2024 Pool C

[SixBySix]

Well, that makes two potential bid stealers with RMC and Gettysburg. Swat might actually be in a precarious position when the weekend shakes out.

[richard]

[quote=richard post_id=545772 time=<a href="tel:1714693481">1714693481</a> user_id=418]
[quote=Faxlax post_id=545757 time=<a href="tel:<a href="tel:1714692595">1714692595</a>">1714692595</a> user_id=3071]
W&L has certainly put themselves is a tough spot, but unless RMC wins the tournament, The Generals will be the second ODAC team in. Notwithstanding today, they have too many wins over ranked teams to ignore. RMC has just one- today.

RMC has 2 ranked wins. Hampden Sidney is on Wednesdays RR list but who knows if that will be on Sundays list.
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When the team is ranked in this week rankings they stay as ranked team even if they drop out Sunday morning. So if/when anyone was ranked in second to last poll you count as a ranked team
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Are you sure? Had never heard that. Throws a fly in the ointment of the once in always in fix that they had made.Makes no sense to me and if it is so it needs to be fixed.

[SaltCounty]

Have to imagine that W&L is a lock, they’re 13-5 with a bunch of RR wins and a very good SOS.

I feel the same.
Winner of ODAC goes with W&L

If Gettysburg beats Dickinson, and Hamilton or Middlebury wins the NESCAC AQ - what league gets affected most?

[Devil4Life]

What time do region rankings get released

Updated now.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings

Things changing already. With bubble teams losing in their tourneys, it means either teams who racked up W's with generally soft schedules (Ohio Wesleyan, Roanoke, etc) OR teams who endured brutal schedule but high profile losses (Middlebury, Amherst, Gettysburg) will benefit.

Cortland lost in an upset-- a bad loss.
York took bad L in their tourney-- don't see an 8-loss team making the tourney. At some point, you have to win games.
Middlebury should need to win NESCAC tourney or else they'd be trying to get in with 8 losses too.
Muhlenberg should need to win Centennial tourney-- Swat & Dick should be locks no matter what happens.

After tonight, Dc should be in. Would be surprised if SWAT is left out. GBC and DC should be a good one-GBC talented.

[hooray]

Any updated projections now that conference playoffs are about halfway through? Swat and W&L losing tonight definitely makes things interesting, feel like W&L is still a lock but not so sure about Swat

[ToeDipper78]

Swat, W&L, Denison will be in. W&L has the strong schedule, Swat has the strong record (going undefeated in Centennial conf play doesn't get erased by losing to Getty by 1 in the semis), Denison has clearly been the strongest of their batch all season.

A bunch of teams who would've challenged for their spots lost.

[highbouncerswillgo]

Swat, W&L, Denison will be in. W&L has the strong schedule, Swat has the strong record (going undefeated in Centennial conf play doesn't get erased by losing to Getty by 1 in the semis), Denison has clearly been the strongest of their batch all season.

A bunch of teams who would've challenged for their spots lost.

Denison and Swat both have 2 regionally ranked wins. I wouldn't call them a lock yet. (Although I do expect Denison to win their championship and get the AQ)

With tufts and W&L both losing early, these at large bids are going to go quick and teams are going to feel cheated. I believe the criteria goes 1. ranked wins 2. strength of schedule

I think Swat is going to learn the hard lesson that a cake out of conference schedule and a lot of wins is not as helpful as playing top tier teams and losing.

[SixBySix]

Fortunately for the Garnet, the third criteria is in-division win percentage. I expect they will still make the cut, but I haven't done a deep dive into resumes.

[Laxattackjack]

too many teams with good regional wins. i don’t see swarthmore making it.

only have 10 at large. here are the top teams. Wesleyan or Middlebury should win the NESCAC, RIT, Dickinson, and Lynchburg Should get AQ, if we get those outcomes, there should be 7 of the at large locked up

Tufts
Wesleyan
Middlebury
RIT
RPI
Union
St Lawrence
CNU
Dickinson
Lynchburg
W&L



teams still alive that need to win the conference and could cause another at large to be taken by a top team

Hamilton
Bowdoin
Gettysburg
RMC


Teams that have already lost and have a shot.

