Big Ten 2022

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Henpecked
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by Henpecked »

Wheels wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:56 pm Who's the former Duke attackman known for his speed? Blanking on his name. He's still in the PLL. Lehman is more like that. If he has the keys to that offense in a few years, it's not going to look like it currently does.
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Wheels
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by Wheels »

Henpecked wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:58 pm
Wheels wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:56 pm Who's the former Duke attackman known for his speed? Blanking on his name. He's still in the PLL. Lehman is more like that. If he has the keys to that offense in a few years, it's not going to look like it currently does.
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10stone5
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by 10stone5 »

Wheels wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:56 pm
Henpecked wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:58 pm
Wheels wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:56 pm Who's the former Duke attackman known for his speed? Blanking on his name. He's still in the PLL. Lehman is more like that. If he has the keys to that offense in a few years, it's not going to look like it currently does.
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10stone5
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by 10stone5 »

xxxxxxx wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:02 am
Kirst was great last year but let's not forget he couldn't get on the field in four years at Lehigh behind Lucas Spence, calling him the best goalie in the country is a little aggressive. Rutgers lost their entire attack unit, I think they take a step back but will still be a very good team.
The Spence brothers.
A real coup for Lehigh and a large part of the reason for their
resurgence.
Spence was highly recruited, but at that time coming from Springfield, the jury was still out on the competition he faced.
Nowadays, no problem, you have Long, top 20 to the Terps.
A lot of comparisons to Austin Kaut also out of Springfield.
Maybe Lehigh made the call early on, lets stick with this guy,
and so Kirst was sitting and playing back up.
Maybe Kirst was revitalized with that whole Kirst storyline,
we’re doing this for dad.
InsiderRoll
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by InsiderRoll »

10stone5 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:21 pm
xxxxxxx wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:02 am
Kirst was great last year but let's not forget he couldn't get on the field in four years at Lehigh behind Lucas Spence, calling him the best goalie in the country is a little aggressive. Rutgers lost their entire attack unit, I think they take a step back but will still be a very good team.
The Spence brothers.
A real coup for Lehigh and a large part of the reason for their
resurgence.
Spence was highly recruited, but at that time coming from Springfield, the jury was still out on the competition he faced.
Nowadays, no problem, you have Long, top 20 to the Terps.
A lot of comparisons to Austin Kaut also out of Springfield.
Maybe Lehigh made the call early on, lets stick with this guy,
and so Kirst was sitting and playing back up.
Maybe Kirst was revitalized with that whole Kirst storyline,
we’re doing this for dad.
Sometimes a change of scenery, renewed energy, or opportunity are all someone needs. There’s a lot of good lacrosse players in D1. They can’t all play all the time.
1766
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by 1766 »

DU-fan wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:29 pm
1766 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:03 pm
DU-fan wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:32 pm Colin Kirst is a great goalie and I agree Rutgers should be very good. But, I think calling him the best goalie in the nation is not based on statistics.

Below are the top four goalies last year by goals against. Granted Monmouth did not play the same schedule as the others. Owen McElroy was the awarded honors as the best goalie in the NCAA last year.

1 Owen McElroy Georgetown Sr. GK 16 880 962 123 8.38
2 Noah Lode Monmouth Sr. GK 11 675 675 96 8.52
3 Jack Thompson Denver So. GK 17 828 1023 119 8.62
4 Liam Entenmann Notre Dame So. GK 12 698 722 103 8.85

All four of them are playing this year.

Goalies have a low GAA average because they have a great defense in front of them.

Colin Kirst was ranked 30th:

30 Colin Kirst Rutgers Sr. GK 13 763 784 137 10.77

Logan McNaney was ranked 17th:

17 Logan McNaney Maryland So. GK 16 934 960 154 9.89

I love the enthusiasm and I hope Colin and Rutgers has a great season. I don't mean to be overly critical. I'm just pointing out stats.
I think stats can be a bit misleading sometimes. Rutgers wants to play at a breakneck pace. That's going to create more opportunities for the other team. I am not sure how that translates to stats but it seems like a consideration. His play against UNC in the quarters was sublime. All the goalies you list are great though. All good company to be a part of.
I agree that stats can be misleading. But, GAA is a good indicator of how an overall team, a defense, and a goalie support each other. FOGO's and offensives that hold the ball longer are also part of keeping goals against down.

