there say they want, no matter the cost, and despite the fact that the fate of Zelensky's regime in Kyiv is secure.

At this stage in the war, virtually all of this pablum is asinine and counterproductive to the actual U.S. national interest in these contested areas. Our national interest in the Ukrainian theater is not coterminous with Zelensky's absolutist stance; our interest is for de-escalation, detente, and peace. But if we want to achieve those ends -- especially as the threat of nuclear warfare is bursting out into the open, many in the West recklessly double down on calls for Ukraine's ascension to NATO, and the war-hungry Zelensky is himself calling for a NATO-led "preemptive strike" against Russia -- Biden needs to recognize reality and change strategic course immediately.

From day one of Russia's incursion, this column has argued that 1) Ukraine, like Russia, is a deeply corrupt and oligarchic country, and Zelensky is a highly flawed leader; but 2) despite his myriad flaws and status as a pawn of the Davos/NGO globalist class, Zelensky remaining in power in Kyiv is preferable to the obvious alternative of a Belarusian/Alexander Lukashenko-style Moscow puppet state. But Russia, with the exception of a few nearby flare-ups here and there, retreated from Kyiv and its surrounding areas all the way back in May. Put another way, it is clear beyond any reasonable doubt, at this point, that Zelensky isn't going anywhere; he and his government are here to stay. The fate of Kyiv is secure.

At this juncture, the fighting -- and in Russia's case, the recent (likely sham) annexations -- is taking place in four far-eastern subregions of Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, Crimea. Those are the disputed lands that the Biden administration, and "liberal Western democracy" types more broadly, have deemed to be so existentially important to Ukraine and the integrity of "the West" that reconquering them is worth seemingly any military, economic and humanitarian cost -- up to, and very much including, the harrowing specter of open nuclear warfare between NATO and Russia.

Even worse, when it comes to the disputed lands themselves, reputable Gallup polling from 2014 -- the year Putin first marched into Crimea -- showed that 73.9% of Crimeans thought becoming a part of Russia would improve their lives and their families lives (only 5.5% disagreed). As for the various enclaves of the Donbas, such as Luhansk and Donetsk, they are very much divided between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians; Luhansk, for instance, has a nearly even, 50-50 demographic split.

Let's be as clear as possible: The median American citizen does not, and should not, care whether an ethnically divided, strategically unimportant, historically contested Slavic subregion or two in eastern Ukraine ultimately takes orders from Kyiv or Moscow. Elon Musk, in a much-criticized tweet earlier this week, had the right idea: "Ukraine-Russia Peace," he argued, can best be achieved by "Redo(ing) elections of annexed regions (such as Luhansk and Donetsk) under UN supervision," and "Russia leaves if that is the will of the people"; "Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev's mistake)"; "Water supply to Crimea assured"; and "Ukraine remains neutral (between Russia and NATO)."

One can certainly quibble with Musk's details -- the United Nations, for instance, cannot be a trusted, neutral arbiter or supervisor of anything. But this is certainly the right idea for what the U.S., and by extension, the West, should be doing and should be aiming toward. The Biden administration, if it had any common sense, would use any and all leverage to get Zelensky and Putin to the negotiating table as soon as possible, thus unequivocally taking the threat of nuclear catastrophe off the table and extricating the United States and NATO from the harrowing prospect of something no Cold War-era president would have ever countenanced: the open and direct military confrontation with the world's largest nuclear arsenal. That certainly involves disavowing the possibility of NATO membership for Ukraine.

That our present ruling class demonstrates no interest in common sense de-escalation and instead demonstrates a seemingly interminable interest in escalation and Ukrainian territorial maximalism, speaks volumes about how out of touch that ruling class is. If nothing else, hopefully, the American people speak up and begin to rein in our sordid, war-hungry ruling class at the ballot box next month."

[Typical Lax Dad]

The RU reached agreement with Ukraine in 1991. The current war is a continued violation of that international agreement.

...& somehow, of all the nations of the world, it falls to the USA to enforce that agreement, ...to which we were not a party.

