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There should be a high correlation between the rank of the best team you have beaten and your rank. For example, a team beats the #12 ranked team in the nation, the best team they have beaten thus far this season. In a vacuum, this team should move directly ahead of the the team they just beat which would make them… #12. All things being equal, every Monday when the D1 Rankings come out, there should be a high correlation between the rank of the best team your team has beaten and your team’s rank. With this in mind, going forward, we will be discussing BWRs: A team’s “Best Win” minus their “Rank” equals a teams BWR.
Albany – The highest ranked team that Albany has beaten is the #2 team in the nation. Albany is currently ranked #1. 2 minus 1 equals 1. So Albany has a BWR of 1. There is little difference between the rank of the best team Albany has beaten and Albany’s rank.
Maryland – Maryland’s best win was over the #4 team. They are currently ranked #2. 4 minus 2 equals 2. Maryland has a BWR of 2. Again, there is little difference between the rank of the best team Maryland has beaten and Maryland’s rank. A small, positive number.
Virginia – Virginia beat the #8 team in the nation and is ranked #9. 8 minus 9 equals -1. Virginia has a BWR of -1. A low negative number. It’s odd that Virginia is ranked behind a team they beat and this BWR of -1 expresses this inconsistency.
But Virginia’s ranking inconsistency is relatively minor. As we move forward, we will see inconsistencies that are substantially less subtle. With this in mind, let’s take a look at (1) today’s Maverik Men’s Division I Media Poll, (2) each ranked teams’ Best Wins, (3) each ranked teams’ BWR, and (4) each ranked teams’ BWR sorted by their BWR.
I. Maverik Men’s Division I Media Poll (03.12.18)
| 1 | Albany (5 – 0) |
| 2 | Maryland (5 – 1) |
| 3 | Duke (6 – 1) |
| 4 | Notre Dame (3 – 1) |
| 5 | Denver (4 – 2) |
| 6 | Villanova (6 – 1) |
| 7 | Yale (4 – 1) |
| 8 | Loyola (4 – 2) |
| 9 | Virginia (6 – 1) |
| 10 | Johns Hopkins (3 – 2) |
| 11 | Georgetown (6 – 0) |
| 12 | Vermont (7 – 0) |
| 13 | Syracuse (3 – 2) |
| 14 | North Carolina (6 – 2) |
| 15 | Army (4 – 2) |
| 16 | Lehigh (5 – 1) |
| 17 | Robert Morris (4 – 2) |
| 18 | Rutgers (4 – 2) |
| 19 | Ohio State (5 – 2) |
| 20 | Towson (3 – 3) |
II. Rank of the best team that each team (above) has beaten
| #2 | Albany (5 – 0) |
| #4 | Maryland (5 – 1) |
| #5 | Duke (6 – 1) |
| #5 | Notre Dame (3 – 1) |
| #14 | Denver (4 – 2) |
| #7 | Villanova (6 – 1) |
| #27 | Yale (4 – 1) |
| #10 | Loyola (4 – 2) |
| #8 | Virginia (6 – 1) |
| #13 | Johns Hopkins (3 – 2) |
| #17 | Georgetown (6 – 0) |
| – | Vermont (7 – 0) |
| #9 | Syracuse (3 – 2) |
| #10 | North Carolina (6 – 2) |
| #18 | Army (4 – 2) |
| #15 | Lehigh (5 – 1) |
| #25 | Robert Morris (4 – 2) |
| #17 | Rutgers (4 – 2) |
| #23 | Ohio State (5 – 2) |
| #19 | Towson (3 – 3) |
III. BWR of each team (above)
| 1 | Albany (5 – 0) |
| 2 | Maryland (5 – 1) |
| 2 | Duke (6 – 1) |
| 1 | Notre Dame (3 – 1) |
| 9 | Denver (4 – 2) |
| 1 | Villanova (6 – 1) |
| 20 | Yale (4 – 1) |
| 2 | Loyola (4 – 2) |
| -1 | Virginia (6 – 1) |
| 3 | Johns Hopkins (3 – 2) |
| 9 | Georgetown (6 – 0) |
| 18 * | Vermont (7 – 0) |
| -4 | Syracuse (3 – 2) |
| -4 | North Carolina (6 – 2) |
| 3 | Army (4 – 2) |
| -1 | Lehigh (5 – 1) |
| 8 | Robert Morris (4 – 2) |
| -1 | Rutgers (4 – 2) |
| 4 | Ohio State (5 – 2) |
| -1 | Towson (3 – 3) |
* – The best team that Vermont has beaten is Jacksonville and Jacksonville is neither ranked nor on the Received Votes list. i.e. Jacksonville is not in the Top 29. Giving Vermont the benefit of the doubt, we gave Jacksonville a ranking of 30.
