Rutgers 2022

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Laxfan#1969
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Laxfan#1969 »

jrn19 wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:35 pm
Laxfan#1969 wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:56 pm
jrn19 wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 5:30 pm
livelovelax wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 5:00 pm At the very least they will be 11-3 regular season and 1-1 in the Big Ten Tournament so 12-4 overall leading up to the NCAA tourney.
Have they ever had a record that good under Brecht? Their best record pre B1G tourney under him is 10-4 and best overall 11-5. So you’re basically saying they’ll have the best team they’ve ever had after losing 3 of their 4 best players; 2 of whom are all time program greats

I think Rutgers made some really good moves in the portal and meaningfully raised the floor of their team to the point I’d be surprised if they aren’t in the Top 20 mix most of the year and have a real shot at the tournament; but you’re suggesting they’ll have the best team they’ve had in 10+ years which seems crazy after the losses they had.
Last year was the best team Rutgers has had in two decades. Yes, last year was different, all big ten schedule, a few less games, but their performance in the NCAA validated them as the best RU team in a long time.

Now, everything else you note I agree with. I think RU stays in the top 10-15 range all year, I think they need to beat 2 of 3 in the Loyola, Army, Princeton games. I actually value the conference but I guess what I think doesn’t matter. I think Hop will be very good and if both teams stay healthy I think either Hopkins or Rutgers get a spot after Maryland. If RU goes 10-4 and gets to the big ten tourney final, I think they’re in. It also depends on how the rest of the conference fairs in the OOC schedule. Big Ten wins could have a strong value...maybe. Maybe not. Time will tell...it’s all speculation.

I also agree it’s going to be very hard to replace the three big stars from last year

With all that said, I like RU this year...not to win it all or win the big ten...but to be in the mix and in the conversation. And yes, the OOC schedule may cost them.

Fun conversation.
I agree last years team was the best. No question. Was more talking about the record part of the conversation since OP above said they'd be 11-3 after the end of the regular season which they've never done; I imagine they likely would have in a normal year last year
Gotcha. Agree. Can’t compare records of other years to last year.

I also agree the record isn’t the end all hence things like SOS and RPI.

While we don’t know how this will shake out, I just happen to think Hopkins will be very good, I think Rutgers will be very good, Maryland will be Maryland...and I just think one or maybe even two more Big Ten teams are gonna be good.

But that will all play out.

I’m one that felt the B1G was undervalued last year...got caught in a situation that wasn’t the teams fault.

I think the Big Ten might be very good in 2022...which could help RPI measures. But we will see
Asgot
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Asgot »

HopFan16 wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 5:44 pm 10-4 with that schedule probably isn't going to be enough for an at-large bid unless two of those wins are against Maryland and Loyola. Maybe put Army in that group but less certain about them. The schedule is short on guaranteed "quality win" opportunities. Before you accuse me of hating — it's just a fact. The schedule is what it is in terms of predicted RPI/SOS. You can bank on Maryland and Loyola being top 20 wins. Army most likely but not a guarantee IMO. That's about it. Obviously I hope and expect Hopkins to be a top 20 team as well. OSU and PSU have shots to be. But the first three games (LIU, Marist, St. John's) are wastes from an RPI/QW standpoint, the four non-cons between Loyola and B1G play (SBU, Princeton, Lafayette, Hofstra) are highly unlikely to be QWs if you ask me (maaaybe Princeton, depending on how they rebound from the lost year) and then 4/5 B1G opponents are maybes. Long story short: 10-4 looks nice but may not get the job done. With the Ivies presumably back, it's going to be really hard to snag an at-large spot this year. Going to need more than one standout win and this schedule is probably going to leave Rutgers short of opportunities even if they clean-sweep the teams they're supposed to.
12-4 or 11-5 is where they will probably be. They simply lost too much on offense. Plus 67% of there offensive starters will be new. Loyola on the road is going to be very tough, while Army is always a tough game and Princeton being a rivalry game. This is why the rest of their schedule is so disappointing. With the exception of Loyola, Hopkins and UMD where they will probably be considered Underdogs, the rest of their games they will be favored and gain very little by winning and the wrong loss could be devastating to them. Does beating Hopkins at home look better than losing to Hofstra or Marist. Remember with the Ivies back you lose at least one bid and maybe two. ( If the Ivies Play at all)
sinman6
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by sinman6 »

Rutgers regular seasons losses: o/u 3.5… whatcha got?
jrn19
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by jrn19 »

sinman6 wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:31 pm Rutgers regular seasons losses: o/u 3.5… whatcha got?
Pre-B1G Tournament I'd say over; I think they probably lose 4 (Loyola, one of SBU/Princeton away, 2 B1G)
Asgot
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Asgot »

sinman6 wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:31 pm Rutgers regular seasons losses: o/u 3.5… whatcha got?
Over Closer to 5 I think. UMD, Hopkins plus one in the BIg ten tourney. I think they lose to Loyola and one more.