Let's protect that world order. The Russians are coming. US national security begins in Ukraine.

We need to cut tail and run.

[Seacoaster(1)]

"... Vladimir Putin's regrettable incursion into eastern Ukraine...."

Thanks for the pro-Putin propaganda. Laughable and sad at the same time. We'll just agree to disagree. And I think the supposed polling of Ukrainians migh now be different than that article suggests. I agree that "the median American" doesn't care or understand the consequences of allowing Putin to leave Ukraine with "Kyiv...secure." I'm just -- how can say this? -- not sure that the "median American's" opinion should be determinative of this important international crisis created by a lawless thug for his dreams of empire. I guess that makes me part of the "smart set."

[jhu72]

"... Vladimir Putin's regrettable incursion into eastern Ukraine...."

Thanks for the pro-Putin propaganda. Laughable and sad at the same time. We'll just agree to disagree. And I think the supposed polling of Ukrainians migh now be different than that article suggests. I agree that "the median American" doesn't care or understand the consequences of allowing Putin to leave Ukraine with "Kyiv...secure." I'm just -- how can say this? -- not sure that the "median American's" opinion should be determinative of this important international crisis created by a lawless thug for his dreams of empire. I guess that makes me part of the "smart set."

+1

[DocBarrister]

All of the pro-Russian, pro-Putin, far-right garbage being disseminated under the guise of “strategic analysis” is really disturbing. It’s true … the pro-fascist movement never really disappeared from America … it just went MAGA.

Meanwhile, Ukraine keeps doing its job and slaughtering the invading Russians. Here are the results just from yesterday and just from Southern Ukraine:

The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 18 Russian howitzers and an Iranian-made Mohajer-6 UAV capable of carrying a multispectral surveillance payload and up to four precision-guided munitions, and killed more than 100 Russian soldiers in southern Ukraine over the course of 6 October.

Source: Operational Command Pivden (South) on Facebook

Details: Russia’s confirmed losses comprise:

105 military personnel;

8 tanks;

18 large-calibre Msta-S and Msta-B howitzers;

1 Pion self-propelled gun;

1 152mm howitzer gun;

4 mortars;

15 armoured vehicles;

3 ammunition dumps in the Bashtanka and Beryslav districts [in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, respectively - ed.].

Another six pieces of Russian military equipment, including several tanks, an armoured combat vehicle, a howitzer and an electronic warfare system, have been severely damaged.

Over the course of the day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed six Orlan-10 reconnaissance drones and one Mohajer-6 drone in the Beryslav and Mykolaiv districts. They also shot down three Shahed-136 drones that attempted to attack Odesa Oblast.

Ukraine’s rocket artillery units carried out 347 firing missions. Meanwhile, Ukrainian aircraft conducted seven airstrikes, striking Russian strong points and concentrations of Russian military personnel and equipment in the Beryslav district and anti-aircraft defence systems in the Kakhovka district [in Kherson Oblast - ed.].

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-armed- ... 21345.html

To give some perspective, the 105 dead Russian soldiers in one day exceeds the pace of the deadliest week for the U.S. during the Vietnam War … May 5-11, 1968 … when North Vietnam launched its so-called “May Offensive”.

And that’s just from Southern Ukraine.

I also continue to be stunned that after more than seven months, Russia has not, and will not, achieve complete air superiority and control.



DocBarrister

[Essexfenwick]

"... Vladimir Putin's regrettable incursion into eastern Ukraine...."

Thanks for the pro-Putin propaganda. Laughable and sad at the same time. We'll just agree to disagree. And I think the supposed polling of Ukrainians migh now be different than that article suggests. I agree that "the median American" doesn't care or understand the consequences of allowing Putin to leave Ukraine with "Kyiv...secure." I'm just -- how can say this? -- not sure that the "median American's" opinion should be determinative of this important international crisis created by a lawless thug for his dreams of empire. I guess that makes me part of the "smart set."

+1

Trump is the “smart set”
Peace and no Russian aggression.

