Division II Odds to Win the Championship

D2 Mens Lacrosse
laf
Posts: 81
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 12:38 pm

Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by laf »

Seton Hill: 21%
Tampa:17%
Mercyhurst: 16%
Lenoir-Rhyne: 15%

Rest of the field: 31%

See all the odds at:
http://www.laxbytes.com/OUTPUT/SERVER/men/odds02.php
D2fan
Posts: 170
Joined: Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:50 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by D2fan »

Thank you for doing this, I'm a fan of what Laxbytes does with the D1 teams.

But you have 6 Northern teams with a 100% chance of making the NCAA.

D2 is regionalized between North and South.

This year only 5 teams from the North and 5 teams from the South will be in the playoffs.
WhiteCarrera
Posts: 379
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:11 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by WhiteCarrera »

Yeah, there's some screwy stuff going on here, but great food for thought. Thanks for posting this.

It will be very interesting to see how much COVID wiggle room the committee has on some of the criteria. Indianapolis and Lindenwood is a great example. Two very equal teams (split games this year) with identical original schedules; however, the Quincy cancelled its game with Indianapolis. Because Lindenwood actually played the second Quincy game, their SOS rank dropped 17 spots (5 in region).

Maybe Tampa has it figured out -- beat some average teams, and play as few games as possible. They should just make up some false positive results, and cancel their last two games. It seems like we've got a system where actually playing your games and winning can hurt you, but sitting at home for three weeks without a game just locks you in to the top.
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Laxfan00
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Joined: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:00 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by Laxfan00 »

WhiteCarrera wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 6:42 pm Yeah, there's some screwy stuff going on here, but great food for thought. Thanks for posting this.

It will be very interesting to see how much COVID wiggle room the committee has on some of the criteria. Indianapolis and Lindenwood is a great example. Two very equal teams (split games this year) with identical original schedules; however, the Quincy cancelled its game with Indianapolis. Because Lindenwood actually played the second Quincy game, their SOS rank dropped 17 spots (5 in region).

Maybe Tampa has it figured out -- beat some average teams, and play as few games as possible. They should just make up some false positive results, and cancel their last two games. It seems like we've got a system where actually playing your games and winning can hurt you, but sitting at home for three weeks without a game just locks you in to the top.
Why so angry at Tampa? Who hurt you? It’s a Covid season, anything can happen. Teams are lucky to be able to play. You think kids want games to be cancelled?
WhiteCarrera
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by WhiteCarrera »

Laxfan - welcome to the site. Congrats on your first post!

I agree, no players want to see games cancelled, but I'll also admit I'm not much of a Tampa fan.
...and signature lines are there for a reason ;)
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CHEEKS
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by CHEEKS »

SSC best conference no questions asked. Tampa is so underrated. Whipple runs a clean program.
WhiteCarrera
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by WhiteCarrera »

Cheeks - welcome to the site too, and congrats on your first post.
Do you know laxfann00 and tumbleweed?
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CHEEKS
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by CHEEKS »

Nah
User avatar
RedFromMI
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by RedFromMI »

CHEEKS wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 2:45 pm SSC best conference no questions asked. Tampa is so underrated. Whipple runs a clean program.
Average conference this year, and Tampa is usually overrated. No comment on Whipple, however.

The problem is that with the SSC not allowing play outside its own sandbox, you have no way to really know until the NCAAs. And not facing top programs from elsewhere in the South does not help in preparing the team for the real adversity of the playoffs.
Pitt12
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by Pitt12 »

CHEEKS wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 2:45 pm SSC best conference no questions asked. Tampa is so underrated. Whipple runs a clean program.
SSC? Out of your mind...Tampa is the most talked about team that has never won anything.
Laxboy
Posts: 5
Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:58 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by Laxboy »

So any thoughts on the regional rankings released today? Tampa ranked #5 if I’m reading it correctly...no longer teams just under consideration?
Tumbleweedlax
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:25 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by Tumbleweedlax »

WhiteCarrera wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 6:42 pm Yeah, there's some screwy stuff going on here, but great food for thought. Thanks for posting this.

It will be very interesting to see how much COVID wiggle room the committee has on some of the criteria. Indianapolis and Lindenwood is a great example. Two very equal teams (split games this year) with identical original schedules; however, the Quincy cancelled its game with Indianapolis. Because Lindenwood actually played the second Quincy game, their SOS rank dropped 17 spots (5 in region).

