Switching the starting Points of Maryland and NJIT is interesting and, if nothing else, this exercise shows that if a 310 team is given 1,000 points and a 1,000 team is given 310 points, respectively, over time, both will reach their natural stasis. i.e. The 310 will move towards 310 and the 1,000 will move towards 1,000.
But what about teams like Bucknell? Bucknell, based on their performance last season, started the 2018 season with 490 points. Denver, based on their performance last season, started the 2018 season with 990 points. Loyola, based on their performance last season, started the 2018 season with 840 points. Denver and Loyola started the season with, respectively, 450 and 350 more points than Bucknell. Is it any wonder that Denver and Loyola are ranked 3 and 7 in the 10% Ante Ranking while Bucknell is ranked 16? What if these three teams all started with 940 points like Denver started with?
At this point in the season, Denver would have 1,464, Loyola would have 1,315, and Bucknell would have 1,135. While, for obvious reasons, the Points are now closer, Denver still outperforms Loyola who outperforms Bucknell.
But that’s the #3 and #7 teams vs. Bucknell, the #16 team. But what about the teams that are closer in ranking to #16 Bucknell. What if #15 OSU and #17 Virginia all started with an equal points? OSU started the season with 990 points. If Bucknell, OSU, and UVA all started with 990 points, where would these three teams be ranked relative to each other at this point in the season?
And, we can see, there’s a problem. By the numbers, OSU should not be ranked ahead of Bucknell and UVA.
To use the end-point of last season as a starting point of this season to measure the level of competitiveness of each D1 team seems to be a necessary evil. To pin a level of competitiveness on each team involves assessing the teams history and, for Game One of the 2018 season, seemingly, the only history we have is the team’s performance during the 2017 season. For what it’s worth, it’s helpful that this competitveness number increases or decreases throughout the season as the relevant teams experience success or a lack of success. But, besides this Game One starting point, we want to avoid any unnecessary advantages for teams in 2018 due to their performance in 2017.
The gauntlet has been thrown down.
