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As of Tuesday, February 27th in the evening, this is what we know.
- Insane – Most every poll and ranking is literally and figuratively insane. How is it possible that Penn beats Duke, their only loss is to #2 Maryland,and they’re ranked #14 while Duke is ranked #3? And this is just one example of many. Denver is 2-1 with a loss to Duke and their wins are against two of the worst teams in D1 Lacrosse: Air Force and Cleveland State. Cleveland State’s only win is against Air Force and Air Force’s only win is against a weak Marist team. None the less, Denver is ranked #5 in the nation? UNC is 4-0 with wins over Lafayette, Furman, a 3-1 Lehigh, and Hopkins and they’re ranked #10? This is literally and figuratively insane. The only thing more insane is that people give any credence to these rankings.
- Tied for #1 – With Georgetown and Villanova winning today, we continue to have twelve undefeated D1 Men’s Teams that hold the #1 Spot. In no particular order, UNC, UMD, OSU, UVA, UVM, Villanova, Georgetown, Delaware, Albany, Notre Dame, Marquette, and Siena. As long as a team is undefeated, they are by definition the #1 team in the country. If a team is playing a weak schedule, you might scratch your head. But at this point in the season, despite other rankings miraculously knighting numerous teams as powerhouses, we do not know who are the strong and weak teams. I’m 99.9% confident that Siena is not and will not be the #1 team in the country. I am not impressed with their 2-0 record with wins over a 1-2 UMass-Lowell and an 0-3 Hobart. But until a team beats Siena, by the numbers, they are the #1 team in the country. (FYI, Michigan plays Siena on Saturday. Losses are coming for Siena.)
- Tied for Last – Today, with Hartford beating Fairfield and Hofstra beating Stony Brook, Fairfield and Hofstra are no longer win-less and are finally allowed to leave the basement. We currently have nine win-less D1 Men’s Teams that hold the bottom spot. In no particular order, Drexel, NJIT, High Point, Furman, Hampton, Hobart, Binghamton, St. Josephs, and Stony Brook. As long as a team is win-less, they are by definition the bottom team in the country. If a team is playing a strong schedule, you might scratch your head. For example, Drexel is a good team. I’m 99.9% confident that Drexel is not and will not be the bottom team in the country. Drexel’s three losses are against three undefeated teams: UVA, Albany, and Villanova. But until Drexel gets a W, by the numbers, they are the bottom team in the country. (FYI, Drexel plays Marist on Saturday. Wins are coming for Drexel.)
- Everybody Else – If twelve teams are at the top and nine teams are at the bottom, then fifty teams are in between. For most teams, by the numbers, depending on whether their opponents win or lose in the upcoming games, they could be as high as #2 or as low as #70. For example, Princeton is 1-1 with a loss to UVA and a win over Monmouth. In theory, Princeton may be the #2 team in the country. i.e. The only team better than Princeton would be UVA. Alternatively, Princeton may be the #66 team in the country. (Monmouth is, at worst, the #67 team in the country. Monmouth beat Wagner who beat Manhattan who beat VMI who beat NJIT who is win-less and, as a consequence, the #71 team in the nation.) The bottomline is that we need to play more games before we can give an objective, accurate answer as to where the D1 teams should be ranked. (For the record, Princeton is currently ranked #20 in the nation by Inside Lacrosse. It’s insane.)
- Stacks and Cross Pollination – While currently we don’t have enough information to accurately rank the D1 teams, we do know numerous teams that are better than other teams that are better than other teams that are better etc.. For example, while we have no idea where to rank the 2-2 Lehigh, we do know that Lehigh beat Holy Cross who beat Harvard who beat UMass who beat Scared Heart who beat Dartmouth who beat Canisius. Currently, we have this stack of teams floating in the space between #2 and #70. But as the teams in one stack play the teams in another stack, as the stacks cross pollinate, our stacks connect with each other until we have one large, connected stack which is exactly what an objective ranking should be composed of. Here are two more stacks: one from the top of the pile and one from the bottom. #1 (along with 11 other teams) Albany beat Syracuse who beat Army who beat Rutgers who beat Robert Morris who beat Penn State. And Detroit Mercy beat Mercer who beat Cleveland State who beat Air Force who beat Marist who beat #71 (along with 8 other teams) Binghamton.
When the season started, every team had their toes on the starting line. As the season progressed, the shape of the pack became substantially narrower and longer. The pack is no longer seventy-one teams wide and, currently, is more like 10-12 teams wide. And as the undefeated teams continue to lose and the win-less teams continue to win, the pack will continue to become narrower and longer. Be patient. An accurate, objective, comprehensive ranking is slowly being formed.
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