All Things Russia & Ukraine

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CU88
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by CU88 »

How soon until Old Soviet declares war on Sweden & Finland for violating what is rightfully Putins?

"Finland, Sweden back on path to NATO membership as Turkey drops veto"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 022-06-28/
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Seacoaster(1) »

a fan wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:57 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:55 am
a fan wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:12 am
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:32 am But I do think we need to understand what may be the consequences of a cease-fire and allowing what is effectively a terrorist nation-state to consolidate its territorial thefts.
That's fine....but none of this is up to us. We don't get to make this call.
Agreed. But I am not talking so much about theft of territory from the Ukrainians. I am talking about a world that, as the price of (almost certainly temporary) peace, allows this sort of adventurism, terrorism and destruction of both property and so-called norms to continue to exist. We have been here before.
No. We haven't been through this before. Putin has nukes. If he didn't? Both the US and NATO would have taken care of business months ago.

See: Gulf War.

Both the EU and the US are still trading with Putin. THAT is where the pressure lies. And we're not using it. Russians can still travel to the US, FFS. What the heck is that all about? Are we serious about helping Ukraine, or not?
Certainly the nukes change the calculus, but the basic issue still presents itself and is largely the same: how do we manage the world order, and maintain it, when a nation-state can violate the sovereignty and borders of another nation-state. The question is exactly what was faced when Hitler occupied the Ruhr and expanded his armies and ventured into Czech territory. Appeasement will mean the same thing: escalation of a lawless state actor.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by a fan »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:36 pm Certainly the nukes change the calculus, but the basic issue still presents itself and is largely the same: how do we manage the world order, and maintain it, when a nation-state can violate the sovereignty and borders of another nation-state.
Simple: cut them off from all trade and travel. But NATO members, being the geniuses that they are depend on Russian trade. Which renders NATO pointless. Add in Turkey laughably getting arms from Putin.....and you get our current stupid stalemate.

OS has been pointing this out....the EU and NATO don't have their sh(t together. And I have NO CLUE why the US is allowing trade and travel for Russians if this issue is that serious.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:36 pm The question is exactly what was faced when Hitler occupied the Ruhr and expanded his armies and ventured into Czech territory. Appeasement will mean the same thing: escalation of a lawless state actor.
Not exactly. In 1939 the Allies were not yet united & prepared to defend, in unison, as NATO is today. The Czechs did not have a massive alliance, spring loaded to come to their defense.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Seacoaster(1) »

old salt wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:49 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:36 pm The question is exactly what was faced when Hitler occupied the Ruhr and expanded his armies and ventured into Czech territory. Appeasement will mean the same thing: escalation of a lawless state actor.
Not exactly. In 1939 the Allies were not yet united & prepared to defend, in unison, as NATO is today. The Czechs did not have a massive alliance, spring loaded to come to their defense.
Absolutely true. Good point.

So let me ask you: how do we wind this down in a way that doesn’t simply appease?
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:04 pm
old salt wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:49 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:36 pm The question is exactly what was faced when Hitler occupied the Ruhr and expanded his armies and ventured into Czech territory. Appeasement will mean the same thing: escalation of a lawless state actor.
Not exactly. In 1939 the Allies were not yet united & prepared to defend, in unison, as NATO is today. The Czechs did not have a massive alliance, spring loaded to come to their defense.
Absolutely true. Good point.

So let me ask you: how do we wind this down in a way that doesn’t simply appease?
That's why I emphasized NATO in my earlier posts. We can only wind it down by witholding aid to Ukraine, which is untenable at this point.
Unless there is a reversal of recent Russian progress, my sense is they're headed for stalemate & a frozen conflict. At that point, we need to press for a cease fire in place, using further aid to Ukraine & offering limited easing of sanctions to Russia to induce them to reach a cease fire in place.

We will have to accept that some territory will be ceded to Russia. In return, Ukraine will survive as a nation, receiving massive aid, being welcomed into the EU.

