MD Public 2022

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Turnandrake
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Turnandrake »

Jumbo wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:01 am Who ya got for tonight. Will SP continue to dominate public schools? Or will Broadneck take the title and take over the top spot
Broadneck 12-7
Jumbo
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

youthathletics wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:26 am
Jumbo wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:07 am
Matnum PI wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:27 am
Matnum PI wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 10:53 am
Jumbo wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:35 am For tonight’s games. My predictions . No game will be close. All at least 5 goal wins
KI over Urbana
Hereford over Towson
Hereford 7 Towson 6
Kent Island 6 Urbana 5
Jumbo, you owe Towson and Urbana apologies... :)
Yes. Surprised me. Seems like some teams are having really good games. And some really bad games.

Towson got blown out by Catonsville and Hereford played Catonsville close. Towson had a close game with dulany and Hereford blew out dulaney. Just seemed like Hereford was a much better team

I thought KI would blow out Urbana. The only comparable I found was KI and Broadneck 1 goal. And Broadneck crushed Urbana is a scrimmage 10-0. but Urbana played South River close and KI and South River scrimmaged and that was close.
Yes. Both games were closer than I expected. I was wrong. Sorry Towson and Urbana
SR's defense is their strength, IMO. They have some talented players on offense, but feel like their d and goalie keep them in the game.
SR strength is the attack.
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Matnum PI
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Matnum PI »

Jumbo wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:07 am Yes. Both games were closer than I expected. I was wrong. Sorry Towson and Urbana
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youthathletics
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by youthathletics »

Jumbo wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:37 am
youthathletics wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:26 am
Jumbo wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:07 am
Matnum PI wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:27 am
Matnum PI wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 10:53 am
Jumbo wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:35 am For tonight’s games. My predictions . No game will be close. All at least 5 goal wins
KI over Urbana
Hereford over Towson
Hereford 7 Towson 6
Kent Island 6 Urbana 5
Jumbo, you owe Towson and Urbana apologies... :)
Yes. Surprised me. Seems like some teams are having really good games. And some really bad games.

Towson got blown out by Catonsville and Hereford played Catonsville close. Towson had a close game with dulany and Hereford blew out dulaney. Just seemed like Hereford was a much better team

I thought KI would blow out Urbana. The only comparable I found was KI and Broadneck 1 goal. And Broadneck crushed Urbana is a scrimmage 10-0. but Urbana played South River close and KI and South River scrimmaged and that was close.
Yes. Both games were closer than I expected. I was wrong. Sorry Towson and Urbana
SR's defense is their strength, IMO. They have some talented players on offense, but feel like their d and goalie keep them in the game.
SR strength is the attack.
Their offense barely hits 9 goals in a game, their defense holds other teams to less than that...on average. Steak dinners for the ssdm's, poles, and goalie ;)
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
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JPAtlantic
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by JPAtlantic »

Broadneck over Severna Park 10-8.

Sherwood beat Whittman 10-8 also.
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youthathletics
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by youthathletics »

JPAtlantic wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:57 pm Broadneck over Severna Park 10-8.
I missed that one, :? by a lot. :lol:
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
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Turnandrake
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Turnandrake »

Turnandrake wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:52 am :roll:
Jumbo wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 4:55 pm
JPAtlantic wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:34 pm
Jumbo wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:26 pm Catonsville too high. Severna Park needs to be higher. My Hebron too high.
Where is Kent Island? They are top 15 team
Here is the VSN Baltimore Area poll. They seem to do a pretty good job. The Sun does a good job, but only updates once a month.
1. ST. MARY’S
2. BOYS’ LATIN SCHOOL
3. SEVERN SCHOOL
4. ARCHBISHOP SPALDING
5. CALVERT HALL COLLEGE
6. MCDONOGH SCHOOL
7. LOYOLA BLAKEFIELD
8. SEVERNA PARK
9. ST. PAUL’S SCHOOL
10. BROADNECK
11. GILMAN SCHOOL
12. CATONSVILLE
13. HEREFORD
14. MOUNT HEBRON
15. FALLSTON
16. TOWSON
17. JOHN CARROLL SCHOOL
18. GLENELG
19. MARRIOTTS RIDGE
20. ARCHBISHOP CURLEY

I agree Kent Island should be ranked.
MSJ and Dulaney should also be ranked. MSJ came within 2 of St. Marys and Dulaney took Hereford and Towson to overtime.
This one looks better. I know Severn just beat BL, but I think that was a fluke. Spalding is stronger than Severn.
I would put Kent Island somewhere in the 12-14 range. Drop Marriott’s ridge and Curley. Add MSJ and South River as 19 and 20
I put Kent Island a head of broadneck and Severna park.
Think Broadneck is better the Severna Park. Find out soon.
Jumbo
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

Good win for Broadneck. But SP starting goalie didn’t play. Not sure if it mattered.
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

Final week for public schools

My top 10

1 Catonsville. Solid wins over Hereford and MSJ
2. Broadneck. Solid win over SP
3. Severna Park. EGO got them, thinking they could win with backup goalie
4. Churchill. Untested yet. This week will answer questions
5. Hereford. held strong vs top team
6. Kent Island. Weak opponents this week
7. Towson. Gave Hereford a tough fight
8. Sherwood. Unimpressed
9. Bethesda Chevy Chase. Unimpressed
10. Mt Hebron unimpressed

My finals predictions stay the same this week

4A. Broadneck vs Churchill
3A. Catonsville vs Severna Park
2A. Hereford Va Kent Island
kramerica.inc
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by kramerica.inc »

