SixBySix wrote: ↑Wed Apr 10, 2024 11:59 am
WAC has a lot more talent than your upper-half MAC squads...
I respectfully disagree.
MAC Commonwealth
York (WAC isn’t close)
Stevenson (WAC isn’t close)
Eastern (doubled up WAC this year- isn’t close)
Messiah (beat MW by 1, who beat WAC by 2) End of top half
Widener (lost by 1 to E’town who WAC beat by 6)
MAC Freedom
Stevens (WAC isn’t close)
Arcadia (3 goals loss to Eastern, vs WACs 7 goal loss)
DeSales (beat Mules by 3, who beat WAC by 7)
Misericordia (lost by 7 to Ithaca, who beat WAC by 4) End of top half
I see WAC as able to be somewhere around or just below Messiah in the Commonwealth, and above Misericordia in the Freedom. Arcadia and DeSales have had many Centennial OOC games that will provide more insight as WAC trudges through their conference schedule.
If you are just making claims on who is “close/better” based off box scores then there’s no real argument to be had.
Eastern beat WAC by 7. Eastern lost to UMW by 6. WAC lost to UMW by 2. What does that prove? Nothing honestly. WAC beat Skidmore who beat Trinity who beat Hamilton who beat Lynchburg.
All I know from watching a lot of WAC this season is they have competed close with some good teams but always seem to have a period of the game where turd completely hits the fan. Pair that with below average FO & Goalie play, it’s hard to win games. I don’t expect them to beat any of these ranked teams but do know they can run with teams when playing well.
westernbestern wrote: ↑Wed Apr 10, 2024 5:22 pm
Eastern beat WAC by 7. Eastern lost to UMW by 6. WAC lost to UMW by 2. What does that prove? Nothing honestly. WAC beat Skidmore who beat Trinity who beat Hamilton who beat Lynchburg.
That’s just being ridiculous. It proves that Eastern beat WAC by 7. That’s what it proves. The only score you cited that matters in this scenario is the heads up game between these two teams, because that’s who is being compared talent wise, and they actually played each other.
westernbestern wrote: ↑Wed Apr 10, 2024 5:22 pm
All I know from watching a lot of WAC this season is they have competed close with some good teams but always seem to have a period of the game where turd completely hits the fan. Pair that with below average FO & Goalie play, it’s hard to win games. I don’t expect them to beat any of these ranked teams but do know they can run with teams when playing well.
SixBySix wrote: ↑Wed Apr 10, 2024 11:59 am
WAC has a lot more talent than your upper-half MAC squads...
I respectfully disagree.
MAC Commonwealth
York (WAC isn’t close)
Stevenson (WAC isn’t close)
Eastern (doubled up WAC this year- isn’t close)
Messiah (beat MW by 1, who beat WAC by 2) End of top half
Widener (lost by 1 to E’town who WAC beat by 6)
MAC Freedom
Stevens (WAC isn’t close)
Arcadia (3 goals loss to Eastern, vs WACs 7 goal loss)
DeSales (beat Mules by 3, who beat WAC by 7)
Misericordia (lost by 7 to Ithaca, who beat WAC by 4) End of top half
I see WAC as able to be somewhere around or just below Messiah in the Commonwealth, and above Misericordia in the Freedom. Arcadia and DeSales have had many Centennial OOC games that will provide more insight as WAC trudges through their conference schedule.
If you are just making claims on who is “close/better” based off box scores then there’s no real argument to be had.
Eastern beat WAC by 7. Eastern lost to UMW by 6. WAC lost to UMW by 2. What does that prove? Nothing honestly. WAC beat Skidmore who beat Trinity who beat Hamilton who beat Lynchburg.
All I know from watching a lot of WAC this season is they have competed close with some good teams but always seem to have a period of the game where turd completely hits the fan. Pair that with below average FO & Goalie play, it’s hard to win games. I don’t expect them to beat any of these ranked teams but do know they can run with teams when playing well.
