2024 Bracket Predictions

[Laxattackjack]

I wasn’t in the path of the eclipse, and was bored, so i ran some numbers. this is all WAY TOO EARLY, and i expect a lot to change. but still fun (in my opinion) to see how things could shake out and what kind of matchups we could see in May. don’t get upset if your team isnt on my list. i am not making a “lock of the week” prediction. i was really just curious what kind of matchups we could see

I used the info that i had. you are all welcome to use different info and put something together. i used the current IL rankings and the MASSEY rankings. then i used MASSEY matchup projections to get me to the end of the season. i then just went with the favored team to win the conference. from here, i then ranked the teams using conference winners and final records, to rank teams. at this point, i had to pick 10 at large bids. these are all teams that didn’t win the conference. these teams were selected based on final record.

At large
CNU, Swarthmore, Gettysburgh, RIT, St Lawrence, Union, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Lynchburg, and Roanoke.

i then ranked all conference winners and the 10 at large, and stopped at 32. the rest really don’t matter. the top teams are going to play one of those bottom teams and i don’t think anyone expects a #36 to beat a top 8 team. so here is what i have.

luckily, my top 8 broke into 4 south teams and 4 north teams. so those teams all got first round home game.
1 vs 32 and 16 vs 17 in one bracket. etc.

top 8 teams are

1. SU vs 32 UMASS Boston. 16 Union vs 17 Roanoke
2. RPI vs 31 Susquanna. 15 Gettysburg vs 18 York
3. Tufts vs 30 SUNY Maritime 14 Lynchburg vs 19 Bowdoin
4. Dickinson vs 29 Centre. 13 Endicott vs 20 Cortland
5. RIT VS 28 CO College. 12 CNU vs 21 Denison
6. Stevens vs 27 John Carroll. 11 St Lawrence vs 22 Nazareth
7. Babson vs 26 IL Wesleyan. 10 wesleyan vs 23 Cabrini
8. W&L vs 25 SMCM. 9 Swarthmore vs 24 Grove City

[ergit]

RIT will not get an at-large bid…

[BigMoose9]

I wasn’t in the path of the eclipse, and was bored, so i ran some numbers. this is all WAY TOO EARLY, and i expect a lot to change. but still fun (in my opinion) to see how things could shake out and what kind of matchups we could see in May. don’t get upset if your team isnt on my list. i am not making a “lock of the week” prediction. i was really just curious what kind of matchups we could see

I used the info that i had. you are all welcome to use different info and put something together. i used the current IL rankings and the MASSEY rankings. then i used MASSEY matchup projections to get me to the end of the season. i then just went with the favored team to win the conference. from here, i then ranked the teams using conference winners and final records, to rank teams. at this point, i had to pick 10 at large bids. these are all teams that didn’t win the conference. these teams were selected based on final record.

At large
CNU, Swarthmore, Gettysburgh, RIT, St Lawrence, Union, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Lynchburg, and Roanoke.

i then ranked all conference winners and the 10 at large, and stopped at 32. the rest really don’t matter. the top teams are going to play one of those bottom teams and i don’t think anyone expects a #36 to beat a top 8 team. so here is what i have.

luckily, my top 8 broke into 4 south teams and 4 north teams. so those teams all got first round home game.
1 vs 32 and 16 vs 17 in one bracket. etc.

top 8 teams are

1. SU vs 32 UMASS Boston. 16 Union vs 17 Roanoke
2. RPI vs 31 Susquanna. 15 Gettysburg vs 18 York
3. Tufts vs 30 SUNY Maritime 14 Lynchburg vs 19 Bowdoin
4. Dickinson vs 29 Centre. 13 Endicott vs 20 Cortland
5. RIT VS 28 CO College. 12 CNU vs 21 Denison
6. Stevens vs 27 John Carroll. 11 St Lawrence vs 22 Nazareth
7. Babson vs 26 IL Wesleyan. 10 wesleyan vs 23 Cabrini
8. W&L vs 25 SMCM. 9 Swarthmore vs 24 Grove City

Thanks for doing this. It’s always hard to determine what the selection committee is going to do for the at large bids. Wouldn’t say Roanoke is deserving of one of those spots, but wouldn’t surprise me if they get picked based on regional rankings.