Amherst
Muhlenburg
Roanoke

Teams that have already lost and need all of the stars to align to have a chance.

Swarthmore
Williams
York

[pcowlax]

So many teams on the bubble this year. I think York, Roanoke and Williams have zero shot. Muhlenberg has 8 losses and very well may not have a win vs a team that makes the tournament, they should be out. Swarthmore is a team that I want to think has a good shot, because I think they are a very good team, but I'm not sure the necessary wins are there. Amherst obviously isn't getting in over Wes or Tufts. Midd with wins over Wes and SLU and Amherst x2, Amherst with wins over Swat and RPI (and less impressively over Gettysburg and Williams). At one of those two is likely out and I can't see Amherst getting in ahead of Midd with 2 H2H losses. Question is is Midd safe if they lose to Bowdoin, I wouldn't be too comfortable if I were them. I can't see Midd in over Union, even if Union ends up 0-4 vs the other 3 top LL teams.

[hooray]

too many teams with good regional wins. i don’t see swarthmore making it.

only have 10 at large. here are the top teams. Wesleyan or Middlebury should win the NESCAC, RIT, Dickinson, and Lynchburg Should get AQ, if we get those outcomes, there should be 7 of the at large locked up

Tufts
Wesleyan
Middlebury
RIT
RPI
Union
St Lawrence
CNU
Dickinson
Lynchburg
W&L



teams still alive that need to win the conference and could cause another at large to be taken by a top team

Hamilton
Bowdoin
Gettysburg
RMC


Teams that have already lost and have a shot.

Amherst
Muhlenburg
Roanoke

Teams that have already lost and need all of the stars to align to have a chance.

Swarthmore
Williams
York

Say all the favorites (Dickinson, Lynchburg, Wes) win - who are your 10 at large then? Putting muhlenburg or roanoke over swat may be the worst take I've ever seen

[BigMoose9]

too many teams with good regional wins. i don’t see swarthmore making it.

only have 10 at large. here are the top teams. Wesleyan or Middlebury should win the NESCAC, RIT, Dickinson, and Lynchburg Should get AQ, if we get those outcomes, there should be 7 of the at large locked up

Tufts
Wesleyan
Middlebury
RIT
RPI
Union
St Lawrence
CNU
Dickinson
Lynchburg
W&L



teams still alive that need to win the conference and could cause another at large to be taken by a top team

Hamilton
Bowdoin
Gettysburg
RMC


Teams that have already lost and have a shot.

Amherst
Muhlenburg
Roanoke

Teams that have already lost and need all of the stars to align to have a chance.

Swarthmore
Williams
York

Say all the favorites (Dickinson, Lynchburg, Wes) win - who are your 10 at large then? Putting muhlenburg or roanoke over swat may be the worst take I've ever seen

Agreed. Swarthmore received an at large bid last year. How is their schedule any different than what they accomplished last year. They went 8-0 in regular season conference play this year. That counts for something. Would be surprised if they don’t make it.

[highbouncerswillgo]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

[CentennialPundit]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

I believe primary criteria are
1) win %
2) ranked wins
3) SOS

[hooray]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

I believe primary criteria are
1) win %
2) ranked wins
3) SOS

Just keeping on the Swarthmore example with this criteria
1) 14-2 record, 88% win rate
2) Wins over Dickinson (at the time #5), Gettysburg (at the time #9), loss to Amherst (at the time #14)
3) Weak out of conference, but 8-0 in conference -- by far weakest area here is SOS but seems like least important criteria

I think they are on the bubble absolutely, but on the inside looking out assuming we see minimal upsets this weekend

[pcowlax]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

I believe primary criteria are
1) win %
2) ranked wins
3) SOS

Just keeping on the Swarthmore example with this criteria
1) 14-2 record, 88% win rate
2) Wins over Dickinson (at the time #5), Gettysburg (at the time #9), loss to Amherst (at the time #14)
3) Weak out of conference, but 8-0 in conference -- by far weakest area here is SOS but seems like least important criteria

I think they are on the bubble absolutely, but on the inside looking out assuming we see minimal upsets this weekend

They are indeed on the bubble and certainly a good enough team to be in. Important to remember though rankings of teams and rankings of team they beat are not considered at all. Also, in regards to the regional rankings, "at the time" is, as it should be, meaningless. RR wins are based off the final regional rankings, you get no credit if a team was RR when you beat them but aren't at the end. Finally, conference record is not a criteria.