It will come down to how quickly Cameron can adjust to playing with the other new guys and where Bartolo fits whether at midfield or attack
stupefied
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by stupefied »

If Rutgers was playing Hopkins schedule, the over /under line for losses would be 6.5 and Id pick over.
Laxfan#1969
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Laxfan#1969 »

stupefied wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:08 pm If Rutgers was playing Hopkins schedule, the over /under line for losses would be 6.5 and Id pick over.
I tend to agree

I’d also actually take the over when Hopkins actually plays Hopkins schedule
Laxfan#1969
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Laxfan#1969 »

jrn19 wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:51 pm
sinman6 wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:31 pm Rutgers regular seasons losses: o/u 3.5… whatcha got?
Pre-B1G Tournament I'd say over; I think they probably lose 4 (Loyola, one of SBU/Princeton away, 2 B1G)
Agree with this

I think 10-4 and 3-2 in conference. The great fun with be the BTT. I think MD gets in...so if chalk holds you might have a semi final game at night in May in College Park with RU playing Hopkins for a spot. It could be a play in game.

I of course have a hard time thinking the big ten only gets one team.

It’s fun to speculate. That’s all it is at this point.
Laxfan#1969
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Laxfan#1969 »

Asgot wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 8:49 pm
HopFan16 wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 5:44 pm 10-4 with that schedule probably isn't going to be enough for an at-large bid unless two of those wins are against Maryland and Loyola. Maybe put Army in that group but less certain about them. The schedule is short on guaranteed "quality win" opportunities. Before you accuse me of hating — it's just a fact. The schedule is what it is in terms of predicted RPI/SOS. You can bank on Maryland and Loyola being top 20 wins. Army most likely but not a guarantee IMO. That's about it. Obviously I hope and expect Hopkins to be a top 20 team as well. OSU and PSU have shots to be. But the first three games (LIU, Marist, St. John's) are wastes from an RPI/QW standpoint, the four non-cons between Loyola and B1G play (SBU, Princeton, Lafayette, Hofstra) are highly unlikely to be QWs if you ask me (maaaybe Princeton, depending on how they rebound from the lost year) and then 4/5 B1G opponents are maybes. Long story short: 10-4 looks nice but may not get the job done. With the Ivies presumably back, it's going to be really hard to snag an at-large spot this year. Going to need more than one standout win and this schedule is probably going to leave Rutgers short of opportunities even if they clean-sweep the teams they're supposed to.
12-4 or 11-5 is where they will probably be. They simply lost too much on offense. Plus 67% of there offensive starters will be new. Loyola on the road is going to be very tough, while Army is always a tough game and Princeton being a rivalry game. This is why the rest of their schedule is so disappointing. With the exception of Loyola, Hopkins and UMD where they will probably be considered Underdogs, the rest of their games they will be favored and gain very little by winning and the wrong loss could be devastating to them. Does beating Hopkins at home look better than losing to Hofstra or Marist. Remember with the Ivies back you lose at least one bid and maybe two. ( If the Ivies Play at all)
Not gonna disagree with most of what you say. Just adding that RU did engage with all of the ACC schools except 1. They came up empty...and not because of Rutgers.

IMO the schedule is one ACC game away from being just fine. From the info I have, Rutgers made multiple attempts and was shut out...it takes two to tango in the scheduling game

So be it. Just gotta move on and go win games. IMO you gotta go 2 out of 3 in the Army, Loyola and Princeton games...then hope UM, OSU, PSU, and Hop all have good OOC results to drive up the conference game values.
stupefied
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by stupefied »

Laxfan#1969 wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:18 pm
stupefied wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:08 pm If Rutgers was playing Hopkins schedule, the over /under line for losses would be 6.5 and Id pick over.
I tend to agree

I’d also actually take the over when Hopkins actually plays Hopkins schedule
Take under for Hopkins , 8-6 or better before Big tourney.
Njlaxx11
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Njlaxx11 »

stupefied wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:54 pm
Laxfan#1969 wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:18 pm
stupefied wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:08 pm If Rutgers was playing Hopkins schedule, the over /under line for losses would be 6.5 and Id pick over.
I tend to agree

I’d also actually take the over when Hopkins actually plays Hopkins schedule
Take under for Hopkins , 8-6 or better before Big tourney.
looking at that hopkins schedule, i think they're at 6 losses before their BIG schedule.
laxreference
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by laxreference »

Njlaxx11 wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 6:57 am
stupefied wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:54 pm
Laxfan#1969 wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:18 pm
stupefied wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:08 pm If Rutgers was playing Hopkins schedule, the over /under line for losses would be 6.5 and Id pick over.
I tend to agree

I’d also actually take the over when Hopkins actually plays Hopkins schedule
Take under for Hopkins , 8-6 or better before Big tourney.
looking at that hopkins schedule, i think they're at 6 losses before their BIG schedule.
I ran the JHU schedule through the win probability model. The 9 pre-B1G games worked out to 3.3 wins, so 3-6 is actually what the model suggests. Granted, it assumes each team is what they were last year (with a regression factor incorporated), so I'll be curious to see how their first few games go.

