Centennial Conference 2019

[Dehuntshigwa’es]

Agree with Dehunt ... no way the Centennial gets 2 Pool C bids.
There are only a total of eight such bids available. Cabrini will certainly take one and the NESCAC will take at least 2 more if not 3. (Tufts, Amherst, Wesleyan, Bates maybe even Williams - one gets the AQ and the others take at least 2 bids, probably 3.
The CAC will get one for sure (either Salisbury or York, and possibly 2 if CNU warrants a bid).
ODAC will take another, as likely will the Liberty Conference (RIT, RPI, SLU, Union). So if we give one to the Centennial we are already at or over the limit of 8. That being the case, don’t see how they get a 2nd Pool C bid.
The CAC has cleaned house so far this season against both the ODAC and the Centennial conferences, so I’d think that the CAC would garner a 2nd Pool C bid before either of those conferences?

I’m in the camp of doubters for a pool C in the ODAC. While W&L has 1 goal losses to York, Denison and Gettysburg, close doesn’t count. Lynchburg is very dangerous but again out of conference losses will hurt their chances. I think both teams need the AQ or the season is over

[tdaussie]

D-III,

Thanks for the Cabrini clarification!

Looking forward to your thoughts and projections as the conference play progresses.

As a novice to the Pool C rules, is there a limit to how many bids one conference can get? I understand the desire to balance North v South, but is it possible the NESCAC could get 3-4 bids?

All the best!

[fitzlax]

Cabrini is in Pool B and can lock up that bid with a win over Salisbury. The only competition to take it is Colorado College, if they win out, which is unlikely.

D-III, where is the list of Pool B (and for bonus points, Pool A) teams?

The NCAA 2019 site just lists the criteria for D1/DII/DIII, but not the conferences/teams:
https://www.ncaa.com/championships/lacr ... sion%20III

[SixBySix]

Cabrini - 1
NESCAC - 3
ODAC - 1
CAC - 1
Liberty - 1
Centennial/NCAC - 1

Did the CSAC lose its AQ? Otherwise Cabrini will not be in Pool C--they haven't lost a conference game in like ten years.
York and Salisbury will take an A and a C bid. CNU is going to be in an interesting spot--likely depends on who pulls the AQ in the ODAC and CC.
Lynchburg currently has a Pool C worthy resume, but they are also likely the AQ favorite. W&L and Roanoke both have some warts.
NCAC will not get a Pool C berth this year.
Unfortunately, I probably agree that the NESCAC is on course to be a 4-bid league.

[Cheeseandcrackers]

I don't see a Pool C for NCAC this year. Denison looks likely to take the AQ, but if they get upset I don't even see them getting a Pool C. Definitely OWU or anyone else is not worthy based on out-of-conference resume.

[tdaussie]

This past weekend's games not very clarifying in terms of the final 4 for playoffs.

F&M - big home win v GB last Wed and if they hold serve the remainder of the way should keep the all important home field for the playoffs

GB - couldn't win a F/O v F&M and were generally outplayed. Struggled with Muhlenberg on Sunday. Hoping the Ursinus game wasn't the high watermark! Can't sleep on Swarthmore on Sat.

Dickinson/Ursinus/Muhlenberg - this seems to be the battle for the remaining 2 spots. Swarthmore/Wash seem to be slightly behind these 3.

It feels like the Centennial may get 1 Pool C. Fun weeks ahead.

[SElax00]

Feel like the top 4 are kind've clear after the first week (obviously a lot can change)

1+2: Dickinson/F&M
-Probably 2 most talented offensive teams in conference. DC is led by Phillips/OConnell and F&M with Mollihan/Keating, those 4 are on a different level
-FO and goalie play will be huge for both teams down the stretch
-A lot of games before they play 4/24 but these two have played some incredible lacrosse games the past few seasons. Fun, fast paced, high scoring and both teams do not like each other. How a conference rivalry game should be played.