For future stability, the new borders need to be more logical & defend-able by both Russia & Ukraine. They need to provide both nations unfettered access to the Black Sea & not threaten Russian access to Crimea. Ukraine needs to retain Mykolaiv, Odesa & the coastline to the west. Russia needs to retain the land bridge territory they now hold, including the entire canal that provides Crimea's water supply, even if the city of Kherson & surrounding territory N of the Dnieper river is returned to Ukraine. Russia would retain the territory in the Donbas that they hold.

I don't expect both sides to formally endorse or accept these borders, but something like them will emerge in a frozen conflict.
The ability of both sides to defend what they hold will deter a resumption of fighting. A reinvigorated NATO 2.0 will deter further Russian expansion. Trade & exports will resume to the benefit of all parties, including the rest of the global economy. Rebuilding Ukraine can then begin & refugees & displaced can return.

It need not be perfect, just practical & sustainable.
It's not appeasement because Russia pays a heavy, ongoing price, having forced the EU to purchase more energy elsewhere.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:47 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:04 pm
old salt wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:49 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:36 pm The question is exactly what was faced when Hitler occupied the Ruhr and expanded his armies and ventured into Czech territory. Appeasement will mean the same thing: escalation of a lawless state actor.
Not exactly. In 1939 the Allies were not yet united & prepared to defend, in unison, as NATO is today. The Czechs did not have a massive alliance, spring loaded to come to their defense.
Absolutely true. Good point.

So let me ask you: how do we wind this down in a way that doesn’t simply appease?
That's why I emphasized NATO in my earlier posts. We can only wind it down by witholding aid to Ukraine, which is untenable at this point.
Unless there is a reversal of recent Russian progress, my sense is they're headed for stalemate & a frozen conflict. At that point, we need to press for a cease fire in place, using further aid to Ukraine & offering limited easing of sanctions to Russia to induce them to reach a cease fire in place.

We will have to accept that some territory will be ceded to Russia. In return, Ukraine will survive as a nation, receiving massive aid, being welcomed into the EU.

For future stability, the new borders need to be more logical & defend-able by both Russia & Ukraine. They need to provide both nations unfettered access to the Black Sea & not threaten Russian access to Crimea. Ukraine needs to retain Mykolaiv, Odesa & the coastline to the west. Russia needs to retain the land bridge territory they now hold, including the entire canal that provides Crimea's water supply, even if the city of Kherson & surrounding territory N of the Dnieper river is returned to Ukraine. Russia would retain the territory in the Donbas that they hold.

I don't expect both sides to formally endorse or accept these borders, but something like them will emerge in a frozen conflict.
The ability of both sides to defend what they hold will deter a resumption of fighting. A reinvigorated NATO 2.0 will deter further Russian expansion. Trade & exports will resume to the benefit of all parties, including the rest of the global economy. Rebuilding Ukraine can then begin & refugees & displaced can return.

It need not be perfect, just practical & sustainable.
It's not appeasement because Russia pays a heavy, ongoing price, having forced the EU to purchase more energy elsewhere.
This is not an unreasonable scenario and something like it could happen.

However, I think President Zelenskyy and that thug Putin are wild cards. First, I’m not sure Zelenskyy won’t wage a public campaign against any move towards “accommodation” towards Russia (a nicer word for “appeasement”). He has been more than willing to shame his benefactors in Europe and America. Putin may just be unhinged and delusional at this point. I’m not certain he can be trusted to keep any agreement.

I don’t think there will be a cease fire until both Russia and Ukraine are close to exhausting their military capability.

Most importantly, I do not think President Zelenskyy will sign any agreement unless he has some firm security guarantees from NATO. Why should he? After all, the word of Putin and Russia are worthless. I doubt Zelenskyy agrees to anything with Russia unless NATO and/or other allies sign a separate agreement to provide massive amounts of military and economic support.

The only path to a true and secure peace will be providing sufficient military and economic support to ensure that Ukraine is too strong, dangerous, and powerful for Russia to attack again.