+1 - tough start to the game tonight. But the last sentence of that take is spot on.
WashedUp06 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 08, 2024 3:56 pm
Mid-Week Game of the Week (in the CC) - Mules vs Ursinus
This one will provide some more clarity to who will be in /out of playoff contention. Ursinus is coming off a big OT win and the Mules are coming off a dominant effort vs McDaniel (the score isn't indicative of the dominance of the performance & the score was pretty lopsided). Both teams have had head scratching losses & glimpses of being quite formidable...which teams show up on Wednesday is anyone's guess.
My pick: Mules 11 Ursinus 9 - Mules seems to be trending in an upward fashion and their young players are really starting to click with a lot of the early season learning / experience behind them.
Other Picks:
Gburg over F&M - 14-9
Dickinson over Mcdaniel - A lot to a little
SWAT over WAC - 15-8
Mules vs Ursinus- Mules are slightly better and are more put together in between the lines. Ursinus plays tough vs everyone but the Mules have more talent in the middle of the field. X factor is Ursinus’s goalie who is red hot Mules 10-9
Gettysburg vs F&M- Bullets come out angry vs a melancholy Dips team and roll 12-5
Dickinson vs Western Maryland- The Red Devils are playing a bit down recently to competition. McDaniel will be a welcomed break. McDaniels Face-off situation is bleak(even Gettysburg’s guys ate him up) Dickinson 20-4
Swat vs WAC- spirited effort by the Shoremen over the weekend. Swat might come in feeling a bit to big for their britches. Chestertown at night might be just the recipe for an upset. Shore 11-10
Blind optimism despite constant failure is a terrible drug, isn’t it?
Mules at Bullets- Is this the game Muhlenberg finally puts it together for 4 quarters? Gettysburg D always ready but will offense be clicking from the start? Don't foresee Mules stealing the W because Bullets are so good on rides and transition. Mules ongoing slow starts not a good recipe at this place on the road.
F&M at Ursinus- Someone's postseason dreams likely end here. Have to think Dips finally feel confident after a brutal stretch. Faceoffs will be super lopsided for F&M. That many more possessions will translate to goals and a win.
Dickinson at Swat- Has to be a super close game, right? Forget about the soft schedule for Swat- they keep collecting W's but DraftKings has Dickinson +2 but we call it even.
Haverford at McDaniel- Fords had a surprise playoff spot slip away last week. Seems like silly sports talk but Green Terror will be foaming to get CC win, and Haverford is not a physically big team. Maybe this is a grand game?
ToeDipper78 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 9:58 pm
This weekend things get real good:
Mules at Bullets- Is this the game Muhlenberg finally puts it together for 4 quarters? Gettysburg D always ready but will offense be clicking from the start? Don't foresee Mules stealing the W because Bullets are so good on rides and transition. Mules ongoing slow starts not a good recipe at this place on the road.
F&M at Ursinus- Someone's postseason dreams likely end here. Have to think Dips finally feel confident after a brutal stretch. Faceoffs will be super lopsided for F&M. That many more possessions will translate to goals and a win.
Dickinson at Swat- Has to be a super close game, right? Forget about the soft schedule for Swat- they keep collecting W's but DraftKings has Dickinson +2 but we call it even.
Haverford at McDaniel- Fords had a surprise playoff spot slip away last week. Seems like silly sports talk but Green Terror will be foaming to get CC win, and Haverford is not a physically big team. Maybe this is a grand game?
Ursinus FOSs are better than you think.
Swat faithful predicting change of guard- glad it will be determined on field. DC 45-6 over past three years and they have everyone back from last year except Brandau, McCloskey and Farrell.
Should be a great game!
