Expected Goals

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This was originally published in the Sun Oct 15, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The Le Moyne defense proved to be an ironclad unit in 2023, ending the year as the third-ranked defense in the country. Their exceptional performance is evidence of their proficiency in the field, reflected in their opponent-adjusted percentile rankings. The team's shooting percentage was in the 100th percentile, a testament to their unparalleled defensive prowess. The same was true for on-goal shooting percentage, shot-on-goal rate, shooting efficiency, and shots allowed per possession, all of which were in the 100th percentile after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses. Le Moyne's raw overall defensive efficiency was in the 92nd percentile, but after adjusting for the strength of their opponents, they soared to the 99th percentile.

Examining the team's peaks and troughs, the best four-game stretch for the Le Moyne defense occurred between February 25th and March 11th. They emerged victorious in all four games, and their adjusted defensive efficiency was an impressive 13%. However, not all periods were as triumphant. Their worst four-game stretch, despite resulting in 4 victories, saw their adjusted defensive efficiency drop to 27%, relegating them to the 72nd percentile. The primary factor driving this disparity was the turnover rate, which was 39% during their best stretch, compared to 27% in their worst. Creating chaos was crucial for this defense to be at their best.

When investigating games against conference peers and similarly ranked LaxElo teams, a crucial statistical threshold emerged: the assist rate. In games where the opposing offense assisted on more than 41.7% of their goals, Le Moyne's record was a disappointing 2-3. In contrast, in games where the opposing offense assisted on fewer than 41.7% of their goals, Le Moyne boasted a perfect 13-0 record. Again, if they couldn't make the opposing offense uncomfortable, this was a defense that could be beaten. It just didn't happen all that often.

Finally, analyzing how the team's defensive results varied based on the duration of opposing possessions revealed an interesting pattern. Le Moyne was more effective at the start of a possession, with their best performances occurring in possessions lasting less than 20 seconds. However, as the possession continued, they notably became more susceptible, indicating a vulnerability in their defense during prolonged engagements. It's the same story, if you were able to withstand the pressure and probe this defense, you were likely to find some holes to exploit.

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This was originally published in the Thu Oct 5, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The Saint Anselm defense has proven to be a formidable force in the 2023 season. Ranked in the 75th percentile for raw overall defensive efficiency and the 90th percentile after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses, this unit demonstrates an exceptional ability to keep the ball out of their net. In fact, after taking into account the power of the opposing teams, Saint Anselm finished as the 20th ranked defensive unit in the country. Their best skill was in opponent-adjusted shooting percentage, where they ranked 6th nationally.

Despite their impressive rankings, the Saint Anselm defense had their highs and lows throughout the season. Their best stretch was from February 18 to March 8, where they boasted a perfect record with wins against American International, UC Colorado Springs, D'Youville, and Saint Michael's. Their adjusted defensive efficiency during this period was an exceptional 9%, which would be good for the top ranking if extrapolated out to an entire season. Conversely, their roughest patch came between April 15 and 26, where they won only two of four games. Their adjusted defensive efficiency during this period was 30%, landing them in the 48th percentile. The disparity here lay in several areas of defensive performance, particularly in shot-on-goal rate and turnover rate.

Analyzing the 17 games they played against conference peers and similarly ranked LaxElo teams offers another perspective on the Saint Anselm defense. The key statistical threshold in their best performances was shooting percentage. When the opposing offense had a shooting percentage greater than 42.4%, Saint Anselm faltered, going 1-4 and allowing opponents to score on 38% of their possessions. However, when the opposing offense's shooting percentage dropped below 42.4%, Saint Anselm excelled, going 11-1 and allowing an opponent efficiency of just 21%. When opponents were able to create quality shots against this defense, Saint Anselm struggled.

A deeper exploration of the Saint Anselm defense reveals an interesting pattern related to the length of opposing possessions. They perform best in possessions lasting between 40 and 60 seconds, where they only allowed goals on 25.3% of possessions. This is 9.0 percentage points better than the average. However, in possessions lasting between 20 and 40 seconds, they allowed goals on 33.1% of possessions, which is just average. If you are going to attack this defense, it's better to do it early. It wasn't a team that was likely to see a breakdown in communication as possessions wore on.