I am guessing the price tag for that will amount to more than $100 billion. Quite a price for ending Putin’s folly.

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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by DocBarrister »

a fan wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:56 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:36 pm Certainly the nukes change the calculus, but the basic issue still presents itself and is largely the same: how do we manage the world order, and maintain it, when a nation-state can violate the sovereignty and borders of another nation-state.
Simple: cut them off from all trade and travel. But NATO members, being the geniuses that they are depend on Russian trade. Which renders NATO pointless. Add in Turkey laughably getting arms from Putin.....and you get our current stupid stalemate.

OS has been pointing this out....the EU and NATO don't have their sh(t together. And I have NO CLUE why the US is allowing trade and travel for Russians if this issue is that serious.
Putin (and Biden) have helped NATO to become more unified than it has been in many years.

NATO and the EU will be more important than ever in the coming years. If this war has done anything, it has proven the importance and worth of those two treaty organizations.

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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by DocBarrister »

CU88 wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:30 pm How soon until Old Soviet declares war on Sweden & Finland for violating what is rightfully Putins?

"Finland, Sweden back on path to NATO membership as Turkey drops veto"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us ... 022-06-28/
Sweden and Finland joining NATO is a truly remarkable and historic development.

Putin has made his own nightmares come true … NATO now completely dominates Russia’s western borders. Indeed, the strengthening and expansion of NATO may turn out to be Putin’s most impactful legacy.

And don’t count out Ukraine. I doubt Ukraine will be formally admitted to NATO, but Ukraine will likely be provided security guarantees that make Ukraine in effect an affiliate member of NATO.

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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

old salt wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:47 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:04 pm
old salt wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:49 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:36 pm The question is exactly what was faced when Hitler occupied the Ruhr and expanded his armies and ventured into Czech territory. Appeasement will mean the same thing: escalation of a lawless state actor.
Not exactly. In 1939 the Allies were not yet united & prepared to defend, in unison, as NATO is today. The Czechs did not have a massive alliance, spring loaded to come to their defense.
Absolutely true. Good point.

So let me ask you: how do we wind this down in a way that doesn’t simply appease?
That's why I emphasized NATO in my earlier posts. We can only wind it down by witholding aid to Ukraine, which is untenable at this point.
Unless there is a reversal of recent Russian progress, my sense is they're headed for stalemate & a frozen conflict. At that point, we need to press for a cease fire in place, using further aid to Ukraine & offering limited easing of sanctions to Russia to induce them to reach a cease fire in place.

We will have to accept that some territory will be ceded to Russia. In return, Ukraine will survive as a nation, receiving massive aid, being welcomed into the EU.

For future stability, the new borders need to be more logical & defend-able by both Russia & Ukraine. They need to provide both nations unfettered access to the Black Sea & not threaten Russian access to Crimea. Ukraine needs to retain Mykolaiv, Odesa & the coastline to the west. Russia needs to retain the land bridge territory they now hold, including the entire canal that provides Crimea's water supply, even if the city of Kherson & surrounding territory N of the Dnieper river is returned to Ukraine. Russia would retain the territory in the Donbas that they hold.

I don't expect both sides to formally endorse or accept these borders, but something like them will emerge in a frozen conflict.
The ability of both sides to defend what they hold will deter a resumption of fighting. A reinvigorated NATO 2.0 will deter further Russian expansion. Trade & exports will resume to the benefit of all parties, including the rest of the global economy. Rebuilding Ukraine can then begin & refugees & displaced can return.

It need not be perfect, just practical & sustainable.
It's not appeasement because Russia pays a heavy, ongoing price, having forced the EU to purchase more energy elsewhere.
“We will have to accept that some territory will be ceded to Russia.”

Who is this “we”? The dead of Ukraine may not agree.