3. Gburg
-Tough week after UC win but wouldn't count them out. A lot of talented players who have played a lot of big games for Gettysburg. Can still get in top 2 discussion with win over DC and take care of business in other games.
4. UC
-Probably a tier below top 3 but are heading in right direction as a program. McClure and DeSimone will make them a tough out and give them the edge over next 3.

5+6+7: Mules/WAC/Swat in some order
-All 3 haven't gotten results they wanted but played top 3 teams tough
-WAC is still talented and can beat anyone who takes them lightly in conference (first quarter vs DC)
-Swat can put up #s on O. Played F&M tight for a half and gave UC a good fight
-Mules have a lot of young talent all over field and play hard. Best shot at 4th with remaining schedule.

Pool C
-Need lynchburg to win ODAC AQ to help CC (win over F&M) W&L will be below Gburg/F&M, same with CNU.
-Seems like it will come down to how many Nescac get. Amherst win over F&M, Mbury win over Dickinson will hurt probably.
-Think CC get one pool C
-Got two bids in 2018 with the following
Nescac - 2
ODAC - 2
NCAC -1
Liberty -1
-Nescac might get 3 pool Cs this year, ODACs getting 0,NCAC getting 0
-Liberty chance at 2 but thats not automatic

Might be wrong about who's in pool C now since it seems to change every year but just my thoughts

Lot of lacrosse left!
Love the CC, Go Devils!

[mdline]

Doesn't look as though any of the conference heavyweights are going at it this weekend - will be interesting to see if anyone can snatch an unexpected win. Gettysburg got a scare from Muhlenberg last weekend - maybe Swat can do what they didn't this weekend...

[mdline]

There’s your surprise of the weekend - Haverford over Dickenson 12-9.

[tdaussie]

Important upcoming games (Wed/Sat)-

F&M - McD (Wed - comfortable win) and Ursinus (Sat - at home and should take care of Bears)
GB - Dickinson (Wed - at home and facing desperate Red Devils - GB should be too good though) and Haverford (Sat - won't fall into same trap as DC)
Urs - F&M (Sat - will be tough to beat F&M on road. UB is back which is great to see however I feel they are a bit overrated in the polls - should be mid teens)
Dick - Haverford loss is big. Tough task at GB tomorrow and then need to not sleep on Swarthmore on Sat at home.

Wash/Mules/Hav/Swarth - need a few more upsets from this group to kick one of the top 4 out of playoff contention.

[Cheeseandcrackers]

Big comeback win for the U in Lancaster has created a logjam for first place. Go ahead and dust off the tiebreakers for seeding purposes.

[Laxdds]

Does anyone know what the tiebreakers are?

[overandback]

Should teams be tied in the Conference standings at the conclusion of the regular season, ties will be broken as follows:
a. Head-to-Head Centennial Conference play among tied teams;
b. Record versus teams in descending order of standing;
c. Goal-differential in games among tied teams; if tie(s) still exist(s), then fewest goals allowed in games against teams
in descending order of standing;
d. If criteria 1-2-3 does not break the tie:
i. For the final playoff position, a play-in game will be held. The Executive Director will conduct a coin flip to
determine the site;
ii. For other ties among playoff-bound teams, the Executive Director will conduct a coin flip to determine
playoff position. In the event of multiple ties, a random drawing will be held for the playoff positions.
When any secondary criteria in a multiple-team tie favors one team over the others, that team earns the seed and is removed
from the tie-breaker. Re-apply the criteria to all remaining teams, starting with the Conference’s primary tiebreaker for all
sports (head-to-head Centennial competition).

[boredatwork]

So with that information, if F&M, Gettysburg and Ursinus all win out and all teams finish at 7-1 it would be:

Head-to-Head Centennial conference play among tied team
All three teams would be tied at 1-1
B. Record versus teams in descending order of standing
All three teams would be 6-0 against remaining teams
C. Goal differential in games among tied teams
>F&M: +5 v. Gettysburg, -1 v. Ursinus = +4 in games of tied teams
>Gettysburg +4 v. Ursinus, -5 v. F&M = -1 in games of tied teams
>Ursinus -4 v. Gettysburg, +1 v. F&M = -3 in games of tied teams

So Franklin & Marshall appears to control it’s own destiny in that situation

If F&M Loses to Dickinson next Wednesday, then it would be:

Gettysburg
Ursinus
Dickinson
F&M

This all is dependent on major upsets (Swarthmore over Gettysburg, Muhlenberg over Dickinson, etc.)