[CentennialPundit]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

I believe primary criteria are
1) win %
2) ranked wins
3) SOS

Just keeping on the Swarthmore example with this criteria
1) 14-2 record, 88% win rate
2) Wins over Dickinson (at the time #5), Gettysburg (at the time #9), loss to Amherst (at the time #14)
3) Weak out of conference, but 8-0 in conference -- by far weakest area here is SOS but seems like least important criteria

I think they are on the bubble absolutely, but on the inside looking out assuming we see minimal upsets this weekend

They are indeed on the bubble and certainly a good enough team to be in. Important to remember though rankings of teams and rankings of team they beat are not considered at all. Also, in regards to the regional rankings, "at the time" is, as it should be, meaningless. RR wins are based off the final regional rankings, you get no credit if a team was RR when you beat them but aren't at the end. Finally, conference record is not a criteria.

right. As of now Swarthmore has 2 regional wins (Dickinson Muhlenberg). I do not know if they get updated again before selection Sunday (I assume so), in that case I would figure muhlenberg either stays in RR or flips with Gettysburg, so it remains the same.

[SouthieLax]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

I believe primary criteria are
1) win %
2) ranked wins
3) SOS

Just keeping on the Swarthmore example with this criteria
1) 14-2 record, 88% win rate
2) Wins over Dickinson (at the time #5), Gettysburg (at the time #9), loss to Amherst (at the time #14)
3) Weak out of conference, but 8-0 in conference -- by far weakest area here is SOS but seems like least important criteria

I think they are on the bubble absolutely, but on the inside looking out assuming we see minimal upsets this weekend

SOS is the most important part of the Criteria…by far.

[BigMoose9]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

I believe primary criteria are
1) win %
2) ranked wins
3) SOS

Just keeping on the Swarthmore example with this criteria
1) 14-2 record, 88% win rate
2) Wins over Dickinson (at the time #5), Gettysburg (at the time #9), loss to Amherst (at the time #14)
3) Weak out of conference, but 8-0 in conference -- by far weakest area here is SOS but seems like least important criteria

I think they are on the bubble absolutely, but on the inside looking out assuming we see minimal upsets this weekend

They are indeed on the bubble and certainly a good enough team to be in. Important to remember though rankings of teams and rankings of team they beat are not considered at all. Also, in regards to the regional rankings, "at the time" is, as it should be, meaningless. RR wins are based off the final regional rankings, you get no credit if a team was RR when you beat them but aren't at the end. Finally, conference record is not a criteria.

right. As of now Swarthmore has 2 regional wins (Dickinson Muhlenberg). I do not know if they get updated again before selection Sunday (I assume so), in that case I would figure muhlenberg either stays in RR or flips with Gettysburg, so it remains the same.

So by losing to Gettysburg, Swarthmore could theoretically pick up another RR win by losing to them if Gburg becomes ranked? Assuming they don’t replace Muhlenberg. Swarthmore better hope Randolph Macon doesn’t beat Lynchburg tomorrow.

[CentennialPundit]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

I believe primary criteria are
1) win %
2) ranked wins
3) SOS

Just keeping on the Swarthmore example with this criteria
1) 14-2 record, 88% win rate
2) Wins over Dickinson (at the time #5), Gettysburg (at the time #9), loss to Amherst (at the time #14)
3) Weak out of conference, but 8-0 in conference -- by far weakest area here is SOS but seems like least important criteria

I think they are on the bubble absolutely, but on the inside looking out assuming we see minimal upsets this weekend

SOS is the most important part of the Criteria…by far.

That’s obviously not true. Wins outrank SOS by a landslide e.g why York isn’t in contention.