I think Russia may have created a nightmare for themselves in Ukraine. That kind of barbarity will be re-paid in kind.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Seacoaster(1) »

old salt wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:47 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:04 pm
old salt wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:49 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:36 pm The question is exactly what was faced when Hitler occupied the Ruhr and expanded his armies and ventured into Czech territory. Appeasement will mean the same thing: escalation of a lawless state actor.
Not exactly. In 1939 the Allies were not yet united & prepared to defend, in unison, as NATO is today. The Czechs did not have a massive alliance, spring loaded to come to their defense.
Absolutely true. Good point.

So let me ask you: how do we wind this down in a way that doesn’t simply appease?
That's why I emphasized NATO in my earlier posts. We can only wind it down by witholding aid to Ukraine, which is untenable at this point.
Unless there is a reversal of recent Russian progress, my sense is they're headed for stalemate & a frozen conflict. At that point, we need to press for a cease fire in place, using further aid to Ukraine & offering limited easing of sanctions to Russia to induce them to reach a cease fire in place.

We will have to accept that some territory will be ceded to Russia. In return, Ukraine will survive as a nation, receiving massive aid, being welcomed into the EU.

For future stability, the new borders need to be more logical & defend-able by both Russia & Ukraine. They need to provide both nations unfettered access to the Black Sea & not threaten Russian access to Crimea. Ukraine needs to retain Mykolaiv, Odesa & the coastline to the west. Russia needs to retain the land bridge territory they now hold, including the entire canal that provides Crimea's water supply, even if the city of Kherson & surrounding territory N of the Dnieper river is returned to Ukraine. Russia would retain the territory in the Donbas that they hold.

I don't expect both sides to formally endorse or accept these borders, but something like them will emerge in a frozen conflict.
The ability of both sides to defend what they hold will deter a resumption of fighting. A reinvigorated NATO 2.0 will deter further Russian expansion. Trade & exports will resume to the benefit of all parties, including the rest of the global economy. Rebuilding Ukraine can then begin & refugees & displaced can return.

It need not be perfect, just practical & sustainable.
It's not appeasement because Russia pays a heavy, ongoing price, having forced the EU to purchase more energy elsewhere.
OS, thanks for this excellent response.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by CU88 »

Invitation has been proffered:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sw ... 022-06-29/

"MADRID, June 29 (Reuters) - NATO invited Sweden and Finland on Wednesday to join the military alliance in one of the biggest shifts in European security in decades after Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed Helsinki and Stockholm to drop their traditional of neutrality."
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Kismet »

This gets really interesting - Turkey comes to support addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO after initially balking. Then they get upgrade of their F6 fighter fleet to the latest model immediately and promise of F-35s if they give up Russian S400 air defense system which they could transfer to Ukraine rather than return to Russia.

USA also announces that we will station forces permanently on NATO’s eastern flank b permanently deploying an Army garrison headquarters (5th Army) and a field support battalion in Poland. Also 2 additional F-35 squadrons to the UK plus other increased rotational deployments in the Baltic states and Romania and additional air defense to Germany and Italy.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

Kismet wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:05 am This gets really interesting - Turkey comes to support addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO after initially balking. Then they get upgrade of their F6 fighter fleet to the latest model immediately and promise of F-35s if they give up Russian S400 air defense system which they could transfer to Ukraine rather than return to Russia.

USA also announces that we will station forces permanently on NATO’s eastern flank b permanently deploying an Army garrison headquarters (5th Army) and a field support battalion in Poland. Also 2 additional F-35 squadrons to the UK plus other increased rotational deployments in the Baltic states and Romania and additional air defense to Germany and Italy.
This is all good, but not that much is new. Most of this was already in the pipeline. The V Corps HQ in Poland, +2 DDG's homeported in Rota, & F-35's replacing F-15C's at Lakenheath were already programmed.
https://theaviationgeekclub.com/lakenhe ... -squadron/
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe ... s-1.652807
Likewise, the increase of the NATO RRF from 40k to 300k is mostly just packaging. It's likely just publicizing what the existing NATO mobilization plan is. Most of these forces will remain in their home country. They're not yet saying which forces will actually deploy to the E flank. It would be huge if Turkey gave UkraIne their S-400. That might induce Greece to contribute their S-300's. Not much detail released yet.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:13 pm
Kismet wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:05 am This gets really interesting - Turkey comes to support addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO after initially balking. Then they get upgrade of their F6 fighter fleet to the latest model immediately and promise of F-35s if they give up Russian S400 air defense system which they could transfer to Ukraine rather than return to Russia.