In conclusion, the Saint Anselm defense has put together an impressive performance throughout the season, despite some challenging periods. Their strength in longer possessions suggests an ability to maintain focus that has contributed to their 20th place ranking nationally.

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This was originally published in the Wed Oct 18, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 season saw Madelyn Grella emerge as a significant contributor for Dominican College. With a usage rate of 15.7%, she was heavily involved in the team's offensive scheme, contributing a sizeable 32.8% of the team's assists. Her skill-based stats were equally impressive, from a 62nd percentile shooting efficiency to an exceptional ball security rating of 90 (out of 100). Her real triumph, however, was the 95th percentile assist rate, demonstrating her ability to contribute considerably to the team's scoring line.

This impressive assist rate not only highlights Grella's passing ability but also her vision and understanding of the game. Few players in the league can match her ability to read the game and deliver precise passes; these traits making her stand out in the Dominican College line-up, and indeed among her peers.

Comparing Grella's career trajectory with similar players gives us some intriguing insights. Amber Feminella, who played for Merrimack in 2018, stands as the closest comparison. Feminella started with a 84th percentile shooting efficiency rating, a 62nd percentile assist-rate, and a 67th percentile ball security rating, putting her overall individual player efficiency in the 92nd percentile. However, Feminella's subsequent performance saw a decline, with her metrics falling to a 47th percentile shooting efficiency rating, a 62nd percentile assist-rate, and a 63rd percentile ball security rating, decreasing her overall individual efficiency to the 57th percentile.

In fact, both of the 2 players who qualified as close comps for Grella saw a similar decline in their performances over time. Their shooting efficiency dropped from the 80th to 66th percentile, ball security from 63rd to 54th percentile, and assist rate from 59th to 56th percentile. This trend indicates that maintaining high levels of performance can be a challenge for players with this profile. The counter-argument is that Grella's assist rate was better than both of these players, and their decline was steepest in their shooting efficiency. That provides some hope that she can avoid the same fate.

Looking at the implications for Dominican College, if Grella can buck this trend and improve her skills, she could be a game-changer for the team. Her already high assist rate and ball security could see Dominican College making significant strides in their offensive effectiveness. However, if she follows the trend of her comparables and regresses, it could have a detrimental impact on the team's offence. Given the likelihood of her role increasing, the development of her skills in a larger role is a key point of interest for the upcoming seasons.

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This was originally published in the Tue Oct 31, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Sara Kaiser's 2023 season with Concordia St. Paul is best described as a mixed bag, with some promising signs and areas for improvement. Kaiser held a 6.6% usage rate, which is relatively moderate and indicates a certain level of trust from the coaching staff. And she took 14% of the team's shots, which suggests that her primary role was as more of shooter/finisher rather than a distributor of the ball.

One shining spot in Kaiser's game was her ball security, which ranked in the 83rd percentile. This ability to protect the ball is a valuable trait, especially in high-pressure situations. Her proficiency in this area suggests a level of composure and decision-making that is crucial for the team's offensive success. The flip side of the coin was a shooting efficiency< for which she rated a 17 (out of 100; it's a Madden-style scale). Still, despite that, her individual efficiency rating rated her as an 86, so she was a very efficiency player overall.

In terms of career projections, two players with similar profiles to Kaiser were identified; of those, Helen Krause of Rockhurst is the closest comparison. Like Kaiser, Krause had a strong individual player efficiency rating (87th percentile), but her shooting efficiency and assist rate were lower than Kaiser's. Interestingly, over the course of Krause's subsequent career, her efficiency declined, with her shooting efficiency dropping to the 76th percentile and her ball security plummeting to the 15th percentile. This downward trend was also seen in the other player compared to Kaiser, with average ball security between the two close comps falling from the 48th to the 12th percentile and assist rate declining from the 87th to the 75th percentile.

These comparisons paint an ominous picture of Kaiser's future development. Historically, players with similar profiles have struggled to maintain their efficiency as they take on larger roles within their teams. If Kaiser is to buck this trend, she will need to focus on improving her shooting efficiency, which currently sits in the 17th percentile, and maintaining her impressive ball security as her usage rate inevitably increases.