A goalie on a team that runs a fast pace will have more saves and most likely have more goals scored on them. So total saves can be misleading too. Save percentage is also dependent on a good defense that limits inside close shots and gives up primarily outside shots.

All goalie related stats are a team effort. However, I think GAA is still one of the best team stats for a goalie and a team's defense which was the comment that Wheels made about Kirst and the Rutgers defense.
No question that the faceoff spot for Rutgers has to get better. As you state, that has a negative effect on the goals against. I think we will see improvement there this year. The B1G is a faceoff bear. It has to have the best collection of fogos in the country.
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HopFan16
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by HopFan16 »

1766 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:15 pm No question that the faceoff spot for Rutgers has to get better. As you state, that has a negative effect on the goals against. I think we will see improvement there this year. The B1G is a faceoff bear. It has to have the best collection of fogos in the country.
It's still the ACC with LaSalla, Naso, Phaup and the UNC tandem. Notre Dame is really the only potential weak spot after losing Gallagher and Leonard.

B1G faceoff play is strong with Inacio, Narewski, and Rowlett, but it's weakened overall by Maryland and Rutgers not being especially strong there. And now Penn State loses Arceri. So you've got three strong faceoffs teams and three with question marks. Not sure what the argument is that that's better than the ACC's units.

I do think the B1G probably has more faceoff depth. Outside of UNC, the other ACCs are all pretty much one guy doing everything. But those one guys are a bit better collectively than the group of B1G's top guys, IMO.

Lax Reference might be able to provide some clarity here, I know he has a stat that factors in the strength of the opposing FOGO when looking at a player's FO success rate so it may be the case that B1G FOGO's 2021 numbers were depressed from having to play eachother over and over again while the ACC got to pad stats on some lesser teams and FO men.
oldbartman
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by oldbartman »

Blanchard at OSU is not a FOGO to be ignored. Check with Lax Reference about him. Knox should put up some serious points for the Buckeyes.
courtdog
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by courtdog »

oldbartman wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:14 pm Blanchard at OSU is not a FOGO to be ignored. Check with Lax Reference about him. Knox should put up some serious points for the Buckeyes.
Have you seen OSU play offense? Not exactly a juggernaut
bananas
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by bananas »

Have to factor all when assessing goalies and defenses. Quality of opponent offenses ,number and quality of shots faced, ability to initiate off saves, communication . Fair to say that Kirst is a top five goalie . He faced good opponents and many shots , the defense in front of him while good was not Terp quality and his passing ability jumpstarted our offense.


Clear tie in between faceoffs and defense. Defenses and goalies are at a distinct disadvantage in a game when faceoffs below 35% and offenses at a advantage if faceoffs over 65%. Lehigh at 80% and ND at 62% and Georgetown at 57% means fewer possessions and less opportunities for opponent and vice versa for their offenses

Maryland at 47% and Knights at a paltry 39% dont tell tell whole story. Some ooc fogos with high % padded against weaker fogos , A fogo below 50 % is as good as their ability to hold above 40% agaisnt the better ones . DuGenio went 56% agaisnt UNC duo . Terps more than held their own against Duke and UVA

Will add that better fogos also initiate some offense off wins , does anyone know Dugenio had 3 goals and 7 assists and 7 caused turnovers?

.Look for DuGenio to improve in his 2nd year and Stephan to be a big help giving Rutgers and b10 another good duo .
gymman1031
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by gymman1031 »

Here is Michigan's schedule. Here are my two questions.

1. Does Michigan get their first double-digit win season? They went 8-6 in both 2017 and 2018.
2. Does Michigan finish in the top four of the Big Ten for the first time?

https://mgoblue.com/sports/mens-lacrosse/schedule/2022
jhu06
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by jhu06 »

gymman1031 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:20 am Here is Michigan's schedule. Here are my two questions.