ToeDipper78 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 9:58 pm
This weekend things get real good:
Mules at Bullets- Is this the game Muhlenberg finally puts it together for 4 quarters? Gettysburg D always ready but will offense be clicking from the start? Don't foresee Mules stealing the W because Bullets are so good on rides and transition. Mules ongoing slow starts not a good recipe at this place on the road.
F&M at Ursinus- Someone's postseason dreams likely end here. Have to think Dips finally feel confident after a brutal stretch. Faceoffs will be super lopsided for F&M. That many more possessions will translate to goals and a win.
Dickinson at Swat- Has to be a super close game, right? Forget about the soft schedule for Swat- they keep collecting W's but DraftKings has Dickinson +2 but we call it even.
Haverford at McDaniel- Fords had a surprise playoff spot slip away last week. Seems like silly sports talk but Green Terror will be foaming to get CC win, and Haverford is not a physically big team. Maybe this is a grand game?
Ursinus FOSs are better than you think.
Swat faithful predicting change of guard- glad it will be determined on field. DC 45-6 over past three years and they have everyone back from last year except Brandau, McCloskey and Farrell.
Should be a great game!
Mules at Bullets - Think this could be a low scoring game & determined by special teams, special plays, special players (getting my cool GenZ quotes in today). If Gburg shuts down #17 & #31 for Mules, then I think Gburg pulls it out (potentially with ease). If those 2 players have similar games to their past few then this stays close with transition / goalie play being the X factor. Over under 17.5. Mules -3
WashedUp06 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:28 am
Mules at Bullets - Think this could be a low scoring game & determined by special teams, special plays, special players (getting my cool GenZ quotes in today). If Gburg shuts down #17 & #31 for Mules, then I think Gburg pulls it out (potentially with ease). If those 2 players have similar games to their past few then this stays close with transition / goalie play being the X factor. Over under 17.5. Mules -3
... you think the Mules win 11-7? Or did you mean +3?
WashedUp06 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:28 am
Mules at Bullets - Think this could be a low scoring game & determined by special teams, special plays, special players (getting my cool GenZ quotes in today). If Gburg shuts down #17 & #31 for Mules, then I think Gburg pulls it out (potentially with ease). If those 2 players have similar games to their past few then this stays close with transition / goalie play being the X factor. Over under 17.5. Mules -3
... you think the Mules win 11-7? Or did you mean +3?
I assume he meant +3, same way I figure the person above meant Dickinson -2.
WashedUp06 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:28 am
Mules at Bullets - Think this could be a low scoring game & determined by special teams, special plays, special players (getting my cool GenZ quotes in today). If Gburg shuts down #17 & #31 for Mules, then I think Gburg pulls it out (potentially with ease). If those 2 players have similar games to their past few then this stays close with transition / goalie play being the X factor. Over under 17.5. Mules -3
... you think the Mules win 11-7? Or did you mean +3?
Meant + 3...Friday, watching masters, working (procrastinating)
ToeDipper78 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 9:58 pm
This weekend things get real good:
Mules at Bullets- Is this the game Muhlenberg finally puts it together for 4 quarters? Gettysburg D always ready but will offense be clicking from the start? Don't foresee Mules stealing the W because Bullets are so good on rides and transition. Mules ongoing slow starts not a good recipe at this place on the road.
F&M at Ursinus- Someone's postseason dreams likely end here. Have to think Dips finally feel confident after a brutal stretch. Faceoffs will be super lopsided for F&M. That many more possessions will translate to goals and a win.
Dickinson at Swat- Has to be a super close game, right? Forget about the soft schedule for Swat- they keep collecting W's but DraftKings has Dickinson +2 but we call it even.
Haverford at McDaniel- Fords had a surprise playoff spot slip away last week. Seems like silly sports talk but Green Terror will be foaming to get CC win, and Haverford is not a physically big team. Maybe this is a grand game?
Ursinus FOSs are better than you think.
Swat faithful predicting change of guard- glad it will be determined on field. DC 45-6 over past three years and they have everyone back from last year except Brandau, McCloskey and Farrell.
