Virginia Lacrosse 2022

D1 Mens Lacrosse
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 32144
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

ohmilax34 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:47 am
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:17 am
ohmilax34 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:00 am
InsiderRoll wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:33 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:25 pm
youthathletics wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:18 pm #1 in the IL....call it a wash.
Not following; that was IL with that "ranking"...and I'm certainly on record that I don't think they get those right, beyond the top 10, maybe 20, each year as very likely, if healthy, to be strong contributors wherever they go. Beyond that it's a crapshoot.

That said, they even whiff in the top 10. UVA for instance had the #1 incoming tender that year, ranked 8th overall recruit all positions, but as it turned out, I don't think he was in the top 10 tenders for that particular class. Maybe not top 20. Happens.
The top 25. I like to look at which players were among the top 25 seniors in college as a barometer and which players outperformed their ranking relative to the others......


Yeah 30% seems fair. Although that top 10 is brutal and this not a very star studded class.
Besides the other ones mentioned, these are wrong.

6. Pat Kelly A Calvert Hall (Md.) North Carolina - BUST

Kelly was a very good 1st line middie for the UNC 2016 national championship team

15. Ryan Palasek D Rocky Point (N.Y.) Syracuse - Hit

Palasek hardly played at all for SU.

17. Henry West M Darien (Conn.) Cornell - BUST

Had a productive career at Cornell

26. Robby Haus D Gilman (Md.) Ohio State - BUST

3rd team all american.

28. Zach Powers D Upper Arlington (Ohio) North Carolina - BUST

Pretty sure he started on D for the 2016 NC UNC team.

50. Max Randall D Duxbury (Mass.) Dartmouth - BUST

Multi-year starter.

92. Tim Barber M West Genesee (N.Y.) Marquette - BUST

Considering you had Dejoe (a lesser player who was ranked higher) as a hit, this one makes no sense. Barber was a key player on the 2016 SU team that won the ACC tournament championship.
West transferred to Maryland. Not sure if he played one or two years at Cornell. You could argue Kelly and West didn’t play to their ranking but it would be an argument.
Right, and these are rankings, not ratings. Kelly was one of the best college middies his senior year. Sure, he was not a multi year first team all american, but hardly anybody from this list was. People take these rankings to imply that a top 20 player will dominate at the college level, forgetting that there are 3+ classes of players older than them already in college that were ranked high and players that were coming in under the radar who were just as good or late bloomers.
Yep. This is why I focus on senior year.
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 25756
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Insider, I think you're taking an earful for good reason.

A bunch of your "busts" are flat wrong.

I know some of these quite well.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were outstanding, All-Ivy every year they played, and AA in some years. Selected for pro leagues.

#22 Ardrey was moved to midfield and became the top scoring midfielder, All-Ivy...he's the guy who was inexplicably moved to 3rd team by the AHC, a ridiculous move...there was no one more intensely competitive on that team than Ian...so, gotta bench him.

#27 Kirby was 4 year starter, multi-year All-Ivy for Harvard, playing SSDM or close.

#26 Haus was not only an AA, he was a 4 year starter at close D for Ohio State, named Defenseman of Year in the Big 10 his senior year, and a captain of team. You have him as a "bust"... :roll:

Matthai you have as a hit at #36...well, yeah, a 4 year starter at UNC at SSDM, captain of National Championship team...but ok...just a "hit".

Others, I guess qualify depending on how you look at it.

Spencer Parks had an incident at UNC, moved to Towson and was key player in their very good teams. All-CAA, #2 scorer, including game winner in CAA championship and 4 goals against Denver in first round NCAA tourney 10-9 win by Towson.
Is that a "bust"? Maybe, if you equate top 10 with guaranteed AA.

#31 Koerber, after being named outstanding player in UA senior game, was a starter at Denver his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State, but 3 concussions in succession ended career...I guess you can call it a "bust", but not due to IL being wrong.

I do agree of course with some of your "booms".

I think goalie does tend to be the most likely to have big misses, which doesn't mean that they weren't solid players. I knew, for instance, that Kelly was actually outstanding, I expected Aaron and Burke to be strong, get playing time, but I was surprised by Ryan getting ranked that way, having seen him play...the Hopkins nod, swapping last minute from Delaware commit, probably helped with that one. I wasn't surprised that Marino didn't do better. Riordan I didn't know, but got to see 4 times as an opponent, and always enjoyed some of his more unusual play. The only time my son matched up against him, my son had the better saves day (23), but Riordan (14) was on the winning team 21-18 (Lyle had 9, with shots split 57 UA- 39 HU, crazy game!). The following year, my son injured, Riordan had an outstanding game 67% including a last second save to secure 10-9 win. Riordan joining the EMO and cranking shots was a trip, as were his rambles down field with the ball. Kelly and Riordan certainly "booms".

Anyway, I'd say that the top 25 is closer to 70% predictive of high contribution, with the exceptions mostly due to injuries. After that, 26-100 it looks more like 50:50 predictive of strong contribution...not everyone's going to be an AA or all-conference, but some of those are bound to out perform beyond HS exit rankings. Others fade, get injured, or get stuck behind an even better player. And of course, some unranked players way out perform.
InsiderRoll
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2021 3:46 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by InsiderRoll »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:35 am Insider, I think you're taking an earful for good reason.

A bunch of your "busts" are flat wrong.

I know some of these quite well.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were outstanding, All-Ivy every year they played, and AA in some years. Selected for pro leagues.

#22 Ardrey was moved to midfield and became the top scoring midfielder, All-Ivy...he's the guy who was inexplicably moved to 3rd team by the AHC, a ridiculous move...there was no one more intensely competitive on that team than Ian...so, gotta bench him.

#27 Kirby was 4 year starter, multi-year All-Ivy for Harvard, playing SSDM or close.

#26 Haus was not only an AA, he was a 4 year starter at close D for Ohio State, named Defenseman of Year in the Big 10 his senior year, and a captain of team. You have him as a "bust"... :roll:

Matthai you have as a hit at #36...well, yeah, a 4 year starter at UNC at SSDM, captain of National Championship team...but ok...just a "hit".

Others, I guess qualify depending on how you look at it.

Spencer Parks had an incident at UNC, moved to Towson and was key player in their very good teams. All-CAA, #2 scorer, including game winner in CAA championship and 4 goals against Denver in first round NCAA tourney 10-9 win by Towson.
Is that a "bust"? Maybe, if you equate top 10 with guaranteed AA.

#31 Koerber, after being named outstanding player in UA senior game, was a starter at Denver his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State, but 3 concussions in succession ended career...I guess you can call it a "bust", but not due to IL being wrong.

I do agree of course with some of your "booms".

I think goalie does tend to be the most likely to have big misses, which doesn't mean that they weren't solid players. I knew, for instance, that Kelly was actually outstanding, I expected Aaron and Burke to be strong, get playing time, but I was surprised by Ryan getting ranked that way, having seen him play...the Hopkins nod, swapping last minute from Delaware commit, probably helped with that one. I wasn't surprised that Marino didn't do better. Riordan I didn't know, but got to see 4 times as an opponent, and always enjoyed some of his more unusual play. The only time my son matched up against him, my son had the better saves day (23), but Riordan (14) was on the winning team 21-18 (Lyle had 9, with shots split 57 UA- 39 HU, crazy game!). The following year, my son injured, Riordan had an outstanding game 67% including a last second save to secure 10-9 win. Riordan joining the EMO and cranking shots was a trip, as were his rambles down field with the ball. Kelly and Riordan certainly "booms".