Looking at the Concordia St. Paul team as a whole, Kaiser's development could have a significant impact on their fortunes. If she can improve her shooting efficiency and maintain her strong ball security while taking on a larger role, it could lead to a more potent offense. Conversely, if she regresses, the team might struggle to replace her shot volume and ball security, potentially leading to more turnovers and fewer scoring opportunities. As such, Kaiser's progression or regression will be a key storyline to watch going forward.

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This was originally published in the Fri Nov 3, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The East Stroudsburg defense put together an impressive performance this past season, with their statistical rankings reflecting their strength. In terms of raw, unadjusted statistics, East Stroudsburg ranked 3rd nationally in shooting percentage and 1st in on-goal shooting percentage. Their shooting efficiency, a measure that combines both shooting percentage and on-goal percentage, also ranked them 1st nationally. These numbers reflect a defense that was highly effective at challenging and disrupting their opponents' shooting attempts. The offenses that they faced were not worldbeaters as a group, but even after you adjust for their strength, this defense still stands among the elites. Specifically, East Stroudsburg ranked 3rd nationally in opponent-adjusted shooting percentage and 2nd in opponent-adjusted on-goal shooting percentage. It all adds up to the 6th ranked defense nationally.

However, diving deeper into their performance, there were notable variations throughout the season. The best 4-game stretch for the defense, between February 26 and March 15, saw a stellar adjusted defensive efficiency of 18%, placing them in the 98th percentile. This period was marked by a strong turnover rate of 32% and a lower shot-on-goal rate of 80%, which suggests that their ability to create turnovers and limit quality shot opportunities significantly contributed to their success. In contrast, during their worst 4-game stretch, from April 22 to May 2, the team went 2-2 with wins over Shippensburg, Bloomsburg; both losses came against Kutztown. This stretch saw a dip in performance, with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 28% and a slightly higher shot-on-goal rate of 84%.

Analyzing games against conference peers and teams with similar LaxElo rankings, one key statistical threshold emerges as a significant factor in their performance: the opposing offense's shooting percentage. When the opposing offense's shooting percentage exceeded 42.9%, East Stroudsburg's record was 1-3, and they allowed a scoring rate of 28% on opponent possessions. However, when they were able to limit their opponents to a shooting percentage below that threshold, their record was 10-2, and they allowed a much lower opponent efficiency of 18%. This reinforces the idea of a defense that relied on pressure, not to create turnovers, but to force opposing offenses into bad shots that their goalie could eat up.

Another interesting aspect to consider is the duration of opposing possessions. East Stroudsburg's defense was particularly effective in limited transition and very early offense, but as possessions lengthened, especially just after the clear, they weren't as strong. In possessions lasting less than 20 seconds, they allowed goals on only 8.8% of possessions which is much better than the average. However, in possessions lasting between 20 and 40 seconds, they allowed goals on 31.9% of possessions. This is essentially the same as the average defense. Perhaps some aspect of their ability to prevent transition opportunities caused them to be vulnerable once the clear happened? Maybe it's a substitution thing?

Overall, East Stroudsburg's 2023 defensive unit showcased strong performance, drawing on their ability to challenge shooters, create turnovers, and excel in transition defense. Their variation in performance throughout the season highlights the importance of consistency and adaptability in maintaining a top-tier defense.

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This was originally published in the Thu Dec 14, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Elizabeth Tamasitis had a season that showcased both her strengths and areas where she faced challenges on the field for Seton Hill. One of the most notable aspects of Tamasitis's performance was her shooting efficiency, which was in the 31st percentile, indicating room for improvement when it came to capitalizing on scoring opportunities. Despite this, just 35% of her goals were assisted, which means that she was able to create her own offense when needed.

Tamasitis's assist rate was modest, placing her in the 38th percentile. This figure underlines that while she was involved in creating opportunities, there was potential for a more impactful presence in playmaking. Furthermore, her individual player efficiency was in the 53rd percentile, painting the picture of a player who had an average influence on the game's outcome relative to her peers. It's hard to say just from looking at the data, but you wonder whether a more critical eye for when to shoot and when to pass might have a positive impact on her game.

However, not all of Tamasitis's metrics fell into the lower half of the spectrum. She demonstrated competent ball security, with a 64th percentile ranking. Additionally, she had a very respectable ground ball win rate at the 74th percentile, highlighting her ability to contribute to the team's possession numbers.