Maybe Tampa has it figured out -- beat some average teams, and play as few games as possible. They should just make up some false positive results, and cancel their last two games. It seems like we've got a system where actually playing your games and winning can hurt you, but sitting at home for three weeks without a game just locks you in to the top.
Anger issues? That must be the most irresponsible thing Ive heard in quite a while.. that's a shame , no-one wants to hear foolish talk. All the teams want to play. All the kids and coaches want to play. Go back to the play ground you bully.
Laxwarrior
Posts: 164
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by Laxwarrior »

Pitt12 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 9:11 pm
CHEEKS wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 2:45 pm SSC best conference no questions asked. Tampa is so underrated. Whipple runs a clean program.
SSC? Out of your mind...Tampa is the most talked about team that has never won anything.
As I've said before, if you want Memorial Day weekend off.....go to Tampa!
LunchBox
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:43 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by LunchBox »

Belmont Abbey is a 10 Win Conference Champion with a win over Mt. Olive.
Tampa, one game left, vs. Lynn, which they one by 1 goal earlier in the year. With an expected win over Lynn this weekend, Tampa will have 9 wins. Tampa's highest ranked win is against Lynn, who is ranked 18th, in the South.
Tampa Strength of Schedule is almost a full point lower than Belmont Abbey, .575 vs .497.
Tampa will have only played 3 Games vs team over .500, to Belmont Abbey’s 8, in which they are 5 - 3.

Combined with the fact the Sunshine Conference is not playing a conference tournament, the Committee will then have a hard choice. Do they take two, 10 Win Conference Champions? Or leave one out for a 9 Win Team that has played a bunch of teams that have .500 or lower records? Personally, I would like to see Tampa compete in Hickory, NC later this month.
D2fan
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by D2fan »

I think if Tampa and UIndy/Lindenwood win out, they will jump BA. It is not those team's fault that their conferences did not let any OOC games be played. Both of the teams played the schedule that was given to them, and they have yet to slip up against weaker foes. Both of these teams will also see RPI increases with the completion of the weekend. BA's numbers are where they are and aren't changing.

Hard to leave out Lindenwood/Indy who will have 4-5 Wins against Teams Above .500 after the conference championship. Those teams also did not lose to anyone below .500.

You can't leave an undefeated Tampa team out of the playoffs.

With Adelphi's loss, the North bracket seems to be set with the GMAC and NE10 championship game deciding seeding.
I think it will look like
1. NE10 Winner
2. GMAC Winner
3. Mercy
4. NE10 Loser
5. GMAC Loser.
CHEEKS
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Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:10 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by CHEEKS »

You can’t say Tampa is not a tournament team when they’re undefeated in easily one of the toughest conferences in D2. There is no easy win in the SSC with Embry Riddle opting out. Every other conference in d2 there are teams NAIA teams can beat with their back ups. Tampa has plenty of D1 kids who will make some noise when the tourney comes along.
CHEEKS
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:10 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by CHEEKS »

You guys turd on the SSC but there’s no free wins. Everyone views Palm Beach Atlantic University as that free win and if you put them in the SAC, where a lot of you believe is more competitive then the SSC, Palm Beach Atlantic University would prob rattle off 4 wins of those lower tier teams. Bottom line you have to show up for every game otherwise you lose and don’t make the tournament.
WhiteCarrera
Posts: 379
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:11 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by WhiteCarrera »

Definitely some exuberant Tampa fans who will either be crying in their beers or telling us all "I told ya so!" in a couple weeks.
To their credit, they came in and stated their case in their very first posts:

CHEEKS wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 2:45 pm SSC best conference no questions asked. Tampa is so underrated. Whipple runs a clean program.
Tumbleweedlax wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 pm UT will be at the head of the class for the foreseeable future.
I would be confident in saying they wont lose a game this year and probably only a few over the next 3 years.
UT Natl champs 2021, 2022 and 2023.
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WhiteCarrera
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Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by WhiteCarrera »

Pitt12 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 9:11 pm
CHEEKS wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 2:45 pm SSC best conference no questions asked. Tampa is so underrated. Whipple runs a clean program.
SSC? Out of your mind...Tampa is the most talked about team that has never won anything.
Agree completely. I'm not sure how anyone can claim Tampa is "underrated" when they were literally rated #1 without having played a game (while others were 4-0 or 5-0). To me, this is the opposite of underrated. I'm curious Cheeks, what would be appropriate? Is there a Super Duper #1AAA rating that we don't know about?

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... ens-top-20
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CHEEKS
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Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:10 pm

Re: Division II Odds to Win the Championship

Post by CHEEKS »

WhiteCarrera wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 12:15 pm
Pitt12 wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 9:11 pm
CHEEKS wrote: Wed May 05, 2021 2:45 pm SSC best conference no questions asked. Tampa is so underrated. Whipple runs a clean program.
SSC? Out of your mind...Tampa is the most talked about team that has never won anything.
Agree completely. I'm not sure how anyone can claim Tampa is "underrated" when they were literally rated #1 without having played a game (while others were 4-0 or 5-0). To me, this is the opposite of underrated. I'm curious Cheeks, what would be appropriate? Is there a Super Duper #1AAA rating that we don't know about?

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... ens-top-20
Where’s the le Moyne slander? Again like I said put Tampa in these other conferences and it’s the same result. Shoot maybe even a few more 20 pieces if they can get out of the heat
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