Anyway, I'd say that the top 25 is closer to 70% predictive of high contribution, with the exceptions mostly due to injuries. After that, 26-100 it looks more like 50:50 predictive of strong contribution...not everyone's going to be an AA or all-conference, but some of those are bound to out perform beyond HS exit rankings. Others fade, get injured, or get stuck behind an even better player. And of course, some unranked players way out perform.
I definitely missed on a few of my assessments, but I think it’s relative to where you’re ranked. So Dwyer and Duvnjak were some of the best players ever to sign with Harvard and they never made an NCAA Tournament and were all Ivy a few times. Good players? Yes. Program changing? Not at all. Matthai had a good career, exactly what you’d want from the #36 player in the country. To me a top ten player should be a multi year teamed all-American. They are typically recruited and scholarshiped that way.
ctbagataway
Posts: 397
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:32 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by ctbagataway »

West got significant time his sophomore year at Maryland (his first year there) and started his junior and senior year. This on a team that went to the semi’s his first year there and the finals both of his last two years. He had two goals and four assists in the finals his senior year. If that’s a bust, you need to show me the ones who made it.

I’m sure these bust calls were just trying to get a reaction, but they are laughable.
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 25756
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

InsiderRoll wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:35 am Insider, I think you're taking an earful for good reason.

A bunch of your "busts" are flat wrong.

I know some of these quite well.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were outstanding, All-Ivy every year they played, and AA in some years. Selected for pro leagues.

#22 Ardrey was moved to midfield and became the top scoring midfielder, All-Ivy...he's the guy who was inexplicably moved to 3rd team by the AHC, a ridiculous move...there was no one more intensely competitive on that team than Ian...so, gotta bench him.

#27 Kirby was 4 year starter, multi-year All-Ivy for Harvard, playing SSDM or close.

#26 Haus was not only an AA, he was a 4 year starter at close D for Ohio State, named Defenseman of Year in the Big 10 his senior year, and a captain of team. You have him as a "bust"... :roll:

Matthai you have as a hit at #36...well, yeah, a 4 year starter at UNC at SSDM, captain of National Championship team...but ok...just a "hit".

Others, I guess qualify depending on how you look at it.

Spencer Parks had an incident at UNC, moved to Towson and was key player in their very good teams. All-CAA, #2 scorer, including game winner in CAA championship and 4 goals against Denver in first round NCAA tourney 10-9 win by Towson.
Is that a "bust"? Maybe, if you equate top 10 with guaranteed AA.

#31 Koerber, after being named outstanding player in UA senior game, was a starter at Denver his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State, but 3 concussions in succession ended career...I guess you can call it a "bust", but not due to IL being wrong.

I do agree of course with some of your "booms".

I think goalie does tend to be the most likely to have big misses, which doesn't mean that they weren't solid players. I knew, for instance, that Kelly was actually outstanding, I expected Aaron and Burke to be strong, get playing time, but I was surprised by Ryan getting ranked that way, having seen him play...the Hopkins nod, swapping last minute from Delaware commit, probably helped with that one. I wasn't surprised that Marino didn't do better. Riordan I didn't know, but got to see 4 times as an opponent, and always enjoyed some of his more unusual play. The only time my son matched up against him, my son had the better saves day (23), but Riordan (14) was on the winning team 21-18 (Lyle had 9, with shots split 57 UA- 39 HU, crazy game!). The following year, my son injured, Riordan had an outstanding game 67% including a last second save to secure 10-9 win. Riordan joining the EMO and cranking shots was a trip, as were his rambles down field with the ball. Kelly and Riordan certainly "booms".

Anyway, I'd say that the top 25 is closer to 70% predictive of high contribution, with the exceptions mostly due to injuries. After that, 26-100 it looks more like 50:50 predictive of strong contribution...not everyone's going to be an AA or all-conference, but some of those are bound to out perform beyond HS exit rankings. Others fade, get injured, or get stuck behind an even better player. And of course, some unranked players way out perform.
I definitely missed on a few of my assessments, but I think it’s relative to where you’re ranked. So Dwyer and Duvnjak were some of the best players ever to sign with Harvard and they never made an NCAA Tournament and were all Ivy a few times. Good players? Yes. Program changing? Not at all. Matthai had a good career, exactly what you’d want from the #36 player in the country. To me a top ten player should be a multi year teamed all-American. They are typically recruited and scholarshiped that way.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were not "a few times", Dwyer 4 times, Duvnjak wasn't as a freshman though starter, but as a sophomore and senior, junior year missed entire season. Both AA's. Dwyer twice, and 4 times all-NEILA. But you're right, they did not change the program, only one Ivy Championship, only one NCAA appearance...I've recounted my view as to why, and its an up close view.

They would each have been starters at literally any other team in the country and would have been AA's for any such team as well. So, seems to me that dissing them is way, way off. Coaching yes. BTW, no athletic scholarships in Ivies.

For that matter, how many attack man on that entire list would you rather have on your team than Dwyer? Brown, maybe Pannell? maybe, but only maybe. Actually, that'd be a pretty good line-up! I'd predicted on the LP threads that Brown was going to surprise way to the upside, came as no surprise to me.

I think your expectations are way too high if you think Matthai's career was simply what you'd expect from "the #36 player in the country"; that means that when he's in college, he's one of the top 144 such ranked players each year. Being a 4 year ACC starter and captain of a National Championship team is a much smaller set.

Your logic is stronger when applied to the top 10, meaning you're one of the top 40 such ranked players in any given year in college, so I take your point about "hype" but I'd suggest that players on super teams get overrated in the AA process versus those on lesser teams. Doesn't mean the players actually weren't better, indeed they may well have had to carry even more load on their own shoulders. An attack man who puts a skip feed on the stick of cutting player only to have the player miss the cage, doesn't get a point. A defenseman who disrupt and squeezes an attack man who gets a shot off that one goalie would save, another misses it...it's a goal when it goes in.

For instance, Duvnjak matched up against Tewey winner Dylan Molloy in 2016; a tremendous battle. Duvnjak had 5 CTO's and 5GB's. Molloy scored in the 1st Q; down 5-2 at Q (Kirby, from close D, had scored with 5 seconds left for HU), they turned to my son in net. Molloy got off 9 more shots, 8 on cage, most from 6 and in, no goals, with Harvard holding Brown scoreless over a 22 minute mid game stretch. Duvnjak jammed, squeezed, disrupted...and my son stopped the ball. Both benefiting from the other's tough play. After that game, despite going 62.5%, my son was told "your season is over" by the AHC, and indeed it was over two weeks later with his third concussion, ironically by a shot from the AHC in warm up.

Duvnjak was very, very good.
BigTom5
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat May 22, 2021 10:42 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by BigTom5 »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:44 pm
InsiderRoll wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:35 am Insider, I think you're taking an earful for good reason.

A bunch of your "busts" are flat wrong.

I know some of these quite well.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were outstanding, All-Ivy every year they played, and AA in some years. Selected for pro leagues.

#22 Ardrey was moved to midfield and became the top scoring midfielder, All-Ivy...he's the guy who was inexplicably moved to 3rd team by the AHC, a ridiculous move...there was no one more intensely competitive on that team than Ian...so, gotta bench him.

#27 Kirby was 4 year starter, multi-year All-Ivy for Harvard, playing SSDM or close.

#26 Haus was not only an AA, he was a 4 year starter at close D for Ohio State, named Defenseman of Year in the Big 10 his senior year, and a captain of team. You have him as a "bust"... :roll:

Matthai you have as a hit at #36...well, yeah, a 4 year starter at UNC at SSDM, captain of National Championship team...but ok...just a "hit".

Others, I guess qualify depending on how you look at it.