MD HS Lax Scores Baltimore Power Poll:

https://twitter.com/scores_lax/status/1 ... 7gcpmir46A

20 (tie) Westminster / Glenelg
19 Mt St Joseph's
18 Fallston
17 Mt Hebron
16 Towson
15 Kent Island
14 Hereford
13 John Carroll
12 Gilman
11 Severna Park
10 Loyola
9 Broadneck
8 McDonogh
7 Catonsville
6 Calvert Hall
5 St Pauls
4 Boys Latin
3 Severn
2 Spalding
1 St Mary's
Jumbo
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

kramerica.inc wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 11:31 am MD HS Lax Scores Baltimore Power Poll:

https://twitter.com/scores_lax/status/1 ... 7gcpmir46A

20 (tie) Westminster / Glenelg
19 Mt St Joseph's
18 Fallston
17 Mt Hebron
16 Towson
15 Kent Island
14 Hereford
13 John Carroll
12 Gilman
11 Severna Park
10 Loyola
9 Broadneck
8 McDonogh
7 Catonsville
6 Calvert Hall
5 St Pauls
4 Boys Latin
3 Severn
2 Spalding
1 St Mary's
Looks legit to me.
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Matnum PI
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Matnum PI »

Today's Best Games (Astericks denotes team that'll win)
1 Towson vs Catonsville*
2 Hereford* vs Franklin
3 Smithsburg* vs Middletown
4 Indian Creek School* vs Friends
5 Westminster* vs Patterson Mill
6 Wootton vs Quince Orchard*
7 South Carroll vs CM Wright*
8 Einstein vs Bethesda-Chevy Chase*
9 Perry Hall vs Dulaney*
10 Manchester Valley* vs Bel Air
11 St Maria Goretti vs Brunswick*
12 Damascus vs Blake*
13 Walkersville* vs Catoctin
14 Winters Mill vs Havre De Grace*
15 St James* vs Mercersburg Academy
16 Urbana* vs Frederick
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Jumbo
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

Does anyone know how the final 8 will be ranked?

Do they look at losses to private schools?
Do they look at out of conference losses.

Is a team like Flowers (undefeated in county play) going to be the number 1 or number 2 seed? They would lose to a Churchill or Broadneck by 15-20 goals.

The way I read the rules, I don’t think spring tournaments or playoffs count.
Jumbo
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

Not a surprise that churchhill is dominating Sherwood. Hard to tell how good Churchill is, considering they still haven’t been tested. But I didn’t see many mistakes.
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youthathletics
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by youthathletics »

Jumbo wrote: Tue May 03, 2022 11:53 am Does anyone know how the final 8 will be ranked?

Do they look at losses to private schools?
Do they look at out of conference losses.

Is a team like Flowers (undefeated in county play) going to be the number 1 or number 2 seed? They would lose to a Churchill or Broadneck by 15-20 goals.

The way I read the rules, I don’t think spring tournaments or playoffs count.
https://content.mpssaa.org/view/49135133/12/
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
Jumbo
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

youthathletics wrote: Thu May 05, 2022 7:56 pm
Jumbo wrote: Tue May 03, 2022 11:53 am Does anyone know how the final 8 will be ranked?

Do they look at losses to private schools?
Do they look at out of conference losses.

Is a team like Flowers (undefeated in county play) going to be the number 1 or number 2 seed? They would lose to a Churchill or Broadneck by 15-20 goals.

The way I read the rules, I don’t think spring tournaments or playoffs count.
https://content.mpssaa.org/view/49135133/12/
I was wondering how others interpreted the rules.

Based on what I am thinking, spring break tourneys don’t count.

That could leave several schools undefeated in regular season
kramerica.inc
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by kramerica.inc »

Most leagues only count conference games when seeding. That often leads to some wonky results and crazy mismatches in the bracket at weird times. Love to see MD start to use laxnumbers.com (the Laxpower formula) like many other states are doing.
Jumbo
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

kramerica.inc wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:09 am Most leagues only count conference games when seeding. That often leads to some wonky results and crazy mismatches in the bracket at weird times. Love to see MD start to use laxnumbers.com (the Laxpower formula) like many other states are doing.
Lax numbers formula is flawed. Just look at the rankings for md public schools. They still have severna park with 4 losses, ranked number 1. Broadneck has a better record. Just beat them head to head and ranked behind them. Catonsville is undefeated and ranked 3 behind two teams with combined 6 losses.
kramerica.inc
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by kramerica.inc »

Jumbo wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 11:19 am
kramerica.inc wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 10:09 am Most leagues only count conference games when seeding. That often leads to some wonky results and crazy mismatches in the bracket at weird times. Love to see MD start to use laxnumbers.com (the Laxpower formula) like many other states are doing.
Lax numbers formula is flawed. Just look at the rankings for md public schools. They still have severna park with 4 losses, ranked number 1. Broadneck has a better record. Just beat them head to head and ranked behind them. Catonsville is undefeated and ranked 3 behind two teams with combined 6 losses.
I agree its flawed and there are some wonky things when it comes to h2h matchups, but I think it generally pegs teams pretty well into tiers.
Jumbo
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Re: MD Public 2022

Post by Jumbo »

The lumpys poll seem more accurate. Not knocking SP, but based on lumpys info, their best win is south river (33). Next best win after that is a mediocre Marriott’s ridge (66). I would love to know what formula laxnumbers uses to rank a 9-4 team above a 14-0 team. Catonsville even has better wins.
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