1. Does Michigan get their first double-digit win season? They went 8-6 in both 2017 and 2018.
2. Does Michigan finish in the top four of the Big Ten for the first time?

https://mgoblue.com/sports/mens-lacrosse/schedule/2022
Most schedules of at large contenders have a 2-3 games against top ivy/patriot/big east/big ten teams plus an acc or two. Obviously there are only so many of those games to go around it just feels like michigan should have the budget to be able to play anyone anywhere and in year 10 or whatever it should have more meat than this.
InsiderRoll
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by InsiderRoll »

HopFan16 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:29 pm
1766 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:15 pm No question that the faceoff spot for Rutgers has to get better. As you state, that has a negative effect on the goals against. I think we will see improvement there this year. The B1G is a faceoff bear. It has to have the best collection of fogos in the country.
It's still the ACC with LaSalla, Naso, Phaup and the UNC tandem. Notre Dame is really the only potential weak spot after losing Gallagher and Leonard.

B1G faceoff play is strong with Inacio, Narewski, and Rowlett, but it's weakened overall by Maryland and Rutgers not being especially strong there. And now Penn State loses Arceri. So you've got three strong faceoffs teams and three with question marks. Not sure what the argument is that that's better than the ACC's units.

I do think the B1G probably has more faceoff depth. Outside of UNC, the other ACCs are all pretty much one guy doing everything. But those one guys are a bit better collectively than the group of B1G's top guys, IMO.

Lax Reference might be able to provide some clarity here, I know he has a stat that factors in the strength of the opposing FOGO when looking at a player's FO success rate so it may be the case that B1G FOGO's 2021 numbers were depressed from having to play eachother over and over again while the ACC got to pad stats on some lesser teams and FO men.
I’m not sure PSU will be weak there, but certainly will take a step back without Arceri. Glatz is a 5th year who had his moments against B1G teams. It will be interesting to see how he handles being the starter if he takes over as the #1.
10stone5
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by 10stone5 »

InsiderRoll wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:43 pm
HopFan16 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:29 pm
1766 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:15 pm No question that the faceoff spot for Rutgers has to get better. As you state, that has a negative effect on the goals against. I think we will see improvement there this year. The B1G is a faceoff bear. It has to have the best collection of fogos in the country.
It's still the ACC with LaSalla, Naso, Phaup and the UNC tandem. Notre Dame is really the only potential weak spot after losing Gallagher and Leonard.

B1G faceoff play is strong with Inacio, Narewski, and Rowlett, but it's weakened overall by Maryland and Rutgers not being especially strong there. And now Penn State loses Arceri. So you've got three strong faceoffs teams and three with question marks. Not sure what the argument is that that's better than the ACC's units.

I do think the B1G probably has more faceoff depth. Outside of UNC, the other ACCs are all pretty much one guy doing everything. But those one guys are a bit better collectively than the group of B1G's top guys, IMO.

Lax Reference might be able to provide some clarity here, I know he has a stat that factors in the strength of the opposing FOGO when looking at a player's FO success rate so it may be the case that B1G FOGO's 2021 numbers were depressed from having to play eachother over and over again while the ACC got to pad stats on some lesser teams and FO men.
I’m not sure PSU will be weak there, but certainly will take a step back without Arceri. Glatz is a 5th year who had his moments against B1G teams. It will be interesting to see how he handles being the starter if he takes over as the #1.
Penn State is set at goalie, they have a large sizable goalie with
three years under his belt as well as a high rated incoming
freshman. The defense is an area to be fairly confident, some
important seniors departed, but enough there to feel confident over most of their schedule. Rutgers and the Terps shredded PSU’s defense last year, but there is no reason to believe that’s going to extend to the entire schedule of teams, since this year is not an all B1G schedule.
Last edited by 10stone5 on Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
Wheels
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by Wheels »

jhu06 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:02 pm
gymman1031 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:20 am Here is Michigan's schedule. Here are my two questions.

1. Does Michigan get their first double-digit win season? They went 8-6 in both 2017 and 2018.
2. Does Michigan finish in the top four of the Big Ten for the first time?

https://mgoblue.com/sports/mens-lacrosse/schedule/2022
Most schedules of at large contenders have a 2-3 games against top ivy/patriot/big east/big ten teams plus an acc or two. Obviously there are only so many of those games to go around it just feels like michigan should have the budget to be able to play anyone anywhere and in year 10 or whatever it should have more meat than this.
Yeah, it looks like a schedule put together by a coach who knows he needs a lot of wins that might not actually matter. But, wow, look at all of the wins!!