Spencer Parks had an incident at UNC, moved to Towson and was key player in their very good teams. All-CAA, #2 scorer, including game winner in CAA championship and 4 goals against Denver in first round NCAA tourney 10-9 win by Towson.
Is that a "bust"? Maybe, if you equate top 10 with guaranteed AA.

#31 Koerber, after being named outstanding player in UA senior game, was a starter at Denver his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State, but 3 concussions in succession ended career...I guess you can call it a "bust", but not due to IL being wrong.

I do agree of course with some of your "booms".

I think goalie does tend to be the most likely to have big misses, which doesn't mean that they weren't solid players. I knew, for instance, that Kelly was actually outstanding, I expected Aaron and Burke to be strong, get playing time, but I was surprised by Ryan getting ranked that way, having seen him play...the Hopkins nod, swapping last minute from Delaware commit, probably helped with that one. I wasn't surprised that Marino didn't do better. Riordan I didn't know, but got to see 4 times as an opponent, and always enjoyed some of his more unusual play. The only time my son matched up against him, my son had the better saves day (23), but Riordan (14) was on the winning team 21-18 (Lyle had 9, with shots split 57 UA- 39 HU, crazy game!). The following year, my son injured, Riordan had an outstanding game 67% including a last second save to secure 10-9 win. Riordan joining the EMO and cranking shots was a trip, as were his rambles down field with the ball. Kelly and Riordan certainly "booms".

Anyway, I'd say that the top 25 is closer to 70% predictive of high contribution, with the exceptions mostly due to injuries. After that, 26-100 it looks more like 50:50 predictive of strong contribution...not everyone's going to be an AA or all-conference, but some of those are bound to out perform beyond HS exit rankings. Others fade, get injured, or get stuck behind an even better player. And of course, some unranked players way out perform.
I definitely missed on a few of my assessments, but I think it’s relative to where you’re ranked. So Dwyer and Duvnjak were some of the best players ever to sign with Harvard and they never made an NCAA Tournament and were all Ivy a few times. Good players? Yes. Program changing? Not at all. Matthai had a good career, exactly what you’d want from the #36 player in the country. To me a top ten player should be a multi year teamed all-American. They are typically recruited and scholarshiped that way.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were not "a few times", Dwyer 4 times, Duvnjak wasn't as a freshman though starter, but as a sophomore and senior, junior year missed entire season. Both AA's. Dwyer twice, and 4 times all-NEILA. But you're right, they did not change the program, only one Ivy Championship, only one NCAA appearance...I've recounted my view as to why, and its an up close view.

They would each have been starters at literally any other team in the country and would have been AA's for any such team as well. So, seems to me that dissing them is way, way off. Coaching yes. BTW, no athletic scholarships in Ivies.

For that matter, how many attack man on that entire list would you rather have on your team than Dwyer? Brown, maybe Pannell? maybe, but only maybe. Actually, that'd be a pretty good line-up! I'd predicted on the LP threads that Brown was going to surprise way to the upside, came as no surprise to me.

I think your expectations are way too high if you think Matthai's career was simply what you'd expect from "the #36 player in the country"; that means that when he's in college, he's one of the top 144 such ranked players each year. Being a 4 year ACC starter and captain of a National Championship team is a much smaller set.

Your logic is stronger when applied to the top 10, meaning you're one of the top 40 such ranked players in any given year in college, so I take your point about "hype" but I'd suggest that players on super teams get overrated in the AA process versus those on lesser teams. Doesn't mean the players actually weren't better, indeed they may well have had to carry even more load on their own shoulders. An attack man who puts a skip feed on the stick of cutting player only to have the player miss the cage, doesn't get a point. A defenseman who disrupt and squeezes an attack man who gets a shot off that one goalie would save, another misses it...it's a goal when it goes in.

For instance, Duvnjak matched up against Tewey winner Dylan Molloy in 2016; a tremendous battle. Duvnjak had 5 CTO's and 5GB's. Molloy scored in the 1st Q; down 5-2 at Q (Kirby, from close D, had scored with 5 seconds left for HU), they turned to my son in net. Molloy got off 9 more shots, 8 on cage, most from 6 and in, no goals, with Harvard holding Brown scoreless over a 22 minute mid game stretch. Duvnjak jammed, squeezed, disrupted...and my son stopped the ball. Both benefiting from the other's tough play. After that game, despite going 62.5%, my son was told "your season is over" by the AHC, and indeed it was over two weeks later with his third concussion, ironically by a shot from the AHC in warm up.

Duvnjak was very, very good.
Bust might be too strong of a term, but I get Insider’s point. If Harvard brings in 2 knock out top five recruits, 2 additional top 30 guys, and 2 more top 100 players, you would expect that to be a transformative class if they pan out. End of the day that group went 31-30 in their careers. Harvard in the 4 years prior to their arrival: 30-25. So maybe not bust, but also not all booms and hits. Maybe we need a “slight underachievement in relation to rank” categorization. Or a “would have been great if DeLuca didn’t screw everything up (even though he only coached them one of their 4 years)” categorization.

And while you point to your “close view” of the players to strengthen your argument, some may think your bias weakens your case.
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 25756
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:07 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:44 pm
InsiderRoll wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:35 am Insider, I think you're taking an earful for good reason.

A bunch of your "busts" are flat wrong.

I know some of these quite well.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were outstanding, All-Ivy every year they played, and AA in some years. Selected for pro leagues.

#22 Ardrey was moved to midfield and became the top scoring midfielder, All-Ivy...he's the guy who was inexplicably moved to 3rd team by the AHC, a ridiculous move...there was no one more intensely competitive on that team than Ian...so, gotta bench him.

#27 Kirby was 4 year starter, multi-year All-Ivy for Harvard, playing SSDM or close.

#26 Haus was not only an AA, he was a 4 year starter at close D for Ohio State, named Defenseman of Year in the Big 10 his senior year, and a captain of team. You have him as a "bust"... :roll:

Matthai you have as a hit at #36...well, yeah, a 4 year starter at UNC at SSDM, captain of National Championship team...but ok...just a "hit".

Others, I guess qualify depending on how you look at it.

Spencer Parks had an incident at UNC, moved to Towson and was key player in their very good teams. All-CAA, #2 scorer, including game winner in CAA championship and 4 goals against Denver in first round NCAA tourney 10-9 win by Towson.
Is that a "bust"? Maybe, if you equate top 10 with guaranteed AA.

#31 Koerber, after being named outstanding player in UA senior game, was a starter at Denver his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State, but 3 concussions in succession ended career...I guess you can call it a "bust", but not due to IL being wrong.

I do agree of course with some of your "booms".

I think goalie does tend to be the most likely to have big misses, which doesn't mean that they weren't solid players. I knew, for instance, that Kelly was actually outstanding, I expected Aaron and Burke to be strong, get playing time, but I was surprised by Ryan getting ranked that way, having seen him play...the Hopkins nod, swapping last minute from Delaware commit, probably helped with that one. I wasn't surprised that Marino didn't do better. Riordan I didn't know, but got to see 4 times as an opponent, and always enjoyed some of his more unusual play. The only time my son matched up against him, my son had the better saves day (23), but Riordan (14) was on the winning team 21-18 (Lyle had 9, with shots split 57 UA- 39 HU, crazy game!). The following year, my son injured, Riordan had an outstanding game 67% including a last second save to secure 10-9 win. Riordan joining the EMO and cranking shots was a trip, as were his rambles down field with the ball. Kelly and Riordan certainly "booms".

