D3 Men Rankings

[SixBySix]

D3 MEN: 2019 D3 Men FanLax Computer Rankings - FINAL. Cabrini is #1 and Amherst, who played Cabrini in the Championship Final, is... #6. Several other teams simply had better seasons. http://fanlax.com/fanlax/2018/10/04/d3- ... ings-2019/

For a first pass, I'd give the system a B/B+ based on the eye test. I'd suggest for next year that the influence of SOS should be ratcheted up a bit, as the most apparent misses are some high-wins, low-SOS teams being higher that they "should". Then again, maybe that entrenches the incumbents and leads to the same issues we see in coaches/media polls of over-rating the traditional powers.

[mailsy]

Does the usila do an end of season poll? Or anybody else for that matter like they do in other sports?

[admin]

Agreed. found the issue (i think) and re-posted the rankings.

PS While we list each teams SOS (and sRPI and etc.), it's not relevant to our Rankings. (Our Rankings are very different from RPI and RPI-based rankings.) So, for example, a team could have a 20 game schedule and play 15 horrible teams as well as Salisbury, Cabrini, RIT, Tufts, and York. With an RPI-based ranking (and most every ranking that has SOS as a factor), this team's in trouble. Even if they beat Salisbury, Cabrini, etc. And that's silly. Beating good teams and not losing to bad teams is relevant. And... That's what our ranking is built on. Not schedules but Ws (that matter) and Ls (that matter).

[oldtimelax]

How does Kenyon end up #43 and OWU #54? The Bishops beat them twice, 17-7 and 25-10 and finished above them in the NCAC?

[DeepPocket]

Does the usila do an end of season poll? Or anybody else for that matter like they do in other sports?

They do and it was posted today.

1 Cabrini (10) 200 22-2 6
2 Amherst 189 18-4 7
3 Salisbury 177 22-2 2
4 Williams 161 18-4 5
5 RIT 158 20-2 1
6 York 154 19-3 4
7 Tufts 149 19-2 3
8 Denison 122 18-3 9
9 Union 105 14-4 12
10 Wesleyan 104 13-4 10
11 Washington and Lee 89 16-5 13
12 Saint John Fisher 81 17-3 18
13 Ursinus 77 13-4 8
13 Gettysburg 77 14-5 11
15 Stevens 47 16-3 16
16 Franklin and Marshall 43 12-6 14
17 Dickinson 31 11-6 15
18 Lynchburg 28 14-7 19
19 Stevenson 27 13-8 NR
20 Springfield 25 11

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... la-coaches

[admin]

How does Kenyon end up #43 and OWU #54? The Bishops beat them twice, 17-7 and 25-10 and finished above them in the NCAC?

We don't use head-to-head in our rankings. When we do, inevitably, a team ends up chasing another team's tail who is chasing another team's tails who is chasing the original team's tail. So, head-to-head, OWU can be clearly better but, when you pull back and look at each of the team's entire body of work, kenyon can be better. same idea holds true with OWU being a head of Kenyon within their conference. Anyway, with that said...

OWU has 8 losses and, though none of the losses are awful, the negative Points add up. Kenyon has 5 but... It wasn't the Ls that hurt OWU. It was their Ws. OWU beat Kenyon x2 and then their next best W is John Carroll. That's a pretty steep drop-off. Kenyon beat Sewanee, Capital, Otterbein, etc. In the beginning of the season, we looked at each teams two Best Wins. if we were still looking at the Top Two, OWU would be ahead of Kenyon. But when teams are playing 20 games and more, 2 is too low.

[richard]

[quote=mailsy post_id=56429 time=<a href="tel:1559072087">1559072087</a> user_id=1263]
Does the usila do an end of season poll? Or anybody else for that matter like they do in other sports?

They do and it was posted today.

1 Cabrini (10) 200 22-2 6
2 Amherst 189 18-4 7
3 Salisbury 177 22-2 2
4 Williams 161 18-4 5
5 RIT 158 20-2 1
6 York 154 19-3 4
7 Tufts 149 19-2 3
8 Denison 122 18-3 9
9 Union 105 14-4 12
10 Wesleyan 104 13-4 10
11 Washington and Lee 89 16-5 13
12 Saint John Fisher 81 17-3 18
13 Ursinus 77 13-4 8
13 Gettysburg 77 14-5 11
15 Stevens 47 16-3 16
16 Franklin and Marshall 43 12-6 14
17 Dickinson 31 11-6 15
18 Lynchburg 28 14-7 19
19 Stevenson 27 13-8 NR
20 Springfield 25 11

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... la-coaches
[/quote]

I can take it up to #13. At that point they suck up hard to the Centenial group that was pasted in the ncaas and Stevenson, Springfield which have no business in a top twenty discussion.

[Matnum PI]

In the tourney, Stevenson beat f&m and Springfield beat Uranus. That's worth something.