IV. BWR of each team (above) sorted by BWR
The average BWR of the Top 20 teams is 3.55. The teams with BWRs at least 0.5 larger than the average BWR are highlighted in yellow.
| 20 | Yale (4 – 1) |
| 18 | Vermont (7 – 0) |
| 9 | Denver (4 – 2) |
| 8 | Robert Morris (4 – 2) |
| 6 | Georgetown (6 – 0) |
| 4 | Ohio State (5 – 2) |
| 3 | Johns Hopkins (3 – 2) |
| 3 | Army (4 – 2) |
| 2 | Maryland (5 – 1) |
| 2 | Duke (6 – 1) |
| 2 | Loyola (4 – 2) |
| 1 | Albany (5 – 0) |
| 1 | Notre Dame (3 – 1) |
| 1 | Villanova (6 – 1) |
| -1 | Virginia (6 – 1) |
| -1 | Lehigh (5 – 1) |
| -1 | Rutgers (4 – 2) |
| -1 | Towson (3 – 3) |
| -4 | Syracuse (3 – 2) |
| -4 | North Carolina (6 – 2) |
Looking at these BWRs, the two questions you need to ask are, Why do Yale, Vermont, Denver, Georgetown, and Robert Morris have such large BWRs? and, Why do Syracuse and North Carolina have BWRs of -4?
Yale – Yale’s best win was over Michigan, the #27 team in the nation. And Yale is ranked #7 in the nation. This is insane.
Villanova – Villanova has a BWR of 1. But the only reason that it’s a 1 is because they are ranked #6 and they beat the #7 ranked team… Yale. If Yale was ranked properly at #26 or similar, Villanova would have a BWR of 20. In other words, don’t be fooled by Villanova’s seemingly appropriate BWR. Villanova should not be ranked #6 in the nation.
Vermont – Vermont’s best win was over Jacksonville an unranked team that was not even listed in the “Received Votes” list. We gave Jacksonville a rank of #30 but the reality is that it may be even lower. As a consequence, Vermont’s BWR is at least 18. Vermont is undefeated but their best win is over a team that isn’t even on our radar and Vermont is ranked #12 in the nation. This is insane.
Denver – I will come back to Denver.
Robert Morris – Robert Morris’ best win was over Bellarmine, the #25 team in the nation and Robert Morris is ranked #17. This does not make sense.
Georgetown – Georgetown’s best win was over Robert Morris, the #17 team in the nation and Georgetown is ranked #11. This does not make sense.
Syracuse and North Carolina – Syracuse and North Carolina are ranked, respectively, #13 and #14 in the nation yet they beat Virginia and Johns Hopkins, respectively, the #9 and #10 teams in the nation. This does not make sense. Why are Syracuse and North Carolina ranked 4 spots below the teams they’ve beaten? Why do Syracuse and North Carolina have BWRs of -4? The answer is… Because four teams, Villanova, Yale, Georgetown, and Vermont were unjustifiably and irrationally squeezed in ahead of them. If these four teams were not unjustifiably and irrationally squeezed in, Syracuse and North Carolina would move up 4 spots and have BWRs of 0.
Denver – Denver’s best win was over North Carolina, the #14 team in the nation. And Denver is ranked #5 in the nation. This gives Denver a BWR of 9. With North Carolina moving up 4 spots, Denver would have a BWR of 5. If North Carolina was ranked extremely close to, if not in front of, the team they beat, Johns Hopkins, and North Carolina was ranked appropriately at #6, Denver would have a BWR of 1.
I can say with little to no fear of contradiction, the the lacrosse world has an agenda. And that agenda is most certainly not to accurately assess the current rankings of Men’s D1 Teams. Our next piece will speak about this agenda and how it manifests itself.
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