Anyway, I'd say that the top 25 is closer to 70% predictive of high contribution, with the exceptions mostly due to injuries. After that, 26-100 it looks more like 50:50 predictive of strong contribution...not everyone's going to be an AA or all-conference, but some of those are bound to out perform beyond HS exit rankings. Others fade, get injured, or get stuck behind an even better player. And of course, some unranked players way out perform.
I definitely missed on a few of my assessments, but I think it’s relative to where you’re ranked. So Dwyer and Duvnjak were some of the best players ever to sign with Harvard and they never made an NCAA Tournament and were all Ivy a few times. Good players? Yes. Program changing? Not at all. Matthai had a good career, exactly what you’d want from the #36 player in the country. To me a top ten player should be a multi year teamed all-American. They are typically recruited and scholarshiped that way.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were not "a few times", Dwyer 4 times, Duvnjak wasn't as a freshman though starter, but as a sophomore and senior, junior year missed entire season. Both AA's. Dwyer twice, and 4 times all-NEILA. But you're right, they did not change the program, only one Ivy Championship, only one NCAA appearance...I've recounted my view as to why, and its an up close view.

They would each have been starters at literally any other team in the country and would have been AA's for any such team as well. So, seems to me that dissing them is way, way off. Coaching yes. BTW, no athletic scholarships in Ivies.

For that matter, how many attack man on that entire list would you rather have on your team than Dwyer? Brown, maybe Pannell? maybe, but only maybe. Actually, that'd be a pretty good line-up! I'd predicted on the LP threads that Brown was going to surprise way to the upside, came as no surprise to me.

I think your expectations are way too high if you think Matthai's career was simply what you'd expect from "the #36 player in the country"; that means that when he's in college, he's one of the top 144 such ranked players each year. Being a 4 year ACC starter and captain of a National Championship team is a much smaller set.

Your logic is stronger when applied to the top 10, meaning you're one of the top 40 such ranked players in any given year in college, so I take your point about "hype" but I'd suggest that players on super teams get overrated in the AA process versus those on lesser teams. Doesn't mean the players actually weren't better, indeed they may well have had to carry even more load on their own shoulders. An attack man who puts a skip feed on the stick of cutting player only to have the player miss the cage, doesn't get a point. A defenseman who disrupt and squeezes an attack man who gets a shot off that one goalie would save, another misses it...it's a goal when it goes in.

For instance, Duvnjak matched up against Tewey winner Dylan Molloy in 2016; a tremendous battle. Duvnjak had 5 CTO's and 5GB's. Molloy scored in the 1st Q; down 5-2 at Q (Kirby, from close D, had scored with 5 seconds left for HU), they turned to my son in net. Molloy got off 9 more shots, 8 on cage, most from 6 and in, no goals, with Harvard holding Brown scoreless over a 22 minute mid game stretch. Duvnjak jammed, squeezed, disrupted...and my son stopped the ball. Both benefiting from the other's tough play. After that game, despite going 62.5%, my son was told "your season is over" by the AHC, and indeed it was over two weeks later with his third concussion, ironically by a shot from the AHC in warm up.

Duvnjak was very, very good.
Bust might be too strong of a term, but I get Insider’s point. If Harvard brings in 2 knock out top five recruits, 2 additional top 30 guys, and 2 more top 100 players, you would expect that to be a transformative class if they pan out. End of the day that group went 31-30 in their careers. Harvard in the 4 years prior to their arrival: 30-25. So maybe not bust, but also not all booms and hits. Maybe we need a “slight underachievement in relation to rank” categorization. Or a “would have been great if DeLuca didn’t screw everything up (even though he only coached them one of their 4 years)” categorization.

And while you point to your “close view” of the players to strengthen your argument, some may think your bias weakens your case.
hmmm, my bias???
About those specific players?
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
That's the discussion here.

I quite agree about Wojcik being a weak AHC, I've said he was/is a better assistant, IMO.
I'd have no argument re program underperforming. Nor would those players.

Yes, DeLuca and Wolf were indeed incredibly toxic, specifically in that senior year, when they indeed had the talent to go much further.
And DeLuca and Wolf, (I'm told) were even more toxic, the following year as well, when HU went 6-7 with a weaker schedule.
Outright rebellion.
The following year, they went 7-6, DeLuca and Wolf having been asked to depart.

I blame a lot of that on Wojcik, who lost control of his assistants altogether. But yes, also on DeLuca.
Last edited by MDlaxfan76 on Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Henpecked
Posts: 1128
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:02 am

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by Henpecked »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:07 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:44 pm
InsiderRoll wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:35 am Insider, I think you're taking an earful for good reason.

A bunch of your "busts" are flat wrong.

I know some of these quite well.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were outstanding, All-Ivy every year they played, and AA in some years. Selected for pro leagues.

#22 Ardrey was moved to midfield and became the top scoring midfielder, All-Ivy...he's the guy who was inexplicably moved to 3rd team by the AHC, a ridiculous move...there was no one more intensely competitive on that team than Ian...so, gotta bench him.

#27 Kirby was 4 year starter, multi-year All-Ivy for Harvard, playing SSDM or close.

#26 Haus was not only an AA, he was a 4 year starter at close D for Ohio State, named Defenseman of Year in the Big 10 his senior year, and a captain of team. You have him as a "bust"... :roll:

Matthai you have as a hit at #36...well, yeah, a 4 year starter at UNC at SSDM, captain of National Championship team...but ok...just a "hit".

Others, I guess qualify depending on how you look at it.

Spencer Parks had an incident at UNC, moved to Towson and was key player in their very good teams. All-CAA, #2 scorer, including game winner in CAA championship and 4 goals against Denver in first round NCAA tourney 10-9 win by Towson.
Is that a "bust"? Maybe, if you equate top 10 with guaranteed AA.

#31 Koerber, after being named outstanding player in UA senior game, was a starter at Denver his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State, but 3 concussions in succession ended career...I guess you can call it a "bust", but not due to IL being wrong.

I do agree of course with some of your "booms".

I think goalie does tend to be the most likely to have big misses, which doesn't mean that they weren't solid players. I knew, for instance, that Kelly was actually outstanding, I expected Aaron and Burke to be strong, get playing time, but I was surprised by Ryan getting ranked that way, having seen him play...the Hopkins nod, swapping last minute from Delaware commit, probably helped with that one. I wasn't surprised that Marino didn't do better. Riordan I didn't know, but got to see 4 times as an opponent, and always enjoyed some of his more unusual play. The only time my son matched up against him, my son had the better saves day (23), but Riordan (14) was on the winning team 21-18 (Lyle had 9, with shots split 57 UA- 39 HU, crazy game!). The following year, my son injured, Riordan had an outstanding game 67% including a last second save to secure 10-9 win. Riordan joining the EMO and cranking shots was a trip, as were his rambles down field with the ball. Kelly and Riordan certainly "booms".

Anyway, I'd say that the top 25 is closer to 70% predictive of high contribution, with the exceptions mostly due to injuries. After that, 26-100 it looks more like 50:50 predictive of strong contribution...not everyone's going to be an AA or all-conference, but some of those are bound to out perform beyond HS exit rankings. Others fade, get injured, or get stuck behind an even better player. And of course, some unranked players way out perform.
I definitely missed on a few of my assessments, but I think it’s relative to where you’re ranked. So Dwyer and Duvnjak were some of the best players ever to sign with Harvard and they never made an NCAA Tournament and were all Ivy a few times. Good players? Yes. Program changing? Not at all. Matthai had a good career, exactly what you’d want from the #36 player in the country. To me a top ten player should be a multi year teamed all-American. They are typically recruited and scholarshiped that way.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were not "a few times", Dwyer 4 times, Duvnjak wasn't as a freshman though starter, but as a sophomore and senior, junior year missed entire season. Both AA's. Dwyer twice, and 4 times all-NEILA. But you're right, they did not change the program, only one Ivy Championship, only one NCAA appearance...I've recounted my view as to why, and its an up close view.