[Empirelaxer]

Agreed. found the issue (i think) and re-posted the rankings.

PS While we list each teams SOS (and sRPI and etc.), it's not relevant to our Rankings. (Our Rankings are very different from RPI and RPI-based rankings.) So, for example, a team could have a 20 game schedule and play 15 horrible teams as well as Salisbury, Cabrini, RIT, Tufts, and York. With an RPI-based ranking (and most every ranking that has SOS as a factor), this team's in trouble. Even if they beat Salisbury, Cabrini, etc. And that's silly. Beating good teams and not losing to bad teams is relevant. And... That's what our ranking is built on. Not schedules but Ws (that matter) and Ls (that matter).

If built on W’s that matter, how does a Liberty League team like Union that beat 4 Top 25 teams and only lost to Williams by 1 and RIT (the last loss by 1) finish behind two E8 teams who’s highest rank win according to this is going 1-1 head-to-head.

[richard]

In the tourney, Stevenson beat f&m and Springfield beat Uranus. That's worth something.

I'm not buying it. F&M at the end of the season had lost whatever luster they had earlier in the season and Stevie was good enough to take advantage of that. The Tufts debacle was more the real Stevie.
Springfield as I said before the tournament was a wildcard. They improved as the season wore on and if Uranus or any team overlooked them they were in trouble. Springfield had some decent wins over the season. WNEU, and Coast Guard twice. But they lost 10 games. Not top twenty worthy.

[admin]

If built on W’s that matter, how does a Liberty League team like Union that beat 4 Top 25 teams and only lost to Williams by 1 and RIT (the last loss by 1) finish behind two E8 teams who’s highest rank win according to this is going 1-1 head-to-head.

First, "losing by only" are still losses. with that said...
Union has seven good wins. M'bury, St. Lawrence, and RPI are at the top. They have 1 more loss than the two E8s, but not a big difference maker.
As you spoke to, Stevens beat St. John Fisher (which is a decent amount of Points) as well as Springfield (and C. Newport).
St. John Fisher beat Stevens as well as Gettysburg (and Clark). Beating Gettysburg isn't small.

In terms of Top 2-3 Wins, Union trails them. In terms Top 4 or more, Union wins. We did Top 3.

[admin]

I dunno, Richard. I hear you. But if you decide upfront that Stevenson sucks and then when they win, regardless of the opponents season, you say their opponent sucked and, when they lose, you say, That's the real Stevenson, of course Stevenson is going to suck.

As for Springfield, our philosophy with relation to losses is... If you lose to a team that's higher ranked than you are, the loss, for all intents and purposes, is irrelevant. e.g. If #7 loses to #1, we haven't learned anything. We already knew that #7 was worse. So why should they lose anything more than nominal Points. (And, we also knew that #1 was better but, you should always get Points for a W. We prefer the carrot to the stick.) And this was the case for the majority of Springfield's Ls. The one exception, where they got punished more than the others was their L to Sewanee. But... Their 10 losses isn't so painful. It adds up. But not so painful.

[richard]

I understand your point about Springfield. Lynchburg suffers the same issue and I am ok putting them into the last five. The difference for me is having seen them play enough times. I can't say the same about Springfield.
Stevenson I've watched closely for years. They do not suck. Their issue is a coaching and this year a talent depth issue. They are good enough to run roughshod through their conference and beat a couple of decent teams, Denison and F&M. If that moves you to think they are top twenty ok. Not me. They might be good at #30. There are other teams better. SLU, RPI, Stockton, & others.

[oldtimelax]

How does Kenyon end up #43 and OWU #54? The Bishops beat them twice, 17-7 and 25-10 and finished above them in the NCAC?

We don't use head-to-head in our rankings. When we do, inevitably, a team ends up chasing another team's tail who is chasing another team's tails who is chasing the original team's tail. So, head-to-head, OWU can be clearly better but, when you pull back and look at each of the team's entire body of work, kenyon can be better. same idea holds true with OWU being a head of Kenyon within their conference. Anyway, with that said...

OWU has 8 losses and, though none of the losses are awful, the negative Points add up. Kenyon has 5 but... It wasn't the Ls that hurt OWU. It was their Ws. OWU beat Kenyon x2 and then their next best W is John Carroll. That's a pretty steep drop-off. Kenyon beat Sewanee, Capital, Otterbein, etc. In the beginning of the season, we looked at each teams two Best Wins. if we were still looking at the Top Two, OWU would be ahead of Kenyon. But when teams are playing 20 games and more, 2 is too low.

Correction: Kenyon has 6 losses and OWU also beat Otterbein. See link: https://www.insidelacrosse.com/team/kenyon/19

[admin]

Depending who the loss was to, it shouldn't have an effect. But OWU's W should. I'll correct and re-post it.

[admin]

Reloaded the games (to make sure there aren't any missing). http://fanlax.com/fanlax/2019/05/28/201 ... ngs-final/