JoeTard and the DeepStateTards have the world on the brink of destruction in just over 1 year of their “WMD in Iraq” level stupidity.

[get it to x]

"... Vladimir Putin's regrettable incursion into eastern Ukraine...."

Thanks for the pro-Putin propaganda. Laughable and sad at the same time. We'll just agree to disagree. And I think the supposed polling of Ukrainians migh now be different than that article suggests. I agree that "the median American" doesn't care or understand the consequences of allowing Putin to leave Ukraine with "Kyiv...secure." I'm just -- how can say this? -- not sure that the "median American's" opinion should be determinative of this important international crisis created by a lawless thug for his dreams of empire. I guess that makes me part of the "smart set."

You mean pro-peace propaganda, right? Interesting you chose this fight between two white peoples as your hill to die on. What about all of the conflict between black and brown peoples all over the world? I guess Sudan didn't have the bomb, so we could just sit back and clutch our pearls about Darfur. But you probably think Zelensky is noble, when he is almost as big a thug as Putin. I wonder if he's taking 10% off the top of all of the aid we're sending. He's Ukraine's "Big Guy".

[DocBarrister]

"... Vladimir Putin's regrettable incursion into eastern Ukraine...."

Thanks for the pro-Putin propaganda. Laughable and sad at the same time. We'll just agree to disagree. And I think the supposed polling of Ukrainians migh now be different than that article suggests. I agree that "the median American" doesn't care or understand the consequences of allowing Putin to leave Ukraine with "Kyiv...secure." I'm just -- how can say this? -- not sure that the "median American's" opinion should be determinative of this important international crisis created by a lawless thug for his dreams of empire. I guess that makes me part of the "smart set."

+1

Trump is the “smart set”
Peace and no Russian aggression.

JoeTard and the DeepStateTards have the world on the brink of destruction in just over 1 year of their “WMD in Iraq” level stupidity.

Aren’t you banned, Peter Brown?

DocBarrister

[Seacoaster(1)]

"... Vladimir Putin's regrettable incursion into eastern Ukraine...."

Thanks for the pro-Putin propaganda. Laughable and sad at the same time. We'll just agree to disagree. And I think the supposed polling of Ukrainians migh now be different than that article suggests. I agree that "the median American" doesn't care or understand the consequences of allowing Putin to leave Ukraine with "Kyiv...secure." I'm just -- how can say this? -- not sure that the "median American's" opinion should be determinative of this important international crisis created by a lawless thug for his dreams of empire. I guess that makes me part of the "smart set."

+1

Trump is the “smart set”
Peace and no Russian aggression.

JoeTard and the DeepStateTards have the world on the brink of destruction in just over 1 year of their “WMD in Iraq” level stupidity.

Aren’t you banned, Peter Brown?

DocBarrister

Three?

[Seacoaster(1)]

"... Vladimir Putin's regrettable incursion into eastern Ukraine...."

Thanks for the pro-Putin propaganda. Laughable and sad at the same time. We'll just agree to disagree. And I think the supposed polling of Ukrainians migh now be different than that article suggests. I agree that "the median American" doesn't care or understand the consequences of allowing Putin to leave Ukraine with "Kyiv...secure." I'm just -- how can say this? -- not sure that the "median American's" opinion should be determinative of this important international crisis created by a lawless thug for his dreams of empire. I guess that makes me part of the "smart set."

You mean pro-peace propaganda, right? Interesting you chose this fight between two white peoples as your hill to die on. What about all of the conflict between black and brown peoples all over the world? I guess Sudan didn't have the bomb, so we could just sit back and clutch our pearls about Darfur. But you probably think Zelensky is noble, when he is almost as big a thug as Putin. I wonder if he's taking 10% off the top of all of the aid we're sending. He's Ukraine's "Big Guy".

The whataboutism is useless to the discussion. Again, we will agree to disagree. And, just guessing here but there are a lot of distinguishing features between the topic here -- Russian adventurism and violence -- and the situation you try to raise.