Should be a great game!
Mules at Bullets - Think this could be a low scoring game & determined by special teams, special plays, special players (getting my cool GenZ quotes in today). If Gburg shuts down #17 & #31 for Mules, then I think Gburg pulls it out (potentially with ease). If those 2 players have similar games to their past few then this stays close with transition / goalie play being the X factor. Over under 17.5. Mules +3
The statistical significance of the Transitive Property of D3 Lacrosse Box Scores (TPD3LBS) has long been debated by the sport’s top analytical minds. Primarily, it's methodology is implemented when ranking and evaluating teams based off prior results. X team beat Y, and Y beat Z, thus X>Z, is the general framework of said theory (Deep Pocket et. al., 2024). TPD3LBS unfolds perfectly until Trinity beats Wesleyan on a Wednesday night, or York loses to Grove City. This theory allows you to selectively choose common opponents, and the next thing you know, you're picking Roanake over Middlebury.
It is important to consider who's paying in these games at the end of day, and what factors may drive the results we observe in the box score. Did the yellow school bus from 1994 break down on the way to the game? Was the dinning hall serving bean and cheese quesadillas for lunch? Does their star attackman have a problem set due tomorrow? Who had to sit out of practice on Monday for a drunken mistake made on Saturday night? All these factors must be considered when releasing our weekly picks. The TPD3LBS can be used anecdotally to validate the way you feel about your team, but I urge you all to consider the sporadic nature of D3 lacrosse games when making picks.
The back half of conference play starts now, and the race for May is in full effect. A few teams have risen to the top, solidifying their chances at CC title contention. Lucky for us, two of these teams face off on Saturday. Then there's the bubble: Mules, Bears, Fords. I was lucky enough to get boots on the ground for Ursinus/Muhlenberg, and it was a classic midweek slugfest. Low-hanging chirps from the sidelines, 13 failed clears, and shockingly good goalie play. It's clear to me that all three of the bubble teams are neck and neck, I expect each of them to go 1-1 against the opposing two. The bottom third of the conference features two regulars and an unlikely addition to the party. Saw an Adam Shefter report that the lack of senior leadership, and "tough love" in the F&M locker room has led to their demise. I doubt they will be down for long, but I can promise you all those guys are thinking about at this point in the season is Memorial Day down the shore .
Enough jabber, lets get into this week's picks. As always, gamble responsibly.
Franklin & Marshall @ Ursinus (-2.5)
Who would have foreseen this spread 2 months ago? This game will tell us if there's any belief left in that renovated F&M football locker room, although they'll be getting dressed in a supply closet next to Patterson Field. Ursinus needs this bad, and they showed up with their backs against the wall last week. F&M will pick off one of these playoff hopefuls before their nightmare season is over, but will it be Ursinus? Cavallaro can't decide who he wants to keep on the field, shuffling between guys every week, which doesn't bode well against an Ursinus team finding consistency. Singer is stopping the ball at 55%, and I expect another great game out of him this weekend. At the end of the day, we've got a team playing for pride versus a team playing for a playoff birth. A broken clock is right twice a day, and I think F&M gets something to click tomorrow. Dips 14-12.
Haverford (-7.5) @ McDaniel
The Fords were afforded a restful Wednesday, while the rest of the conference went at each other's necks. All except for McDaniel, who visited the paper shredder known as Carlisle, PA. The past two years the Green Terror have made these games relatively respectful, but they remain extremely unorganized on defense. I find myself yelling at my monitor watching WMC, begging somebody to talk on defense. Indecisive sliding and poor communication around the two-man game has filled up the stat sheet for their conference opponents thus far. I expect more of the same this weekend, as Haverford has a sour taste in their mouth after last week's loss. Haverford's new coach is full of energy, and I'm sure he got after his guys with a full week of practice. This game should be close before the McDanks defense gives in. If you're picking the Terror in this one you need to turn on the film. Fords 17-8.