Here's the WP for JHU in each of their non-conf games:

Delaware- 37%
Navy- 53%
Syracuse- 38%
Virginia- 19%
North Carolina- 20%
Loyola- 30%
Georgetown- 18%
Towson- 59%
Jacksonville- 64%
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1766
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by 1766 »

Asgot wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:08 pm
sinman6 wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:31 pm Rutgers regular seasons losses: o/u 3.5… whatcha got?
Over Closer to 5 I think. UMD, Hopkins plus one in the BIg ten tourney. I think they lose to Loyola and one more.

It will come down to how quickly Cameron can adjust to playing with the other new guys and where Bartolo fits whether at midfield or attack
He's a playing attack.
bananas
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by bananas »

Attack shaping up nicely. Sellers beware.
1766
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by 1766 »

One might say, very nicely.

Hopkins will put up some points. They are going to get scored on though.

Maryland (until someone knocks them off)
Rutgers
Hopkins
Michigan
Ohio St.
Penn St.

Maryland and Rutgers make the NCAA's with Hopkins on the bubble.
Laxfan#1969
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Laxfan#1969 »

1766 wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:49 pm One might say, very nicely.

Hopkins will put up some points. They are going to get scored on though.

Maryland (until someone knocks them off)
Rutgers
Hopkins
Michigan
Ohio St.
Penn St.

Maryland and Rutgers make the NCAA's with Hopkins on the bubble.
I’m in the same camp. If healthy, this team is really deep, loaded, fast, big, and physical. Not ready to say they’ll be better than last year...that would be a stretch

Camp opens tomorrow. The guys are back on campus and ready to roll. Go time

Bartolo will be a big hammer at attack, Ross Scott is really an electric playmaker at the x...lefty attack is a question...Cameron will get a shot...if not the Jacoby steps in. They will not match the production of last years attack...but if they can give you 75-80%...RU will be tough

All American goalie, sound and experienced defense...

The best group of SSDM’s in the big ten...

And lots of depth and size at midfield led by Sprock and Knoblach

I think Maryland is king

But then I think it’s a pick em between Hop and RU...the good thing is each team plays 10 games before they matchup in early April.

Go time
Wheels
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Wheels »

One thing people sleep on, IMO, is confidence. Knowing you can win, knowing you can make the tournament, knowing you make a QF is very different than thinking you can do those things. Rutgers always suffered from the latter until now. I think that's the real difference between Rutgers and, say, Johns Hopkins. Rutgers also now has an identity and culture that the players believe in and everything else get wrapped into (recruiting, training, etc.). Outside of Maryland, it's hard to discern those in another team in the B1G right now. Rutgers has those things. Of course it's possible for other programs to develop those things, but right now in the B1G, Rutgers and Maryland have them. Everyone else is in the "developing" or "trying" phase.

Of course, I was an early non-RU, hop on the RU bandwagon last year...so maybe I'm just engaging in self-confirmation bias here.
Henpecked
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Henpecked »

I don't really have an opinion one way or the other about Rutgers. I like coach Brecht and they seem to have done a nice job with transfers recently. But I have to say that the confidence of the Rutgers' faithful is truly amazing given the fact that they have made the NCAA tourney exactly one time in the last THIRTY ONE years.

To say that they suddenly have an expectation of getting into the tournament versus say Hopkins, Ohio State and Penn State, who have all made the final four in the last 6 years, is kind of a joke. A very big joke to this outsider. Penn State, Hopkins and Ohio State don't have a culture of winning? :lol:

I love the confidence, but I'd hate to see Rutgers miss the tourney this year. It is hardly a given.
livelovelax
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by livelovelax »

HenPecked has a negative vibe towards RU nation. I am a former UD grad and student athlete and love the hens but geez…….buzzkill for coming down on the Knight's faithful. I will go all in on Rutgers Men's lax this spring, all in.
Henpecked
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Re: Rutgers 2022

Post by Henpecked »

livelovelax wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:37 am HenPecked has a negative vibe towards RU nation. I am a former UD grad and student athlete and love the hens but geez…….buzzkill for coming down on the Knight's faithful. I will go all in on Rutgers Men's lax this spring, all in.
Hardly negative. Just reacting to a previous post about Ohio State, Penn State and Hopkins needing to build a winning culture. It was just a little (maybe even a LOT) over the top IMO.

I like Rutgers and hope they do well. Brecht is a great guy and excellent recruiter (even back at Siena).

I even like Knobloch even though he should have followed in his dad’s footsteps. :D
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