They would each have been starters at literally any other team in the country and would have been AA's for any such team as well. So, seems to me that dissing them is way, way off. Coaching yes. BTW, no athletic scholarships in Ivies.

For that matter, how many attack man on that entire list would you rather have on your team than Dwyer? Brown, maybe Pannell? maybe, but only maybe. Actually, that'd be a pretty good line-up! I'd predicted on the LP threads that Brown was going to surprise way to the upside, came as no surprise to me.

I think your expectations are way too high if you think Matthai's career was simply what you'd expect from "the #36 player in the country"; that means that when he's in college, he's one of the top 144 such ranked players each year. Being a 4 year ACC starter and captain of a National Championship team is a much smaller set.

Your logic is stronger when applied to the top 10, meaning you're one of the top 40 such ranked players in any given year in college, so I take your point about "hype" but I'd suggest that players on super teams get overrated in the AA process versus those on lesser teams. Doesn't mean the players actually weren't better, indeed they may well have had to carry even more load on their own shoulders. An attack man who puts a skip feed on the stick of cutting player only to have the player miss the cage, doesn't get a point. A defenseman who disrupt and squeezes an attack man who gets a shot off that one goalie would save, another misses it...it's a goal when it goes in.

For instance, Duvnjak matched up against Tewey winner Dylan Molloy in 2016; a tremendous battle. Duvnjak had 5 CTO's and 5GB's. Molloy scored in the 1st Q; down 5-2 at Q (Kirby, from close D, had scored with 5 seconds left for HU), they turned to my son in net. Molloy got off 9 more shots, 8 on cage, most from 6 and in, no goals, with Harvard holding Brown scoreless over a 22 minute mid game stretch. Duvnjak jammed, squeezed, disrupted...and my son stopped the ball. Both benefiting from the other's tough play. After that game, despite going 62.5%, my son was told "your season is over" by the AHC, and indeed it was over two weeks later with his third concussion, ironically by a shot from the AHC in warm up.

Duvnjak was very, very good.
Bust might be too strong of a term, but I get Insider’s point. If Harvard brings in 2 knock out top five recruits, 2 additional top 30 guys, and 2 more top 100 players, you would expect that to be a transformative class if they pan out. End of the day that group went 31-30 in their careers. Harvard in the 4 years prior to their arrival: 30-25. So maybe not bust, but also not all booms and hits. Maybe we need a “slight underachievement in relation to rank” categorization. Or a “would have been great if DeLuca didn’t screw everything up (even though he only coached them one of their 4 years)” categorization.

And while you point to your “close view” of the players to strengthen your argument, some may think your bias weakens your case.
hmmm, my bias???
About those specific players?
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
That's the discussion here.

I quite agree about Wojcik being a weak AHC, I've said he was/is a better assistant, IMO.
I'd have no argument re program underperforming. Nor would those players.

Yes, DeLuca and Wolf were indeed incredibly toxic, specifically in that senior year, when they indeed had the talent to go much further.
And DeLuca and Wolf, (I'm told) were even more toxic, the following year as well, when HU went 6-7 with a weaker schedule.
Outright rebellion.

I blame a lot of that on Wojcik, who lost control of his assistants altogether. But yes, also on DeLuca.
:D
BigTom5
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat May 22, 2021 10:42 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by BigTom5 »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
Off the top of my head: Class, Pontrello, Frocarro, Brown, Bellestri, Jack Kelly, Blaze, Telesco, Landis, Matt Dunn, Ambler… could probably find a handful more if did a deeper dive.
10stone5
Posts: 7055
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:29 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by 10stone5 »

ohmilax34 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:00 am
InsiderRoll wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:33 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:25 pm
Not following; that was IL with that "ranking"...and I'm certainly on record that I don't think they get those right, beyond the top 10, maybe 20, each year as very likely, if healthy, to be strong contributors wherever they go. Beyond that it's a crapshoot.


Kelly was a very good 1st line middie for the UNC 2016 national championship team.

One of my personal favorite midfield lines, Kelly, Michael
Tagliaferri and Shane Simpson — incredibly fast midfielders
with Pat Kelly providing great leadership,

and just plain old fun to watch game after game.
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 25756
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Henpecked wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:20 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:07 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:44 pm
InsiderRoll wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:35 am Insider, I think you're taking an earful for good reason.

A bunch of your "busts" are flat wrong.

I know some of these quite well.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were outstanding, All-Ivy every year they played, and AA in some years. Selected for pro leagues.

#22 Ardrey was moved to midfield and became the top scoring midfielder, All-Ivy...he's the guy who was inexplicably moved to 3rd team by the AHC, a ridiculous move...there was no one more intensely competitive on that team than Ian...so, gotta bench him.

#27 Kirby was 4 year starter, multi-year All-Ivy for Harvard, playing SSDM or close.

#26 Haus was not only an AA, he was a 4 year starter at close D for Ohio State, named Defenseman of Year in the Big 10 his senior year, and a captain of team. You have him as a "bust"... :roll:

Matthai you have as a hit at #36...well, yeah, a 4 year starter at UNC at SSDM, captain of National Championship team...but ok...just a "hit".

Others, I guess qualify depending on how you look at it.

Spencer Parks had an incident at UNC, moved to Towson and was key player in their very good teams. All-CAA, #2 scorer, including game winner in CAA championship and 4 goals against Denver in first round NCAA tourney 10-9 win by Towson.
Is that a "bust"? Maybe, if you equate top 10 with guaranteed AA.

#31 Koerber, after being named outstanding player in UA senior game, was a starter at Denver his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State, but 3 concussions in succession ended career...I guess you can call it a "bust", but not due to IL being wrong.

I do agree of course with some of your "booms".

I think goalie does tend to be the most likely to have big misses, which doesn't mean that they weren't solid players. I knew, for instance, that Kelly was actually outstanding, I expected Aaron and Burke to be strong, get playing time, but I was surprised by Ryan getting ranked that way, having seen him play...the Hopkins nod, swapping last minute from Delaware commit, probably helped with that one. I wasn't surprised that Marino didn't do better. Riordan I didn't know, but got to see 4 times as an opponent, and always enjoyed some of his more unusual play. The only time my son matched up against him, my son had the better saves day (23), but Riordan (14) was on the winning team 21-18 (Lyle had 9, with shots split 57 UA- 39 HU, crazy game!). The following year, my son injured, Riordan had an outstanding game 67% including a last second save to secure 10-9 win. Riordan joining the EMO and cranking shots was a trip, as were his rambles down field with the ball. Kelly and Riordan certainly "booms".

Anyway, I'd say that the top 25 is closer to 70% predictive of high contribution, with the exceptions mostly due to injuries. After that, 26-100 it looks more like 50:50 predictive of strong contribution...not everyone's going to be an AA or all-conference, but some of those are bound to out perform beyond HS exit rankings. Others fade, get injured, or get stuck behind an even better player. And of course, some unranked players way out perform.
I definitely missed on a few of my assessments, but I think it’s relative to where you’re ranked. So Dwyer and Duvnjak were some of the best players ever to sign with Harvard and they never made an NCAA Tournament and were all Ivy a few times. Good players? Yes. Program changing? Not at all. Matthai had a good career, exactly what you’d want from the #36 player in the country. To me a top ten player should be a multi year teamed all-American. They are typically recruited and scholarshiped that way.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were not "a few times", Dwyer 4 times, Duvnjak wasn't as a freshman though starter, but as a sophomore and senior, junior year missed entire season. Both AA's. Dwyer twice, and 4 times all-NEILA. But you're right, they did not change the program, only one Ivy Championship, only one NCAA appearance...I've recounted my view as to why, and its an up close view.