[CentennialPundit]

I wasn’t in the path of the eclipse, and was bored, so i ran some numbers. this is all WAY TOO EARLY, and i expect a lot to change. but still fun (in my opinion) to see how things could shake out and what kind of matchups we could see in May. don’t get upset if your team isnt on my list. i am not making a “lock of the week” prediction. i was really just curious what kind of matchups we could see

I used the info that i had. you are all welcome to use different info and put something together. i used the current IL rankings and the MASSEY rankings. then i used MASSEY matchup projections to get me to the end of the season. i then just went with the favored team to win the conference. from here, i then ranked the teams using conference winners and final records, to rank teams. at this point, i had to pick 10 at large bids. these are all teams that didn’t win the conference. these teams were selected based on final record.

At large
CNU, Swarthmore, Gettysburgh, RIT, St Lawrence, Union, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Lynchburg, and Roanoke.

i then ranked all conference winners and the 10 at large, and stopped at 32. the rest really don’t matter. the top teams are going to play one of those bottom teams and i don’t think anyone expects a #36 to beat a top 8 team. so here is what i have.

luckily, my top 8 broke into 4 south teams and 4 north teams. so those teams all got first round home game.
1 vs 32 and 16 vs 17 in one bracket. etc.

top 8 teams are

1. SU vs 32 UMASS Boston. 16 Union vs 17 Roanoke
2. RPI vs 31 Susquanna. 15 Gettysburg vs 18 York
3. Tufts vs 30 SUNY Maritime 14 Lynchburg vs 19 Bowdoin
4. Dickinson vs 29 Centre. 13 Endicott vs 20 Cortland
5. RIT VS 28 CO College. 12 CNU vs 21 Denison
6. Stevens vs 27 John Carroll. 11 St Lawrence vs 22 Nazareth
7. Babson vs 26 IL Wesleyan. 10 wesleyan vs 23 Cabrini
8. W&L vs 25 SMCM. 9 Swarthmore vs 24 Grove City

Obviously this is just a prediction (nice work) but a Swarthmore vs grove city rematch after last years fiasco would be epic

[Bridgerbowl]

RIT will not get an at-large bid…

hard to beat rit once, let alone twice in conference

[Laxfan1414]

RIT will not get an at-large bid…

hard to beat rit once, let alone twice in conference

Might as well not even play the game. Just put RITs name on the trophy

[ergit]

RIT will not get an at-large bid…

hard to beat rit once, let alone twice in conference

Might as well not even play the game. Just put RITs name on the trophy

Not what I had in mind, but OK…

[Laxattackjack]

i have decided to take this one step more. best second round matchups that could be interesting.
SU vs Union
RPI Vs York
Tufts vs Bowdoin
RIT vs CNU

[SixBySix]

Swat v Grove City to play W&L in Lexington sounds oddly familiar

[laxreference]

I've always done a simulation of the DI MLAX and DI WLAX fields, but I'm trying out the approach on the DIII field. But I assume that the DIII selection process works differently than in DI.

My main questions/assumptions are:

1) RPI and your record against the various RPI buckets are king in DI. Is that the same for DIII?
1a) I've heard that regions play a role in selections and your record in your region matters?
2) Every league gets an auto-bid. (That would mean 29 auto-bids) And there are just 7 at-larges.

Right now, the projection is heavily based on the strength of your resume, using RPI as the input for how good your wins and losses are. And I'm using 29 AQs and 7 at-larges.

With that, here is the current state of the field. This is based on simulating the rest of the season, through the conference tournaments, and then looking at the teams that didn't win their league and allocating the 7 at-larges based on resume strength. You make the graphic if the chance of you making the field is at least 1% and your league gets 2 or more teams in the field in more than one simulation run.

I'd be very interested if there are any teams listed here that are clearly more than one column away from where you think they should be.

ncaa_projections_NCAAD3Men_20240410.jpg (99.72 KiB) Viewed 1631 times

[CentennialPundit]

I've always done a simulation of the DI MLAX and DI WLAX fields, but I'm trying out the approach on the DIII field. But I assume that the DIII selection process works differently than in DI.

My main questions/assumptions are:

1) RPI and your record against the various RPI buckets are king in DI. Is that the same for DIII?
1a) I've heard that regions play a role in selections and your record in your region matters?
2) Every league gets an auto-bid. (That would mean 29 auto-bids) And there are just 7 at-larges.

Right now, the projection is heavily based on the strength of your resume, using RPI as the input for how good your wins and losses are. And I'm using 29 AQs and 7 at-larges.

With that, here is the current state of the field. This is based on simulating the rest of the season, through the conference tournaments, and then looking at the teams that didn't win their league and allocating the 7 at-larges based on resume strength. You make the graphic if the chance of you making the field is at least 1% and your league gets 2 or more teams in the field in more than one simulation run.