USA also announces that we will station forces permanently on NATO’s eastern flank b permanently deploying an Army garrison headquarters (5th Army) and a field support battalion in Poland. Also 2 additional F-35 squadrons to the UK plus other increased rotational deployments in the Baltic states and Romania and additional air defense to Germany and Italy.
This is all good, but not that much is new. Most of this was already in the pipeline. The V Corps HQ in Poland, +2 DDG's homeported in Rota, & F-35's replacing F-15C's at Lakenheath were already programmed.
https://theaviationgeekclub.com/lakenhe ... -squadron/
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe ... s-1.652807
Likewise, the increase of the NATO RRF from 40k to 300k is mostly just packaging. It's likely just publicizing what the existing NATO mobilization plan is. Most of these forces will remain in their home country. They're not yet saying which forces will actually deploy to the E flank. It would be huge if Turkey gave UkraIne their S-400. That might induce Greece to contribute their S-300's. Not much detail released yet.
More on the Turkey vs Greece, F-16/F-35, & S400/S-300 drama.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/ ... 1b66f397d9
Those used Greek Mirage 2000's might be useful to Ukraines Air Force, with French maint support & ordnance supply.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

More details about the increase of US forces in Europe.
Most rotational. Not that many permanent.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-ram ... krainenato {paywall}

The additions include rotational deployments to Romania and the Baltic region, and a permanent Army headquarters base and other units in Poland, the White House said. Until now, the U.S. and other allies have only rotated troops in and out of NATO countries once under Soviet domination, not permanently located them there.

The new plans also include sending additional Navy destroyers to Spain, a short-range air defense battery to Italy and two squadrons of cutting-edge F-35 jet fighters to the U.K.

Romania would get an additional brigade combat team, allowing its elements to deploy across the region and enhancing security across the eastern flank, according to administration officials. The Pentagon will increase rotational deployments of armored, air defense and special operations forces into the Baltic region, officials said.

The announcements in Madrid Wednesday amount to an addition of about 1,500 new, permanent or semi-permanent forces, U.S. military officials said.

That includes about 280 military personnel to support the new permanent Army headquarters in Poland, another 625 troops for an air-defense artillery brigade headquarters, an air defense battalion and a combat sustainment support battalion headquarters in Germany, and about 65 personnel for a short-range air-defense battery in Italy.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Seems to me that there is a combination of real, substantial actions with others that are simply reinforcing messages of communicated commitments.

We can niggle over details and whether each such is actually substantial or just communicating solidarity and resolve, and that's all technically quite interesting, but the chief takeaway is that NATO is larger, stronger, more unified and more committed coming out of this set of meetings.

Other message coming out is the unified resolve that 'Ukraine must not lose in Ukraine' and NATO led by the US is committed to that assurance. I'd prefer calling "not lose" as "win", but that's splitting hairs.

Also of note was the reference to bringing Pacific democracies into the effort, both re Russia and re China and NK...
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:59 am Seems to me that there is a combination of real, substantial actions with others that are simply reinforcing messages of communicated commitments.

We can niggle over details and whether each such is actually substantial or just communicating solidarity and resolve, and that's all technically quite interesting, but the chief takeaway is that NATO is larger, stronger, more unified and more committed coming out of this set of meetings.
Nobody's "niggling". PoInting out that it is not the huge increase which is being hyped. Most of the increase in combat forces is in temporary rotational units from the US (which can be halted at any time), rather than permanently basing those combat units, their equipment, & their families in Europe, as was done during the Cold War, which (imho) yielded a more effective fighting force. Almost all that stuff has been in the pipeline since 2014.

Some of us are concerned with effectiveness rather than just optics.
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