The North Korea Problem

[jhu72]

So they end up with missiles tipped with conventional explosives. Not doing a nuclear deal for this reason it not a good reason.

The Euroburgers are in the process of making the US irrelevant as far as the deal is concerned, unless the US or Israel decides to attack Iran. Their Instex is a shot across Trump's (our) bow, replacing New York in a limited fashion. There is nothing US financial centers do that can't be done as cheaply in Paris, London, Berlin, etc. It's all about start up costs, to "build" the infrastructure.

[old salt]

Ballistic missiles with conventional warheads are vulnerable & not worth the expense.
That's why cruise missiles exist.
They already have IRBM's with convential warheads which can reach Israel from Iran, or Riyadh from Yemen, but they'll be shot down.
That's why they're smuggling short range missiles to Syria for Hezbollah to launch into Israel.

[jhu72]

Ballistic missiles with conventional warheads are vulnerable & not worth the expense.
That's why cruise missiles exist.
They already have IRBM's with convential warheads which can reach Israel from Iran, or Riyadh from Yemen, but they'll be shot down.
That's why they're smuggling short range missiles to Syria for Hezbollah to launch into Israel.

My point is the same, cruise missiles will be armed with conventional explosives. Not saying this is desirable, but it is better than being armed with nukes.

[old salt]

Ballistic missiles with conventional warheads are vulnerable & not worth the expense.
That's why cruise missiles exist.
They already have IRBM's with convential warheads which can reach Israel from Iran, or Riyadh from Yemen, but they'll be shot down.
That's why they're smuggling short range missiles to Syria for Hezbollah to launch into Israel.

My point is the same, cruise missiles will be armed with conventional explosives. Not saying this is desirable, but it is better than being armed with nukes.

Iran will not be permitted to develop or acquire a nuc tipped cruise missile. Even when ACO is CinC. Shalom.
.

[a fan]

Let me make it simple for you. If Iran was not testing ballistic missiles, I'd be cheering JCPOA as a success in freezing their nuc development. So long as they continue shooting off ballistic missiles, it's a fig leaf. No need for "science" to observe the missile tests.

The Mullahs, IRGC & their EUroburger pimps may think they can wait out Trump, but until there's a (D) President & 67 (D) Senators, they should not expect it to endure beyond each 4 yr Presidential term. That's the other major flaw in JCPOA.

No one said the damn thing was perfect. What we have said----repeatedly-----is the the deal has delayed the bomb for 4 years, and got inspectors on the ground. And you brush that aside as if that's a given, and no one worked to make that happen.

The Senate has been broken for a decade now. They can't pass gas, let alone a treaty. They're partly the reason we're in this mess...holding their breath and pouting, as if another 9/11 is impossible, and they'd rather get elected than protect Americans.

I wish I had all the posts about this deal when it was signed. The bulk of the right were convinced the minute Iran got the bomb, they'd hit Israel...no if's and's or but's.

I don't fear traceable ballistic missiles. I fear a bomb strapped to some 30 year old car, driven to the border of Israel. Or a boat to a port.

Because when it goes off----now what?

[a fan]

Iran will not be permitted to develop or acquire a nuc tipped cruise missile. Even when ACO is CinC. Shalom.

There it is. LeMay all over again. Intentionally set two sides on a path where war is the end goal.

I wish you could search Laxpower. You told me once that delaying the acquisition of a nuke....by days, months, years.....was EVERYTHING. Because anything can happen in that time you gain---regime change, change in goals, economic changes.

Yet here you are saying: bollocks to that.

[old salt]

Iran will not be permitted to develop or acquire a nuc tipped cruise missile. Even when ACO is CinC. Shalom.

There it is. LeMay all over again. Intentionally set two sides on a path where war is the end goal.

I wish you could search Laxpower. You told me once that delaying the acquisition of a nuke....by days, months, years.....was EVERYTHING. Because anything can happen in that time you gain---regime change, change in goals, economic changes.

Yet here you are saying: bollocks to that.

.. Do a little research on nuclear capable cruise missiles, for any nation, before you spin off into Dr Strangeloveland.

...on second thought. Never mind.

[a fan]

Don't need to.

Here's your plan, and Trump's.

1. Hold sanctions the same, and don't negotiate, don't have access to any sites in Iran.
2. Iran gets bomb.
3. US and/or Israel leadership thinks they have no choice but to attack Iran preemptively.

Oh, and my favorite
4. Denigrate and make fun of any plan other than the above.

Followed by my second favorite
5. Oh look, we intentionally started "end times". Sweet.


Gee whiz, why wouldn't I want to follow this brilliant plan?

[old salt]

Iran will not be permitted to develop or acquire a nuc tipped cruise missile. Even when ACO is CinC. Shalom.