The contrast between Tamasitis's best and worst stretches of the season was particularly striking. During her peak performance between March 15 and March 25, against Edinboro, Slippery Rock, Gannon, and Mercyhurst, her individual efficiency soared to the 89th percentile. This was supported by a strong 66th percentile shooting efficiency and an impressive 86th percentile in ball security, alongside a solid 62nd percentile assist rate.

Conversely, in her less impactful stretch from April 15 to April 26 against Slippery Rock, Lock Haven, Mercyhurst, and Indiana (PA), Tamasitis's individual efficiency plummeted to the 12th percentile. This downturn was primarily due to a significant drop in shooting efficiency, which fell to the 4th percentile, despite maintaining a 71st percentile in ball security and a 52nd percentile assist rate.

The stark difference between her best and worst performances underscores the impact shooting efficiency had on her game. Again, is it shot quality or is it dealing with opponent pressure? Regardless, the key for her was shooting; she was pretty consistent as a facilitator, even during her more challenging stretches. Such fluctuations, however, did not seem to affect Seton Hill's overall success, as the team managed a perfect 4 - 0 record in both stretches of games.

In summary, Elizabeth Tamasitis's season was a mixed bag of achievements and areas for growth. While she demonstrated the ability to secure the ball and create her own offense, her effectiveness in converting those opportunities into goals was inconsistent. This inconsistency was most evident when comparing her strongest and weakest periods during the season. Despite these individual ups and downs, Seton Hill's performance remained unaffected, indicating that the team was well-rounded and not overly dependent on Tamasitis's contributions.</p>

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This was originally published in the Tue Jan 9, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Bentley's team is gearing up for what appears to be one of the most formidable schedules in the country. The 2024 lineup, while mirroring last year's in overall difficulty, presents fresh challenges with certain teams dropping off and new matchups on the horizon. This balance of competition is crucial, as it aims to prepare the team adequately by facing off against tough opponents, yet also offers chances to grow and develop as a unit.

Our simulation analysis gives a general direction as far as what we can expect from this team against this schedule. With an expected record hovering around 9 wins and 7 losses, the projections suggest Bentley's RPI rating is most likely to land between the 20th and 28th spots. This is a slight dip compared to last year's finish at 20th. Such an outcome suggests that while Bentley remains a solid program, there may be a slight retreat unless they can capitalize on their opportunities and perhaps upset stronger opponents.

When dissecting their schedule, the non-conference strength-of-schedule is notably formidable. In fact, it projects as the toughest in the country, mirroring last year's ranking. This suggests the coaching staff is confident in their team's ability to compete and improve by playing against the best non-conference teams available. The overall strength-of-schedule stands at 10th, indicating that Bentley is not shying away from challenges and is committed to a path that could lead to substantial growth or, conversely, could expose weaknesses. It also means that the real challenge for this team will come prior to conference play, where they should have an easier time of it.

The season's most demanding segment spans from March 2nd to March 16th, where Bentley faces a gauntlet including games at Mercy, against West Chester, at Saint Leo, and at Florida Southern. The LaxElo ratings project a baseline expectation of just 0.9 wins during this period, indicating the team must be at their peak to outperform these projections. Conversely, the stretch from March 30th to April 10th could provide a respite, with matchups versus American International, Franklin Pierce, Saint Rose, and Southern NH. The LaxElo model projects 3.8 Bentley wins during this period.

Comparing this year to last, the continuity in opponents sets a familiar stage, but Bentley must adapt to changes as well. Notably, Molloy joins the fray this season, a team against which Bentley has historically performed well, boasting a 2-0 record in the shot-clock era. The LaxElo model projects a 65.1% win probability for Bentley in this contest. On the flip side, the departure of Le Moyne for the Division I ranks, a team that has historically posed challenges for Bentley with a 0-3 record against them in recent times, is a big part of why the overall schedule strength dropped from last season when it was the 4th toughest.

All in all, as Bentley embarks on the 2024 season, the schedule presents a mix of familiar trials and new opportunities. This balance seems well-calibrated to test Bentley's mettle while providing avenues for progress. The question remains whether they can harness this schedule to continue their upward trajectory or if the weight of such a non-conference competitive lineup will impede their advance. Only the unfolding season will tell if Bentley can turn the challenges of one of the nation's most difficult schedules into a ladder for success.

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