Dickinson controls a lot of what happens, could move up to the #2 seed.

Important to note that Muhlenberg and WAC do control their playoff potential, the mules still has Dickinson, F&M and Ursinus while Washington College still has F&M and Gettysburg on the schedule.

Hoping for some pandemonium in the weeks to come!

[tdaussie]

Bored,

Wonderful analysis, thanks!

As I am also bored at work, my two cents are:

GB wins out - 7-1
Ursinus wins out - 7-1 (Bears proved me wrong on Sat - congrats!)
F&M (have to win two tough road games - Wash and Dick) 7-1 or 6-2
DIckinson and Wash prob end at 4-4 (Dick owns tie break)

Outside of upsets, seems like the 3 games that will decide the final seeds are:
4/20 - F&M at Wash
4/24 - F&M at Dick
4/27 - Dick at Urs

Fun stuff!

Go Bullets!

[Laxdds]

Thanks for the info. The Bullets have the advantage in their remaining games Western Maryland....err McDaniel and Washington.
Ursinus has Haverford, Dickinson and the Mules. F@M has Washington, the Mules and Dickinson, advantage Ursinus. Washington is the team that really could determine a lot they are much, much improved and could beat anybody left on their schedule. On the other hand Dickinson could run the table. The last 2 weeks will be fantastic.

GO BULLETS!

[boredatwork]

After todays transgressions (one shocking one to most):

1. Franklin & Marshall
2. Gettysburg
3. Ursinus
4. Dickinson
5. Muhlenberg
6. WAC
7. Haverford
8. Swarthmore
9. McDaniel

Notes:
-F&M: controls everything, win out against Dickinson and Muhlenberg and the Centennial runs through Lancaster.
-Gettysburg: two winnable games remaining with WAC and McDaniel. Have to be Dickinson fans (sure that doesn't sit well) in order to get the #1 seed
-Ursinus: Need to be careful because getting swept this week could leave them on the outside looking in. One win should solidify their playoff position
-Dickinson: Play both F&M and Ursinus. Win out and they are the 2 seed (Gettysburg the 1 seed)
-Muhlenberg: Play both F&M and Ursinus as well. Win out and they will not only make the tournament, but I believe would be able to get the #3 seed (if Dickinson beats F&M)
-WAC: I think they need some help, win out and get to 5-3 but losses to F&M, Ursinus, Dickinson would put them in a tough spot from a tiebreaker perspective.

I believe Haverford, Swarthmore, McDaniel are out of contention. Maybe they can take a page out of Haverford book and create some chaos with some upset wins this week.

Final week has arrived

[thislaxlife]

Haverford proves that they have some game after all. Rookie of the year for the Hav freshman Mowatt-Larssen?

Ursinus needs to figure out the goalie situation in order to put up wins against their remaining teams--posting 0 saves in a 10-6 first half is tough to handle.

[NYLaxer]

Haver played a good game, do not in any way wish to take away from that.

But with respect to the UC goalie and team situation on Sat, there were about 7 men down with a nasty stomach bug. Several who played ended up sick through the game. Most of the defense, incl GK were down, and two of the A were sick as well.

[FaithfulFord]

Thanks for the update NYLaxer.

This is back to back years the Fords have beaten an undermanned Ursinus squad to keep their playoff hopes alive. Obvious biases aside, I did some scenario analysis, and I see two realistic scenarios where the Fords make the CC tourney at 4-4.

- Scenario 1 is a tie with Dickinson where Dickinson, Muhlenberg, WAC loses out
- Scenario 2 is a tie with Dickinson and WAC where Dickinson, Muhlenberg loses out and WAC splits

This final week should be fun (as always)!