Dickinson (-0.5) @ Swarthmore
In what many have touted as the game of the week, we have a team peaking at the right time, and an established juggernaut. The vocal Swarthmore faithful (you know who you are) expect this to be the big moment. The changing of the guard. Frankly, I could see it. Dickinson has been the one hurdle that Swat hasn't gotten over yet, and this year's Dickinson has not been on par in terms of dominance with the 22 and 23 Red Devils. The spread isn't doing you any service here, so I recommend just picking with your gut. On the one hand, this game is being played at Swarthmore. On the other, the Garnet are coming an emotional high and Dickinson is the epitome of consistency. We all thought this would be a close game last year but the Red Devils asserted their dominance from the jump. My brain is telling me this will be a close game, but my gut is telling me Dickinson's midfielders will blow this thing open. Swat should have an advantage at the X, but Dickinson's two-man unit can hang with anybody. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Garnet pick up this massive win, but they might have wait until the playoffs to figure out Webster's squad. Red Devils 14-11.
Muhlenberg @ Gettysburg (-4.5)
The Mules have rattled off a couple of impressive showings, and could use this win to bolster their playoff portfolio. They sit comfortably on the good side of the bubble, and their coaching staff has done a lot with the young team. The Bullets let history repeat itself, but I still think they'll be dangerous in May. They just need somebody else to knock out Swarthmore. Charlie Johnson has provided a spark when needed, rolling back to his left handed hammer with regularity. This line is looking tasty, as the Mules defense offers some value at +4.5. My question is: can the Mules execute high level offensive concepts against a formidable defense? A lot of ME ball being played in Allentown, with simple alley dodges that will not provide quality shots on Saturday. I would love to pick the Mules here, but their offensive gameplan won't translate this week. Bullets 12-8.
WAC @ Salisbury (-11.5)Royal Farms® Game of the Week
The fabled War on the Shore. It would be simply disrespectful to not name this matchup the game of the week. If your D3 lacrosse rivalry has a Wikipedia page, you get the nod. The last time this game was close was 2019, and a lot has changed in Chestertown since then. I've heard rumblings of Nostrant out, and it seems that the lore of the Sho'Men has faded in the eyes of 17 year-olds making their college decisions. Regardless the music will be bumping in both these locker rooms, the eyeblack will be on for the 4th string goalies, and the WAC dads will be slugging Keystone Light on the sidelines. WAC teams of late are used to facing an insurmountable Salisbury team, and will give every ounce of effort until the 2nd quarter when Salisbury is up 12. Gulls 22-6.
Ash()kG wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 9:26 pmDickinson (-0.5) @ Swarthmore
In what many have touted as the game of the week, we have a team peaking at the right time, and an established juggernaut. The vocal Swarthmore faithful (you know who you are) expect this to be the big moment. The changing of the guard. Frankly, I could see it. Dickinson has been the one hurdle that Swat hasn't gotten over yet, and this year's Dickinson has not been on par in terms of dominance with the 22 and 23 Red Devils. The spread isn't doing you any service here, so I recommend just picking with your gut. On the one hand, this game is being played at Swarthmore. On the other, the Garnet are coming an emotional high and Dickinson is the epitome of consistency. We all thought this would be a close game last year but the Red Devils asserted their dominance from the jump. My brain is telling me this will be a close game, but my gut is telling me Dickinson's midfielders will blow this thing open. Swat should have an advantage at the X, but Dickinson's two-man unit can hang with anybody. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Garnet pick up this massive win, but they might have wait until the playoffs to figure out Webster's squad. Red Devils 14-11.
Really like and agree with all of these analyses. The bolded part in particular rings true for the Swat/Dickinson match-up. Swat has gotten away with playing 3 quarters of good lacrosse per game for most of the season, but finally felt like they had some consistency against the Bullets and kept up the level of play against WAC. They seem to have cleaned up the substitution/10-man ride issues that plagued them against Amherst, but how much of that is playing worse competition?