They would each have been starters at literally any other team in the country and would have been AA's for any such team as well. So, seems to me that dissing them is way, way off. Coaching yes. BTW, no athletic scholarships in Ivies.

For that matter, how many attack man on that entire list would you rather have on your team than Dwyer? Brown, maybe Pannell? maybe, but only maybe. Actually, that'd be a pretty good line-up! I'd predicted on the LP threads that Brown was going to surprise way to the upside, came as no surprise to me.

I think your expectations are way too high if you think Matthai's career was simply what you'd expect from "the #36 player in the country"; that means that when he's in college, he's one of the top 144 such ranked players each year. Being a 4 year ACC starter and captain of a National Championship team is a much smaller set.

Your logic is stronger when applied to the top 10, meaning you're one of the top 40 such ranked players in any given year in college, so I take your point about "hype" but I'd suggest that players on super teams get overrated in the AA process versus those on lesser teams. Doesn't mean the players actually weren't better, indeed they may well have had to carry even more load on their own shoulders. An attack man who puts a skip feed on the stick of cutting player only to have the player miss the cage, doesn't get a point. A defenseman who disrupt and squeezes an attack man who gets a shot off that one goalie would save, another misses it...it's a goal when it goes in.

For instance, Duvnjak matched up against Tewey winner Dylan Molloy in 2016; a tremendous battle. Duvnjak had 5 CTO's and 5GB's. Molloy scored in the 1st Q; down 5-2 at Q (Kirby, from close D, had scored with 5 seconds left for HU), they turned to my son in net. Molloy got off 9 more shots, 8 on cage, most from 6 and in, no goals, with Harvard holding Brown scoreless over a 22 minute mid game stretch. Duvnjak jammed, squeezed, disrupted...and my son stopped the ball. Both benefiting from the other's tough play. After that game, despite going 62.5%, my son was told "your season is over" by the AHC, and indeed it was over two weeks later with his third concussion, ironically by a shot from the AHC in warm up.

Duvnjak was very, very good.
Bust might be too strong of a term, but I get Insider’s point. If Harvard brings in 2 knock out top five recruits, 2 additional top 30 guys, and 2 more top 100 players, you would expect that to be a transformative class if they pan out. End of the day that group went 31-30 in their careers. Harvard in the 4 years prior to their arrival: 30-25. So maybe not bust, but also not all booms and hits. Maybe we need a “slight underachievement in relation to rank” categorization. Or a “would have been great if DeLuca didn’t screw everything up (even though he only coached them one of their 4 years)” categorization.

And while you point to your “close view” of the players to strengthen your argument, some may think your bias weakens your case.
hmmm, my bias???
About those specific players?
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
That's the discussion here.

I quite agree about Wojcik being a weak AHC, I've said he was/is a better assistant, IMO.
I'd have no argument re program underperforming. Nor would those players.

Yes, DeLuca and Wolf were indeed incredibly toxic, specifically in that senior year, when they indeed had the talent to go much further.
And DeLuca and Wolf, (I'm told) were even more toxic, the following year as well, when HU went 6-7 with a weaker schedule.
Outright rebellion.

I blame a lot of that on Wojcik, who lost control of his assistants altogether. But yes, also on DeLuca.
:D
:lol: yes, but I think DeLuca has a really good opportunity at Delaware...seems to me that he's re-booting well there.
10stone5
Posts: 7055
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:29 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by 10stone5 »

With age,
SOMETIMES
comes wisdom.
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 22325
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by Farfromgeneva »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:32 pm
Henpecked wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:20 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:07 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:44 pm
InsiderRoll wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:49 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:35 am Insider, I think you're taking an earful for good reason.

A bunch of your "busts" are flat wrong.

I know some of these quite well.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were outstanding, All-Ivy every year they played, and AA in some years. Selected for pro leagues.

#22 Ardrey was moved to midfield and became the top scoring midfielder, All-Ivy...he's the guy who was inexplicably moved to 3rd team by the AHC, a ridiculous move...there was no one more intensely competitive on that team than Ian...so, gotta bench him.

#27 Kirby was 4 year starter, multi-year All-Ivy for Harvard, playing SSDM or close.

#26 Haus was not only an AA, he was a 4 year starter at close D for Ohio State, named Defenseman of Year in the Big 10 his senior year, and a captain of team. You have him as a "bust"... :roll:

Matthai you have as a hit at #36...well, yeah, a 4 year starter at UNC at SSDM, captain of National Championship team...but ok...just a "hit".

Others, I guess qualify depending on how you look at it.

Spencer Parks had an incident at UNC, moved to Towson and was key player in their very good teams. All-CAA, #2 scorer, including game winner in CAA championship and 4 goals against Denver in first round NCAA tourney 10-9 win by Towson.
Is that a "bust"? Maybe, if you equate top 10 with guaranteed AA.

#31 Koerber, after being named outstanding player in UA senior game, was a starter at Denver his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State, but 3 concussions in succession ended career...I guess you can call it a "bust", but not due to IL being wrong.

I do agree of course with some of your "booms".

I think goalie does tend to be the most likely to have big misses, which doesn't mean that they weren't solid players. I knew, for instance, that Kelly was actually outstanding, I expected Aaron and Burke to be strong, get playing time, but I was surprised by Ryan getting ranked that way, having seen him play...the Hopkins nod, swapping last minute from Delaware commit, probably helped with that one. I wasn't surprised that Marino didn't do better. Riordan I didn't know, but got to see 4 times as an opponent, and always enjoyed some of his more unusual play. The only time my son matched up against him, my son had the better saves day (23), but Riordan (14) was on the winning team 21-18 (Lyle had 9, with shots split 57 UA- 39 HU, crazy game!). The following year, my son injured, Riordan had an outstanding game 67% including a last second save to secure 10-9 win. Riordan joining the EMO and cranking shots was a trip, as were his rambles down field with the ball. Kelly and Riordan certainly "booms".

Anyway, I'd say that the top 25 is closer to 70% predictive of high contribution, with the exceptions mostly due to injuries. After that, 26-100 it looks more like 50:50 predictive of strong contribution...not everyone's going to be an AA or all-conference, but some of those are bound to out perform beyond HS exit rankings. Others fade, get injured, or get stuck behind an even better player. And of course, some unranked players way out perform.
I definitely missed on a few of my assessments, but I think it’s relative to where you’re ranked. So Dwyer and Duvnjak were some of the best players ever to sign with Harvard and they never made an NCAA Tournament and were all Ivy a few times. Good players? Yes. Program changing? Not at all. Matthai had a good career, exactly what you’d want from the #36 player in the country. To me a top ten player should be a multi year teamed all-American. They are typically recruited and scholarshiped that way.
Duvnjak and Dwyer were not "a few times", Dwyer 4 times, Duvnjak wasn't as a freshman though starter, but as a sophomore and senior, junior year missed entire season. Both AA's. Dwyer twice, and 4 times all-NEILA. But you're right, they did not change the program, only one Ivy Championship, only one NCAA appearance...I've recounted my view as to why, and its an up close view.

They would each have been starters at literally any other team in the country and would have been AA's for any such team as well. So, seems to me that dissing them is way, way off. Coaching yes. BTW, no athletic scholarships in Ivies.

For that matter, how many attack man on that entire list would you rather have on your team than Dwyer? Brown, maybe Pannell? maybe, but only maybe. Actually, that'd be a pretty good line-up! I'd predicted on the LP threads that Brown was going to surprise way to the upside, came as no surprise to me.