If you look at Lax Ref's non-con SOS, MD and JHU have hard schedules; yet their overall SOS is much lower. The B1G is dragging down their overall SOS.
Wheels
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by Wheels »

10stone5 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:15 pm
Penn State is set at goalie, they have a large sizable goalie with
three years under his belt as well as a high rated incoming
freshman. The defense is an area to be fairly confident, some
important seniors departed, but enough there to not feel confident over most of their schedule. Rutgers and the Terps shredded PSU’s defense last year, but there is no reason to believe that’s going to extend to the entire schedule of teams, since this year is not an all B1G schedule.
Having seen PSU in person a couple of times last season and reading Tambroni's comments this offseason, I really struggle to see where PSU is going to excel. It took them a couple of years to tweak the offense to fit the skills of Ament and O'Keefe, so maybe that's what they've been working on this fall and into the spring. Because that offense we saw doesn't fit their personnel right now. Yes, they had a lot of injuries last year (Malone, Kelly, Traynor on offense), but I don't know if those are the guys that win one-on-ones to draw slides or find skips to deadly shooters. It looks like Tams has recruited the entire Malvern Prep senior class from this past spring, so maybe there's enough help on the way.

Before Ament, PSU loved to invert middies and attack from the wing GLE spots. Maybe they get back to that?

On defense, they just haven't been the same since Sabia graduated. I was really surprised to see them extend out so much last year to pressure ball carriers so far out from the goal. They almost created offense for opponents (reminded me of UNC). Getting beat 25 yards from the goal, sliding early and from far away, and giving up doorstep shots off quick ball movement. They didn't have the athletes to pull off that kind of defense (only 61 caused TOs). Fyock does take up a lot room in the goal, but PSU got out-shot last year (with lower SOG and shooting % than their opponents). Of course, the offense didn't help (196 TOs, 106 of which were caused TOs).

You'd think they'd pack it in more this year and let Fyock use his size and positioning to make it harder on shooters.
InsiderRoll
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by InsiderRoll »

Wheels wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:52 pm
10stone5 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:15 pm
Penn State is set at goalie, they have a large sizable goalie with
three years under his belt as well as a high rated incoming
freshman. The defense is an area to be fairly confident, some
important seniors departed, but enough there to not feel confident over most of their schedule. Rutgers and the Terps shredded PSU’s defense last year, but there is no reason to believe that’s going to extend to the entire schedule of teams, since this year is not an all B1G schedule.
Having seen PSU in person a couple of times last season and reading Tambroni's comments this offseason, I really struggle to see where PSU is going to excel. It took them a couple of years to tweak the offense to fit the skills of Ament and O'Keefe, so maybe that's what they've been working on this fall and into the spring. Because that offense we saw doesn't fit their personnel right now. Yes, they had a lot of injuries last year (Malone, Kelly, Traynor on offense), but I don't know if those are the guys that win one-on-ones to draw slides or find skips to deadly shooters. It looks like Tams has recruited the entire Malvern Prep senior class from this past spring, so maybe there's enough help on the way.

Before Ament, PSU loved to invert middies and attack from the wing GLE spots. Maybe they get back to that?

On defense, they just haven't been the same since Sabia graduated. I was really surprised to see them extend out so much last year to pressure ball carriers so far out from the goal. They almost created offense for opponents (reminded me of UNC). Getting beat 25 yards from the goal, sliding early and from far away, and giving up doorstep shots off quick ball movement. They didn't have the athletes to pull off that kind of defense (only 61 caused TOs). Fyock does take up a lot room in the goal, but PSU got out-shot last year (with lower SOG and shooting % than their opponents). Of course, the offense didn't help (196 TOs, 106 of which were caused TOs).

You'd think they'd pack it in more this year and let Fyock use his size and positioning to make it harder on shooters.
Much of this is accurate. On paper they are probably a year away from being able to compete for a B1G AQ again. None of the goalie looked good in the fall scrimmages. The offense was incredibly banged up last year and that carried over to their fall scrimmages. They do have very good dodgers in Traynor and Malone, however they are more scorers and not feeders. Defensively they have a new coordinator, but the majority of the pole group isn’t changing from last year. Swap out Cardile and insert frosh Parnham - not sure that’s an improvement. On paper the SSDM position looks to be as talented and deep a group as Tambroni has ever had there. I think they’re a bottom tier B1G team until they figure out their offensive personnel, expect a lot of young faces to play early for this team.