I'd be very interested if there are any teams listed here that are clearly more than one column away from where you think they should be.


ncaa_projections_NCAAD3Men_20240410.jpg

Very cool. Like you mentioned, wins against regionally ranked teams are king. Is a bit weird since the regions vary drastically in quality, so not quite sure what else goes into consideration. Another thing, the CLC does not get an AQ (I think) since they are new.

[SixBySix]

I've always done a simulation of the DI MLAX and DI WLAX fields, but I'm trying out the approach on the DIII field. But I assume that the DIII selection process works differently than in DI.

My main questions/assumptions are:

1) RPI and your record against the various RPI buckets are king in DI. Is that the same for DIII?
1a) I've heard that regions play a role in selections and your record in your region matters?
2) Every league gets an auto-bid. (That would mean 29 auto-bids) And there are just 7 at-larges.

Right now, the projection is heavily based on the strength of your resume, using RPI as the input for how good your wins and losses are. And I'm using 29 AQs and 7 at-larges.

With that, here is the current state of the field. This is based on simulating the rest of the season, through the conference tournaments, and then looking at the teams that didn't win their league and allocating the 7 at-larges based on resume strength. You make the graphic if the chance of you making the field is at least 1% and your league gets 2 or more teams in the field in more than one simulation run.

I'd be very interested if there are any teams listed here that are clearly more than one column away from where you think they should be.

Insider Roll has done fantastic analyses in previous years viewtopic.php?t=4196, I would review his work to get a sense of how the selection process works. Big changes are that there are now 7 RR teams per region instead of varying numbers and 27 Pool A, 1 Pool B, and 10 Pool C bids this year.

[richard]

Regional rankings and where they come from has always been a mystery.

[ToeDipper78]

I wasn’t in the path of the eclipse, and was bored, so i ran some numbers. this is all WAY TOO EARLY, and i expect a lot to change. but still fun (in my opinion) to see how things could shake out and what kind of matchups we could see in May. don’t get upset if your team isnt on my list. i am not making a “lock of the week” prediction. i was really just curious what kind of matchups we could see

I used the info that i had. you are all welcome to use different info and put something together. i used the current IL rankings and the MASSEY rankings. then i used MASSEY matchup projections to get me to the end of the season. i then just went with the favored team to win the conference. from here, i then ranked the teams using conference winners and final records, to rank teams. at this point, i had to pick 10 at large bids. these are all teams that didn’t win the conference. these teams were selected based on final record.

At large
CNU, Swarthmore, Gettysburgh, RIT, St Lawrence, Union, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Lynchburg, and Roanoke.

i then ranked all conference winners and the 10 at large, and stopped at 32. the rest really don’t matter. the top teams are going to play one of those bottom teams and i don’t think anyone expects a #36 to beat a top 8 team. so here is what i have.

luckily, my top 8 broke into 4 south teams and 4 north teams. so those teams all got first round home game.
1 vs 32 and 16 vs 17 in one bracket. etc.

top 8 teams are

1. SU vs 32 UMASS Boston. 16 Union vs 17 Roanoke
2. RPI vs 31 Susquanna. 15 Gettysburg vs 18 York
3. Tufts vs 30 SUNY Maritime 14 Lynchburg vs 19 Bowdoin
4. Dickinson vs 29 Centre. 13 Endicott vs 20 Cortland
5. RIT VS 28 CO College. 12 CNU vs 21 Denison
6. Stevens vs 27 John Carroll. 11 St Lawrence vs 22 Nazareth
7. Babson vs 26 IL Wesleyan. 10 wesleyan vs 23 Cabrini
8. W&L vs 25 SMCM. 9 Swarthmore vs 24 Grove City

This is a seriously strong projection!! Love it. Would love to see the field expand even just a little-- hopefully in the near future.

[BallBag]

Just out of curiosity, with all these rosters reaching 50+ for many of these teams... when the NCAA tournament begins, how many players on the roster are actually allowed "to dress" and be eligible to enter the playoff game? And the players that do not make "the cut," are they allowed to be on the sideline with the team? Is it the same across the board of D1, D2, D3? It's kind of a shame that those players grind all year and can't even dress at least.

[Motorman]

Just out of curiosity, with all these rosters reaching 50+ for many of these teams... when the NCAA tournament begins, how many players on the roster are actually allowed "to dress" and be eligible to enter the playoff game? And the players that do not make "the cut," are they allowed to be on the sideline with the team? Is it the same across the board of D1, D2, D3? It's kind of a shame that those players grind all year and can't even dress at least.