There it is. LeMay all over again. Intentionally set two sides on a path where war is the end goal.

I wish you could search Laxpower. You told me once that delaying the acquisition of a nuke....by days, months, years.....was EVERYTHING. Because anything can happen in that time you gain---regime change, change in goals, economic changes.

Yet here you are saying: bollocks to that.

.. Do a little research on nuclear capable cruise missiles, for any nation, before you spin off into Dr Strangeloveland.

...on second thought. Never mind.

Helpful research

[a fan]

I appreciate the education. Truly. Always do.

My frustration is that Obama had a plan with these. Focus on the nuclear component. Perfect? Nope. Not even close. But I'll take 1/2 of the equation over nothing.

Trump's---or your---- plan about these are.......what?

[old salt]

I appreciate the education. Truly. Always do.

My frustration is that Obama had a plan with these. Focus on the nuclear component. Perfect? Nope. Not even close. But I'll take 1/2 of the equation over nothing.

Trump's---or your---- plan about these are.......what?

You can't separate having a nuclear device from the ability to deliver it. Whether it's a strategic nuc or a tactical nuc.

Iran is attempting to develop a strategic nuc capability to threaten large population centers.

To have sufficient "throw weight" to deliver a strategic nuc, you need a ballistic missile, manned bomber or strike aircraft, ...or a cargo ship.

Tac nucs are smaller yield, smaller size/weight, with limited effect, designed for point targets or area denial in specific tactical scenarios :
e,g. Cold War NATO's E front, Korean DMZ, suppressing an entire nation's air defense system to open a path for bombers in an all out war, the ultimate "Broken Arrow" weapon to be employed if your forces are about to be overrun.

Tac Nucs can be delivered by ship/sub/ground launched cruise missiles, stand off cruise &/or hypersonic missiles from bomber or strike aircraft, short range ballistic missiles, or even as artillery shells.

Because of their destabilizing effect, nuclear cruise missiles are limited in development & deployment.
Now picture the prospect of Iran with a nuclear cruise missile capable of reaching Israel or any of the Arab nations.
It would not be tolerated. The US would not be alone in military intervention. The Iranians realize this.
That's why they are focusing their development on ballistic missile launched strategic nuclear weapons.
Plus, they are easier to develop, as an initial nuc weapons capability.

[a fan]

Again, that's all fine. You didn't answer the question.

So what's the plan? Seems like the one I listed above is your plan. Do I have that right?

[old salt]

Keep the sanctions on until they cease fissile material development, destroy their stockpiles & centrifuges, stop nuc device testing, stop ballistic missile testing, allow IAEA inspectors to verify same.

That's what a Pres McCain, Romney, Bush bros or most (R) Senators would have done. ...not just Trump

[a fan]

That's fine. And according to US Intel, Iran would have had at least one nuke in 2015.

Again: now what?

[old salt]

What kind of shape would their economy have been in by then ?
How restive would their population have been by then ?
We'd still be closely monitoring, tracking (& targeting) their missile tests.

Multi-factored hypotheticals, with only one variable, are not vaild.

[a fan]

What kind of shape would their economy have been in by then ?
How restive would their population have been by then ?
We'd still be closely monitoring, tracking (& targeting) their missile tests.

Multi-factored hypotheticals, with only one variable, are not vaild.

Fine.
.
Here's your multi-factor: it's today. Here's what I believe your plan is:

1. Hold sanctions the same, and don't negotiate, don't have access to any sites in Iran.
2. Iran gets bomb.
3. US and/or Israel leadership thinks they have no choice but to attack Iran preemptively.

Did I miss anything?

[old salt]

What kind of shape would their economy have been in by then ?
How restive would their population have been by then ?
We'd still be closely monitoring, tracking (& targeting) their missile tests.

Multi-factored hypotheticals, with only one variable, are not vaild.

Fine.
.
Here's your multi-factor: it's today. Here's what I believe your plan is:

1. Hold sanctions the same, and don't negotiate, don't have access to any sites in Iran.
2. Iran gets bomb.
3. US and/or Israel leadership thinks they have no choice but to attack Iran preemptively.

Did I miss anything?

Iran will not attain #2 so long as they believe #3 is possible.

Have you noticed Iran's missile tests keep failing ? Shalom.

[a fan]

You lost me again.

So if this is true: what's the problem? Sanctions. No sanctions. Inspect nothing. Inspect everything. All of that is irrelevant.

[old salt]

You lost me again.

So if this is true: what's the problem? Sanctions. No sanctions. Inspect nothing. Inspect everything. All of that is irrelevant.

That's the objective. Just not there yet.

[a fan]

Alright. Alright. I guess it is what it is. Enjoy the games this weekend! And thanks for the back and forth, as always.....