I think your expectations are way too high if you think Matthai's career was simply what you'd expect from "the #36 player in the country"; that means that when he's in college, he's one of the top 144 such ranked players each year. Being a 4 year ACC starter and captain of a National Championship team is a much smaller set.

Your logic is stronger when applied to the top 10, meaning you're one of the top 40 such ranked players in any given year in college, so I take your point about "hype" but I'd suggest that players on super teams get overrated in the AA process versus those on lesser teams. Doesn't mean the players actually weren't better, indeed they may well have had to carry even more load on their own shoulders. An attack man who puts a skip feed on the stick of cutting player only to have the player miss the cage, doesn't get a point. A defenseman who disrupt and squeezes an attack man who gets a shot off that one goalie would save, another misses it...it's a goal when it goes in.

For instance, Duvnjak matched up against Tewey winner Dylan Molloy in 2016; a tremendous battle. Duvnjak had 5 CTO's and 5GB's. Molloy scored in the 1st Q; down 5-2 at Q (Kirby, from close D, had scored with 5 seconds left for HU), they turned to my son in net. Molloy got off 9 more shots, 8 on cage, most from 6 and in, no goals, with Harvard holding Brown scoreless over a 22 minute mid game stretch. Duvnjak jammed, squeezed, disrupted...and my son stopped the ball. Both benefiting from the other's tough play. After that game, despite going 62.5%, my son was told "your season is over" by the AHC, and indeed it was over two weeks later with his third concussion, ironically by a shot from the AHC in warm up.

Duvnjak was very, very good.
Bust might be too strong of a term, but I get Insider’s point. If Harvard brings in 2 knock out top five recruits, 2 additional top 30 guys, and 2 more top 100 players, you would expect that to be a transformative class if they pan out. End of the day that group went 31-30 in their careers. Harvard in the 4 years prior to their arrival: 30-25. So maybe not bust, but also not all booms and hits. Maybe we need a “slight underachievement in relation to rank” categorization. Or a “would have been great if DeLuca didn’t screw everything up (even though he only coached them one of their 4 years)” categorization.

And while you point to your “close view” of the players to strengthen your argument, some may think your bias weakens your case.
hmmm, my bias???
About those specific players?
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
That's the discussion here.

I quite agree about Wojcik being a weak AHC, I've said he was/is a better assistant, IMO.
I'd have no argument re program underperforming. Nor would those players.

Yes, DeLuca and Wolf were indeed incredibly toxic, specifically in that senior year, when they indeed had the talent to go much further.
And DeLuca and Wolf, (I'm told) were even more toxic, the following year as well, when HU went 6-7 with a weaker schedule.
Outright rebellion.

I blame a lot of that on Wojcik, who lost control of his assistants altogether. But yes, also on DeLuca.
:D
:lol: yes, but I think DeLuca has a really good opportunity at Delaware...seems to me that he's re-booting well there.
Seems like there’s many HCs who are 4-8yrs into being HCs on the younger side of things and it’ll be interesting to see who evolves and matures into the role successfully. Not uncommon in any sector where a younger person given the keys to a LOB will start by micromanaging and/or behaving the way they think a person in charge and with a new set of responsibilities would and with time and leadership above who pay attention some will cultivate their managerial skills well and succeed and others will flame out and make lateral moves or fall through the trees.

I think about this a lot in my world and also with respect to Coach raymond who’s in this category IMO as well. Hope he gets there. Early on there was a tight rotation, quick hook and lot of yelling because discipline was needed (which was true for the program) but yelling and punishment are only one side of leading and teaching .
Same sword they knight you they gon' good night you with
Thats' only half if they like you
That ain't even the half what they might do
Don't believe me, ask Michael
See Martin, Malcolm
See Jesus, Judas; Caesar, Brutus
See success is like suicide
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 25756
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:30 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
Off the top of my head: Class, Pontrello, Frocarro, Brown, Bellestri, Jack Kelly, Blaze, Telesco, Landis, Matt Dunn, Ambler… could probably find a handful more if did a deeper dive.
Sorry, I should have been more clear...I meant at their position. Meaning, who would you have rather had on your attack than Dwyer, who on your D rather than Duvnjak...gotta be three at each, right?

On attack, I said Brown, though not a QB player, and maybe, but only maybe Pannell...frankly I'd take Dwyer, but no knock on Pannell that's for sure. I like Bellistri, but certainly wouldn't take him over Dwyer, same for Ambler...terrific players, but not over Dwyer.

Okay, so defenders, I like your picks. Landis for sure. Telesco yup. I agree Matt Dunn outstanding; knew him from his Loyola HS days, and he kept improving. Certainly outperformed his ranking! But I wouldn't give him the nod over Duvnjak. Compare senior year, Dunn had 17 GB and 8 CT, playing 17 games on a heck of a team. Duvnjak had 48 GB's, 30 CTO's, in 15 games. And it's also with getting jerked around at the beginning of the season, short PT. That single season is 90% of Dunn's total over 4 years.

But wouldn't you love to have any or all of these guys??

If instead you're saying that your list were guys who played above the expectations, sure, and there are indeed more.

I knew Deemer Class was going to be outstanding though, saw him a ton in HS...again, with all these guys, if healthy.
Really, really good player.
BigTom5
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat May 22, 2021 10:42 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by BigTom5 »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:20 pm
BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:30 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
Off the top of my head: Class, Pontrello, Frocarro, Brown, Bellestri, Jack Kelly, Blaze, Telesco, Landis, Matt Dunn, Ambler… could probably find a handful more if did a deeper dive.
Sorry, I should have been more clear...I meant at their position. Meaning, who would you have rather had on your attack than Dwyer, who on your D rather than Duvnjak...gotta be three at each, right?

On attack, I said Brown, though not a QB player, and maybe, but only maybe Pannell...frankly I'd take Dwyer, but no knock on Pannell that's for sure. I like Bellistri, but certainly wouldn't take him over Dwyer, same for Ambler...terrific players, but not over Dwyer.

Okay, so defenders, I like your picks. Landis for sure. Telesco yup. I agree Matt Dunn outstanding; knew him from his Loyola HS days, and he kept improving. Certainly outperformed his ranking! But I wouldn't give him the nod over Duvnjak. Compare senior year, Dunn had 17 GB and 8 CT, playing 17 games on a heck of a team. Duvnjak had 48 GB's, 30 CTO's, in 15 games. And it's also with getting jerked around at the beginning of the season, short PT. That single season is 90% of Dunn's total over 4 years.

But wouldn't you love to have any or all of these guys??

If instead you're saying that your list were guys who played above the expectations, sure, and there are indeed more.

I knew Deemer Class was going to be outstanding though, saw him a ton in HS...again, with all these guys, if healthy.
Really, really good player.
Better attackmen: Brown, Pannell, Bellestri (not a QB but as impactful as Brown on those fun 15-16 teams), Ambler, and the one you keep overlooking, Pontrello - QB / leading scorer for the national champs as a senior.

Better defenders: Landis, Telesco, Dunn, Mike Quinn for sure, maybe Pifani as well but that’s a toss up.

You wanted at least 3 per position group, there you go.
lilax
Posts: 160
Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:33 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by lilax »

BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:14 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:20 pm
BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:30 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
Off the top of my head: Class, Pontrello, Frocarro, Brown, Bellestri, Jack Kelly, Blaze, Telesco, Landis, Matt Dunn, Ambler… could probably find a handful more if did a deeper dive.
Sorry, I should have been more clear...I meant at their position. Meaning, who would you have rather had on your attack than Dwyer, who on your D rather than Duvnjak...gotta be three at each, right?