Potential for a really great game, I hope we don't see a similar stumble out of Gress's Geeks this year. I think Swat and Gettysburg picking up regular season wins over Dickinson would also position the conference pretty well to snag two Pool C bids; any other scenario starts to get pretty dicey.
Days like today are what makes the CC a fun conference to be a fan of.
Swat is legit. Sorry I doubted. Hopefully we can see that rematch in the CC finals. Big win for the Mules as well and UC grinding out a win against the dips.
Some great games today. Swat making move to CC top dog & Mules making noise down the stretch with a well fought W over a good gburg team. Gburg is now out of the NCAA tournament unless they win the league imo.
A handful of games left and right now it looks like:
Swat
Devils
Mules
Bulletts
Haverford/ursinus
And shout out to WAC battling it out against the Gulls, game was closer than I expected…well done
Here ye here ye - Garnet are the truth. The last win needed to stop the yapping and doubt and they delivered. What are the implications of this on playoff seeding? I think this locks a playoff bid for Swat but is there also a minimum seed locked up with Gburg losing today too?
Despite looking like they were attempting to throw the game at times due to turnovers on transition, they pulled away. Dickin son never led and if not for 23 turnovers the game would have been a 5-7 point margin. The Red Devils did not look bad. They simply looked less athletic. Swat d covered the settled situation very well with strong slide packages and rotation. Best I have seen them play. Goalie was solid and counted most when it mattered. Offense played average with 7 different players scoring. They showed more patience and not as many forced mistakes. What was hard to watch was ssdm and lsm ball control. Seems some stick handling practice may help. I think the offense would be more effective with changing up the lines as chemistry could be improved. Super impressive journey for this group the last two years. I think a growing fan favorite.
Swarthmore homer here, but trying to take my garnet shade glasses off… Swarthmore had the biggest win in recent history while playing a B- game. Some players on swat played great, FO, goalie, Hardiman and others but by no means did they play their best game. If they play an A+ game at the right time they’re gonna be scary… looking forward to the playoffs.
SixBySix wrote: ↑Wed Apr 10, 2024 11:59 am
WAC has a lot more talent than your upper-half MAC squads. That said, they're bad at the X, don't have an outstanding goalie, and are mediocre man-up and man-down, which is not a good combo for pulling an upset. I'm expecting a comfortable Garnet win, but I was expecting the same last year and that was an OT game. Put me down for a 17-9 final with the visitors winning at least 75% of the face offs.
If Gress isn't able or willing to upgrade the OOC next year, it will be a reasonable criticism. Roanoke being added last year and Amherst this year to me definitely indicates that they are looking to schedule more marquee match-ups, but at the end of the day the other good teams have to agree to play you, too. Swat has only consistently been ranked this year and last year, and with most of these agreements being two-year home-and-home arrangements, it can take a while for the scheduling desirablity to catch up to the national perception.
Swat does not have to change anything. They play multiple top 20 teams every year in conference and play local opponents out of conference, a lot of which have solid programs. Obviously the recipe is working so there is no need to change anything at all. Also, a lot of OOC teams dropped Swat back in the day because they would play them tough when they thought they would be an easy win. Swat isn't doing that, they are honoring the teams they played for years when they were not as strong. It's also Swarthmore, not Gettysburg. Swarthmore is an incredibly hard job to win at and only is successful because they have an unbelievable coaching staff. So any year things can drop off because of the rigorous academic standards and lack of commitment to lacrosse. They don't have the luxury of a Salisbury/CNU/Gettysburg/Dickinson of getting multiple full time assistants, getting any player they want accepted and having athletic director that will do anything to win. So criticizing them for their OOC scheduling is dumb. Instead, people should be praising the incredible job the staff has done to be able to beat programs that should have no business losing to them.