Agree totally, it’s all about the money for NCAA. They allow rosters to blow up due to Covid, then walk away. Allow schools to cover cost if NCAA won’t . Shameful

[Laxattackjack]

Just out of curiosity, with all these rosters reaching 50+ for many of these teams... when the NCAA tournament begins, how many players on the roster are actually allowed "to dress" and be eligible to enter the playoff game? And the players that do not make "the cut," are they allowed to be on the sideline with the team? Is it the same across the board of D1, D2, D3? It's kind of a shame that those players grind all year and can't even dress at least.

not sure of the rules for 2024. prior to 2023, the rules for D3 (pretty site for all levels) was 35 players on the sidelines dressed. you could have 10 more personal on sidelines (coaches, staff players out of uniform). the rest had to sit in the stands.
in 2023, they allowed everyone dressed on the sidelines. but they only issued 35 NCAA patches per team. you needed a patch to play. if you look at videos/pitchers from last years tourney , you will see lots of kids dressed, on the sideline, without the blue NCAA patch on the front shoulder

[ergit]

Just out of curiosity, with all these rosters reaching 50+ for many of these teams... when the NCAA tournament begins, how many players on the roster are actually allowed "to dress" and be eligible to enter the playoff game? And the players that do not make "the cut," are they allowed to be on the sideline with the team? Is it the same across the board of D1, D2, D3? It's kind of a shame that those players grind all year and can't even dress at least.

Agree totally, it’s all about the money for NCAA. They allow rosters to blow up due to Covid, then walk away. Allow schools to cover cost if NCAA won’t . Shameful

It is a shame for sure. My son’s team had over 50 on the roster from day one. At Tournament time, I believe they’re allowed to carry 35 (?? - correct me if I’m wrong).
The team travelled with everyone all through the Tournament and the post-game celebration was always at the sideline with the other players.
I don’t understand the NCAA’s position on this as most competitive teams carry rosters approaching 50 players. Bottom line, it is unfair to the players who are supposed to be at the centre of everything the NCAA does.

[highbouncerswillgo]

I wasn’t in the path of the eclipse, and was bored, so i ran some numbers. this is all WAY TOO EARLY, and i expect a lot to change. but still fun (in my opinion) to see how things could shake out and what kind of matchups we could see in May. don’t get upset if your team isnt on my list. i am not making a “lock of the week” prediction. i was really just curious what kind of matchups we could see

I used the info that i had. you are all welcome to use different info and put something together. i used the current IL rankings and the MASSEY rankings. then i used MASSEY matchup projections to get me to the end of the season. i then just went with the favored team to win the conference. from here, i then ranked the teams using conference winners and final records, to rank teams. at this point, i had to pick 10 at large bids. these are all teams that didn’t win the conference. these teams were selected based on final record.

At large
CNU, Swarthmore, Gettysburgh, RIT, St Lawrence, Union, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Lynchburg, and Roanoke.

i then ranked all conference winners and the 10 at large, and stopped at 32. the rest really don’t matter. the top teams are going to play one of those bottom teams and i don’t think anyone expects a #36 to beat a top 8 team. so here is what i have.

luckily, my top 8 broke into 4 south teams and 4 north teams. so those teams all got first round home game.
1 vs 32 and 16 vs 17 in one bracket. etc.

top 8 teams are

1. SU vs 32 UMASS Boston. 16 Union vs 17 Roanoke
2. RPI vs 31 Susquanna. 15 Gettysburg vs 18 York
3. Tufts vs 30 SUNY Maritime 14 Lynchburg vs 19 Bowdoin
4. Dickinson vs 29 Centre. 13 Endicott vs 20 Cortland
5. RIT VS 28 CO College. 12 CNU vs 21 Denison
6. Stevens vs 27 John Carroll. 11 St Lawrence vs 22 Nazareth
7. Babson vs 26 IL Wesleyan. 10 wesleyan vs 23 Cabrini
8. W&L vs 25 SMCM. 9 Swarthmore vs 24 Grove City

Doesn't a team from Ohio/ midwestern PA normally host to give the midwest teams a shorter distance to travel in the first round

[Laxattackjack]

Doesn't a team from Ohio/ midwestern PA normally host to give the midwest teams a shorter distance to travel in the first round

not sure how they pick them. i am assuming top 8. but i know they want them spread out as much as possible. if a team has to travel more then 400 miles, NCAA picks up flight cost. so they try to avoid that. maybe a grove city or denison would get a home game.