On attack, I said Brown, though not a QB player, and maybe, but only maybe Pannell...frankly I'd take Dwyer, but no knock on Pannell that's for sure. I like Bellistri, but certainly wouldn't take him over Dwyer, same for Ambler...terrific players, but not over Dwyer.

Okay, so defenders, I like your picks. Landis for sure. Telesco yup. I agree Matt Dunn outstanding; knew him from his Loyola HS days, and he kept improving. Certainly outperformed his ranking! But I wouldn't give him the nod over Duvnjak. Compare senior year, Dunn had 17 GB and 8 CT, playing 17 games on a heck of a team. Duvnjak had 48 GB's, 30 CTO's, in 15 games. And it's also with getting jerked around at the beginning of the season, short PT. That single season is 90% of Dunn's total over 4 years.

But wouldn't you love to have any or all of these guys??

If instead you're saying that your list were guys who played above the expectations, sure, and there are indeed more.

I knew Deemer Class was going to be outstanding though, saw him a ton in HS...again, with all these guys, if healthy.
Really, really good player.
Better attackmen: Brown, Pannell, Bellestri (not a QB but as impactful as Brown on those fun 15-16 teams), Ambler, and the one you keep overlooking, Pontrello - QB / leading scorer for the national champs as a senior.

Better defenders: Landis, Telesco, Dunn, Mike Quinn for sure, maybe Pifani as well but that’s a toss up.

You wanted at least 3 per position group, there you go.
Quinn, Myles Jones and Matt Kavanaugh were listed on the PG List.

That year IL had a PG List and a Top 100 HS List
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 22325
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by Farfromgeneva »

I think the point is it's pretty extreme to call Dwyer a bust. Pulling back to the forest from the trees here. He was 4+ pts per game on 53% shooting and a positive GB/TO ratio as a smaller kid with the ball in his stick a lot. 38,30,68. It's a team game and coaches can have more of a negative impact than positive impact.

If you stuck Matt Rambo or Paul Rabil on a bottom half PL team you probably aren't getting past rd two, if round 1. Gate with Baum who was as good as almost anyone in the last decade got one rd 1 win. They were 36-26 in his time at Gate with one playoff appearance and one win. The prior four years Nagle's teams (06-09) went 42-21, so they did worse with Baum. 28-32 the four years after Baum, so worse but not exponentially.
Same sword they knight you they gon' good night you with
Thats' only half if they like you
That ain't even the half what they might do
Don't believe me, ask Michael
See Martin, Malcolm
See Jesus, Judas; Caesar, Brutus
See success is like suicide
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 25756
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:14 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 3:20 pm
BigTom5 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:30 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 1:17 pm
Again, which of those top 100 would you say way outperformed Dwyer and Duvnjak, that you'd rather have had on your team?
Off the top of my head: Class, Pontrello, Frocarro, Brown, Bellestri, Jack Kelly, Blaze, Telesco, Landis, Matt Dunn, Ambler… could probably find a handful more if did a deeper dive.
Sorry, I should have been more clear...I meant at their position. Meaning, who would you have rather had on your attack than Dwyer, who on your D rather than Duvnjak...gotta be three at each, right?

On attack, I said Brown, though not a QB player, and maybe, but only maybe Pannell...frankly I'd take Dwyer, but no knock on Pannell that's for sure. I like Bellistri, but certainly wouldn't take him over Dwyer, same for Ambler...terrific players, but not over Dwyer.

Okay, so defenders, I like your picks. Landis for sure. Telesco yup. I agree Matt Dunn outstanding; knew him from his Loyola HS days, and he kept improving. Certainly outperformed his ranking! But I wouldn't give him the nod over Duvnjak. Compare senior year, Dunn had 17 GB and 8 CT, playing 17 games on a heck of a team. Duvnjak had 48 GB's, 30 CTO's, in 15 games. And it's also with getting jerked around at the beginning of the season, short PT. That single season is 90% of Dunn's total over 4 years.

But wouldn't you love to have any or all of these guys??

If instead you're saying that your list were guys who played above the expectations, sure, and there are indeed more.

I knew Deemer Class was going to be outstanding though, saw him a ton in HS...again, with all these guys, if healthy.
Really, really good player.
Better attackmen: Brown, Pannell, Bellestri (not a QB but as impactful as Brown on those fun 15-16 teams), Ambler, and the one you keep overlooking, Pontrello - QB / leading scorer for the national champs as a senior.

Better defenders: Landis, Telesco, Dunn, Mike Quinn for sure, maybe Pifani as well but that’s a toss up.

You wanted at least 3 per position group, there you go.
:lol: Bellestri, excellent but #2 attack man on indeed a tremendously fun team. Fast break city! Really good, but very different role. Of course, if you have a better QB type, or stud to draw the #1 pole, then he was one heck of a #2. Helps to have the Tewey winner drawing attention! Totally agree with designation as "Boom" though. Also helps to have a 60% face off guy getting you the ball over and over again.

I disagree re James Pannell, doesn't stack up, but definitely excellent. But of course, he was #5 to Dwyer #4. Unless you want to call Pannell a "bust" which I surely wouldn't. Pannell had multiple early years hampered by injury, so cut him some slack on total career stats, but just looking at senior AA season, he had 44 points to Dwyer's 68; He had a 28.7% shooting, to Dwyer's 53.5%. Just not a close call.

Ambler, not close.
Very good, but not a close call.
Dwyer had way, way more points, and primary QB, though rarely had the ball in his stick more than a few seconds.

Sorry, certainly didn't mean to ignore Pontrello, but you do know he was a midfielder not an attack man, right? Scored a total of 70 points in his career. Would have loved to have had him on any team! But Dwyer scored 68 points in senior season alone. Different position, of course, but that's why I didn't address Pontrello.

Pifani wasn't even in that class...great defenseman though, but not in that class.

But sure, big fan of Quinn! But he was a PG, not on this list at all. Would have been the class older. But really, really good.

Not sure why you're digging this hole for yourself deeper. These are all excellent players.
Kinda ridiculous IMO not to admit that.

But I guess it's fun to simply talk some lacrosse for a change!
Last edited by MDlaxfan76 on Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 25756
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:38 pm I think the point is it's pretty extreme to call Dwyer a bust. Pulling back to the forest from the trees here. He was 4+ pts per game on 53% shooting and a positive GB/TO ratio as a smaller kid with the ball in his stick a lot. 38,30,68. It's a team game and coaches can have more of a negative impact than positive impact.

If you stuck Matt Rambo or Paul Rabil on a bottom half PL team you probably aren't getting past rd two, if round 1. Gate with Baum who was as good as almost anyone in the last decade got one rd 1 win. They were 36-26 in his time at Gate with one playoff appearance and one win. The prior four years Nagle's teams (06-09) went 42-21, so they did worse with Baum. 28-32 the four years after Baum, so worse but not exponentially.
ahhh, you want to look at 'facts'?
How dare you! ;)
molo
Posts: 1910
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:14 pm

Re: Virginia Lacrosse 2022

Post by molo »

Who got on this thread and then said, “Fly this plane to Cuba”? One might think that a thread with this title would be about the defending—and looking to three peat—NC.
I really did like those 2016 Brown and UNC teams. Pontrello was a middie until that year, when he took over at X with Cloutier on the left and Goldstock, the tall New Englander, bringing the right high heat. The Heels, with the lefty FOGO Kelly that year, set the break up lefty.
Fun fact: Pat Kelly, the natural attackman who played middie that year, was van anomaly for a Calvert Hall Kelly. He was right handed, rare for that crew .
Post Reply

Return to “D1 MENS LACROSSE”