One thing is for sure, Tambroni is too good of a coach not to have reevaluated the program top to bottom after last year. Just not sure he has the horses to make a dramatic change in 2022. Surprised they don’t flirt with the portal a little more.
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HopFan16
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by HopFan16 »

Wheels wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:52 pm
On defense, they just haven't been the same since Sabia graduated. I was really surprised to see them extend out so much last year to pressure ball carriers so far out from the goal. They almost created offense for opponents (reminded me of UNC). Getting beat 25 yards from the goal, sliding early and from far away, and giving up doorstep shots off quick ball movement. They didn't have the athletes to pull off that kind of defense (only 61 caused TOs). Fyock does take up a lot room in the goal, but PSU got out-shot last year (with lower SOG and shooting % than their opponents). Of course, the offense didn't help (196 TOs, 106 of which were caused TOs).

You'd think they'd pack it in more this year and let Fyock use his size and positioning to make it harder on shooters.
I think Fracyon is starting by midseason. I never really got the sense that Tambroni was committed to Fyock long term. It took him awhile to make him the starter even as Kneese was clearly struggling, and then once he did he was never exactly a full-time player. Only played a full 60 minutes once last season.
Young Warrior
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by Young Warrior »

Wheels wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 6:24 pm
jhu06 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:02 pm
gymman1031 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:20 am Here is Michigan's schedule. Here are my two questions.

1. Does Michigan get their first double-digit win season? They went 8-6 in both 2017 and 2018.
2. Does Michigan finish in the top four of the Big Ten for the first time?

https://mgoblue.com/sports/mens-lacrosse/schedule/2022
Most schedules of at large contenders have a 2-3 games against top ivy/patriot/big east/big ten teams plus an acc or two. Obviously there are only so many of those games to go around it just feels like michigan should have the budget to be able to play anyone anywhere and in year 10 or whatever it should have more meat than this.
Yeah, it looks like a schedule put together by a coach who knows he needs a lot of wins that might not actually matter. But, wow, look at all of the wins!!

If you look at Lax Ref's non-con SOS, MD and JHU have hard schedules; yet their overall SOS is much lower. The B1G is dragging down their overall SOS.
Totally understand your comment about Mich's "contract year schedule". Flip side - If you were an ACC would you schedule Michigan OOC in 2022? Prob not, it will hurt your RPI.

Yes, would be nice to see Mich schedule Lehigh / Denver / GTown.
While the other B1G do have a bunch of Ivies, other than Yale and prob Penn I have no idea how good any of them actually are. Are they better than Delaware (who I think will be good)? We shall see.
To truly make noise this year, Michigan will need to avoid an early game like Merrimack a few yrs back and be undefeated heading to South Bend.
Every B1G game is obviously huge as I could see some wild tie breaker scenarios for seeding with everybody in again.
Looking forward to the season - can someone warm it up outside a bit?
Wheels
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Re: Big Ten 2022

Post by Wheels »

HopFan16 wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:14 am
Wheels wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:52 pm
On defense, they just haven't been the same since Sabia graduated. I was really surprised to see them extend out so much last year to pressure ball carriers so far out from the goal. They almost created offense for opponents (reminded me of UNC). Getting beat 25 yards from the goal, sliding early and from far away, and giving up doorstep shots off quick ball movement. They didn't have the athletes to pull off that kind of defense (only 61 caused TOs). Fyock does take up a lot room in the goal, but PSU got out-shot last year (with lower SOG and shooting % than their opponents). Of course, the offense didn't help (196 TOs, 106 of which were caused TOs).

You'd think they'd pack it in more this year and let Fyock use his size and positioning to make it harder on shooters.
I think Fracyon is starting by midseason. I never really got the sense that Tambroni was committed to Fyock long term. It took him awhile to make him the starter even as Kneese was clearly struggling, and then once he did he was never exactly a full-time player. Only played a full 60 minutes once last season.
I was surprised he moved on from Kneese mid-year last season. A 4-year starter...and boom, gone. I think it says a lot about the defense and not necessarily about the goalie. I'd be hesitant to put a freshman in goal heading into the B1G regular season unless the defense in front of him is much better. Getting lit up by college shooters isn't a good thing for the confidence of a freshman goalie. If they do get him in, it will mean the defense is probably really improved.
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